GENERAL COMMENTS
Friday's market didn't support the cattle complex much, but the lean hog contracts were able to rally through the day's end. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.41 with a weighted average of $78.17 on 6,545 head. May corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 435.02 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle down $1.15, June live cattle down $2.03; March feeder cattle up $1.47, April feeder cattle up $1.63; April lean hogs up $2.90, June lean hogs up $2.15; March corn down $0.21, May corn down $0.23.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex drifted lower through Friday's end as the market made note of steady cash cattle trade and some seasonal resistance in boxed beef prices. One could look at the market's lower close and steady cash cattle trade as a letdown, but in all reality the market's performance throughout the week wasn't subpar. Given that the cash cattle market had traded higher for five-straight consecutive weeks, it's applause worthy that feedlots were able to keep this week's market at least steady. It will be interesting o Monday to see how the cattle bought this week were committed. Selling cattle with time in a market like this doesn't make much sense. Supplies are limited and demand is strong; it's important to keep packers engaged in the market. A little bit of cash cattle trade was reported Friday afternoon, but it was mostly clean up in its nature. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $165, which is steady with last week's market, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $265, which is also steady with last week's weighted average. April live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $164.27, June live cattle closed $1.02 lower at $158.65 and August live cattle closed $0.90 lower at $158.45.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 18,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 634,000 head, 5,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.31 ($284.91) and select down $4.51 ($271.54) with a movement of 96 loads (54.58 loads of choice, 9.77 loads of select, 9.04 loads of trim and 22.77 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $286.48 (down $2.10 from last week) and select cuts averaged $275.93 (down $1.94 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 547 loads.
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With boxed beef prices seeing some seasonal push back, packers could be reluctant to overly support the cash cattle market when box prices are seeing resistance.
FEEDER CATTLE:
As feeder cattle traders watched corn prices trend higher and the live cattle contracts wane lower, the market felt obligated to trade lower. But even with some weaker tones entering the feeder cattle complex late in the week, the market is still mostly maintaining the price points that it ran to early this week, which is an achievement in and of itself. It's expected that the live cattle complex could trade sideways for the next week or so, which could encourage feeders to do the same, but thankfully both feeder cattle and calf demand remains incredibly strong, which will keep traders motivated. March feeders closed $1.60 lower at $191.47, April feeders closed $1.50 lower at $197.65 and May feeders closed $1.90 lower at $203.57. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, throughout the entire state and when compared to last week, feeder steers traded $2.00 to $4.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $1.00 to $4.00 stronger. Stocker cattle sold $5.00 to $7.00 higher with green grass expected to be right around the corner. Steer calves sold $3.00 to $6.00 higher and heifer calves traded steady to $1.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $4.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $1.00 to $3.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 9: up $0.11, $188.83.
LEAN HOGS:
The cattle contracts may have fought pressure through Friday's end, but the lean hog complex gained more momentum as the day traded on. April lean hogs closed $2.37 higher at $87.45, June lean hogs closed $2.32 higher at $102.77 and July lean hogs closed $2.15 higher at $104.90. The market has quietly chopped sideways over the last four to five weeks, so seeing some upside momentum in the lean hog futures is exciting. It's tough to say whether or not the momentum will carry into Monday as demand continues to be one of the market's biggest limiting factors. Pork cutouts totaled 255.48 loads with 237.15 loads of pork cuts and 18.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.59, $87.80. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 13,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 105,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 8: up $0.10, $79.39.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's not likely that cash hog prices are higher on Monday as packers are strategic about their bidding and don't usually show the market much interest on Mondays.
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