The livestock complex endured a painful day throughout Monday's market as traders kept their distance and let the contracts drift lower throughout most of Monday's trade. Come Tuesday, seeing strong fundamental support will be crucial, especially for the lean hog complex given that Tuesday will be too early to see if any cash cattle trade had developed. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $2.77 with a weighted average of $75.4 on 5,640 hogs. May corn closed down 3 3/4 at $6.135 and May soybean meal closed down $6.60 at $479.3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 90.50 at 31,819.14.
LIVE CATTLE:The live cattle complex sits in a teetering position as the market's fundamentals haven't changed, but technical hesitancy is creeping into the marketplace. April live cattle closed $0.73 lower at $163.55, June live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $158.2 and August live cattle closed $0.33 lower at $158.125. The spot April contract closed Monday just barely above the market's 40-day moving average, which could be a tipping point for the contract if prices break below the threshold. Thankfully, showlists this week are lighter and carcass weights are still considerably lighter than a year ago, but traders are going to need to see some strong fundamental support if they're going to hold this market steady or trade it higher. On Friday, the market will see the newest Cattle on Feed report shared, which could give the complex the bullish boost it needs. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. New showlists appear to be somewhat smaller in Texas, but smaller in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week negotiated cash cattle trade took place on Thursday and Friday. Northern dressed cattle traded from $261 to $268.50, but mostly at $265 which was fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $163 to mostly $165, which was also fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 79,854 head. Of that, 75% (59,516 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 25% (20,338 head) were committee for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.05 ($284.86) and select up $2.08 ($273.62) with a movement of 82.67 loads (46.45 loads of choice, 12.70 loads of select, 9.18 loads of trim and 14.34 loads of ground beef).
TUEDSAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With showlists being lighter and there being starkly fewer market-ready cattle available than years past, its likely that feedlots will be able to advance this week's market given where the market sits in regard to its fundamentals.
FEEDER CATTLE:The feeder cattle contracts endured a bumpy day when technical support never came as the live cattle contracts closed lower and corn prices closed mixed. Meanwhile sales throughout the countryside continue to report exceptional demand as buyers are seeing fewer and fewer cattle running through the ring each week. On Friday, the market will see the latest Cattle on Feed report released, which should unveil fewer cattle on feed and lighter placements and could help propel both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts higher again. March feeders closed $0.65 lower at $190.825, April feeders closed $0.58 lower at $197.075 and May feeders closed $1.18 lower at $202.4. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were trading steady to $2.00 higher while feeder heifers were trading just steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 10: down $0.06, $189.77.
LEAN HOGS:The lean hog complex endured some pressure technically like the cattle contracts did throughout Monday's market, but its deferred contracts were still able to close slightly higher. April lean hogs closed $1.23 lower at $86.225, June lean hogs closed $0.18 lower at $102.6 and July lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $104.85. What was extremely impressive to see this afternoon was that pork cutout values closed higher, and not by a dramatic jump in the bellies, but by steady consistent gains throughout the vast majority of all the cuts. Actually, the belly was the only cut to close lower Monday afternoon. Hopefully this is a sign of strengthening consumer demand which could carry through the rest of the week. Monday's hog slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head, 23,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 252.21 loads with 227.15 loads of pork cuts and 25.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.00 at $88.8. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 9: up $0.23, $79.62.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Slightly higher. Slightly higher pork demand could incentivize packers to support the market more on Tuesday.
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