Neither the live cattle nor lean hog contracts are overly thrilled with Thursday's export report, even though the report unveiled a lukewarm finding. With the lag in processing speeds, it's hard for either market to get excited about anything for the time being. March corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 243.77 points and NASDAQ is down 19.94 points.
LIVE CATTLE:Live cattle futures are trading without much excitement thus far Thursday, moving mostly sideways. The cash cattle market isn't finding much more interest, despite only selling a small sampling of cattle. February live cattle are down $0.07 at $137.98, April live cattle are down $0.02 at 4141.87 and June live cattle are down $0.15 at $136.90. While this week's market has been hit-or-miss on support from traders, it's important to keep a long-term perspective. The live cattle complex has taken mostly a defensive position as the market hates seeing feedlots lose currentness, hates seeing cash cattle trade lower and despises the fact that processing speeds are lagging. But 99% of the time, fundamentals end up winning the coin toss and in the next couple of months it's going to be undeniably apparent that supplies are sparse. In the meantime, feedlots and cattle enthusiasts are trying to cling to whatever market position they can hold onto before things become favorable once again.
Beef weekly net export sales of 14,300 metric tons (mt) for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (6,200 mt), Japan (3,900 mt) and Mexico (600 mt).
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.03 ($288.43) and select down $0.38 ($279.34) with a movement of 65 loads (42.98 loads of choice, 9.93 loads of select, 5.19 loads of trim and 6.52 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:Feeder cattle futures are not having a rock 'n roll day as the market merely skips sideways, waiting for a strong signal that would either send the market higher or lower. In the meantime, the live cattle complex isn't lending much support as its contracts are trading lower along with a lower boxed beef market. On the corn front, the corn contracts are trending mildly lower, but given that the complex is still trading around $6.25 per bushel, the feeder cattle contracts aren't comfortable with its price point. March feeders are down $0.50 at $160.30, April feeders are down $0.52 at $165.67 and May feeders are down $0.20 at $169.92.
LEAN HOGS:After rallying aggressively earlier in the week, the lean hog complex is struggling to find any support Thursday. February lean hogs are down $1.12 at $86.90, April lean hogs are down $2.12 at $94.32 and June lean hogs are down $1.60 at $104.87. After such an ambitious rally over the last two weeks, it's not surprising to see the lean hog market stabilizing and catching its breath as the complex looks for added support in its long-term quest. Pork cutout values have pinged higher and lower throughout the week, which hasn't added strong support. And, while the cash market has been mostly supportive, without processing speeds at full capacity, it's hard to get overly excited on the cash front. The market does find some peace in seeing China as a buyer in Thursday's export report.
Pork net export sales of 49,100 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (17,300 mt), China (16,900 mt) and Canada (3,000 mt).
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 1/26/2022 is up $0.55 at $79.75, and the actual index for 1/25/2022 is up $0.75 at $79.20. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $5.83 with a weighted average of $68.64, ranging from $62.00 to $83.00 on 3,578 head and a five-day rolling average of $63.34. Pork cutouts total 130.53 loads with 111.91 loads of pork cuts and 18.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $6.05, $100.65.
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