GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been another breathtaking day for the cattle complex as cash cattle prices Wednesday afternoon jumped $5.00 to $11.00 higher and helped spur on aggressive trade early Thursday morning. The day's export report wasn't overly friendly to either the beef or pork markets, which has sent the lean hog contracts trading lower yet again. May corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 187.87 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It's been a wild day for the live cattle complex as not only did the contracts open higher, but the April and June live cattle contracts gapped open to start the day's market out substantially higher. The futures market continues to be driven by the cash cattle market's strength and, of late, there's been no shortage of cash support. Some of the deferred contracts are seeing a little pushback as the October 2023 through February 2024 live cattle contracts are trading slightly lower, but as traders plunge into the nearby contracts head first, it makes sense that the deferred contracts are receiving less attention. I don't believe that the slight price reduction in deferred prices is a sign of any fundamental change in the market as supplies will still be tight then and demand should remain ample. April live cattle are up $2.22 at $176.50, June live cattle are up $0.60 at $165.45 and August live cattle are up $0.12 at $164.10. Late Wednesday afternoon, there was some cash cattle trade that developed in both regions and prices were wildly higher. Southern cattle were marked at $175, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average and surpasses the previous highs set in 2015. Northern dressed cattle traded for $290 in Nebraska, which is $11.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Thursday, asking prices remain firm at $176 plus in the South and $292 plus in the North. More trade should develop ahead of the week's end.
Beef net sales of 8,700 mt for 2023 were down 36% from the previous week and 43% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt), Japan (2,900 mt) and Mexico (1,200 mt).
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.92 ($300.40) and select up $1.44 ($283.25) with a movement of 49 loads (23.34 loads of choice, 8.52 loads of select, 5.97 loads of trim and 10.72 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is continuing to charge onward and forward as the market is seeing all the support it could have ever wished for. The sheer combination of cheaper corn prices and record-breaking fat cattle prices helps illuminate a bright future for feeder cattle prices. April feeders are up $0.87 at $203.10, May feeders are up $0.62 at $209.20 and August feeders are up $0.85 at $226.60.
LEAN HOGS:
A lousy export report and minimal pork demand has led the lean hog contracts to again trade lower. It was rather disappointing to see only 27,100 mt reported on Thursday morning's export report, which ultimately pressured traders into keeping with their lower trail as demand hasn't been fruitful enough to dictate otherwise. June lean hogs are down $0.95 at $86.60, July lean hogs are down $1.02 at $89.25 and August lean hogs are down $0.85 at $90.42.
The projected lean hog index for April 12 is down $0.30 at $71.95, and the actual index for April 11 is down $0.27 at $72.25. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.67 with a weighted average of $69.33, ranging from $69.00 to $72.00 on 3,177 head and a five-day rolling average of $70.13. Pork cutouts total 160.49 loads with 137.15 loads of pork cuts and 23.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.59, $76.61.
Pork net sales of 27,100 mt for 2023 were down 49% from the previous week and down 31% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (5,400 mt), Mexico (5,300 mt) and China (3,900 mt).
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