GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts kept rallying through the day's end, but the nearby lean hog contracts suffered. Heading into Tuesday's market cattle will keep a close eye on corn prices and hogs hope that their market finds a bottom sooner rather than later. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.86 with a weighted average price of $74.42 on 668 head. December corn is up 12 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $6.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 79.18 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex kept its stronger tone through Monday's close as the market was elated that no government shutdown came into play this week. Thankfully boxed beef prices also closed higher which adds a little zest of support to the market and feedlot managers hope that it pushes packers to run more aggressive slaughter speeds this week. October live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $184.42, December live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $188.35, and February live cattle closed $0.67 higher at $193.17. No trade arose in the cash cattle market throughout the day and it's likely that bids and asking prices are delayed until Wednesday or later. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be mixed, larger in Texas, but lower in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week, Northern dressed cattle sold for $288 to $293, but mostly at $290 to $291, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at $182 to $183, but mostly at $183, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 73,514 head. Of that 80% (58,802 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 20% (14,712 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.30 ($303.08) and select up $0.94 ($276.98) with a movement of 105 loads (39.00 loads of choice, 44.50 loads of select, 5.88 loads of trim and 15.64 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Much of this week's market will be determined on beef demand.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex kept with its rallying nature through the day's end as the market was relieved that the government shutdown was avoided and that the live cattle contracts lent support. Yes, corn prices were able to push a mild rally through the day's end, but that didn't affect prices through Monday's market anyway. October feeders closed $0.85 higher at $253.32, November feeders closed $0.80 higher at $255.70 and January feeders closed $1.30 higher at $259.35. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers under 750 pounds sold $6.00 to $9.00 lower, but the heavier weights sold steady to $2.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded $6.00 to $10.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 52%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/29/2023: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed mixed with the markets nearby contracts closing sharply lower while the deferred contracts maintained mild gains through the day's end. October lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $79.85, December lean hogs closed $2.27 lower at $69.50 and February lean hogs closed $1.52 lower at $73.92. The big question that the lean hog market will be challenged with throughout the week is: where is the market's bottom going to be set? With the nearby contracts not able to count on any support from the market's fundamentals right now, it's especially hard to say where technical support is going to come into play -- as always time will tell. Pork cutouts totaled 279.28 loads with 254.94 loads of pork cuts and 24.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.19, $96.04. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 17,000 head more than a week ago and 20,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/28/2023: down $0.56, $85.58.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Monday's cash hog market was pitiful, and with pork cutout values closing lower, Tuesday's market will likely be thinly traded again.
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