Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Cautiously Approach Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's surprising to see that the livestock contracts are performing as well as they are, given that Monday's market is the first chance that traders have had to react to the news of Israel being at war. Even though all three of the livestock contracts are trading lower, they're only trading lower mildly, considering all things. December corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 39.70 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts are trading modestly lower into Monday's noon hour as traders keep an arm's distance from the marketplace. I find it extremely encouraging that midday boxed beef prices are higher and hope that seasonal demand is starting to pick back up as that would inarguably encourage packers to run faster chain speeds and could even allow the cash cattle market to begin to trade higher too. October live cattle are down $0.47 at $182.60, December live cattle are down $1.15 at $185.52 and February live cattle are down $1.17 at $189.60. This week's showlist appears to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat smaller in Kansas, but lower in Texas.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288 to $291 which is $2.00 lower to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded for $182, which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 94,461 head. Of that, 80% (75,497 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 20% (18,964 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.52 ($303.53) and select up $1.18 ($276.96) with a movement of 36 loads (18.26 loads of choice, 10.75 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.98 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower as the market tries to juggle all the different balls that the market is currently having to manage. October feeders are down $1.37 at $247.00, November feeders are down $1.52 at $249.35 and January feeders are down $1.52 at $252.25. The spot November contract is trading below its 100-day moving average, which continues to be a key threshold to monitor for the market as a sharply higher or lower close on either side of the trendline could signal a long-term direction.

LEAN HOGS:

It's hard to say whether the lean hog complex has run out of steam or if the market is simply responding to Monday's market like the cattle contracts are. Either way, the lean hog complex is trading modestly lower and unless fundamental support wildly influences the market this afternoon, these weaker tones are expected through closing. October lean hogs are down $0.47 at $81.85, December lean hogs are down $1.75 at $71.82 and February lean hogs are down $1.72 at $75.85.

The projected lean hog index for Oct. 6 is down $0.57 at $82.46, and the actual index for Oct. 5 is down $0.67 at $83.03. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.36 with a weighted average price of $74.52, ranging from $68.00 to $76.00 on 862 head and a five-day rolling average of $73.65. Pork cutouts total 115.22 loads with 98.59 loads of pork cuts and 16.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.91, $97.13.