Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - An Eerie Calm Developed Across Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Trade Tuesday was generally sluggish with occasional bursts of buying and selling stepping into the market throughout the trading session. Due to the overall lack of trade volume and general lackluster interest in both hog and cattle futures, this occasional surge of activity was able to shift markets higher and lower through the day. Markets closed mostly higher in all markets, with deferred live cattle futures showing the most price support at the end of the session. Gains in grain and feed prices initially put some pressure on feeder cattle futures, but by the end of the day, all nearby feeder cattle contracts inched higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.13 with a weighted average of $69.6 on 7,164 hogs. December corn closed up 1/2 at $4.788 and December soybean meal closed up $4.50 at $431.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 123.91 at 33,052.87.

LIVE CATTLE:

Compared to the rest of the livestock complex, the live cattle market posted the most aggressive gains and losses for the day. Expiring October live cattle futures ended 37 cents lower, while April live cattle contracts led gains in all other livestock markets, posting a 95-cent gain at closing bell. Overall, there was very little direction developing in the market as traders used Halloween as a good reason to remain on the sidelines, maybe preparing for spooky parties to come, since nothing scary really developed during the market session. With traders closing the books on October and waiting for additional technical support during early November, markets remained sluggish. Cash cattle activity remained quiet Tuesday with both sides in little hurry to trade cattle at this point. The overall lack of direction in futures trade at the end of October added even more apathy to the overall cash market. Bids are extremely quiet, while asking prices are hit and miss depending on the area. A few asking prices have been seen in the South at $187 per cwt. The expectation is that any active trade will be pushed to the last half of the week.

October live cattle closed $0.38 lower at $183.75, December live cattle closed $0.30 higher at $183.55 and February live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $184.625. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.10 ($305.18) and select down $1.39 ($279.5) with a movement of 140.04 loads (80.97 loads of choice, 30.43 loads of select, 10.42 loads of trim and 18.22 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2 higher. Little to no direction is seen in cash cattle trade, although asking prices are expected to remain elevated as feeders look for the potential of late week trade developing.

FEEDER CATTLE:

On one hand, given the extreme volatility in feeder cattle futures over the last couple of weeks, a calm, quiet day of the markets may have been a relief. But on the other hand, it is slightly disappointing that follow-through support at the end of the month was not able to focus on continued underlying support of buyers as traders close out the month. Nearby feeder cattle futures have rebounded moderately from recent October lows, but the upward shift in nearby and deferred feeder cattle trade is significantly dwarfed compared to surrounding live cattle and lean hog futures. This creates a near spooky feeling that traders may remain scared of additional large cattle placements through the end of the year, potentially limiting market support for an extended period of time. November feeders closed $0.03 higher at $237.70, January feeders closed $0.33 higher at $237.20 and March feeders closed $0.38 higher at $239.75. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 27: up $0.70, $237.23.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures were the anchor of the livestock complex Tuesday as firm gains developed and held through most of the session. Like other commodity markets, trade remained sluggish with very limited overall activity and a sense of stable direction at the end of the month. But the positive move higher indicates that traders have not yet grown tired or skittish of the uphill price shifts seen in across lean hog trad over the last week. Gains in lean hog trade were also the most consistent Tuesday with markets closing 50 to 75 cents higher, as traders seemingly expected further positive news to help draw additional support in the coming days of November. December lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $71.725, February lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $74.875 and April lean hogs closed $0.53 higher at $80.20. Tuesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 317.39 loads with 280.34 loads of pork cuts and 37.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.38 at $86.48. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 27: down $0.44, $77.51.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Light to moderate pressure in cash hog prices and pork cutout values will point to expected steady to lower packer bids midweek.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Feeder Cattle Futures Shift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Firm pressure developed in feeder cattle trade Tuesday morning with spot November contracts trading nearly $1 per cwt lower in early trade. This has pushed all feeder cattle contracts lower, adding to softness in nearby live cattle contracts as well. It wouldn't be Halloween without some "spooky and scary" market shifts, as traders focus on closing out the month of October. The momentum from gains over the last few days is still not in danger, as Tuesday's end of the month softness appears to be more focused on position squaring than actual long-term price discovery. The weaker tone is likely to hold across cattle markets, especially in feeder cattle trade, but traders are also looking forward to where prices may trend during early November. Lean hog futures on the other hand have posted limited gains early in the session and are trading mostly higher at midday, but the previously weak market structure seen in October is being rebuilt as buyers steadily move back into the complex. December corn is up 2 at $4.803 and December soybean meal is up $4.60 at $431.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 42.21 at 32,886.75.

LIVE CATTLE :

Mixed trade is seen in lightly traded live cattle contracts midday Tuesday. Even though initial gains developed during the morning, the focus on early pressure in feeder cattle trade and very little additional market direction at the end of the month has allowed prices to wander higher and lower within a narrow to moderate range across the live cattle complex. Traders appear to be content with price levels in the current range heading into November, following a strong technical rally seen over the past few trading sessions. Through the end of the week, there will likely be more focus placed on both outside market support as well as short term moves in cash cattle direction and beef values. But for now, traders appear willing to coast through the session, closing out the month of October. Cash cattle markets are extremely quiet Tuesday with bids remaining very hidden in the shadows on Halloween, while asking prices are still very quiet also. A few southern asking prices of $187 per cwt have developed, but the expectation is that trade will be pushed off until the last half of the week. October live cattle are $0.88 lower at $183.25, December live cattle are $0.33 lower at $182.925, February live cattle are $0.30 higher at $184.275.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.83 ($306.45) and select down $0.84 ($280.05) with a movement of 74.00 loads (40.97 loads of choice, 14.41 loads of select, 6.67 loads of trim and 12.67 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Pressure has developed in feeder cattle futures as prices are starting to leak the moderate price gains seen over the last few days. Although the late month bounce in grain trade, increasing feed price levels, is adding some fundamental softness to the feeder cattle complex, end of the month positioning seems to be the focus during morning trade. Although nearby contracts posted losses around $1 per cwt through much of the morning, a midday pullback is helping to moderate price shifts, leaving nearby contracts within a narrowly mixed price range. There is likely to be some additional back and forth shifts through the rest of the Halloween Trading session, but no significant trend is expected to be seen as traders close out the month of October. November feeders are $0.15 lower at $237.525, January feeders are $0.05 lower at $236.825 and March feeders are steady.

LEAN HOGS:

Learn hog futures are quietly traded Tuesday morning with initial gains holding in most contract months, although there is very little sense of direction during the lightly traded last day of October. For the most part, traders are ready to put the sharp market pressure seen in October into the record book and move on to hopefully more positive market conditions in November. The strong rally over the last week is building the basis for underlying technical market support to continue, but there are still questions if fundamental short-term demand growth can break out of the current $9 per cwt price range the market has been hovering in over the last several weeks. December lean hogs are $0.23 higher at $71.4, February lean hogs are $0.20 higher at $74.575 and April lean hogs are $0.20 higher at $79.875.

Hog Prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork Cutouts totaled 183.61 loads with 168.22 loads of pork cuts and 15.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.88 at $88.22.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Take a Breather

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Tuesday is the last trading day for October live cattle with December taking over as the front-month Wednesday. The December contract moved slightly into the gap left after the Cattle on Feed report, but could not close the gap. Later contracts will need to see further strength to close their gaps. The optimism of higher cash this week and the recent strength may accomplish the task, at least in the December contract. There is no indication of cash price this week as trade did not develop and bids or offers were not posted. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.71 and select up $0.77. Feeder cattle have not rebounded as much as live cattle, making an interesting dynamic. Feeder cattle generally are the leaders for market direction. There is a hesitancy over how much strength there will be for cattle through the rest of the year.

Hogs continued the rise that began one week ago. The December contract moved right to the 50% retracement level from the recent high and low. This capped the strength Monday as sell orders may have been resting at that level. Stronger cash finally developed with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $0.66. Pork cutouts were also higher with an increase of $1.46. There could be some contrary trading activity Tuesday as futures increased over the past week with cash and cutout weakness. Now that there is some strength, futures could see some selling pressure.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Chart gaps remain above the live cattle market, which could provide further technical support as traders may push to fill those gaps.	1)	There may be sell orders resting at the close of the December chart gap as technical traders may take profits and become more aggressive sellers.
2)	Overall cattle supplies remain tight and will remain that way for a period. It will take time to rebuild the cattle herd.	2)	Packers will need to see more evidence of strong beef demand before they may become more aggressive in the cash market.
3)	Hogs traded higher in the cash market Monday with cutouts showing strength. This could support further buying interest from traders.	3)	Hog cutouts need to see more consistency of strength before packers will be more aggressive buyers.
4)	Hog futures have been overdone to the downside and are now finding a level of equilibrium. Once that is found, it could provide support to the market as traders may feel more confident moving forward.	4)	December hogs could not push above the 50% retracement level, which could cap the rally for the time being. Technical strength needs to be supported by fundamentals.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Higher Close Creates Market Confidence

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures posted gains in all contract months through cattle and hog trade, but a late-day pullback was evident in most contracts. This caused most contracts to give up triple-digit gains seen at midday as buying support slowed through the end of the trading day.

Given prices posting strong gains at the end of last week, there seems to be some additional upward market moves still available. But given the current price levels, there is still growing concern around the ability for cash values to hold and meat prices to advance following the wild market losses over the last couple of weeks.

December and February live cattle and January feeder cattle futures closed with triple-digit gains, although it is important not to discount the rest of the complex which still posted firm upward support at the end of Monday's trading session. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $0.66 with a weighted average of $70.73 on 2,418 hogs. December corn closed down 2 1/2 at $4.783 and December soybean meal closed down $15.90 at $426.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 511.37 at 32,928.96.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures posted the strongest gains early in the session with most contracts holding triple-digit gains through much of the morning. The ability to aggressively return to the market following the weekend seemed to have turned the page from the sharp losses seen early last week.

At the end of Monday's trading session, only December and February futures remained over $1 per cwt higher, with the rest of the complex moderating due to lack of renewed buyer support. It is important not to put too much stock in a late-day pullback, but there is concern that after a rally of nearly $4 per cwt, a light to moderate pullback could develop at the end of October. Cash cattle markets are quiet Monday with bids and asking prices not yet fully established. Showlists are mixed with increases in Nebraska/Colorado and Kansas and reduced in Texas. It is expected that when asking prices are seen, they will be higher than last week in all areas. The five-area weekly cash cattle average price moved to $184.02 per cwt last week. This is $2.13 per cwt lower than the previous week. Even though Southern trade last week developed late in the week, generally steady, the pressure in Northern trade eroded overall average price levels.

It is likely that active trade will be delayed until the last half of the week. October live cattle closed $0.13 higher at $184.125, December live cattle closed $1.03 higher at $183.25 and February live cattle closed $1.03 higher at $183.975. 

Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.71 ($309.28) and select up $0.77 ($280.89) with a movement of 59.11 loads (25.92 loads of choice, 11.60 loads of select, 10.46 loads of trim and 11.13 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2 higher. Asking prices are undeveloped at this point, but it is expected that the focus on firmer markets will keep feeders from trading early in the week with anything besides moderate gains.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures continue to show moderate support during early week trade, but the overall concern of higher-than-expected cattle placement numbers through the fall has significantly limited trader confidence. Triple-digit gains seen in all nearby contracts during morning trade were quickly eroded, although prices still closed moderately higher in all contract months while January futures etched out a $1 per cwt gain at the closing bell.

The inability to keep pace with recent gains in live cattle contracts seems counterintuitive given the pullback in feed prices over the last couple of trading days. With weather conditions quickly turning toward winter through the northern half of the country, there may be limited movement of cattle in several areas.

November feeders closed $0.78 higher at $237.675, January feeders closed $1.18 higher at $236.875 and March feeders closed $0.80 higher at $239.375. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for October 26: down $3.20, $236.53.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures continue to steadily march higher as spot December contracts have now pushed $5 per cwt from contract lows seen in the last two weeks. The ability to continue to draw buyer support to the market is well-needed in the lean hog futures contracts, although there is still underlying concern about how much upward momentum the market will have before running headfirst into strong resistance.

The inability to see consistent gains in pork cutout values or cash hog prices over the last week has caused traders to become more hesitant. Although all contracts posted moderate to firm gains, the pullback from session highs seen early in the trading day is slightly disappointing.

December lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $71.175, February lean hogs closed $0.88 higher at $74.375 and April lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $79.675. Monday's hog slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 0 head less than a year ago. Pork cutouts totaled 228.39 loads with 192.96 loads of pork cuts and 35.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.46 at $87.86. The CME Lean Hog Index for October 26: down $0.46, $77.95.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Firmness in lean hog futures combined with early-week cash hog support is expected to improve early bids on Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Gains Redevelop in Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Higher price levels through livestock trade helped to confirm end of week buyer support seen Friday. The potential for livestock futures to continue to move away from recent market lows and gain much needed momentum through the end of the month is helping to not only support price levels in each complex, but also draw additional volume back into the market. Spot month October live cattle contracts are the only contract posting losses, although this pressure is focused more on limited volume late in the contract life rather than market direction. Traders are also encouraged by the early week bounce in stock markets, although light to moderate softness in other outside markets is keeping traders from becoming overly bullish this early in the week. December corn is down 3/4 at $4.8 and December soybean meal is down $10.40 at $432. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 363.28 at 32,780.87.

LIVE CATTLE :

Live cattle futures have continued to move higher in all but spot month October contracts. The pressure in the lightly traded and soon to expire October contracts has continued to push prices lower during Monday morning, falling to $1.25 per cwt at midday. The rest of the complex is holding gains of $1 or greater with traders focusing on the strength across the complex and redevelopment of technical support late last week.

The market remains generally undersold, but to continue to record strong triple-digit gains day after day is expected to become a challenge without the help of fundamental firmness coming from gains in beef values and higher cash cattle trade during the week.

Cash cattle markets remain quiet as expected Monday morning with show list distribution and inventory taking the main focus Monday. Last week's trade was a mixed event with Northern trade trickling in through the week with trades seen every day of the week.

Southern business took advantage of the market rally, waiting until Thursday and Friday to develop. Cash prices in the North were generally $4 per cwt lower than the previous week, mostly $290 per cwt, while Southern trade at mostly $183 per cwt, steady with the previous week. The early support in futures trade and potential for strength in beef values could help to solidify higher asking prices. October live cattle are $1.25 lower at $182.75, December live cattle are $1.03 higher at $183.25, February live cattle are $1.38 higher at $184.325.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.97 ($309.54) and select up $0.11 ($280.23) with a movement of 33.00 loads (10.55 loads of choice, 6.67 loads of select, 8.74 loads of trim and 7.41 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Triple-digit gains have redeveloped in feeder cattle futures Monday morning with traders focusing on defending last week's lows, and steadily but firmly moving back into the complex following the recent market tumble. November through March futures are holding triple-digit gains early in the week, although the rest of the complex remains supported, but with less buyer support and price gains able to move into the market. So far, nearby futures have rallied $3 per cwt off recent lows, but there will likely need to be more consistent buyer support through the end of October and early November to regain full confidence that buyers are not focusing on short-term market moves. November feeders are $1.50 higher at $238.4, January feeders are $1.65 higher at $237.35 and March feeders are $1.28 higher at $239.85.

LEAN HOGS:

Firm gains have also developed in lean hog futures trade Monday. The steady march higher in lean hog prices each day last week is not only helping to move contracts well off contract lows, but it is helping to steadily build confidence from a technical and fundamental standpoint, allowing traders to reenter the market who, over the past month, have been extremely hesitant to buy. Spot December contracts are currently $2 per cwt below October highs, which could act as a significant resistance point for further gains without strong fundamental support. News focusing on the recent price decline in the Chinese live hog prices may limit underlying softness in the weeks and months to head as exports could be further damaged by eroding prices and heavy supplies of China pork. Current live hog prices are reported at the lowest price since June, creating concern that additional weakness may further develop in the near future. December lean hogs are $1.35 higher at $71.825, February lean hogs are $1.38 higher at $74.875 and April lean hogs are $1.25 higher at $80.175.

Hog Prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork Cutouts totaled 118.44 loads with 98.76 loads of pork cuts and 19.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.13 at $86.34.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trade to Begin Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle showed a bit more strength by the end of the week compared to earlier in the week. This provided traders with more confidence to buy into the market. Southern trade closed the week about steady with the previous week, as packers needed to step up to procure needed head. Northern dressed cattle average about $4 lower. It was a victory considering the recent fall of futures. The December live cattle contract regained 50% of its loss over the past two weeks. The October live cattle contract goes off the board Tuesday with December then being the lead month. Traders may be more cautious to begin the week as they assess beef demand and show lists. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.72 and select up $0.43. Feeder cattle did not see quite the strength, which is a little unusual as feeder cattle generally lead the charge. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 20,714 live cattle contracts, bringing their net-long position to 62,703 contracts. Funds sold 3,104 feeder cattle futures, bringing their net-long futures positions to 3,336 contracts.

Hog futures concluded the third day of strong gains Friday, moving higher based more on technical factors rather than fundamentals. Cash and cutouts had been struggling much of the week with the National Direct Afternoon report down $0.63 with the weighted average just barely holding above $70.00, closing at $70.07. Cutout did show some strength on Friday with a gain of $0.67. Packers may begin the week more aggressively as they may want to purchase hogs early unless they see plentiful market-ready hogs available. Technical buying may have run its course with short-covering having run for three days. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds selling 9,497 futures contracts, moving to a net-short position of 6,551 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle may move to close the chart gap that was left after the Cattle on Feed report. Stronger cash would allow traders to accomplish that purpose.	1)	Live cattle futures may have run out of strong buying interest as contracts could not hold the highs Friday. Traders may now position themselves for the end of the month.
2)	Traders are optimistic cattle prices will remain high as supplies continue to remain light.	2)	Traders may be quick to sell into the cattle market on any fundamental weakness.
3)	Hog futures had a strong price correction, which could indicate a bottom has been set and futures will find support at a higher level.	3)	The recent price strength in hogs has not been supported by cash or cutouts but is technical in nature as short-covering took place. This may have run its course.
4)	Hog futures close above the 20-day moving average, which will be considered as support for technical traders.	4)	Higher hog weights mean fewer hogs are required by packers to receive the tonnage needed to supply demand. This may limit upside potential.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Record Impressive Gains

GENERAL COMMENTS:

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October Live cattle off $0.28, December Live cattle off $2.40; November Feeder cattle off $4.92, January Feeder cattle off $7.35; December Lean hogs up $4.48, December Lean hogs up $4.48; December Pork cutout up $2.85, December Pork cutout up $2.85. Live cattle futures led the complex higher with nearby contracts holding gains at or above $3 per cwt through much of the session. Limited trade volume at the end of the session seemed to slightly erode bullish market activity, although December contracts still posted a $2.90 per cwt gain at the closing bell. The bearish cloud that has hovered over the cattle complex all week seems to have been partially lifted, allowing buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines to actively move back into the market Friday. Feeder cattle futures posted moderate gains but are much less aggressive at this point. Triple-digit gains in lean hog futures not only helped to rekindle market support, but also created consistent buying interest through the last three trading sessions. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.63 with a weighted average of $70.07 on 3,665 hogs. December corn closed up 1 1/2 at $4.808 and December soybean meal closed up $12.90 at $442.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 366.71 at 32,417.59.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures led the complex higher Friday with gains of $3 per cwt seen in nearby contracts early in the session. December contracts closed $2.90 per cwt higher helping to bring additional widespread support to the entire livestock complex. This renewed buyer interest in the complex was instrumental in drawing buyers back into an oversold market complex. With all nearby live cattle contracts not trading above $180 per cwt, there is expected to be early week focus on potential longer-term support that may develop at the end of October. Cash cattle trade in the South became more available Friday with prices at $183 to $185 per cwt by the end of the week. This late week trade activity is posting prices fully steady with last week's price levels. Trade in the North developed in earnest over the last couple of days with a range from $287 to $292, mostly $290 per cwt. These levels are $4 per cwt lower than last week. The aggressive rally in futures trade Friday made waiting until the end of the week worth it for those that were able to hold out. October live cattle closed $2.30 higher at $184.00, December live cattle closed $2.90 higher at $182.225 and February live cattle closed $2.55 higher at $182.95. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 16,000 head, 102,000 head less than a week ago and 107,000 head less than a year ago. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Weekly slaughter is 620,000 head. Saturday expected slaughter is 16,000 head. Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.72 ($307.57) and select up $0.43 ($280.12) with a movement of 134.46 loads (69.49 loads of choice, 37.40 loads of select, 15.03 loads of trim and 12.54 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Early trade next week is expected to remain subdued with the focus Monday on show list distribution and inventory taking.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Continued support developed Friday in all feeder cattle futures trade, although the support early in the session slowed significantly near the end of the day and traders started adjusting positions for the weekend. The ability to hold gains seen at the end of the week will be the focus as traders return to the market Monday morning. Sharp gains Friday in live cattle futures helped to reduce overall concerns of further price pressure. The strong gains in the soy complex at the end of the week had less of an impact on feeder cattle gains than some would have figured, but the market still remains vulnerable at current price levels. November feeders closed $0.40 higher at $236.9, January feeders closed $0.63 higher at $235.7 and March feeders closed $0.83 higher at $238.575. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for October 25: down $0.89, $239.73.

LEAN HOGS:

Strong moves higher in lean hog futures developed Friday with December contracts closing above $70 per cwt at the end of the week. This move helped to secure price levels well above contract lows seen earlier in the week. This underlying support in all lean hog futures contracts is helping to bring additional technical and fundamental buyer support back into the complex. Although it may be challenging to continue this upward pace through the next couple of weeks, traders are focusing on established market lows. The underlying support in nearby lean hog futures is also expected to add support to pork values and cash hog prices in the days and weeks to come. December lean hogs closed $1.85 higher at $70.475, February lean hogs closed $1.68 higher at $73.50 and April lean hogs closed $1.28 higher at $78.925. Friday's hog slaughter is estimated at 191,000 head, 288,000 head less than a week ago and 294,000 head less than a year ago. Weekly slaughter totals are at 2.42 million head. Saturday slaughter is expected at 191,000 head. Pork Cutouts totaled 276.64 loads with 235.04 loads of pork cuts and 41.60 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.67 at $86.4. The CME Lean Hog Index for October 25: down $0.22, $78.19.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Traders will continue to closely monitor a combination of futures trade moves and pork values early in the week. Steady to firm cash hog prices are expected heading into next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle Futures Rally Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

End-of-week positioning appears to be the main driver Friday morning with moderate-to-strong gains seen in all livestock futures. Live cattle trade is leading with December contracts setting the pace with gains over $3 per cwt. Feeder cattle futures have regained previous day losses, as the overall tone of the market still remains unsettled but showing positive signs at the end of the week. The ability to hold current gains in lean hog futures is also likely to create momentum through the end of the month, although the market still remains well below last week's price levels but continues to bounce off recent contract lows. December corn is up 1 1/2 at $4.808 and December soybean meal is up $17.50 at $447. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 143.07 at 32,641.23.

LIVE CATTLE :

Active morning buying has flooded the live cattle complex with triple-digit gains across the entire complex. December contracts are leading with gains over $3.50 per cwt at midday. The lack of solid buyer support over the week has sparked some late-week positioning, which left the market ripe for a rally following the oversold status. Given the wide market swings and downward pressure following last week's report, the technicals have shown signs of improvement; but until Friday morning there has not been enough strong interest to make a significant change in market prices. Beef market fundamentals still remain unsettled, but the ability to move prices from recent lows through the end of October will go a long way to bring additional interest back into nearby and deferred contract months. Cash cattle trade is starting to see light Friday trade in the South at $185 per cwt. This is even with last week, The sharp rally in live cattle futures during the morning has helped solidify cash markets. It is uncertain just how much additional trade will be seen in the North, but the higher bids available may help to move cattle still on showlists before the end of the day. Asking prices on cattle still left to sell are reported at $185 and higher in the South and $292 and higher in the North. October live cattle are $2.60 higher at $184.3, December live cattle are $3.65 higher at $182.975, February live cattle are $3.20 higher at $183.60.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.27 ($308.12) and select up $0.44 ($280.13) with a movement of 97.00 loads (52.15 loads of choice, 28.59 loads of select, 8.33 loads of trim and 8.24 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Firm gains in feeder cattle futures are supported by the morning rally developing across live cattle trade. But trade volume still remains moderate at best with nearby contracts able to etch out gains of $1 per cwt and higher, with light to moderate gains in deferred contract months. The pullback in price levels Thursday has created some uncertainty about active short-term support being able to regain the losses seen over the last two weeks. Even with the end of the week bounce higher, based on weekly charts, markets remain at four-month lows. The ability to keep feed prices within a stable range and regain support in beef values is likely to help rekindle moderate buyer support in the upcoming weeks, but traders remain cautious concerning the number of calves left to place into feedlots through the end of the year. November feeders are $0.63 higher at $237.125, January feeders are $0.53 higher at $235.6 and March feeders are $0.40 higher at $238.15.

LEAN HOGS:

Spot-month December lean hog futures are holding firm gains of $1.25 per cwt higher, with price levels nearing the $70 per cwt threshold for the first time in two weeks. The lean hog futures complex is now on a three-day winning streak with prices moving nearly $4 per cwt higher since establishing contract lows early in the week. The potential to spark additional technical buyer support through the end October is not only likely to bring more support to the futures trade, but also spark additional interest in cash hog and pork value price levels heading into the month of November. December lean hogs are $1.28 higher at $69.9, February lean hogs are $1.25 higher at $73.075 and April lean hogs are $0.90 higher at $78.55.

Hog prices are unreported at this time due to packer submission issues. Pork cutouts totaled 180.68 loads with 154.82 loads of pork cuts and 25.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $3.34 at $85.21.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Struggle Ahead of Weekend

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Lower cash cattle trade did not provide support to cattle futures Thursday. In early trading, there was hope that maybe packers would need to bid up to obtain cattle, but feedlots decided to let them go rather than hold on another week for likely no benefit. Northern dressed cattle traded at $290, where they have been so far this week, and $3 to $4 lower. Southern cattle traded at $183 and $1 to $2 lower. Not much change is expected Friday as the rest of the trades should fall in line with the week. Boxed beef prices declined with choice down $0.65 and select down $1.97. Weekly export sales totaled 17,400 mt increasing from the previous week. September's inventory of beef in cold storage totaled 420.2 million pounds, which was 20% below a year ago but supply increased 6% from August. Feeder cattle suffered triple-digit losses as the bloom has come out of the market. It may be difficult for feeder cattle futures to regain losses anytime soon.

Hogs had a second day of gains defying the weakness of cash and cutouts much of the week. The December contract was on a roller coaster, moving both higher and lower than later contracts and closing $1.12 higher, right in line with February. Futures may not be able to hold Friday as both cash and cutouts were again lower and there may be liquidation ahead of the weekend. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.20 while cutouts were down $1.86. Weekly export sales totaled 28,200 metric tons (mt), down 8% from the previous week. Total pork in cold storage for September was 462.8 million pounds, down 14% from a year ago. Bellies totaled 29.6 million pounds, down 19% from a year ago. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 186,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle have been holding the past three days, which could indicate support is developing and keeping prices from falling further for the time being.	1)	Cattle futures have been unable to rebound after the large sell-off. Bullish traders do not have enough confidence to buy back into the market aggressively.
2)	A large amount of premium has been removed from live cattle futures in later contracts. Traders may begin to put some of that premium back into the market.	2)	Lower cash cattle trade this week will keep pressure on the market. Packers will take advantage of the weakness and lower bids next week.
3)	Hog futures have had two days of strength which may indicate traders are willing to step back into the market at the current low price. After all, low prices cure low prices.	3)	Cash and cutouts have been lower most of the week with hog futures moving in the opposite direction the past two days. Liquidation may develop ahead of the weekend.
4)	Lower pork inventory indicates demand has been utilizing current production and then some. This may tighten supply as time goes on.	4)	Current fundamentals do not suggest a sustained rally in hog futures. Traders will limit trading to short-term positions only to scalp the market for a profit if possible.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Soften

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Lean hog futures were the bright spot of the livestock market Thursday with buyers stepping into the complex for the second consecutive trading session. Although buyer interest initially developed in cattle trade, the lack of follow-through buyer interest and remaining concerns of how the larger-than-expected supplies will impact long-term market direction quickly eroded most support. Although spot month live cattle and feeder cattle contracts still closed higher, the weakness in nearly all other contract months led to additional concerns that prices may not quickly move away from recent lows. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.20 with a weighted average of $70.7 on 2,702 hogs. December corn closed down 3/4 at $4.793 and December soybean meal closed up $0.30 at $429.5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 251.63 at 32,784.30.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures showed initial signs of follow-through buying as trade activity started higher during morning trade, but this support was limited as initial buy orders quickly evaporated, leaving way for moderate to firm pressure to develop in all but spot month contracts. October futures closed with limited direction and light volume, but the most significant pressure was seen in February contract months as traders are focusing on continued concerns of longer-term supply growth in the market. Cash cattle trade continues to trickle in through the week with light trade reported across the North. Overall trade so far this week seems to be mostly $290 in the North, which is $4 per cwt lower, and $180 to $182 per cwt lower, which is generally $3 to $5 per cwt lower. It is likely that more trade, especially in the south, will develop on Friday before packers call it a week. October live cattle closed $0.58 higher at $181.7, December live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $179.325 and February live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $180.4. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.65 ($306.85) and select down $1.97 ($279.69) with a movement of 150.37 loads (91.08 loads of choice, 30.64 loads of select, 11.66 loads of trim and 16.99 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Trade Friday that does develop is expected to remain steady with early week activity. This is generally $3 to $5 per cwt lower than last week's levels.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures led the complex lower Thursday despite pressure in grain trade and previous support seen across the cattle market. Although trade started rather supportive across the entire complex, prices turned lower in all but spot month contracts. Although feeder cattle futures backed away from midday lows, most contracts posted losses around $1.50 per cwt, which created additional short-term concern about the ability to attract additional buyer support in the near future. Traders remain emotionally driven by supply fears as well as overall economy concerns. This could keep prices volatile in the near future. October feeders closed $0.58 higher at $240.55, November feeders closed $1.55 lower at $236.5 and January feeders closed $1.48 lower at $235.075. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for October 24: down $1.01, $240.62.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures rallied higher once again with triple-digit gains seen in nearby contracts. The focus was placed on buyers gaining more confidence that market lows may have already been recorded following the sharp push lower over the last couple of weeks. This could continue to lead to further price support in futures trade, but traders are starting to look toward pork values to spark additional firm direction before aggressively moving into a higher trading range. December lean hogs closed $1.13 higher at $68.625, February lean hogs closed $1.13 higher at $71.825 and April lean hogs closed $0.88 higher at $77.65. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 3,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 302.19 loads with 276.62 loads of pork cuts and 25.57 loads of trim.

Pork cutout values are down $1.86 at $85.73. The CME Lean Hog Index for October 24: down $0.26, $78.41.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 Lower. Softness in cash and meat values toward the end of the week is limiting the potential to move cash hog prices higher Friday morning. Packer interest should still remain strong, although the ability to gain hogs at steady to lower prices may keep market support limited.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Gains Redevelop in Lean Hog Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Following the wild ride in livestock markets the last couple weeks, traders are looking for a sense of stability to regain fundamental and technical market composure through the end of the month. Light-to-moderate gains in live cattle futures early in Thursday's session are still holding in front-month contracts, although deferred futures are eroding slightly given lack of gains in feeder cattle trade. Lean hog futures remain higher as follow-through buying moved back into the complex. The recent pressure on lean hog futures prices has left the market in an oversold position, allowing opportunities for traders to cover positions, thus moving prices off contract lows. December corn is down 1 1/2 at $4.785 and December soybean meal is down $0.20 at $429.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 152.66 at 32,883.27.

LIVE CATTLE:

Initial gains in live cattle futures helped spark continued optimism that follow-through buying would be sustained through the end of the week. As trade continued, buy orders appeared to be in shorter supply than previously expected, allowing deferred contracts to erode near midday. Although spot-month contracts are still holding moderate gains, the pressure in early 2024 contract months once again focused on the fears that supply levels may continue higher than expected. There still seems to be moderate support for holiday beef demand growth through the end of the year, which may limit further erosion of front-month contracts. But traders seem to remain cautious about quickly stepping into deferred contracts with still unanswered questions following last week's Cattle on Feed report. Cash cattle trade remains quiet Thursday morning with a few bids available at $181 to $184 per cwt live basis, depending on the area of the country. Asking prices still remain at $184 and higher in the South and $292 and higher in the North. So far this week, most of the trade has developed in the North with prices generally $4 per cwt lower than last week's price levels. Some additional trade is expected through the end of the week but may trickle slowly into the market over the next couple of days. October live cattle are $0.58 higher at $181.7, December live cattle are $0.53 lower at $178.9, February live cattle are $1.05 lower at $180.45.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $3.89 ($303.61) and select down $0.91 ($280.75) with a movement of 78.00 loads (35.45 loads of choice, 18.41 loads of select, 10.61 loads of trim and 14.33 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle trade remains mixed to mostly lower as early support quickly eroded. November feeder cattle futures are trading over $1.50 per cwt lower despite continued pressure in grain trade, which will limit overall feeding costs. Although strong gains developed at midweek, indicating buyers willing to cover recent losses, the concern that overall feeder cattle supplies may not have been fully factored into the market is again creating concern. Right now, the cattle market -- and feeder cattle trade in particular -- is very emotionally driven, with very little time for the markets to settle down and stabilize. Moderate to wide price swings may continue to develop through the remainder of Thursday, limiting opportunity for buyers who have been waiting to step back into the market. October feeders are $0.13 higher at $240.1, November feeders are $1.40 lower at $236.65 and January feeders are $0.95 lower at $235.60.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are the bright spot of livestock trade Thursday with moderate to firm gains across the complex. This is leading to a second consecutive day of gains in nearby contracts as traders try to build a foundation on recent market pressure. Although very little has changed in pork or hog market fundamentals over the last couple of weeks, prices may have hit short-term support levels, allowing for a light to moderate price bounce over the coming trading sessions. The ability for December lean hog futures to defend the $66 per cwt contract low, and even show consistent moderate gains, is helping bring more interest back into the complex each trading session. December lean hogs are $0.53 higher at $68.025, February lean hogs are $0.88 higher at $71.575 and April lean hogs are $0.70 higher at $77.475.

Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $0.98 with a weighted average of $71.38, ranging from $67.00 to $74.00 on 1,517 head with a five-day rolling average of $72.14. Pork Cutouts totaled 197.00 loads with 178.61 loads of pork cuts and 18.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $2.15 at $88.55.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Weekly Export Sales May Provide Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle found some strength after the sharp decline experienced prior to and just after the Cattle on Feed report. The report has been digested with traders turning their attention to current fundamentals. Cash cattle so far this week have traded lower with the bulk of trading in the North for dressed cattle at $290. Trade has not surfaced in the South with bids and offers $4 to $5 apart. Cash trade will set direction as futures currently have lower cash already factored in. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.52 and select down $2.34. The market will now need to prove itself before price will be able to regain what was lost and technical traders will set their sights on the chart gap that was left Monday. Feeder cattle showed greater strength Wednesday as the market rebounded from the lows. The big picture is it will take time to rebuild the herd as heifer retention has been limited at high prices. Buyers are holding back at auctions, waiting to see the strength of live cattle.

Hog futures finally uncovered some buying interest as the market seems to be establishing support after making new lows. February and April contracts initially made new contract lows before buyers stepped in to buy the break. Upside may be limited unless greater stability is found in cutout values. Wednesday, cutouts gained $1.00 with bellies providing a large amount of support with a gain of $7.36. Unfortunately, cash did not increase with the National Direct Afternoon report showing a decline of $0.68. Packers may be more aggressive Thursday as they will want to get more hogs on the books and may be a bit more aggressive with bids. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 186,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There are chart gaps above the market that technical traders will have their sights set on. Gaps generally are closed.	1)	Traders will be cautious buying back into the market, even though fundamentals are bullish. The market will need to prove itself with higher cash.
2)	The liquidation of cattle futures seems to have run its course with traders now itching to buy the break as current cattle numbers remain tight.	2)	The weekly export sales report Thursday will need to show an improvement over last week or the market could settle back again Thursday.
3)	Hog futures are correcting an oversold market with support for Thursday stemming from a higher cutout value Wednesday.	3)	Hogs have not been able to find solid cash or cutout support, which leaves the market floundering.
4)	Packers may be more aggressive Thursday as they want to procure the needed hogs for the week and take advantage of the lower prices.	4)	Hog weight increased again last week to an average of 285.2 pounds. This is an increase of 1.7 pounds over the previous week and 1.1 pounds heavier than a year ago.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Morning Rally Holds in Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Livestock futures were the bright spot of ag commodities Wednesday, with moderate to active gains seen in cattle and hog futures. Feeder cattle contracts posted the most aggressive in November contracts with gains over $2.50 per cwt, while early 2024 contracts also posted triple-digit gains. Even with the higher prices, the entire cattle market remains under technical pressure given the downturn over the last week. Lean hog futures posted uniform triple-digit gains in all nearby contracts as buyers are slowly returning following setting contract lows earlier in the week. Traders seem to still have additional room for nearby gains due to short covering continuing, but prices may show some resistance in further aggressive moves based on market fundamentals and outside market shifts. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.68 with a weighted average of $71.9 on 6,958 hogs. December corn closed down 4 at $4.80 and December soybean meal closed down $5.00 at $429.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 105.45 at 33,035.93.

LIVE CATTLE:

October live cattle futures led the complex higher midweek with gains over $1 at the closing bell. Although all other contracts posted moderate gains at best, the ability to hold early gains through the entire trading session seemed to be the difference from previous trading sessions. The concern of higher early gains is maintaining enough buy orders to continue to hold prices higher through the end of the day, but traders seemed willing to continue to move the meter higher as the day continued. This could quickly spark additional market support and price moves higher through the end of the week. Continued gains in feeder cattle trade and support from outside markets are likely needed to draw additional buyers. Cash cattle trade is becoming more evident Wednesday with trade at $290 in the North. These prices are generally $4 per cwt lower than last week, and within the general range of limited trade which occurred earlier in the week. Southern trade Wednesday remains quiet although bids of $180 to $182 per cwt are holding. Asking prices in the South remain at $185 per cwt. It is likely that some additional sales will be desired and likely needed before the end of the week, but it is uncertain just how willing packers will budge in order to gain these additional cattle. October live cattle closed $1.13 higher at $181.125, December live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $179.425 and February live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $181.5. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, steady with a week ago and unchanged from a year ago. Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.52 ($307.5) and select down $2.34 ($281.66) with a movement of 141.20 loads (56.08 loads of choice, 31.94 loads of select, 32.03 loads of trim and 21.15 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $3 to $5 Lower. Given cash trade has trickled in through the week, it is expected that prices may be established. Steady with early week trade, but $3 to $5 per cwt lower than last week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures posted strong triple-digit gains in all contracts except spot October contracts. The upward movement in the complex continues to help reduce the significant pressure seen in the complex over the last week, but the overall tone of the feeder cattle market still remains generally weak. Traders have adjusted to the fact that current feeder cattle supplies are higher than expected, but it is still too early to tell if the pace of cattle placements is ahead of previous years. This will be the main focus of traders and market analysts over the next month as many try to get a better handle on the overall size of calf crop that will enter feedlots in 2023. The ability to hold prices above contract lows through the end of the week is likely to be considered a significant win and could help draw active buyer interest during early November. October feeders closed $0.55 higher at $239.975, November feeders closed $2.63 higher at $238.05 and January feeders closed $1.70 higher at $236.55. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for October 23: down $0.49, $241.63.

LEAN HOGS:

Firm gains quickly moved into lean hog futures trade with all nearby contracts posting and holding triple-digit gains Wednesday. The overall support across the complex continues to draw buyers back into the market following the recent technical sell-off. It is expected that current short covering activities may still continue, which could help to firm the tone of the market further, bringing additional optimism to the complex. December lean hogs closed $1.13 higher at $67.5, February lean hogs closed $1.23 higher at $70.7 and April lean hogs closed $1.23 higher at $76.775. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 299.31 loads with 256.35 loads of pork cuts and 42.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.00 at $87.59. The CME Lean Hog Index for October 24: down $0.40, $78.67.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Cash hog prices are called steady early Thursday following the firmness in futures trade and pork cutout values, despite recent pressure in cash hog values.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Solid Livestock Gains Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Firm support developed early Wednesday in all livestock futures. Feeder cattle futures are showing the most resiliency with nearby gains as much as $2 per cwt higher at late morning. The ability to hold hog prices over $1 per cwt in most nearby contracts boosts the idea that traders feel the market is at or near technical support levels and could entertain moderate to active short-covering over the near future. Although live cattle futures are lagging feeder cattle trade at midweek, the fact that all contracts are in positive ranges is helping create market optimism. The pressure in grain trade has not hurt the support in livestock trade, but overall production costs are not the most significant trade factor in cattle or hog futures at this point. December corn is down 4 1/4 at $4.798 and December soybean meal is down $4.60 at $429.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 78.67 at 33,220.05.

LIVE CATTLE:

Early gains in live cattle futures trade continue to develop slowly through the morning. At midday, prices are from 35 to 75 cents per cwt higher, as markets have calmed significantly from early week, post-report losses. There will have to be a long string of moderate price increases to regain the market levels lost over the last week, but the ability to create a sense of stability in the market at midweek is a great start. Unlike Tuesday's trade, early gains have been able to hold through morning trade, indicating buyer support remains deeper than previous days, and traders may continue to focus on establishing new support levels for the weeks ahead. With upcoming holiday demand still a strong focus, there will continue to be a lot of attention placed on weekly beef movement and how this will relate to market prices. Cash cattle markets are generally sluggish Wednesday morning with a few bids developing. Current bids are still well below asking prices of $185 in the South and $292 in the North. Current bids are $180 in the South and $290 in the North. Although light to moderate trade trickled in over the last couple of days, prices were generally $3 to $5 per cwt lower than last week's average. The recent futures market pressure will likely continue to impact cash cattle pricing through the end of the week, and potentially into early November. October live cattle are $0.85 higher at $180.85, December live cattle are $0.90 higher at $179.525, February live cattle are $0.63 higher at $181.475.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.71 ($307.69) and select down $2.37 ($281.63) with a movement of 97.00 loads (40.67 loads of choice, 14.78 loads of select, 27.22 loads of trim and 15.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures continue to gain momentum through the morning. November futures lead the market higher with gains near $2.50 per cwt as traders steadily trickle back into the oversold feeder complex. Even with the renewed gains, the market remains technically weak given the pressure over the last week and may see only limited support in the near future. The ability to consistently break away from five-month lows is helping rekindle the potential for steady buyer interest to move back into cattle trade in the coming weeks. October feeders are $0.60 higher at $240.025, November feeders are $2.58 higher at $238. and January feeders are $2.10 higher at $236.95.

LEAN HOGS:

Support across all livestock contracts and firm pressure in grain trade helped develop moderate to strong buyer support in nearby lean hog futures Wednesday morning. All nearby contracts are holding gains over $1 per cwt, drawing additional buyers to the market. The ability for these contracts to hold onto gains and close higher would send a signal of potential follow-through buyer support in upcoming days. The ability of lean hog futures to firmly establish a market floor following the price pressure over the last couple of weeks will be very significant and is being closely watched by many traders. December lean hogs are $1.20 higher at $67.575, February lean hogs are $1.23 higher at $70.7 and April lean hogs are $1.18 higher at $76.725.

Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $0.59 with a weighted average of $72.36, ranging from $66.00 to $74.00 on 5,695 head with a five-day rolling average of $72.50. Pork cutouts totaled 168.91 loads with 144.94 loads of pork cuts and 23.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $2.39 at $86.4.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Flounder

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle tried to rally back somewhat early Tuesday, opening higher and then moving to triple-digit gains. Mostly short-covering took place as some traders banked profits after the large decline. Once that ran its course, futures fell back resulting in a mixed close. October live cattle and October feeder cattle closed higher as they need to converge. The last day to trade October feeder cattle is Thursday with the last day for October live cattle being Tuesday. Some cattle have already traded this week as the drop in futures triggered some cattle sales early with prices $1 to $2 lower. Some cattle owners fear holding for higher prices may only result in yet lower prices. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $1.44 and select up $2.98. That may not provide much support given the current negativity in the market. Buyers of feeder cattle have pulled back and are purchasing cattle at lower prices as the price outlook for fat cattle does look quite as rosy as it was a few weeks ago.

Hogs continue to struggle with February through June contracts making new lows. Futures have moved straight down over the past three weeks without a retracement. Both cash and cutouts continue to struggle as supply exceeds demand. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.84. Cutouts fell $1.96 to a price of $86.59. Futures are oversold technically but that is meaningless if fundamentals continue to remain bearish. Market-ready hogs are plentiful leaving packers less aggressive as they see no evidence of tightening supply.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures have chart gaps above the market that may be filled at some point.	1)	The failure of cattle futures to hold gains Tuesday indicates the strength was more the result of short-covering and not new buying interest.
2)	Boxed beef prices have been stronger, indicating demand remains good. Packers may not pull back too much as they need cattle to meet demand.	2)	Lower cash prices this week may keep the market on the defensive with traders cautious over cash prices the next few weeks. Beef demand may be slowing.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and ripe for a technical bounce.	3)	New contract lows Tuesday on some hog contracts do not provide support for the market. Traders remain apprehensive about buying into the market aggressively.
4)	Lower prices should cure lower prices as both domestic and international demand for pork might increase.	4)	Hog supplies remain sufficient for demand, leaving packers with plentiful hogs for slaughter. Farms continue to move hogs as waiting a week or two for a higher cash price does not provide any benefit.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Cattle Prices Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Initial strong gains in cattle futures created increased hope that active buyer support would retract some or most of the report pressure seen over the last couple of days. Most of the initial buying was reactionary based, and very short-lived due to limited buy orders developing.

Spot month contracts traded higher through the day with live cattle and feeder cattle futures ending the day with triple-digit gains. However, the optimism was limited as most other contract months traded lower at several times during the Tuesday session.

Given the mixed price moves, it appears that cattle markets may have found temporary stability as traders try to assess how the recent supply issues will impact market fundamentals and beef values.

Hog prices are mostly lower as continued technical weakness is limiting buyer interest across the entire complex. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.84 with a weighted average of $72.58 on 7,052 hogs. December corn closed down 6 1/4 at $4.84 and December soybean meal closed up $13.70 at $434.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 204.97 at 33,141.38.

LIVE CATTLE:

Early gains in live cattle futures pushed to triple-digit gains, creating the impression that buyers were ready to step back into the market following the recent price tumble surrounding the cattle on feed report. However, these gains were short-lived with October and December contracts the only nearby futures to hold positive price moves at the end of the session. Although there seems to be a much more stable market environment Tuesday, the inability to show significant market support and price advances, could lead to the current price range of $178 to $180 per cwt being the new market target.

There is still some uncertainty about how much long-term change in supply will develop, which will lead traders eagerly looking forward to upcoming on-feed reports in the weeks and months to come. Cash cattle trade is still generally quiet Tuesday afternoon, which is not surprising. There are reports of very light scattered trade in the South at $180 to $182 per cwt. There are a few bids of $290 per cwt still available in the North, although asking prices are not fully available with feeders trying to assess the market following the recent futures market tumble.

Mandatory reported a surprising 10,335 head sold Monday, mostly live deals that were marked at $182.50 to $185, some dressed business was done at $291. Given this activity for the first couple of days, the week could see trade trickling into the market with no sense of late week push as is typically seen. October live cattle closed $1.75 higher at $180., December live cattle closed $0.28 higher at $178.625 and February live cattle closed $0.13 lower at $180.85. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.44 ($305.98) and select up $2.98 ($284.) with a movement of 100.54 loads (61.07 loads of choice, 20.68 loads of select, 4.33 loads of trim and 14.46 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1 to $4 lower. Cash cattle trade is starting to trickle in early in the week. Given stability in spot futures trade, feeders may be able to limit the cash market losses as the week continues, although trade may be slow to develop over the next couple of days.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures followed the early move in live cattle Tuesday morning with active gains. However, this buyer support remained limited and short-lived, lending way to moderate pressure through most of the day in all but front-month contracts. Even though October futures closed with triple-digit gains, the general tone of the market still remained generally weak given the November through May contracts closed lower for the day.

The deviation from triple-digit losses, as seen over the last few trading sessions, can be viewed as a moral victory, with the expectation that markets seem to be gaining much more stability as the week continues.

Cash feeder cattle prices on the Oklahoma City Auction earlier in the week posted steers and heifers selling $4 to $8 per cwt lower than the previous week. There were some later heifer sales posted as much as $15 per cwt lower, with overall demand light to moderate at best. The sharp losses in futures trade is attributed to the strong price pressure.

October feeders closed $1.80 higher at $239.425, November feeders closed $0.38 lower at $235.425 and January feeders closed $0.85 lower at $234.85. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 20: down $1.44, $242.12.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures continued to erode Tuesday, although spot December contracts were able to etch out a narrow gain. Other contracts posted active losses and continued the price shift lower. The market continues to remain technically weak with prices establishing contract lows, and despite any support that is developing in cash or pork values, has been unable to regain enough interest to establish a strong market bottom. December lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $66.375, February lean hogs closed $0.73 lower at $69.475 and April lean hogs closed $1.05 lower at $75.55. Tuesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 0 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 351.84 loads with 306.34 loads of pork cuts and 45.50 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.96 at $86.59. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 20: down $0.72, $79.07.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Packers continue to remain moderately aggressive as they source hogs through the week, but given the recent softness in lean hog futures, cash hog prices and pork cutout values, it is expected that offers will continue to be eroded midweek and still able to secure enough hogs to meet current demand.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Markets Stabilize

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures bounced higher early Tuesday, as traders try to bring a sense of stability back into the complex following aggressive losses the last couple trading sessions. Although expanded limits are still available in live cattle and feeder cattle through the rest of the session, it appears that these will not be needed unless some major news disrupts the complex in the next couple hours.

Despite the initial triple-digit gains, live cattle and feeder cattle contracts have moved to a narrowly mixed range at midday with little incentive to move price levels from the current levels. Hog futures remained mixed through the morning with midday prices mostly lower in a narrow to moderate range. Traders will continue to focus on short- and long-term supply levels in the cattle markets, which could create some uncertainty following the recent widespread liquidation. December corn is down 4 1/2 at $4.858 and December soybean meal is up $0.50 at $421.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 202.31 at 33,138.72.

LIVE CATTLE:

Strong early gains developed in live cattle futures Tuesday morning. Following the sharp losses Monday, positive price shifts was a breath of fresh air. However, buyer momentum seemed to be very thin as prices moved to a mixed trading range during morning activity. With October and December contracts still holding below $180 per cwt, there's concern that there may not be significant and long-lasting buyer support willing to step back into the market. Traders are still concerned about just how the most recent cattle on feed numbers will impact overall long-term beef supply levels.

Over the next couple of weeks, the overall cattle marketing numbers may also have a much more significant impact in the short-term price levels. The ability to sustain a moderate range in cash cattle prices and beef values will be closely monitored for all futures trade. Cash cattle markets remain quiet with asking prices and bids still yet to be established. It is likely to be midweek or later before active interest and potential cash market sales develop. The direction of beef values and futures trade may have a significant impact in cash trade this week, as so far cash markets have not been negatively impacted by the recent pullback in futures prices. October live cattle are $0.63 higher at $178.875, December live cattle are $0.50 lower at $177.85, February live cattle are $1.03 lower at $179.95.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.21 ($305.75) and select up $2.29 ($283.31) with a movement of 48.00 loads (23.92 loads of choice, 11.10 loads of select, 3.98 loads of trim and 9.45 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have been able to avoid an additional day of sharp losses Tuesday following strong market pressure in each of the last three trading sessions. Firm gains developed across the complex Tuesday morning, but the lack of depth in buy orders left most contract months unsupported. At this point, October futures are the only contract holding onto early gains, with all other contracts holding moderate to active losses. Although the triple-digit price reductions Tuesday morning in November through April contracts are disappointing, the fact that markets have not taken advantage of expanded trading limits is creating a sense of stability across the entire complex. Traders are not only focusing on long-term supply issues, but the direction over the next couple weeks in grain trade and outside markets will likely have a significant impact in drawing noncommercial trade activity back into the feeder cattle market. October feeders are $1.88 higher at $239.5, November feeders are $1.13 lower at $234.675 and January feeders are $1.40 lower at $234.3.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog markets inched higher in light initial trade, but at midday, all but spot December contracts have eroded early gains. Moderate support in pork cutout values Tuesday morning was not enough to outweigh the overall weaker technical tone holding in the lean hog futures complex. Even with spot contracts able to hold the current gains, the lack of additional follow through buyer support and potential that traders still have a "wait and see" approach to any short-term gains in the market could limit additional upward momentum over the near future. December lean hogs are $0.63 higher at $66.8, February lean hogs are $0.25 lower at $69.95 and April lean hogs are $0.60 lower at $76.00.

Hog Prices are unreported at this time on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report due to packer submission issues. Pork Cutouts totaled 239.49 loads with 207.14 loads of pork cuts and 32.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.82 at $88.79.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Expanded Cattle Futures Trading Limits Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Clearly the cattle complex did not have the Cattle on Feed report factored in. Live cattle futures gapped lower on the open Monday and never looked back. Fund liquidation ran rampant as stops were triggered as futures fell through layers of technical support. The last time we saw declines of this magnitude was in 2020 when COVID impacted the market. The pressure Monday moved February live cattle limit down, resulting in expanded trading limits Tuesday of $10.00. Significant selling pressure likely will take place Tuesday as margin liquidation will pressure the market. Boxed beef was the bright spot with choice up $1.26 and select up $1.22. With the fall of futures, packers will bid lower this week, using the weakness to their advantage. Feeder cattle suffered greater losses with the trading limit expanded to $12.25 Tuesday. A thinner trade volume will likely exaggerate the move. Buyers of feeder cattle will pull back significantly at auctions this week.

Hogs closed slightly lower in all contracts except December. Thankfully, futures did not close at the new contract lows, which could trigger some bottom-picking buying interest. This may be supported by higher cash on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $3.85 and the increase in cutouts of $0.58. If futures move higher Tuesday, it may be only in the short-term as cash and cutouts remain unable to find support. Greater uncertainty seems to be developing as the beginning of the year approaches when Prop 12 comes into full effect.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures left chart gaps on the open Monday that generally will be filled at some point.	1)	Expanded limits and margin liquidation may push cattle futures lower as further weakness continues.
2)	Feeder cattle closed their chart gaps that had been open since June. Traders may buy back into the market once the liquidation slows.	2)	Fund liquidation generally runs two to three days before some stability is found. Smaller spec traders will add to the liquidation.
3)	Hogs did not exhibit spillover pressure from cattle and with higher cash and cutouts, futures could bounce.	3)	New contract lows in hog futures Monday do not bode well for the market technically.
4)	Packers may be more aggressive with purchases again Tuesday and take care of purchases early in the week rather than later.	4)	Any price strength Tuesday may be short-lived as cash and cutouts cannot find consistent support and a higher trend.