GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a tough day for the cattle contracts, as the market absorbed Friday's USDA Cattle on Feed report and tried to make sense of the spike in placements all while battling a weaker-toned market throughout the rest of the sector. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex rallied higher as excellent meat demand is helping push the complex higher and higher. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $3, with a weighted average of $65.69 on 4,065 head. March corn was up 4 3/4 cents per bushel, and March soybean meal was up $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 99.13 points, and the NASDAQ was up 86.21 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Much like Dorothy, the Tin Man and the Scarecrow chanted "Lions and tigers bears, oh my!" as they warily skipped down the Yellow Brick Road, feedlots are chanting "Weak through-put and heavier carcass weights and a doubtful cash cattle market, oh my!" as they keep a wary eye on the current cattle market. There's been dark cloud hanging over the live cattle market ever since the dawn of 2022, and cattlemen are growing worried about how the market will fare during its attempt at a spring rally. Thankfully, processing speeds are showing improvement, but just maintaining currentness is a dire concern for feedlots, as they don't want to have just an average rally this spring -- they were hoping for a real chance at driving prices well above $140.
Monday's market traded weaker throughout the day, and February, April and June contracts all either closed below their 100-day moving averages or came extremely close to doing so. February live cattle closed $1.60 lower at $136.32, April live cattle closed $2.02 lower at $140.07, and June live cattle closed $1.72 lower at $135.57. The cash cattle market didn't see any interest, and it's likely that trade holds off until after Wednesday.
Monday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and down 1,000 head from a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.09 ($293.50) and select up $2.46 ($284.79) with a movement of 80 loads (58.51 loads of choice, 9.53 loads of select, 3.45 loads of trim and 8.59 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat weaker. Given that processing speeds still aren't back to full capacity, packers will likely try to push the market lower again this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Following the weaker tone of the cattle complex and the corn market's slightly higher close, the feeder cattle contracts kept with their lower plummet throughout the day. January feeders closed $1.80 lower at $158.47, March feeders closed $2.05 lower at $161.25 and April feeders closed $1.75 lower at $166.37. The market's lower push drove both the January and March contracts to close below the 100-day moving average. At West Point Livestock Auction in West Point, Nebraska, compared to last week, on a run of 2,290 head, feeder steers weighing less than 500 pounds sold $5 to $6 higher, while those weighing more than 500 pounds traded steady to $2 higher. Feeder heifers weighing less than 600 pounds sold steady to $5 higher, and those weighing more than 600 pounds traded $2 to $4 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 1/21/2022: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
Early in Monday's trade, the lean hog contracts were faced with some modest pushback, but as the noon hour approached, the market grew stronger and stronger and, ultimately, the nearby contracts closed higher before the day's end. February lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $86.32, April lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $95.32, and June lean hogs closed $1.17 higher at $105.95. The jump in pork cutout prices continues to help spur on the momentum throughout the futures market and could aid in supporting this rally for a healthy stint of time. The biggest jumps in Monday's pork cutout market were seen in the picnic ham prices (up $7.77) and in the bellies (up $10.71). Pork cutouts total 342.46 loads with 304.65 loads of pork cuts and 37.81 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.37, $95.66. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 455,000 head -- 60,000 head more than a week ago and 34,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/20/2022: up $0.71, $77.51.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Higher. With processing speeds higher than a week ago and pork cutout values still growing stronger -- it wouldn't be surprising to see packers aggressively buying more hogs.
No comments:
Post a Comment