GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a rewarding day for the livestock complex thus far, as strong cash cattle prices have helped both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts trade higher, while the day's excellent export report helped boost hog prices. All in all, it's been a strong Thursday and looks like the contracts could close with this aggressive momentum. May corn is down 7 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 67.94 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
There's something extra invigorating about a rally that's driven by the market's fundamentals. Traders were leery about overly advancing the live cattle market ahead of seeing what this week's cash cattle trade was going to do, but now that prices are firmly higher in both regions, traders wasted no time advancing the contracts early Thursday morning. April live cattle are up $2.37 at $170.77, June live cattle are up $2.35 at $162.65 and August live cattle are up $1.82 at $161.80. Late Wednesday afternoon, there were cattle sold in the North for $275 to $278, but mostly $275 to $277, which is $4.50 to $6.50 higher than last week's weighted average. Wednesday afternoon, Southern live cattle sold for $170, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average in Texas, and $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average in Kansas. Wednesday's strong cash cattle trade has again sparked momentum in Thursday's cash market as more head have sold in Kansas for $172 and in Nebraska for $278 to $280 dressed, and $177 live.
Beef net sales of 13,500 mt for 2023 were up 20% from the previous week and 1% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,900 mt), Japan (2,600 mt) and Canada (1,300 mt).
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.14 ($289.76) and select down $0.77 ($277.39) with a movement of 39 loads (27.27 loads of choice, 6.47 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 5.66 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Traders finally feel comfortable trading higher now that cash cattle have begun to trade and that corn prices are again lower. Traders aggressively pushed the nearby contracts higher at Thursday's start as most of the contracts gapped higher. April feeders are up $2.75 at $200.57, May feeders are up $3.35 at $205.45 and August feeders are up $3.17 at $222.40. At this point, the feeder cattle complex should continue to rally through the end of the day (which is also the end of the week as Friday is closed for the Good Friday holiday). But given how strong the upward momentum is in the cattle complex right now, trade could easily continue to run higher early next week.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is able to trade higher as the market was relieved to find an extremely supportive export report Thursday morning. With a new marketing-year high posted on the export report, traders feel it's appropriate to trade the contracts higher and they're doing so modestly. April lean hogs are up $0.70 at $74.10, June lean hogs are up $0.90 at $89.27 and July lean hogs are up $0.77 at $92.20. The day's strong export report will likely allow hogs to close higher Thursday afternoon, but next week's market will again strive to find solid demand from domestic consumers as well. Pork cutout values are higher Thursday morning, but that's a skewed finding as the belly is printing $15.81 higher.
The projected lean hog index for April 5 is down $0.57 at $73.34, and the actual index for April 4 is down $0.76 at $73.91. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.74 with a weighted average of $70.51, ranging from $65.00 to $74.00 on 4,080 head and a five-day rolling average of $71.67. Pork cutouts total 139.51 loads with 126.10 loads of pork cuts and 13.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.71, $78.27.
Pork net sales of 53,200 mt for 2023 –- a marketing-year high -– were up 75% from the previous week and 69% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (20,200 mt), Mexico (14,300 mt) and Japan (3,800 mt).
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