GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is seeing mixed interest from traders heading into Thursday's noon hour as the lean hog complex trades higher, but the cattle contracts remain depressed. Some more cash cattle trade should develop ahead of the week's end but could be delayed until Friday if packers don't become more aggressive. December corn is up 8 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 101.41 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trying to make up its mind and determine whether a day of higher or lower trading is in its future. At this point, the nearby contracts are committed to trading lower as outside economic and pollical pressures mixed with a cash cattle market that's trading on both sides of steady doesn't lend traders much comfort. But the deferred contracts are continuing to trade higher as traders remain committed to believing long term in the market's strong fundamental outlook. October live cattle are down $0.45 at $181.75, December live cattle are down $0.60 at $185.42 and February live cattle are down $0.82 at $189.55. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more trade develop Thursday morning but a sole bid of $182 is currently being offered in Nebraska. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle have traded from $288 to $291 but mostly at $290 to $291, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle have traded from $182 to $183 which is steady to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. More trade will likely need to develop ahead of the week's end but, at this point, feedlots seem committed to waiting the week out in hopes of better prices. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $184 in the South and $292 in the North.
Beef net sales of 13,300 for 2023 were down 25% from the previous week but up 7% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (4,300 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and China (1,600 mt).
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.15 ($295.61) and select down $0.10 ($274.77) with a movement of 83 loads (28.94 loads of choice, 13.74 loads of select, 7.05 loads of trim and 33.37 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
It comes as no surprise that the feeder cattle complex is continuing to trade lower as the live cattle market is lending virtually no support to its market and as the corn complex rallies $0.05 to $0.08 higher into Thursday's noon hour. Thankfully, the spot November contract is still hovering closely to the market's 100-day moving average, but that's unnerving water to be treading in as a close much below that threshold could signal technical turmoil for the complex. October feeders are down $0.05 at $247.72, November feeders are up $0.12 at $250.55 and January feeders are down $0.80 at $253.25.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex has had a rallying day thus far as the market is encouraged by the day's strong export report. Once again Mexico was the largest buyer of pork, but the strong sales notice has helped spur on some excitement throughout the futures complex and it may be even fair to ask if a bottom has been established for the market. October lean hogs are up $0.52 at $80.50, December lean hogs are up $2.77 at $71.95 and February lean hogs are up $2.55 at $75.65.
The projected lean hog index for Oct. 4 is down $0.58 at $83.70 and the actual index for Oct. 3 is down $0.28 at $84.28. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality clauses. However, we can see that only 526 head have traded, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $72.18. Pork cutouts total 170.13 loads with 142.21 loads of pork cuts and 27.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.90, $95.54.
Pork net sales of 43,000 mt for 2023 were up 57% from the previous week and 61% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (14,600 mt), China (9,400 mt) and South Korea (4,400 mt).
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