GENERAL COMMENTS:
The market hasn't offered the cattle contracts any support, and with boxed beef prices trending lower and cash cattle likely to keep at steady, if not even weaker prices, the market isn't confident that it will see much support. With Monday being a holiday, the market's export data will be released Friday morning. December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 203.57 points and NASDAQ is down 96.58 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Packers are savvy business players. With last week's cash purchase totaling 86,819 head, their need to buy aggressively in this week's market is minimal for their nearby needs. But with cattle supplies growing more and more thin in the North, packers are buying cattle with time and protecting themselves from having to support the cash cattle market in the weeks ahead. There were quite a few cattle that sold late Wednesday afternoon in Nebraska for delivery during the week of July 19, and there have been some more purchases made Thursday morning with the same delivery schedule. The market's steady to lower trade in the cash market hasn't allowed for the board to rally whatsoever. August live cattle are down $1.07 at $119.52, October live cattle are down $1.10 at $125.60 and December live cattle are down $1.00 at $130.47. The market should see some more cash cattle trade develop before the day's end, but it will most likely just be clean up trade here and there.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.78 ($284.12) and select down $0.99 ($261.09) with a movement of 68 loads (34.57 loads of choice, 10.98 loads of select, 9.51 loads of trim and 13.03 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
The feeder cattle market continues to bow down to technical pressure as the market looks for additional support but keeps coming up empty handed. The live cattle contracts haven't aided in the feeder cattle market's rescue, and the week's cash cattle trade hasn't been anything wildly supportive either. Buyers have been aggressively buying feeders throughout the countryside as cost of gains continue to scale lower, but the resistance looming at $160 on board is a force that the market can't seems to reckon with just yet. August feeders are down $1.50 at $157.50, September feeders are down $1.35 at $160.17 and October feeders are down $1.10 at $162.40.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog market is finding some modest support in Thursday's trade amid the cattle market's weakness. July lean hogs are up $0.92 at $110.07, August lean hogs are up $0.85 at $101.25 and October lean hogs are up $0.52 at $84.25. Even though the hog market has been on a downward quest, hog supplies are still incredibly thin and consumer demand is still strong. Packers look at the number of hogs available on a week-by-week basis and instead of pushing the cash market and pulling hogs ahead of schedule to run at faster speeds, packers are managing the number of hogs that are available and letting the market tread where it's at. When Labor Day nears, packers may work a little harder to run speeds faster and to secure enough hogs to ensure that the food sector has all that it needs, but for now this pace seems to be where the market's comfortable at.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for July 7 is down $0.36 at $109.77, and the actual index for July 6 is down $0.64 at $110.13. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.57 with a weighted average of $109.37, ranging from $105.00 to $115.00 on 2,833 head and a five-day rolling average of $109.10. Pork cutouts total 158.26 loads with 144.45 loads of pork cuts and 13.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.68, $119.42.
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