GENERAL COMMENTS
It was a lackluster day for the livestock complex as the futures complex didn't seem to care that the market received supportive export news and opted to close lower regardless. The feeder cattle contracts were the only livestock market to see mild support as corn prices closed lower and which allowed feeders to rally mildly. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.92 with a weighted average of $76.71 on 7,250 hogs. May corn closed down 1 3/4 at $6.318 and May soybean meal closed down $13.30 at $438.3. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 75.14 at 32,105.25.
Thursday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat in freezers was down 3% from last month but up 2% from a year ago. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 6% from the previous month and down 6% from a year ago. Frozen pork supplies were up slightly from last month, but up 9% from a year ago. Stocks of pork bellies were up 1% from a month ago and up 42% from a year ago.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex would have liked to close higher, but the market traded steady to somewhat lower throughout Thursday's market as traders still weren't confident in advancing the market amid a mixed cash cattle complex and outside uncertainty. A few more cash cattle bids developed throughout the day: $164 in Iowa, $265 in Nebraska and $264 dressed in Iowa, but no more trade developed. Feedlots are wishing that they would have waited until later in the week to trade cattle as they could have potentially kept the market steady, if not advance all the prices mildly. Throughout the week, thus far Southern live cattle have traded for $163 which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $264 to $265 which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some more trade should develop ahead of the weekend. April live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $162.15, June live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $155.8 and August live cattle closed $0.28 lower at $155.7. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.
Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that for the week ending March 11 steers averaged 903 pounds, which is 4 pounds heavier than a week ago and 14 pounds heavier than a year ago. Heifers averaged 830 pounds, which was one pound heavier than the week before and 19 pounds heavier than the same week a year ago.
Beef net sales of 18,600 mt for 2023 were up 5% from the previous week and 59% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (10,800 mt), Japan (3,600 mt) and China (1,500 mt).
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.48 ($282.78) and select down $0.93 ($268.89) with a movement of 130.55 loads (81.77 loads of choice, 21.63 loads of select, 11.66 loads of trim and 15.49 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. There's still a chance that some trade develops ahead of Friday's end, but prices will likely remain steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was able to close mostly higher, which was better than both the live cattle and lean hog markets. Traders would have liked to see better support from the live cattle market, but feeders kept their eyes on the corn market's lower tone and powered through Thursday's end. March feeders closed $0.78 higher at $189.025, April feeders closed $0.63 higher at $195. and May feeders closed $0.18 lower at $198.6. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, at their midsession report and when compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers over 500 pounds sold uneven, trading anywhere from $2.00 lower to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 84%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 22: up $0.09, $187.78.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex had another challenging day where the most of its contracts closed lower. Pork cutout values managed to close higher, with a nice jump in picnic prices (up $3.44) and bellies even saw some support as they gained $2.70. The ham continues to be an issue as it closed lower again Thursday -- only mildly so, but lower, nonetheless. Regardless of the pork cutout values slightly higher close and the support export report earlier Thursday morning, the lean hog complex continues to flounder as its market looks for long term support and direction. Next Thursday March 30 the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be shared, which may disclose some hope, but with hog supplies as flush as they seem, it could also unveil more hogs than originally expected. June lean hogs closed $0.03 higher at $89.375, June lean hogs closed $0.03 higher at $89.37 and July lean hogs closed $0.03 lower at $91.375. Pork Cutouts totaled 254.27 loads with 233.98 loads of pork cuts and 20.29 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.44 at $80.3. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 21: down $0.84, $77.83.
Pork net sales of 38,000 mt for 2023 were up 7% from the previous week and 8% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (18,400 mt), Canada (4,800 mt) and Japan (4,400 mt).
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's almost a golden rule that packers rarely show interest in the cash hog market on Fridays when supplies are this flush.
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