It's a Monday full of higher prices for the entire livestock complex. The cattle market is rallying on the hope that Monday's Cattle Inventory Report shows a reduction in beef cow numbers and a smaller calf crop. This bodes well for cow-calf producers who have cattle to sell as a tight supply of calves to be marketed should drive prices higher amid such excellent demand. March corn is down 9 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 135.22 points and NASDAQ is up 315.65 points.
LIVE CATTLE:The live cattle market has so much to absorb today and throughout this week. Not only will market participants be watching how daily trade transpires, but they'll also be watching for Monday's Cattle Inventory report (specifically the total number of beef cows, and the year's calf crop) along with daily slaughter speeds throughout the entire week. Monday's slaughter is anticipated to be around 117,000 to 118,000 head, with the chance that processing speeds could hit 120,000 head by the week's end. If this happens, then optimism can again flourish as feedlots will work diligently to keep their showlists current. February live cattle are up $1.22 at $139.92, April live cattle are up $1.65 at $144.75 and June live cattle are up $1.50 at $139.50. The live cattle complex is leaning into the new week with optimism as the market expects the Cattle Inventory Report will show a smaller beef cow herd, which should drive prices higher from the grassroot cow calf producers, all the way through the end marketing of fat cattle amid such strong beef demand. The report is expected to show few beef cows, but how many fewer is the big question. The bigger the decrease, the stronger the market's rally could become. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week Southern live deals were marked at $135 to $138, mostly $136 to $137 steady to $1 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. Northern dressed business was marked at $217 to $218, mostly $218, generally steady with the previous week's weighted average basis Nebraska.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,756 head. Of that 79% (63,122 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 21% (16,634 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.04 ($290.38) and select up $1.80 ($285.21) with a movement of 38 loads (20.77 loads of choice, 6.51 loads of select, 7.06 loads of trim and 3.60 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:The feeder cattle market is anxiously waiting to see how the day's inventory report bodes for this year's calf crop and the market is rallying in anticipation that the report will show fewer calves to be marketed, which should in the end deem higher prices for producers. March feeders are up $3.40 at $163.02, April feeders are up $3.15 at $168.45 and May feeders are up $2.87 at $172.80. While the market is fully fixated on the upcoming report, it's only helping boost the market's morale that corn prices are trending lower as the cost of feeding cattle has gone up significantly.
LEAN HOGS:The lean hog market is rallying as cash hog prices are higher and pork cutout values are higher as well. February lean hogs are up $0.42 at $88.35, April feeder are up $0.95 at $95.87 and June lean hogs are up $0.40 at $106.17. Largely, the hog market is rallying upon excellent consumer demand. This helps producers grow a positive outlook as supplies of market ready hogs are only going to grow thinner and thinner -- which you can see is helping boost the contracts from May through August 2022 as they all trade above $100.00.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 1/28/2022 is up $1.54 at $82.15 and the actual index for 1/27/2022 is up $0.86 at $80.61. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.17 with a weighted average of $66.69, ranging from $64.00 to $89.00 on 2,575 head and a five-day rolling average of $65.01. Pork cutouts total 194.94 loads with 169.09 loads of pork cuts and 25.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.27, $99.66.
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