GENERAL COMMENTS
June cattle, May feeder cattle and June lean hogs all finished lower Monday with feeder cattle down $2.10, showing the largest loss of the day. After a bullish week of cash cattle trade last week, news of a surprise production cut by OPEC+ raised concerns again about the future of retail demand.
LIVE CATTLE:
June cattle ended down 90 cents at $161.22 Monday, falling back from Friday's new contract high close. Adding to Monday's bearish influences, early showlists were reported to be larger and news that OPEC+ plans to cut production by over 1 million barrels per day starting in May raised concerns about how the economy will handle a cut and bring with it a possibility the Federal Reserve will have to keep raising interest rates to keep price gains limited. USDA's weekly report showed live cattle prices in Kansas averaged $167.05, up $4.06 on the week, while dressed trade in Nebraska was up $5.34 at $270.57.
USDA estimated Monday's cattle slaughter at 124,000, down 1,000 from a week ago and less than expected Monday morning. So far in 2023, total slaughter is down 2.3%, but beef production is down 4.0%, the result of lighter cattle. Choice boxed beef ended up $3.02 Monday at $285.09 and selects were up $3.46 at $274.18, off to a good start, despite Monday's lower futures closes. There were 75 total loads, broken out as 49.46 loads of choice, 11.53 loads of select, 5.17 loads of trimmings and 8.62 loads of ground beef.
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady early Tuesday, staying cautious at the start of the week after Friday's bullish surge.
FEEDER CATTLE:
After a stellar performance last week, gaining $7.70, May feeder cattle fell $2.10 Monday to end at $203.15. Last week's higher cash cattle trade certainly helped revive feeder prices, but Friday's bullish report for old-crop corn prices and Sunday's announcement of an oil production cut by OPEC+, cooled some of that bullish enthusiasm Monday.
More snow was dumped on the Northern Plains over the weekend and another winter storm is expected across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota on Tuesday and Wednesday. The late snows add to the difficulties of raising cattle and are also likely to add to flooding issues in the weeks ahead. In the southwestern Plains, the opposite conditions are true with dry, windy conditions and temperatures in the 80s, creating red flag warnings around the Texas Panhandle. Technically speaking, May feeder cattle remain well-supported with prices still in an uptrend. The latest CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $1.66 at $191.68 for Friday, March 31.
LEAN HOGS:
June lean hogs ended down 20 cents at $91.42 Monday, another quiet session with cash prices under pressure. The bearish parts of Thursday's inventory report revised the Dec. 1 inventory up 1.28 million head and showed hogs above 180 pounds were up 2% from a year ago. April hogs fell another 72 cents to a new contract low of $74.52. With nearby months struggling, it is difficult to be too bullish about hogs' higher deferred prices, even after Thursday's report showed May-May farrowing intentions down 1% from a year ago and June-August farrowing intentions down 3% from a year ago. August lean hogs were up 60 cents at $95.02 Monday.
USDA estimated Monday's slaughter at 485,000, down 1,000 from last week and as expected Monday morning. So far in 2023, the hog slaughter is up 1.7% from a year ago, but that hasn't been enough to accommodate the amount of available hogs. USDA's Daily Direct Hog report showed a national price of negotiated hogs at $72.66 and a market formula price a little higher, at $75.55. USDA's slightly higher carcass value of $78.32 on Monday afternoon was helped primarily by an $8.07 gain in bellies and a $3.82 gain in picnics. CME's most recent lean hog index was projected up 4 cents at $75.50 for Friday, March 31, 2023.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to higher in June hogs with a little help from active slaughter and Monday's slightly higher formula price.
No comments:
Post a Comment