Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade $2 to $5 Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex, as live cattle and feeder cattle struggled with the onset of cheaper cash cattle prices. But the lean hog market nearly exploded. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.38 with a weighted average of $71.67 on 6,890 head. July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel, and July soybean meal is up $5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 211.98 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $1.20, June live cattle up $0.95; May feeder cattle down $1.43, August feeders up $0.85; June lean hogs up $5.63, July lean hogs up $4.88; May corn down $0.27, July corn down $0.30.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex struggled Friday, as traders would have liked to trade higher, but with cash cattle prices venturing lower, it wasn't possible. June live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $165.47, August live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $163.77 and October live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $167.62. Come Monday, it will be important to seek out the cash cattle report, which indicates how cash cattle sales were committed for delivery. Feedlots tried to market cattle higher but were simply met with unwillingness from packers to negotiate. Feedlots sold cattle cheaper this past week, but if they also sold cattle into the deferred delivery option, that will be a bitter, bitter pill for the market to swallow and make trading cattle higher in the weeks to come nearly impossible. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle sold for $275 to $285, but mostly at $283 to $285, which is $3 to $5 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $173, which is $2 lower than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 106,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 18,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 620,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 27,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.37 ($311.44) and select down $0.75 ($288.34) with a movement of 87 loads (50.32 loads of choice, 13.08 loads of select, 11.98 loads of trim and 11.45 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $309.30 (up $2.79 from last week) and select cuts averaged $288.34 (down $1.45 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 487 loads.

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Whether packers were able to get cattle bought with time will significantly affect next week's cash market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a mind-boggling day for the feeder cattle complex, as the market had to juggle the mixed messages from both the live cattle/cash cattle market and the corn complex. Corn prices were all over the board Friday, closing anywhere from $0.02 lower to $0.09 higher. And a clearer message wasn't received from the live cattle complex either. Beef demand remains incredibly strong, but cash cattle prices trended $2 to $5 lower this week. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle contracts closed lower, but demand throughout the countryside remains superb, as buyers know that supplies of feeders and calves are only going to grow thinner and thinner as the year progresses. May feeders closed $0.55 lower at $210.97, August feeders closed $0.85 lower at $230.72 and September feeders closed $0.72 lower at $233.80. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded steady to $2 higher, and feeder heifers sold steady to $3 stronger. Steer calves sold mostly steady, but there were some instances of $5 lower. Heifer calves sold $1 to $3 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 56%. The CME feeder cattle index 4/27/2023: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

What a way to round out the week! The lean hog complex simply grew stronger and stronger as the week traded on, and with consistent support from packers in the cash market and better support from consumers, the futures complex seemed to turn over a new leaf and shot higher. June lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $91.70, July lean hogs closed $1.17 higher at $93.67 and August lean hogs closed $1.20 higher at $94.67. The real test of the market's recent advancement will come next week. If the complex can sustain these gains, it's safe to say that a new bottom may have been established. Monitoring pork cutout values will remain inherently important, and any support that the cash hog market can lend will be gravy on top. Pork cutouts totaled 192.98 loads with 167.90 loads of pork cuts and 25.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.51, $81.32. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 450,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 47,000 head. The CME lean hog index 4/26/2023: down $0.02, $71.29.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers tilted their cards this past week, and it was beyond apparent that they were short bought hogs. Now whether they procured enough hogs this past week to meet the needs of their upcoming kills remains unknown, but it's likely they'll have to stay more engaged in the market in the weeks ahead.

Friday MIdday Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Comes Up Short of Expectations

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is a mixed market heading into Friday's noon hour as the live cattle complex is seeing modest support technically, but cash cattle are trading lower. The lean hog market has regained momentum and its market is trading fully higher. July corn is up 2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 218.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Feedlots aimed for higher cash prices this week but weren't met by packers as cash prices have averaged $2.00 to $5.00 lower this week. Why are cash prices lower when demand is still strong and front-end supplies are tight? Week in and week out it seems as though the negotiations between packers and feedlots is a battle, and this week packers won. Now the real question heading into Monday's market is: did packers committee a lot of the cattle they bought this week to the deferred delivery option? If so, that's a kick in the teeth for feedlots that have cattle to market in the upcoming weeks and leaves them with an uphill battle to manage. Thus far this week, Southern live cattle have traded at $173 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $275 to $286, but mostly at $283 to $285, which is $3.00 to $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.06 ($311.13) and select down $0.62 ($288.47) with a movement of 68 loads (39.83 loads of choice, 8.60 loads of select, 9.49 loads of trim and 10.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are in a tough position this morning as the corn complex is trading anywhere from $0.03 lower to $0.06 higher, and the live cattle contracts are trading mixed as well. The combination of mixed technical support amid a cash cattle market that's traded cattle for cheaper prices than last week's weighted averages in both the North and the South -- feeders are taking a cautious approach to the market this Friday. August feeders are down $0.52 at $231.05, September feeders are down $0.42 at $234.10 and October feeders are down $0.35 at $0.35 at $235.70.

LEAN HOGS:

It's been a terrific Friday for the lean hog market as pork cutout values are still seeing support, cash prices are again higher (which is bizarre given that it's a Friday) and the futures market is trading in accordance with the market's positive fundamentals. June lean hogs are up $0.87 at $91.00, July lean hogs are up $0.85 at $93.35 and August lean hogs are up $0.90 at $94.37. The market's support has largely been propelled by stronger interest from packers and by slightly better demand, so long as this trend continues into next week, the market stands an excellent chance at keeping with this upward trend.

The projected lean hog index for April 27 is up $0.20 at $at $71.49, and the actual index for April 26 is down $0.02 at $71.29. Hog prices are again higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.19 with a weighted average of $70.08, ranging from $67.00 to $77.00 on 5,145 head and a five-day rolling average of $67.66. Pork cutouts total 115.78 loads with 99.20 loads of pork cuts and 16.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.15, $80.96.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Strong Cash Hogs May Provide Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are waiting for solid direction from cash cattle trade. Cash trading so far has been light with Nebraska showing 14,005 head traded at $278 to $285 dressed and Iowa with 26,444 traded from $282 to $285. Live trade has been light and not providing solid direction. With cash trade pushed to Friday, it generally bodes well for better cash. Feedlots and packers are going toe-to-toe this week, vying for the upper hand. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.83 and select up $1.15. The bearish aspect of Thursday was poor beef export sales with exports at 9,500 metric tons (MT), down 50% from the previous week and down 28% from the four-week average. High beef prices are definitely having an impact on international demand.

Hog futures held well after the recent strong price increases and a mixed close Thursday. Support Friday should stem from strong cash and higher cutouts. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $2.46. This has not been seen for a long time, especially on a Thursday. This followed on the heels of a gain of $2.51 Wednesday. Cutouts gained $0.44, which should add to the support. Weekly exports sales were a marketing year high at 54,000 MT, up 50% from the previous week and up 47% from the four-week average. Saturday slaughter is projected at 79,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures rejected the lower prices Thursday to close higher in anticipation that cash trade pushed until Friday bodes well for the market.	1)	Some light cash cattle trade has been lower than last week. This may set the stage for cash activity Friday.
2)	Boxed beef prices have been increasing this week, indicating continued strong demand.	2)	The April live cattle contract goes off the board Friday with June becoming the front month and futures pointing to lower price.
3)	Cash hog prices have increased $6.12 over the past three days. That has not been seen for quite some time. Maybe the market has turned a corner.	3)	Cutouts still have not been able to find stability. This indicates demand remains variable.
4)	Higher pork cutouts Thursday should have a positive influence on futures prices Friday.	4)	It may be difficult to see further gains in cash in the current market environment.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Market Waiting for Cash Cattle to Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was an exciting day for most of the livestock complex as the vast majority of the contracts closed higher, and fundamental support was ample. The biggest excitement heading into Friday's market will be watching what the cash cattle market achieves. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $2.46 with a weighted average of $72.05 on 12,303 hogs. July corn closed down 19 1/2 at $5.815 and July soybean meal closed down $0.00 at $427.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 524.29 at 33,826.16.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another strong day for the live cattle market as the futures complex closed higher, boxed beef prices closed higher and, largely, the cash cattle market is going into Friday's trade untested. I absolutely applaud the feedlot managers who are willing to work the market and procure higher prices for their cattle, even if it means waiting until Friday to see any substantial trade develop. Well done cattlemen, well done! A few bids were offered throughout the day, but largely feedlots let them go unanswered as they want more money for their cattle. A light movement of cattle was reported in the North at $283 to $285, which is $3.00 to $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but that was on a small sampling. The South has yet to trade any cattle. April live cattle closed $0.93 higher at $175.45, June live cattle closed $0.63 higher at $165.2 and August live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $163.85. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.83 ($311.07) and select up $1.15 ($289.09) with a movement of 91.84 loads (57.93 loads of choice, 20.51 loads of select, 5.46 loads of trim and 7.94 loads of ground beef).

Beef net sales of 9,500 mt for 2023 were down 50% from the previous week and 28% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (2,400 mt), South Korea (2,200 mt) and Canada (1,600 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending April 15, steers averaged 894 pounds, which is 2 pounds heavier than the previous week and 15 pounds lighter than the same week a year ago. For the same week, heifers averaged 825 pounds, which is 3 pounds less than the week before, but 10 pounds lighter than a year ago.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Feedlots are demanding that their cattle trade higher this week. It's tough telling how much higher they'll be able to move the market, but higher prices are expected at this point.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The corn complex sank $0.14 to $0.19 lower through Thursday's end, which helped prop the feeder cattle contracts higher and allow for a day of nearly stress-free trade. The market is still anxiously awaiting the cash cattle market to trade, but it's a positive sign that feedlots are digging their heels in and not bowing down to the pressures of packers. The stronger the cash cattle market grows, the more spill over support the feeder cattle complex receives. May feeders closed $1.25 higher at $211.52, August feeders closed $0.62 higher at $231.57 and September feeders closed $0.80 stronger at $234.52. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers weighing 700 to 900 pounds were selling $4.00 to $5.00 higher and feeder heifers weighing 700 to 950 pounds were selling steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 92%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 26: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a mostly positive day for the lean hog complex as the market received an extremely supportive export report, saw strong trade in the cash market and pork cutouts even closed higher. Some of the nearby contracts closed slightly lower, but the deferred months were able to keep their gains through the day's end. The cash hog market continues to tell us that packers were short-bought on inventory this week as Thursday marks the third day in a row that packers have supported the cash market. June lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $90.10, July lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $92.50 and August lean hogs closed $0.12 higher at $93.47. Pork Cutouts totaled 274.29 loads with 241.75 loads of pork cuts and 32.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.44 at $78.81. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head, 9,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 25: up $0.11, $71.31.

Pork net sales of 54,000 mt for 2023 -- a marketing-year high -- were up 50% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (32,400 mt), Japan (6,400 mt) and Canada (4,700 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Friday's cash hog market is a gamble. Packers could still need hogs, but then again, they could have bought all the numbers they needed Thursday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Market Waiting for Cash Cattle to Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market was sent mixed messages from Thursday's export-sales report as hogs hit a new marketing-year high, but the cattle complex received lousy support from the export report. That hasn't hindered the live cattle market's ability to rally as prices are still fully higher. July corn is down 17 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 324.23 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The standoff between packers and feedlots continues into Thursday's afternoon as cattle are yet to really trade. With the futures market trading higher and boxed beef prices still strong, feedlots are remaining confident in their quest for higher prices. They clearly understand that front-end supplies of market-ready cattle are thin, and that if they're to make the most out of this bull rally, they've got to work the market while it favors their position. Asking prices in the South are noted at $176 and in the North at $286 plus. There was a thin movement of cattle traded in the North Wednesday afternoon with dressed deals ranging from $275 to $285, and Southern live cattle traded for $171 to $175. Given that only a thin number of cattle sold and that the price spread was so large, Thursday's market is free to demand whatever it sees fit as Wednesday's trade didn't develop any sort of trend. June live cattle are up $0.15 at $164.72, August live cattle are up $0.12 at $163.52 and October live cattle are up $0.15 at $167.57.

Beef net sales of 9,500 mt for 2023 were down 50% from the previous week and 28% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (2,400 mt), South Korea (2,200 mt) and Canada (1,600 mt).

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.49 ($210.73) and select up $2.17 ($290.11) with a movement of 48 loads (24.80 loads of choice, 13.26 loads of select, 4.41 loads of trim and 5.84 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex falling out of bed (down anywhere from $0.12 to $0.18 in the nearby contracts), the feeder cattle contracts are keeping their higher momentum into the day's noon hour. May feeders are up $1.20 at $211.47, August feeders are up $0.67 at $231.62 and September feeders are up $0.87 at $234.60. More than anything, feeders are waiting to see what this week's cash cattle market amounts to as they're hopeful prices can be at least steady.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog market is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour, although the spot June contract is facing some mild pressure. The day's biggest support and surprise came with the export data. With a new marketing-year high, the market was thrilled to be able to market right at 54,000 metric tons abroad. Demand domestically remains finicky, but there has been a slight increase in support this week. June lean hogs are down $0.55 at $89.72, July lean hogs are down $0.15 at $92.37 and August lean hogs are up $0.07 at $93.40.

The projected lean hog index for April 26 is down $0.02 at $71.29, and the actual index for April 25 is up $0.11 at $71.31. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.43 with a weighted average of $68.89, ranging from $66.00 to $75.00 on 5,557 head and a five-day rolling average of $66.95. Pork cutouts total 136.69 loads with 119.58 loads of pork cuts and 17.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.42, $78.79.

Pork net sales of 54,000 mt for 2023 -- a marketing-year high -- were up 50% from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (32,400 mt), Japan (6,400 mt) and Canada (4,700 mt).

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs May See Some Follow Through

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both live and feeder cattle struggled for a while Wednesday but found some support from lower corn prices and the ongoing bullish attitude of traders. There had been some disbelief over the action of the cash market last week. Tightening cattle numbers should continue to support prices unless consumer demand begins to slow. There was some light cash trading activity Wednesday, but not enough to establish any solid levels for the week. Kansas and Texas had a few hundred head traded at $171 to $172 with dressed in Nebraska and Iowa from $281 to $285. Cash activity should increase Thursday as packers will step up to the plate to get cattle on the books. Boxed beef Wednesday was higher with choice up $1.61 and select up $0.32. Feeder cattle remain in demand with auctions continuing to show higher prices. Thursday is the last day to trade April feeder cattle. Weekly export sales will be released Thursday morning, but likely will not have much influence on the market.

Hog futures finally found some footing, at least for Wednesday. June futures have increased $5.20 since last Thursday, April 20. It has been quite some time since we have seen that amount of gain over a short period. The question is whether the movement has been enough to cause further short-covering by the funds that have been holding a large short position. The strength Wednesday was triggered by the aggressive buying of packers in the country with the National Direst Afternoon Hog report showing cash increasing $2.51. It has been a long time since cash has shown that large of an increase. It will be interesting to see if packers remain aggressive Thursday. The usual is that cash prices are weaker on Thursday. Pork cutouts were down slightly with a loss of $0.04. Weekly export sales will be released and will hopefully show strong sales.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle turned higher Wednesday as corn prices weakened and traders remained bullish on the market.	1)	There is potential for cash cattle to trade steady to slightly lower again this week.
2)	Boxed beef prices continue to remain strong, indicating demand continues to hold.	2)	April cattle finish trading Friday and will leave a chart gap below the market. June has two gaps below the market that have a strong chance of being filled.
3)	Hog futures may have moved sufficiently higher, possibly triggering further short-covering by the funds. This could push futures higher Thursday.	3)	Funds may step back up in hog futures and sell the rally as they have been doing for numerous weeks.
4)	Packers needed hogs Wednesday and were willing to pay up for them. Maybe supplies are beginning to tighten slightly.	4)	Packers may not be as aggressive in the cash market the rest of the week, which may limit upside price potential.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Contracts Keep Ambitious Tone

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a revitalizing day for the livestock complex as all three livestock markets closed higher and seemed to regain some much-needed footing in this week's market. Hog prices closed $2.51 higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Report, on 10,661 head and a five-day rolling average of $67.55. No substantial cash cattle trade developed and it's likely that trade holds off until Thursday to really get underway. July corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 271.41 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to keep with its steady, sideways chop through Wednesday's market, although all the contracts did end on a higher note. As the market patiently waits to see what this week's cash cattle trade amounts to, traders are encouraged that largely no cash cattle trade has developed yet and that feedlots are waiting the week out to see what the latter half of the week could bring. Bids of $172 were offered throughout the day in Kansas and dressed bids of $285 were offered in Nebraska. Asking prices are noted at $176 in the South but remain unestablished in the North. Trade will likely develop on Thursday as packers will want to get cattle procured before Friday. June live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $164.57, August live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $163.40 and October live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $167.42. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported six lots (with all lots in Texas), totaling 1,194 head of cattle. One lot containing 135 head sold at $174.50. Opening prices were at $172, high bids were at $172 to $174.50, reserve prices were $174.50 to $175.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.61 ($309.24) and select up $0.32 ($287.94) with a movement of 97 loads (58.14 loads of choice, 13.62 loads of select, 13.44 loads of trim and 12.26 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlots have held out this long, it's likely that they're committed to getting higher prices this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Wednesday's market was the shot of support that the feeder cattle complex desperately needed to regain its upward momentum. Between the $0.05 to $0.06 regression in corn prices, to the higher tone see in the live cattle contracts, feeders felt confident that there was enough support in the market to justify trading higher once again. I'd also like to note that in numerous sale barn reports, many auction reporters are sharing that they can't accurately test all classes of the market as receipts are becoming thinner and thinner. May feeders closed $0.85 higher at $210.27, August feeders closed $1.45 higher at $230.95 and September feeders closed $1.85 higher at $233.72. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 700 to 900 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 600 to 950 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $3.00 lower, and slaughter bulls traded $5.00 to $6.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 95%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 25: up $0.05, $201.31.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a smoking hot day for the lean hog complex as not only did the futures contracts explode before closing, but the market also saw strong demand in the cash market. June lean hogs closed $3.22 higher at $90.27, July lean hogs closed $2.67 higher at $92.52 and August lean hogs closed $2.32 higher at $93.35. It was interesting to see packers as aggressive as they were in the cash market given that they like to play the cash market cautiously when pork cutout values are unstable. Over the last couple weeks, packers have been extremely quiet in the cash market, which may have pressured them into supporting this week's market more than usual. Pork cutout values did close slightly lower, but not enough lower today the market closed disappointedly. Pork cutouts totaled 272.83 loads with 236.78 loads of pork cuts and 36.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.04, $78.37. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Tuesday's slaughter was revised to 470,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 24: up $0.02, $71.18.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have now supported the cash market for two days, it's likely that they've procured the vast majority of the hogs they need and will not support the market as much on Thursday.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Markets Reset and Roll

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the market is seeming to again turn to the market's fundamentals for direction. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, but bids could start to develop later this afternoon. July corn is down 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 14.47 points.

**USDA is experiencing some technical difficulties and no Wednesday morning reports are currently available.**

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mixed heading into Wednesday's noon hour as the nearby contracts are seeing mixed interest and the market's deferred contracts are trading fully higher. The hesitation in the market's nearby contracts stems from not knowing what this week's cash cattle market will amount to yet. Traders would likely be willing to turn the nearby contracts higher, but they're still somewhat hesitant and needing that extra boost of support. June live cattle are up $0.10 at $164.12, August live cattle are down $0.12 at $162.82 and October live cattle are steady at $166.97. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any bids develop yet, and it's likely that the week's business holds off until Thursday at this point. Some bids could surface later Wednesday afternoon, but feedlots would ideally like to get steady to higher prices again this week for their cattle, and they know that in order to do so, they'll have let time pass. Asking prices in the South are noted at $176 plus, but remain unestablished in the North.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held today reported six lots (with all lots in Texas), totaling 1,194 head of cattle. One lot containing 135 head sold at $174.50. Opening prices were at $172, high bids were at $172 to $174.50, reserve prices were $174.50 to $175.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly higher as the market warmly welcomes the support from both the higher trade in the live cattle contracts and the continued weakness in corn prices. Yes, the May and August 2023 contracts are trading slightly lower, but that's simply because traders are keenly watching the cash cattle market and hoping it regains its steam this week. May feeders are down $0.22 at $209.20, August feeders are down $0.15 at $229.35 and September feeders are up $0.05 at $231.92.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is now trending higher as the market nears noon Wednesday. The lean hog market's ability to keep this upward momentum will largely depend on weather or not demand remains somewhat consistent in this week's market. We know that market-ready hog supplies should decrease in the third quarter, but getting there and maintaining profitability remains the issue at hand. June lean hogs are up $0.42 at $87.50, July lean hogs are up $0.42 at $90.35 and August lean hogs are up $0.42 at $91.45.

The projected lean hog index for April 25 is up $0.11 at $71.31 and the actual index for April 24 is up $0.02 at $71.20.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Cautious Over Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Packers will likely try to purchase cattle at steady money or lower again this week. The recent variableness of boxed beef may indicate a slight slowing in demand. Tuesday, boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $0.51 and select down $1.08. Traders need to see something to cause them to support this market in the near term or a further price retracement is possible. We know cattle numbers are lower than last year, which should be supportive if demand remains strong. However, consumer demand needs to remain strong, or prices will slip lower. Some asking prices were posted in the South at $176, but nothing else has been posted. Feeder cattle futures were quite variable with some contracts posting triple-digit losses and some showing minor losses with August closing higher. Total beef in cold storage in March was 10% lower than a year ago and declined 19.3 million pounds from February, totaling 480.9 million pounds.

Hog futures did not follow the pattern of last week but held up well despite lower cutouts Monday. Tuesday, cutouts showed another loss of $0.27, but packers became more aggressive. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.15. That is the most aggressive packers have been over the past few weeks. This may carry over Wednesday as packers want hogs to keep plants full. If packers turn more aggressive for more than only one day per week and cutouts begin to show some support, demand may be turning the corner. Total pork in cold storage for March was 533.9 million pounds, up 10% from a year ago. Bellies increased 6.0 million pounds in March and are 35% above a year ago.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	April live cattle go off the board Friday with June taking over as front-month currently holding a $10.00 discount.	1)	Both live cattle and feeder cattle futures have chart gaps remaining below the market. Gaps generally are filled.
2)	Cattle supplies remain below a year ago, which should keep support under the market. Slaughter weights are lighter, indicating marketings are more than current which could mean less supply than anticipated over the next month or so.	2)	Boxed beef is becoming a bit more variable, which may indicate high prices are beginning to impact demand.
3)	Packers finally needed to be more aggressive Tuesday having to pay more for hogs. Maybe this is the beginning of a change in trend.	3)	Pork cutouts continue to struggle, remaining variable from day to day.
4)	There are some technical studies that indicate a possible price retracement might be near. That coupled with the large fund short futures position could trigger some buying.	4)	Fund traders remain comfortable holding their large short positions which will limit upside price potential.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Let Contracts Drift Lower Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The entire marketplace was pressured Tuesday as external weight bore down on the market and as traders long for something supportive to come along this week. But, even so, all three of the livestock markets closed lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.15 with a weighted average of $67.08 on 10,074 head and a five-day rolling average of $67. July corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel, and July soybean meal is down $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 344.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex chopped sideways throughout the day, seeming unwilling to do much of anything amid the pressures that are looming outside of the cattle complex. Traders will need a clear signal from the market's fundamentals to pull the contracts out of the sluggish slide in which they're currently trading. June live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $164.02, August live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $162.95 and October live cattle closed $0.50 lower at $166.97. A sole bid of $172 was offered by one hopeful packer who was hoping that someone would be nervous and sell cattle early. Thankfully, feedlots weren't keen on the idea of trading cattle on a Tuesday and let the bid grow cold. Asking prices are noted at $176 in the South and are still unestablished in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head -- steady with a week ago but 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.51 ($307.63) and select down $1.08 ($287.62) with a movement of 141 loads (91.15 loads of choice, 29.10 loads of select, 6.65 loads of trim and 14.50 of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlots will be pressured to sell cattle cheaper this week, as packers will try to use the futures market's weakness as leverage against feedlots. But if feedlots can remain focused on the market's true fundamentals, they'll be more likely to fight for steady/higher prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex kept with its downward slide as traders seem fixated on external pressure and the lack of immediate market support. Yes, corn prices closed steady to $0.01 higher, but that's not the reason why the feeder cattle contracts closed lower. Traders will need either strong fundamental backing in the form of higher cash cattle trade or strong support from the live cattle contracts to pull them out of this sluggish lapse. May feeders closed $1.32 lower at $209.42, August feeders closed $0.17 higher at $229.50 and September feeders closed $0.12 lower at $231.87. The CME feeder cattle index 4/24/2023: down $0.98, $201.26.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed with most nearby contracts closing lower while deferred contracts closed slightly higher. It was supportive to see that packers were somewhat in need of hogs, as cash prices did close higher, and packers did buy over 10,000 head in today's cash market. Pork cutout values closed lower but only mildly so, which shouldn't hurt Wednesday's market too badly. The cuts closed mixed across the board with the biggest loss seen in the picnic, as it fell $2.77. But the biggest gain was seen in the butt, as it jumped $3.01. Pork cutouts totaled 403.32 loads with 337.82 loads of pork cuts and 65.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $0.27 at $78.41.

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 8,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 21: down $0.13, $71.18.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Packers needed hogs, which is the reason cash prices jumped slightly. Wednesday's market could see similar demand.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Outside Pressures Drive Livestock Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another frustrating day for the livestock complex as external pressures continue to send the contracts trailing lower in all three of the markets. This doggish tone will likely keep with the contracts through closing. July corn is down 4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 148.23 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to chop sideways as traders remain fearful of the market, seeming unsure of whether or not they can still believe in the market's tremendous fundamental strength or if they should just bow down to the whims of today's technical down pressure. June live cattle are down $0.60 at $163.95, August live cattle are down $0.65 at $162.80 and October live cattle are down $0.55 at $166.92. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any business develop yet as packers are praying that the week's weakness continues into Wednesday and Thursday and that they'll possibly be able to buy cattle at cheaper money again this week. Whether or not feedlots will let this week's hiccup steal the cash cattle market's momentum is still unknown, but the fact does remain that front-end supplies of market ready cattle are thin, and that demand is strong enough to garnish higher cash prices.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.34 ($306.78) and select up $2.01 ($290.71) with a movement of 82 loads (54.74 loads of choice, 11.31 loads of select, 4.09 loads of trim and 11.44 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts would usually be rallying in the wake of cheaper corn prices, but as traders continue to be hounded by pressures, the nearby contracts have yet to stumble into an opportunity where they could grow stronger. It's not all that surprising that the effects of last week's Cattle on Feed report are still negatively affecting the market as traders refuse to look at the report's true findings and instead are only focused on how the actual USDA numbers vary from those of analyst estimates. If the live cattle market is able to trade steady to somewhat higher later this week, then that could give feeders some support, but that will take a major turnaround in the market compared to what's transpiring Tuesday. May feeders are down $1.30 at $209.45, August feeders are down $0.02 at $229.30 and September feeders are up $0.10 at $232.10.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though cash hog prices, midday pork cutout values and the nearby lean hog contracts are continuing to trade lower, surprisingly the deferred lean hog contracts are keeping with their mild ascend. The nearby contracts are continuing to struggle as demand remains a questionable component of Tuesday's market and outside pressures are making it even harder for the livestock contracts to find any technical support. June lean hogs are down $0.27 at $87.07, July lean hogs are down $0.30 at $89.80 and August lean hogs are down $0.32 at $90.90.

The projected lean hog index for April 24 is up $0.02 at $71.20, and the actual index for April 21 is down $0.13 at $71.18. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.58 with a weighted average of $65.47, ranging from $65.00 to $69.00 on 2,986 head and a five-day rolling average of $66.48. Pork cutouts total 213.17 loads with 178.83 loads of pork cuts and 34.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.39, $78.29.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Fundamentals Indicate Price Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened substantially lower in reaction to the Cattle on Feed report, but rejected those lows over time as traders looked at the long-term picture that the current tightness of the market did not change over the weekend or because of the report. On top of that is the disbelief by some that the report was inaccurate relative to what was anticipated. With boxed beef higher in both categories again Monday, it may provide more confidence to traders to buy back into the market. Choice cutouts increased $0.52 with select up $0.90. There is no indication as to the direction of cash this week, which may keep futures mixed until there is better indication of the resolve of either packers or feedlots. Feeder cattle futures closed lower across the board, but did come back from the early lows as the psychology of traders kicked in. The April feeder contract is winding down with the final trading day Thursday.

Hog futures extended the gains of Friday as traders reacted to stronger cutout prices. This is a similar pattern to what happened a week ago with futures higher Friday and Monday only to be slammed back down again. The weakness of cutouts Monday with a loss of $1.75 may lend itself to a similar pattern as the strength or weakness of cutouts is usually traded the following day. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash slightly lower with a loss of $0.09. Packers may not be aggressive Tuesday as they have no need to look very hard in the countryside to find hogs. They continue to purchase them without difficulty.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The rejection of the lows in cattle futures Monday may provide more confidence for traders to buy into the market.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report indicates there may be more animals on-feed and placements than expected. Live cattle futures are already anticipating lower cash through the summer.
2)	Boxed beef was higher in both categories Monday, indicating demand remains strong.	2)	Traders may remain cautious over the cash market this week. Packers were able to hold the line last week and may attempt that again this week.
3)	Hogs cannot go down forever and the strength of the past two days may indicate traders may not want to press the downside much further.	3)	Hog futures have followed a similar pattern to a week ago with two days of strength. That was followed by aggressive selling.
4)	Hog futures remain oversold and need a further price retracement to relieve the oversold technical condition.	4)	The weakness of cutouts yesterday did not provide fundamental support to the market.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Only Focus on Friday's Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another mixed Monday for the livestock complex as the cattle complex stumbled throughout Monday's market thanks to Friday's Cattle on Feed report, but the lean hog market closed higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.09 with a weighted average of $65.93 on 4,795 hogs. July corn closed down 7 3/4 at $6.075 and July soybean meal closed down $6.20 at $437.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 66.44 at 33,875.40.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market closed mostly lower, other than in its immediate contracts (April and June), which were able to sneak by Monday's close with mildly higher ends. More than anything, it was last Friday's Cattle on Feed report that drove the contracts lower Monday as this was the first time that traders had the opportunity to trade the report and its conclusions. While I don't think that traders took the right approach in viewing Friday's report, the contracts still closed lower. April live cattle closed $0.33 higher at $174.3, June live cattle closed $0.03 higher at $164.55 and August live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $163.45. It is refreshing, however, to see that packers only got 18% of last week's negotiated cash cattle sales committed to the market's deferred delivery. The cash cattle market should be able to keep prices steady this week so long as boxed beef demand remains strong. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 73,778 head. Of that, 82% (60,275 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 18% (13,503 head) were committed to the deferred delivery. Last week Southern live cattle sold for $175, which is fully steady in Texas but $1.00 lower in Kansas when compared to the previous week. Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.52 ($307.12) and select up $0.90 ($288.7) with a movement of 69.81 loads (44.35 loads of choice, 11.95 loads of select, 8.32 loads of trim and 5.19 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The cash cattle market has the potential to trade higher again this week, but the effects of last week's COF report could also keep the market from trading higher as well.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with nearby corn prices drifting anywhere from $0.07 to $0.12 lower, the feeder cattle contracts weren't able to close higher as the market was solely fixated on last Friday's Cattle on Feed report and the slight difference that came between the USDA figures and analyst estimates. Friday's Cattle on Feed report painted a clear picture -- placements were higher than expected as Texas and Oklahoma continue to struggle with drought, and as some feeder cattle buyers procured cattle more aggressively early on, as they know supplies are only going to get thinner the further we get into 2023. But even with that fundamental understanding, traders opted to drive the contracts lower as they're approach to looking at the COF report is simply just viewing whether or not the USDA numbers perfectly line up with analyst estimates. April feeders closed $1.23 lower at $202.55, May feeders closed $1.65 lower at $210.75 and August feeders closed $0.55 lower at $229.325. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their midweek session, feeder steers were selling $2.00 to $5.00 higher and feeder heifers were selling steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 41%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 21: down $0.86, $202.24.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to keep its gains through Monday's close, but will the market's technical ambition be enough to sustain the rally through Tuesday without any substantial backing from the fundamentals? I'm concerned that, until we see better pork demand, volatile fluctuations in the market are likely. Nevertheless, the lean hog contracts were able to close higher throughout Monday's market as traders kept with Friday's rally spirit. June lean hogs closed $1.27 higher at $87.35, July lean hogs closed $1.30 higher at $90.10 and August lean hogs closed $1.27 higher at $91.22. Again, pork cutout values closed lower, which was largely influenced by a $6.73 decrease in the belly, and then followed by a $4.28 decrease in the ham. Pork Cutouts totaled 268.23 loads with 205.61 loads of pork cuts and 62.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.75 at $78.68. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000 head, 7,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 20: down $0.10, $71.31.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values continuing to struggle, it's very unlikely that packers will drive cash prices higher given that supplies of market-ready hogs are ample.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle on Feed Report Sends Cattle Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading lower as the market finds Friday's Cattle on Feed report problematic as both on feed numbers and placements where higher than expected, but still lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading higher as its market finds technical support early on but will soon need to see better demand if it's to continue to trade higher. July corn is down 5 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 52.45 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As traders chew the fat off last week's Cattle on Feed report, it's no surprise that the live cattle contracts are trading lower Monday morning as traders negatively react to the report. June live cattle are down $0.45 at $164.07, August live cattle are down $0.60 at $162.95 and October live cattle are down $0.67 at $167.17. Thankfully, even though the futures market is off to a weaker start, seeing that packers didn't have many cattle committed to the deferred delivery option is reassuring. One way that packers will be able to pump the brakes on the cash cattle market is by either slowing down processing speeds, or by procuring more inventory through the deferred delivery option, which limits their need to support the spot cash cattle trade. Last week's bobble in cash cattle prices could have been because the market was anxiously awaiting Friday's Cattle on Feed report. I expect prices to trade steady to somewhat higher this week.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 73,778 head. Of that, 82% (60,275 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 18% (13,503 head) were committed to the deferred delivery. Last week Southern live cattle sold for $175, which is fully steady in Texas but $1.00 lower in Kansas when compared to the previous week. Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288 which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.25 ($306.85) and select up $1.26 ($289.06) with a movement of 28 loads (19.34 loads of choice, 5.69 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 3.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's no surprise that the feeder cattle contracts are trading lower as Monday is trader's first opportunity to trade the news shared in Friday's Cattle on Feed report. The report wasn't earth shattering by any means, but the actual USDA figures fell outside analyst's projections, which bearishly affects the reports as traders seem to only care about how the report differs between anticipated figures and the actual USDA findings. It's likely that the feeder cattle complex trades lower for the next day or two but come Wednesday enough time may have passed to where traders can look beyond Friday's report and again find comfort in the market's fundamentals. May feeders are down $2.15 at $210.25, August feeders are down $1.07 at $228.80 and September feeders are down $1.07 at $231.35.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is keeping with Friday's energized spirit as the market continues to trade higher. June lean hogs are up $1.20 at $87.27, July lean hogs are up $1.25 at $90.05 and August lean hogs are up $1.10 at $91.05. The market is currently receiving ample technical support, but in order for it to continue to trade higher, finding some fundamental support in the form of consistent demand from customers will be essential. But with hog supplies overbearing the market currently, that may be a reality that's not foreseen until the third quarter.

The projected lean hog index for April 21 is down $0.13 at $71.18 and the actual index for April 20 is down $0.10 at $71.31. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $66.05, ranging from $65.00 to $70.00 on 4,570 head and a five-day rolling average of $66.92. Pork cutouts total 130.30 loads with 109.06 loads of pork cuts and 21.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.13, $80.30.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Pressure Likely on Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade was basically done for the week with cattle prices steady to $1.00 lower in the South with dressed cattle in the North trading $2.00 lower. Futures were able to close higher for the week, except for April, which winds down to a close of the contract Friday. The influence on the market Monday will be the Cattle on Feed report. The on-feed numbers on April 1 were 96%, down 4% from a year ago, but higher than the trade expected. The average estimate was for on-feed numbers to be 94.8%. Added to this bearish surprise, placements for March were 99% compared to the average estimate of 94.9%. Marketings in March were 99% and slightly better than the average estimate of 98.8%. Although all categories are lower than a year ago, this is expected to be negative for the market as traders will react to the numbers relative to estimates. Added to this was lower cutouts Friday with choice down $0.39 and select down $0.94. However, with the strength of boxed beef the past two weeks, the decline Friday may not mean much unless weakness continues this week. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds increased their long futures positions by 11,999 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 101,430 contracts. Funds increased their net-long feeder cattle futures positions by 2,441 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 9,941 contracts.

Hog futures found support Friday, closing higher. The strength was likely the result of short-covering into the weekend due to the market being very oversold. Cash struggled again Friday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash down $0.90. The bright spot that may provide some support Monday is that cutouts gained $2.28. Cutouts have now shown an increase for two consecutive days. This could trigger further short-covering Monday as traders are a bit nervous due to the market being oversold. However, strength needs to be consistent or selling will again put pressure on the market. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds reducing their net-short positions by 731 contracts, bringing their net-short positions to 28,557 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle numbers remain lower than a year ago which should keep cattle prices elevated.	1)	Higher than expected on-feed numbers and placements on the Cattle of Feed report may trigger some selling as a reaction to the report.
2)	Funds continue to hold a large net-long futures position as they remain comfortable cattle prices will remain supported.	2)	Both April live cattle and April feeder cattle have chart gaps remaining about $5.00 below the market with only about a week remaining for the contracts.
3)	Stronger pork cutout price for two consecutive days has been a rarity over the past number of weeks. Demand may be turning the corner as consumers may turn to lower priced pork.	3)	Cash hogs continue to struggle to find support. Packers have no need to be aggressive, unless market-ready supplies slow and/or demand picks up.
4)	Funds trimmed their short futures positions slightly. They may not want to press the downside much more due to it being oversold.	4)	Funds continue to hold a large net-short hog-futures position with confidence.

USDA April 1 Cattle on Feed Down 4%

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2023. The inventory was 4% below April 1, 2022, USDA NASS reported on Friday.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, 2023, 4% below a year ago, according to USDA NASS.

The inventory included 7.12 million steers and steer calves, down 6% from the previous year. This group accounted for 61% of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.50 million head, down 2% from 2022.

Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.99 million head, 1% below 2022. Net placements were 1.94 million head. During March, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 390,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 310,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 540,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 517,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 175,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 60,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 1.98 million head, 1% below 2022.

Other disappearance totaled 53,000 head during March, unchanged from 2022.

DTN ANALYSIS

"Friday's Cattle on Feed report will be viewed as neutral to somewhat problematic, as actual USDA figures were not what analysts had projected them to be," said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart. "Both the on-feed and placement data fell either outside or just within the bounds of analysts' estimated range, which could cause traders some grief on Monday.

"The biggest shock of Friday's COF report is the on-feed percentage landing at 96% of a year ago. With heavier placements than originally assumed, a greater percentage of cattle on feed is natural, but it's still not what the market anticipated. Compared to a year ago, the only states with greater year-over-year on-feed inventory were Idaho (up 5%) and Washington (up 13%). Meanwhile, when compared to a month ago, all the following states had greater placements than what they did 30 days ago: California (up 1%), South Dakota (up 2%) and Texas (up 1%).

"Friday's placement data was also startling, as analysts' placement estimates ranged anywhere from 91.5% of a year ago to 99% of a year ago; and Friday's figures came in at the absolute highest end of the spectrum. Compared to a year ago, these are the states that saw year-over-year increases: California (up 6%), South Dakota (up 26%), Texas (up 5%) and Washington (up 8%). Meanwhile, when compared to a month ago, there wasn't any state listed that didn't have greater month-over-month placements -- wow! The weight divisions that saw increases compared to a year ago were calves weighing under 600 pounds (up 10,000 head), and feeders weighing 700 to 799 pounds (up 5,000 head).

"But numbers are useless without any context, so now we must ask ourselves: Does this make any sense? And while I didn't expect Friday's numbers to be as heavy as they were, I can give merit to what the data presents largely because feed supplies are still tight, and most producers haven't had access to green grass just yet. USDA shared on a Daily Livestock Report update, 'Drought conditions have eased a bit, although they still remain problematic in key production areas. In its latest drought update, USDA noted that 41% of cattle in the U.S. were located in drought areas. Last year at this time, 60% of cattle were in drought areas. But the percentage of cattle in areas experiencing extreme drought or worse is still 18% compared to 21% last year.'

"And, secondly, given the sheer momentum the live cattle/feeder cattle market has had over the last month, buyers were eager to rush to sales and procure the cattle they needed for the months ahead. Throughout the first half of this year, the price spread between the May 2023 and August 2023 feeder cattle contracts has ranged anywhere from $10 to $25. Buyers that knew they had access to feed procured feeders wildly in March in an attempt to get ahead of the market before prices got any higher.

"In conclusion, Friday's April 1 Cattle on Feed report wasn't necessarily what the market expected, but it does align with what's developing throughout the countryside along with following some seasonal trends. Monday's market will likely be taken back by the report given that Friday's data surprised the market. But after a day or two of absorbing its content, traders should be able to look beyond this report. I'd call Friday's COF report neutral/somewhat bearish because traders react to where actual USDA numbers fall as opposed to where analysts projected them to be. And whenever there is any discrepancy between the two, traders usually react."

	USDA Actual	Average Estimate	Range
On Feed April 1	96%	94.8%	94.1-95.4%
Placed in March	99%	94.9%	91.5-99.0%
Marketed in March	99%	98.8%	97.2-99.6%

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattlemen Will Chew Over Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as traders remained leery of supporting the live cattle contracts ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report, but both the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts closed higher.

Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.90 with a weighted average of $66.02 on 3,990 hogs. July corn closed down 10 3/4 at $6.153 and July soybean meal closed down $5.10 at $443.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 22.34 at 33,808.96.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle down $0.78, June live cattle up $0.80; April feeder cattle up $0.38, May feeder cattle up $4.50; June lean hogs down $0.80, July lean hogs down $0.85; May corn down $0.03, July corn down $0.21.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was cautious throughout all of Friday's market as traders were leery of supporting the marketplace ahead of seeing what Friday's Cattle on Feed report unveiled. And while the report shared on-feed and placement figures lighter than a year ago, they fell either just within or outside of analyst's projections, which could cause the market some grief on Monday as traders seem to worry about where the actual USDA figures landed as opposed to the estimates more than anything else. No more cash cattle trade has developed as feedlots are hoping that they'll be able to get the market back to trending steady next week. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have mostly sold for $175, which is fully steady in Texas but $1.00 lower in Kansas when compared to a year ago. Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. April live cattle closed $0.13 lower at $173.975, June live cattle closed $0.18 higher at $164.525 and August live cattle closed $0.13 higher at $163.55. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 12,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 622,000 head, 9,000 head more than a week ago and 42,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.39 ($306.6) and select down $0.94 ($287.8) with a movement of 104.13 loads (77.62 loads of choice, 15.01 loads of select, 5.61 loads of trim and 5.89 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $306.51 (up $8.60 from last week) and select cuts averaged $289.79 (up $7.89 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 528 loads.

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The fact remains that front-end supplies of market-ready cattle are tight and prices should be able to remain strong so long as demand remains elevated.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed higher as it saw the corn market's steady to $0.10 decline as a perfect reason to charge through Friday's end. The complex received little support from the live cattle market as live cattle traders were leery of doing much of anything ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report. The report printed lighter on-feed and placement numbers than a year ago, but the data was on the heavy end of the spectrum compared to what analysts had projected. It's likely that Monday's market reacts to the report negatively as traders seem to care more about where the actual USDA figured landed compared to what analysts assumed more than anything else. April feeders closed $1.25 lower at $203.775, May feeders closed $0.05 higher at $212.4 and August feeders closed $0.35 higher at $229.875. The weekly Oklahoma Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded mostly steady. Steer calves traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $2.00 to $6.00 lower, but slaughter bulls remained steady. Feeder cattle supplies over 600 pounds was 60%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 19: down $0.81, $203.10.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex finally received some relief from the week's back-and-forth nature as the futures complex closed higher and pork cutout values also closed higher. It's tough telling whether or not next week's market will continue with this higher trend as so much depends on demand from U.S. consumers and what pork cutout values do. It's somewhat concerning that the day's pork cutout values were largely driven higher by a $5.22 gain in the ham and a $5.24 gain the belly -- both cuts are volatile and could fall lower on Monday, but time will tell. June lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $86.07, July lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $88.80 and August lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $89.95. Pork cutouts totaled 247.76 loads with 211.87 loads of pork cuts and 35.89 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $2.28 at $80.43. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 85,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 19: down $0.16, $71.41.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have been closely monitoring their margins by keeping cash prices low and they'll likely keep with this practice until supplies tighten.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Trade Cautiously Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing mixed interest as both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets trade higher, but the live cattle complex is leery of doing much of anything ahead of Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report. No new cash cattle trade has reported, and at this point it's unlikely that anything develops ahead of the COF report. Some light trade could develop afterwards. July corn is down 13 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 24.19 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As the live cattle market patiently waits for Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, the market is sitting back, seeming to hold its breath even though the report is expected to share neutral to bullish findings. April live cattle are down $1.17 at $172.92, June live cattle are down $0.40 at $163.95 and August live cattle are down $0.35 at $163.07. No new cash cattle trade has developed and it's seeming as if any more trade could be delayed until after the COF report is shared. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $176 plus in the South and $290 in the North. Given that the markets close before the COF report is shared, Friday's report won't likely help Friday's futures gain any support ahead of closing, but if the report is indeed friendly in its nature, then some higher cash cattle sales could develop after the report if packers are still needing cattle.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.22 ($306.77) and select up $0.42 ($289.16) with a movement of 78 loads (66.33 loads of choice, 6.19 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.12 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The nearby feeder cattle contracts are trading slightly lower as traders note the weaker tone throughout the live cattle complex, but the deferred feeder cattle contracts can't help but to rally when corn prices are drifting anywhere from $0.06 to $0.13 lower. May feeders are down $0.50 at $211.85, August feeders are up $0.45 at $229.97 and September feeders are up $0.42 at $232.45. Traders are expecting placements to be lighter again on Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, which should encourage feeder cattle traders as supplies will unavoidably be thinner in the months ahead.

LEAN HOGS:

After testing new lows Thursday afternoon, the lean hog complex is back to trading mildly higher as traders offer the complex somewhat of a bounce back day. It is encouraging that midday pork cutout values are up over $2.00, but that's largely being driven by a $5.92 gain in the ham and a $5.07 gain in the belly. At this point, lean hog traders would love nothing more than for the complex to find a bottom and trade steady until demand picks up and supplies tighten.

The projected lean hog index is unavailable at this time. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 2,585 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $67.19. Pork cutouts total 160.54 loads with 143.13 loads of pork cuts and 17.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.65, $80.80.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Prepare For Cattle on Feed

GENERAL COMMENTS:

April live cattle took a hit Thursday, closing lower, while later contracts rejected early lower prices and closed higher. Northern dressed cattle trading $2.00 lower kept the pressure on the nearby month. There is hope that packers may need to step up Friday to finish purchasing for the week; but the cash trend so far this week is steady to $2.00 lower. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up $1.07 and select down $2.72. Select is now at $306.99, which may begin to affect demand. Weekly exports sales were higher than last week at 19,100 metric tons (mt), but that did not have much impact on the market as the market was under pressure early. Feeder cattle futures had an impressive price swing with May fluctuating in a $4.00 range. Traders bought the break, pushing contracts to new highs. Trading activity may be mixed today as traders prepare for the Cattle on Feed report to be released after the close of trading. On feed numbers on April 1 are estimated at 94.8%. Placements during the month of March at 95.2%. Marketed in March is estimated at 98.9%.

Hog futures opened lower in response to continued cash weakness and lower cutouts Wednesday. Some contracts matched the previous day's contract low while others made new lows. Cash hogs have been lower all week with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a decline of $0.75 Thursday. Packers have not been aggressive but may need to step up a little Friday to finish up purchases for the week. Cutouts were higher with a gain of $1.34. This should have some impact on the market, along with it being a Friday and some short-covering into the weekend. Weekly export sales totaled 36,100 mt and were 33% above last week. That may provide some delayed strength Friday. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 50,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The price reversal in cattle futures was impressive, indicating traders want to buy the break.	1)	Steady to lower cash cattle trade was not what bullish traders wanted to see or expected. Prices may be nearing consumer resistance levels.
2)	Cattle weights are significantly below a year ago with steers six pounds lighter than last week. Cattle continue to be pulled ahead, which may tighten supplies more than expected.	2)	Trading ahead of the Cattle on Feed report may be tempered Friday as traders position themselves ahead of the report. They want to prepare for the unexpected.
3)	Pork cutouts were higher Thursday, which may provide some support to the market Friday.	3)	Cash support remains elusive in the hog market. Hogs remain available, leaving packers unaggressive.
4)	Hog weights are 0.4 pounds below the previous week and 1.6 pounds lighter than a year ago. Marketing remains current.	4)	Bearish traders view any price rallies as a selling opportunity, even though the market is oversold technically. Fundamental support is lacking.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Higher but Cash Cattle Market Remains Uncertain

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another mixed day for the livestock complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets closed higher, yet the cash cattle complex traded a few more cattle in the North for $288. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex plunged lower throughout Thursday's market as demand remains a key concern for the pork complex. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.75 with a weighted average of $66.92 on 4,880 hogs. May corn closed down 8 1/2 at $6.638 and July soybean meal closed down $3.30 at $448.7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 110.39 at 33,786.62.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a mixed day for the live cattle complex as the futures market upheld its end of the bargain and closed higher, but some cash cattle trade developed in the North for $288, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. I'm not convinced that Friday won't still see higher trade as the week's volume of cattle traded has been light this far. More likely than not, Friday's Cattle on Feed report has brought some skepticism into the market, which a normal trading week wouldn't have to worry about. Even though Friday's COF report is anticipated to be neutral/supportive in its nature, the grand unveiling of the report always adds hesitancy to the complex ahead of its reveal. April live cattle closed $1.33 lower at $174.1, June live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $164.35 and August live cattle closed $0.68 higher at $163.425. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago.

Beef net sales of 19,100 mt for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and 47% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (5,500 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and Mexico (2,800 mt).

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending April 8, steers averaged 892 pounds, which is 6 pounds lighter than the previous week and 20 pounds lighter than the same week a year ago. For the same week, heifers averaged 828 pounds, which is 1 pound lighter than a week ago and 12 pounds lighter than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.07 ($306.99) and select down $2.72 ($288.74) with a movement of 100.08 loads (68.06 loads of choice, 17.69 loads of select, 4.28 loads of trim and 10.05 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Yes, cattle have now traded in both regions, but the week's movement is still thin and there's still a chance that the feedlots that are holding out for more money could see higher prices on Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the nearby corn contracts closing $0.08 to $0.10 lower and the live cattle futures contracts able to secure their higher tone through closing, the feeder cattle complex rallied through Thursday's end with little to no trouble. It's amazing to me to continue to watch the bullish nature of the August 2023 through October 2023 contracts. As those contracts either trade above or slightly below $230.00, it's jaw dropping to monitor the spread between the spring 2023 and summer 2023 feeder cattle contracts. For a long time now, traders have taken into account the fact that supplies will be tighter in the second half of the year, but at what point does the market cool down and say: that fact has already been configured into the equation? At this point, no one knows where the top is and it's safe to say this bullish run is teaching everyone a thing or two. April feeders closed $0.35 higher at $205.025, May feeders closed $1.88 higher at $212.35 and August feeders closed $2.75 higher at $229.525. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, at their midsession point, compared to last week, there weren't enough feeder steers sold to truly develop an accurate market trend. But feeder heifers weighing between 600 and 975 pounds sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 19: down $2.32, $203.91.

LEAN HOGS:

Hog prices plunged lower through Thursday's market as traders obviously didn't receive enough fundamental support to sustain prices above the support plane established last week. But now that the complex has traded beneath that level, the next question is: will prices trend sideways or continue to pressure the downside of the market? Time will only tell, but better pork demand would help the scenario no doubt. June lean hogs closed $1.35 lower at $85.07, July lean hogs closed $1.20 lower at $88.15 and August lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $89.37. Pork cutout values did see an increase from Wednesday's close, but that largely stems from $7.22 increase in the belly. Pork Cutouts totaled 287.16 loads with 253.57 loads of pork cuts and 33.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.34 at $78.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 18: down $0.07, $71.57.

Pork net sales of 36,100 mt for 2023 were up 33% from the previous week but down 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,100 mt), Japan (4,600 mt) and Australia (4,200 mt).

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers haven't shown the cash market much interest this week, they'll likely keep with that trend through Friday's market.