Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Round out the Week Lower While Hogs Finally Find Some Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the lean hog market finally came into some support from the day's export report and from stronger afternoon pork cutout values, but the cattle complex rounded out the day on a softer note. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.46 with a weighted average price of $86.90 on 1,322 head. July corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 483.42 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle down $2.15, August live cattle down $2.67; August feeder cattle down $3.83, September feeder cattle down $3.63; June lean hogs up $0.08, July lean hogs down $0.10; July corn down $0.19, September corn down $0.21.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,700 mt for 2024 were down 27% from the previous week and 12% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,500 mt), China (2,800 mt) and Mexico (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 44,400 mt for 2024 were up 69% from the previous week and from the four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (23,200 mt), Australia (6,100 mt) and Japan (3,600 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex would have loved to trade higher and round out this week on a stronger note -- the market was never able to shake the gloomy nature that overcame the market when China banned beef imports from the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colorado on Wednesday because traces of ractopamine were found in some of the beef. Since Wednesday's announcement, the market gradually traded lower through Friday's end and even the cash cattle market saw softer trade too. Throughout the week Northern live cattle were marked at mostly $301 which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle were sold at mostly $186 which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. June live cattle closed $1.00 lower at $181.55, August live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $178.45 and October live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $180.80.

I do think it's important to note that even though the market ended the week on a softer note, the marketplace is still trading at an incredibly high price point compared to years past. So while it may be disappointing to see 'red' prices summarize the market's performance through Friday's end, all in all, the market is still trading at historically high levels. Just last week a new all-time high was set for the market's five-area weighted average steer price of $190.09.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 43,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be 540,000 head -- incomparable to a week ago but 28,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.84 ($313.20) and select down $0.81 ($301.71) with a movement of 127 loads (86.57 loads of choice, 21.55 loads of select, 7.37 loads of trim and 11.62 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have built up enough supply around them that they won't have to chase after the cash cattle market next week and advance prices again.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Traders may have run out steam ahead of Friday's close -- which is why the feeder cattle contracts closed lower -- but fundamentally the feeder cattle market continues to see tremendous demand in the countryside for both calves and feeders. August feeders closed $2.67 lower at $256.40, September feeders closed $2.55 lower at $258.12 and October feeders closed $2.47 lower at $258.97. It was disappointing to see that the spot August contract closed below the market's 100-day moving average, which could signal that the market could be subject to more pressure in the days ahead from a technical standpoint. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week early feeder sales were steady to $4.00 higher, but late week sales on steers were $3.00 to $9.00 higher and heifers sold $10.00 to $20.00 lower. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 45%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/30/2024: down $1.04, $248.24.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex pulled it off -- the market was able to close fully higher ahead of Friday's end thanks to stronger pork exports! June lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $94.35, July lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $97.12 and August lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $96.50. It also was extremely encouraging to see afternoon pork cutout values close higher as the carcass price closed $1.30 stronger -- up mainly because of the $6.07 jump in the ham. Either way, both traders and hog producers alike were thankful to see the futures complex come into some support after trading mostly lower since the end of April. Pork cutouts totaled 304.67 loads with 266.53 loads of pork cuts and 38.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.30, $103.25. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 43,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 235,000 head. The CME lean hog index 5/29/2024: up $0.21, $91.00.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's unlikely that packers show Monday's cash hog market much interest as they never seem to early in the week -- but if pork cutout values start trading stronger, the cash market could see more support than it has in recent weeks.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Northern Cash Cattle Sales Remain Thin as Feedlots Wait for More Money

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the morning's export report was fruitful for the hog complex, the nearby lean hog contracts are continuing to trade lower. There's been a light trade of Northern live cattle sold for $190 (which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average) but all in all the cash cattle market hasn't seen much interest throughout the day. July corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 76.89 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,700 mt for 2024 were down 27% from the previous week and 12% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,500 mt), China (2,800 mt) and Mexico (1,500 mt). Pork net sales of 44,400 mt for 2024 were up 69% from the previous week and from the four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (23,200 mt), Australia (6,100 mt) and Japan (3,600 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

With boxed beef prices slightly lower, cash cattle sales seeming to develop for steady to $2.00 lower and the morning's export report dismal, the live cattle complex is heading into Friday's noon hour slightly lower. June live cattle are down $1.22 at $181.32, August live cattle are down $1.82 at $177.97 and October live cattle are down $1.57 at $180.55. More than anything some of the market's vigor and excitement seems to have faded as the market's fundamentals are supportive but not etching out new all-time high weekly cash cattle prices kind of supportive. Only a light movement of trade has developed in Nebraska live at $190 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. No dressed sales have surfaced yet. On Thursday some live cattle sales were reported in the South at $186 which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. For the cattle left to sell, asking prices are firm at $187 plus in the South and $303 to $305 in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: down $0.22 ($313.82) and select down $0.52 ($302.00) with a movement of 74 loads (51.75 loads of choice, 14.85 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.40 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The market's lingering, heavy technical pressure has continued to drive the feeder cattle contracts lower as the complex was disappointed to see cash cattle prices developing at weaker money. August feeders are down $2.97 at $256.07, September feeders are down $3.15 at $257.52 and October feeders are down $3.10 at $258.35. Even though feeder cattle demand remains incredibly high in the countryside thanks to limited supplies of feeders and calves (the CME feeder cattle index closed at $249.28 Thursday afternoon) the market seems more driven by technical pressure than anything at this point.

LEAN HOGS:

The nearby lean hog contracts are continuing to trade lower even though the morning's export report was strong, but the market's deferred contracts are trading slightly higher. The lean hog complex seems stuck in muddy water, wishing that demand was better, but unable to get the tug of support it needs to break free of the muck and lower trend. June lean hogs are up $0.05 at $94.05, July lean hogs are down $0.05 at $96.900 and August lean hogs are down $0.02 at $96.22. Traders seem comfortable trading the deferred contracts higher, but at this point, the nearby contracts seem committed to their lower/weaker trend and will likely continue with that pattern through the day's end.

Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.73 with a weighted average price of $86.93, ranging from $84.00 to $90.00 on 1,312 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.47. Pork cutouts total 202.74 loads with 181.09 loads of pork cuts and 21.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.94, $103.89.

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Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May See Further Strength to Close Out the Month

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was the second consecutive day that selling put significant pressure on cattle futures only to have the pressure subside as the day progressed. There is concern over China banning beef from a JBS plant in Colorado leaving traders uncertain over the length of the ban. Further testing is being conducted. There was some light cash cattle trade $1.00 lower in the South on Thursday. This may have set the stage for further trade today. No activity was reported in the North. Boxed beef prices closed higher with choice up $0.42 and select of $0.04. This will not have any significant influence on cash trade. Feeder cattle futures closed lower for the second day eliminating the past week's gains.

The positive technical action of hog futures yesterday may trigger further short-coving from an oversold market. Cash did not provide the support as the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $1.69 moving the weighted average to $87.36. It is uncertain whether packers will need to finish some buying today or if they have sufficient on hand leaving them less aggressive. Cutouts were able to close higher posting a gain of $0.21 due to a $6.43 increase in bellies. Demand concerns remain a cloud over the market but, interestingly hog slaughter remains strong. That would indicate demand is strong.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have rejected the lows for the second consecutive day indicating traders are reluctant to liquidate futures.	1)	China banning beef from the JBS Greely, Colorado plant has increased traders' caution. There is a possibility further testing could discover further evidence of ractopamine.
2)	If further testing of beef in the Colorado plant shows no further traces of ractopamine, China may lift the ban leaving business as usual.	2)	Light cash cattle trade in the South at $1.00 lower may have set the stage for this week.
3)	Hog futures closing higher after making new lows may trigger further short covering ahead of the weekend and the end of the month.	3)	The bounce of hog futures on Thursday may not be enough to trigger further short covering. The trend remains down.
4)	The strong slaughter pace suggests demand may be better than believed. Reduced demand would generally result in reduced slaughter as packers try to improve margins which is not the case.	4)	Hog weights increased by 0.1 pounds last week to 288.0 and remained 6.2 pounds above a year ago. There is a lot of pork available for the market.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog complex was the only livestock market able to close slightly higher as the market has seemed to find a bottom for its current move. Meanwhile both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets closed lower as traders patiently waited for some fundamental support to develop throughout the day's trade, but unfortunately, none surfaced. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.69 with a weighted average price of $87.36 on 3,189 head. July corn is down 6 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $5.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 358.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The market continued to trade lower throughout Thursday's complex as the announcement that China has banned beef imports from the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colorado as traces of ractopamine were found in some meat that was destined for the country weighs heavily on the market. The plant will likely have to undergo some further testing and jump through some hoops before China lifts the ban, but in the meantime, the market has elected to react negatively which was displayed throughout today's trade. There was a handful of cattle traded in the South at $186, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but the North continues to hold out for better money. Bids of $300 were offered throughout the day, but feedlots let that offer grow cold and sit on the table. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists in the South remain firm at $189 to $191, and asking prices in the North are still not well established. June live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $182.55, August live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $179.77 and October live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $182.12. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.42 ($314.04) and select up $0.04 ($302.52) with a movement of 137 loads (94.77 loads of choice, 22.05 loads of select, 6.88 loads of trim and 13.24 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that only a thin movement of cattle traded throughout Thursday's space, it's likely that packers will have to give more money for the cattle they intend to buy on Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With doggish, dreary tones hanging over the cattle complex throughout Thursday's trade, the feeder cattle market continued to trade lower through the day's end. August feeders closed $1.17 lower at $259.07, September feeders closed $1.12 lower at $260.67 and October feeders closed $1.10 lower at $261.45. The spot August contract did close below its 100-day moving average, which is a threshold that typically signals strength and support, and we should continue to monitor the market's relationship with that moving average. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers under 600 pounds sold $1.00 to $5.00 lower. Feeder steers weighing over 600 pounds sold $9.00 to $18.00 higher. And feeder heifers sold mostly $3.00 to $16.00 higher across all weight groups. Breaker slaughter cows sold $16.00 higher, boner cows sold $8.00 higher and lean cows sold $10.00 higher. Slaughter bulls sold $6.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 39%. The CME feeder cattle index 5/29/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex found some support in Thursday's market as it seems as though a new bottom may have been found technically for the market's current move. Unfortunately, the bad news of the day is that once again pork cutout values closed lower, which won't give traders any additional support. The carcass price stood little chance of closing higher as the loin fell $3.95, the rib fell $3.94 lower and the belly alone dropped $4.08 lower. The market is hoping to see better pork demand in Friday's export report -- but it's holding its breath on that idea as demand in all markets has been hard-pressed lately. Pork cutouts totaled 309.40 loads with 266.96 loads of pork cuts and 42.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.66, $101.74. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/28/2024: down $0.47, $90.79.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With demand lagging, it's not likely that packers will pay much interest to Friday's cash market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Technical Tones Send the Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far it's been an uneventful and doggish day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading lower and without any exciting fundamental news to rally and drive the contracts higher, this weaker tone could be seen through the day's end. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's likely that trade will be delayed until Friday at this point. July corn is down 5 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 314.40 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex hasn't been able to shake the news that China has blocked beef imports from the JBS Greeley, Colorado plant as traces of ractopamine were found in meat from that plant. It's not helping matters either that the cash cattle market hasn't traded yet as it's assumed that cattle will trade higher again this week, but traders know better than to put the cart before the horse and count on that development before it happens. So, while positive fundamentals could still shake loose later this week, the market is stuck trading lower currently. June live cattle are down $0.85 at $182.50, August live cattle are down $0.95 at $179.25 and October live cattle are down $0.97 at $181.47. There are no bids currently being offered, but packer interest is expected to increase throughout the day. Asking prices in the South are noted at $189 to $191 but remain unestablished still in the North. At this point, trade will likely be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.81 ($314.43) and select down $0.28 ($302.20) with a movement of 63 loads (37.55 loads of choice, 16.57 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.04 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's another dreary day for the feeder cattle complex as the market is currently trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower. At this point the spot August contract is trading below the market's 100-day moving average, which has been a critical threshold for the marketplace as it signals traders' support and overall attitude toward the market. Fundamental demand and interest remain incredibly strong for feeder cattle and calves, but Wednesday's announcement that China will not be accepting beef from the JBS plant in Greely, Colorado has rattled traders and consequently the feeder cattle contracts too. August feeders are down $2.55 at $257.50, September feeders are down $2.70 at $259.05 and October feeders are down $2.65 at $259.90.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is again trading mixed as the nearby lean hog contracts celebrate the recent support that the carcass price has found, but the deferred contracts aren't as optimistic. Demand – both here and abroad – remains in question for the lean hog market, which is the biggest reason why the market continues to see mixed interest from traders. Weekly export sales will be released Friday morning (a day later than normal because of the holiday-shortened week). June lean hogs are up $0.20 at $93.97, July lean hogs are up $0.02 at $96.35 and August lean hogs are down $0.25 at $95.67.

The projected lean hog index for 5/29/2024 is up $0.21 at $91.00, and the actual index for 5/28/2024 is down $0.47 at $90.79. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.02 with a weighted average price of $87.66, ranging from $85.00 to $90.00 on 2,192 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.51. Pork cutouts total 158.35 loads with 149.23 loads of pork cuts and 9.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.49, $102.23.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Could See Further Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures did an about-face on Wednesday with a slightly lower open but falling after the news that China would not accept beef from the JBS packing plant in Greely, Colorado. There were traces of ractopamine found in some of the beef to be shipped to China. Ractopamine is intended to provide economic benefits by increasing the rate of gain, improving feed efficiency, and increasing carcass leanness. However, it is banned in Europe, China, and some other countries due to health concerns if consumed. This could be a larger issue and will keep traders on edge. Cattle futures erased the gain from Tuesday and may see further weakness today as traders digest this information. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.50 and select down $0.95.

Hog futures opened higher following the strength of cash and cutouts on Tuesday, but then slowly deteriorated as the day progressed. The positive aspect was that new lows were not made but that is a small consolation after a strong beginning. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report was positive with cash up $1.22 with a weighted average of $89.05, but cutouts were weaker with values down $1.66. The packers may have much of their buying finished for the week leaving them less aggressive. Traders may not be too anxious about buying futures even though the market is oversold.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The discovery of ractopamine in beef at a Colorado plant may be a one-off situation with traders remaining optimistic over prices.	1)	The discovery of ractopamine in beef to be shipped to China may have larger implications for exports and domestic consumption.
2)	Live cattle futures bounced from the lows after the initial bearish reaction to China canceling beef. This may keep traders from liquidating their long positions.	2)	Traders could liquidate futures positions with the uncertainty of China blocking beef shipments from the JBS plant in Colorado.
3)	Hog futures did not make new lows on Wednesday which may indicate the selling pressure may be subsiding.	3)	Even with strong cash and cutouts on Tuesday, hog futures could not uncover sustained buying interest.
4)	Hog futures may hold support at the lows from February which could trigger buying interest in the oversold market.	4)	The weakness of cutouts on Wednesday indicates demand remains less than desired keeping traders concerned.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a gloomy day for the livestock complex as the entire marketplace closed lower. The biggest hitting news however was China's announcement that they will not be accepting any beef from the JBS processing plant in Greely, Colorado as traces of ractopamine were found -- which obviously had a negative effect on the cattle complex. Given that it's a holiday-shortened week, exports won't be posted on Thursday this week, but instead on Friday. Hog prices closed lower higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.22 with a weighted average price of $89.05 on 6,204 head. July corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $7.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 411.32 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Upon hearing that China has blocked beef shipments from JBS's plant in Greely, Colorado because traces of ractopamine were found in some of the beef set to be shipped to China, the wind was sucked right out of the cattle complex's sail. June live cattle closed $1.20 lower at $183.35, August live cattle closed $1.62 lower at $180.20 and October live cattle closed $1.95 lower at $182.45. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are noted in the South at $189 to $191. Some trade could begin to develop on Thursday, but it wouldn't be surprising to see trade wait until Friday to really begin. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.50 ($313.62) and select down $0.95 ($302.48) with a movement of 140 loads (92.22 loads of choice, 23.10 loads of select, 7.31 loads of trim and 17.79 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2.00 higher. Feedlot managers continue to possess the lion's share of the market's leverage as showlists are extremely current and if packers don't offer the bids in which managers would like to see -- they can afford to roll their showlists over to the next week and wait for prices to get better.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex reacted most drastically to JBS's announcement, as the market gave back all the position it conquered through Tuesday's trade. August feeders closed $4.35 lower at $260.25, September feeders closed $3.90 lower at $261.80 and October feeders closed $3.70 lower at $262.55. The market is currently hovering right at its 100-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold that signals whether or not traders are feeling bullish and optimistic about the market's near future. The CME feeder cattle index 5/28/2024: up $0.05, $248.68.

LEAN HOGS:

Try as it might, not even the lean hog complex was able to keep its market trading higher through Wednesday's end. Again, it didn't help matters that the afternoon cutout price closed lower -- which was a collective decision as the belly closed $4.08 lower, the loin closed $3.95 lower and the rib closed $3.94 lower. But with demand continuing to be an issue for the complex, traders stood little chance at truly advancing the market without cutout values closing higher. June lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $93.77, July lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $96.32 and August lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $95.90. Pork cutouts totaled 309.40 loads with 266.96 loads of pork cuts and 42.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.66, $101.74. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/24/2024: down $0.37, $91.26.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers have shown a little more aggression in this week's cash hog market as they were likely short bought, but at some point, they're going to have their weekly needs fulfilled.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Weaker Tones Settle Into Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex has slowed down as both the live cattle and feeder cattle futures are lower and lean hog futures are mixed. The cattle complex is looking for substantial fundamental support before traders are willing or confident to advance the market much more. July corn is down 6 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $6.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 341.32 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex seems to be creating a new sideways trading range as the market patiently waits for something positive to develop. Yes, boxed beef demand is mixed and there's the expectation that cash cattle sales will trade at least steady again this week if not a little higher. But for Wednesday and at this exact moment, traders haven't come by the support they're longing for. June live cattle are down $1.12 at $183.45, August live cattle are down $1.42 at $180.40 and October live cattle are down $1.60 at $182.80. No cash cattle trade has developed at this point and it's likely the week's action again will be delayed until Thursday or Friday. No bids or asking prices have been noted yet.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.71 ($313.83) and select down $0.89 ($302.54) with a movement of 67 loads (39.73 loads of choice, 10.58 loads of select, 5.29 loads of trim and 11.36 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even the rallying and robust feeder cattle complex is trading lower into Wednesday's noon hour as the market lacks sufficient support to keep trading higher. It's likely traders are wrestling with the findings of Tuesday's Crop Progress report as USDA shared that 83% of the corn crop was planted by May 26, which is just slightly ahead of the market's 5-year average, but not as high as traders had hoped. Nevertheless, the feeder cattle complex is virtually giving back all the position it earned through Tuesday's trade. August feeders are down $3.60 at $261.00, September feeders are down $3.22 at $262.47 and October feeders are down $2.92 at $263.32.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is mixed as traders have noted that pork cutout values closed slightly higher Tuesday afternoon, but aren't willing to advance the market wildly as they'd like to see more consistent support before doing so. And midday pork cutout values are lower again. June lean hogs are up $0.07 at $93.87, July lean hogs are up $0.10 at $96.62 and August lean hogs are steady at $96.10. If afternoon pork cutout values close lower, it's likely nearby contracts will lose their higher tone when Thursday's market opens unless export demand is riveting.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/28/2024 is down $0.47 at $90.79, and the actual index for 5/24/2024 is down $0.37 at $91.26. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $87.64, ranging from $84.00 to $89.50 on 1,789 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.39. Pork cutouts total 171.25 loads with 144.94 loads of pork cuts and 26.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.92, $102.48.

 

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Strong Product Prices Should Support Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The Cattle on Feed report provided support to cattle futures Tuesday. Feeder cattle were the recipients of strong buying interest from traders. The August contract gained over $4.00 with later contracts not far behind. Live cattle futures did not exceed the highs last week, but the market is supported with June futures holding a discount to cash and continued gains in boxed beef. Choice cuts gained $1.67 with select cuts up $1.71 on Tuesday. Strong demand should keep packers aggressive with slaughter and buying in the country. This will give feedlots confidence to hold for higher cash again this week. Feeder cattle pushed higher as the report showed numbers will remain tight.

Hog futures cannot find sufficient buying interest to support the market. The concern over demand hangs over the market like a dark cloud. However, cash and cutouts showed nice gains Tuesday as retail needed to restock shelves after the holiday weekend. It is uncertain whether the strength will continue and turn the trend higher, but it should support futures Wednesday. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.19 with a weighted average price of $87.83. The packers wanted to purchase hogs early due to the holiday-shortened week. Cash is expected higher Wednesday as packers obtain the desired number of hogs for the week. Cutouts showed substantial strength with a gain of $4.26. Gains were seen for all primal cuts except butts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Consumer demand remains strong which will support the cattle market. Boxed beef prices continue to increase, keeping the packers aggressive.	1)	The continued higher beef prices may cause consumer resistance due to higher overall food prices. The cure for high prices is high prices.
2)	Feedlots will hold for higher prices again as packers purchase for immediate needs and purchase ahead to maintain slaughter.	2)	Once store shelves are restocked, boxed beef prices may decline as temperatures increase and consumption decreases.
3)	Strong cash hogs and cutouts Tuesday should generate buying interest in futures at these lower prices.	3)	Hog futures made new lows again Tuesday, keeping the downtrend intact. Traders are unwilling to step in to purchase aggressively.
4)	The trend may be changing for hogs which could trigger short-covering in the extremely oversold futures market.	4)	The June hog contract closed below the low set in February which may result in further technical selling.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Successively Close Higher Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a strong day for the cattle complex as traders advanced both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets, but the lean hog market remains apprehensive about trading higher as demand hasn't consistently been strong. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.19 with a weighted average price of $87.83 on 3,095 head. July corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $9.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 216.73 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

All in all, it was another positive, powerful day for the live cattle complex as the market again closed higher seeming to follow behind the aggressive momentum in the feeder cattle complex. June live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $184.55, August live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $181.82 and October live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $184.40. So long as beef demand continues to show strong interest, it's likely that the futures complex will be well supported as the cash cattle market is expected to trade steady to somewhat higher again this week. The fact remains that feedlots hold the lion's share of the market's leverage and if they aren't given the money they year for, they're in a position where they can afford to hold on to their showlists and roll them over to the next. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and asking prices and bids remain elusive at this point. It's not likely that any trade will develop ahead of Thursday. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head. June live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $184.55, August live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $181.82 and October live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $184.40.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $187, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average; Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $302 to $305, which is steady to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 67,936 head. Of that 77% (52,013 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 23% (15,923 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.67 ($312.12) and select up $1.71 ($303.43) with a movement of 117 loads (71.34 loads of choice, 21.24 loads of select, 8.25 loads of trim and 16.00 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With boxed beef demand still thriving, it's likely that cash cattle prices will trade at least steady, if not some higher later this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex charged onward all through Tuesday's market as the support wasn't hard to come by in today's trading arena. Between corn prices closing lower, Friday's Cattle on Feed report being bullish and continuing to show limited supplies in the months ahead, and feeder cattle demand in the countryside remaining incredibly strong -- it was nearly effortless for traders to run the complex $3.00 to $4.00 higher ahead of the day's end. August feeders closed $4.37 higher at $264.60, September feeders closed $3.95 higher at $265.70 and October feeders closed $3.70 higher at $266.25. The CME feeder cattle index 5/27/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex saw afternoon pork cutout values and cash hog prices close higher, but still, the market's nearby contracts remain skeptical of advancing whatsoever as nearby demand continues to be a finicky market. If traders saw demand increase over a series of consecutive days, or weeks, then it's likely that they'd have a different attitude, but one day of higher prices isn't enough to change their minds. June lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $93.80, July lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $96.52 and August lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $96.10. Pork cutouts totaled 294.00 loads with 248.71 loads of pork cuts and 45.29 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.26, $103.40. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 14,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 2,000 head. The CME lean hog index 5/23/2024: down $0.14, $91.63.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers showed more aggression in buying early in the week than what they normally do, it's likely that they're somewhat short bought and will need to buy more hogs throughout the week.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Respond Positively to Friday's Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex is trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the market is currently well supported by Friday's encouraging Cattle on Feed report and by continued beef demand. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading mixed as the nearby contracts continue to question demand in the immediate future while the deferred contracts inch modestly higher. July corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $9.90.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 173.68 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading modestly higher into Tuesday's noon hour as traders are encouraged by Friday's strong Cattle on Feed report and the continued support of higher boxed beef prices. June live cattle are up $0.45 at $184.15, August live cattle are up $0.32 at $181.45 and October live cattle are up $0.32 at $184.27. It's still too early to know what this week's cash cattle trade is going to amount to, but if beef demand continues to trend higher, there's a chance the cash cattle market could trade higher again this week.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $187, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average; Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $302 to $305, which is steady to $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.06 ($312.51) and select up $1.49 ($303.21) with a movement of 52 loads (30.37 loads of choice, 10.06 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.54 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Between last Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report, to the slight decline in corn prices, the feeder cattle complex has all the support it needs to trade higher. August feeders are up $3.92 at $264.15, September feeders are up $3.50 at $265.25 and October feeders are up $3.25 at $265.80. The market is currently thriving as it's in what seems to be a "perfect storm" as demand continues to drive boxed beef prices higher and feeder cattle interest in sale barns across the country remains incredibly strong. The market is just three short weeks out from seeing what the first big online feeder cattle sales are going to do for the year and, at this point, higher prices seem likely.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though midday pork cutout values are noticeably higher, the lean hog complex continues to trade mixed with the market's nearby contracts lower while the deferred months trade mildly higher. Traders and pork producers both like to see the midday carcass price higher, but after a long stretch of weak pork demand, traders want to see continued pork interest at the meat counter before they'll begin to believe that demand is substantiating. Not to mention, the carcass price is being heavily influenced by the $10.15 rally in the belly. June lean hogs are down $0.25 at $94.00, July lean hogs are down $0.55 at $96.70 and August lean hogs are down $0.77 at $96.12.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/24/2024 is down $0.37 at $91.26, and the actual index for 5/23/2024 is down $0.14 at $91.63. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidently. However, we can see that only 205 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $86.97. Pork cutouts total 154.10 loads with 123.31 loads of pork cuts and 30.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.23, $103.37.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Expected Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures were higher for the week but coasted into the weekend ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The report was considered neutral to a bit friendly in the long term. To some extent, this may have been already factored in as futures were higher for the week, but most of the gains were likely due to higher cash cattle trade. However, the numbers will remain tight according to the report. Southern cattle traded $1.00 higher while Northern dressed cattle traded as much as $5.00 higher with the average price in Nebraska reaching an all-time high. It is interesting cattle futures are not at new contract highs even though cash is at a record high. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.61 and select up $1.64. Fund traders increased their long positions by 7,843 futures contracts on the Commitments of Traders report, bringing their net-long futures positions in live cattle to 49,463 contracts. The funds reduced their net-long futures positions in feeder cattle to 4,204 contacts, a decrease of 207 contracts.

Hog futures have much to overcome as the National Direct Afternoon hog report on Friday was down $1.63 with a weighted average of $86.64. The higher slaughter level is overwhelming demand, resulting in continued pressure on the market. The market is oversold technically, but that will not cause a price rally. There needs to be consistent fundamental support. Interestingly, fund traders remain long in the market with the Commitments of Traders report showing them holding a net-long futures position of 44,171 contracts. However, this was a decline of 12,931 contracts from the previous week. Cutouts were higher Friday posting a gain of $0.45. The packers may be more aggressive Tuesday as they need to purchase hogs for the week to makeup for the 3-day holiday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was neutral to friendly with tighter numbers continuing to support the market.	1)	Cattle futures may have the Cattle on Feed report already factored in which may result in some profit-taking Tuesday.
2)	Higher cash cattle last week will provide confidence to feedlots to hold for more this week.	2)	Boxed beef prices may trend lower now that Memorial Day demand is finished and consumers settle down to regular demand and high beef prices.
3)	Hog futures are substantially oversold and nearing technical support. This could trigger short-covering.	3)	Hog futures have not found consistent support from cash and cutouts. This keeps the concern of reduced demand alive and well.
4)	Retail outlets will need to restock shelves, which will support cutout prices.	4)	Hog futures are oversold but that does not mean the market will rally. It can remain that way for an extended period.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feedlots Continue to Hold Out for Higher Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex pulled back ahead of Friday's close in preparation for the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, but thankfully no bearish surprises were found there, and the market should be able to rally on its strong fundamentals again early next week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.63 with a weighted average price of $86.64 on 1,317 head. July corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is up $9.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4.33 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: June live cattle up $2.65, August live cattle up $2.07; August feeder cattle up $0.38, September feeder cattle up $0.90; June lean hogs down $2.22, July lean hogs down $2.82; July corn up $0.12, September corn up $0.12.

Friday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers was up 4% from the previous month but down 9% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 1% from the previous month and down 5% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 8% from the previous month but down 12% from the last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 3% from last month but down 6% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mixed with the June and August 2024 contracts closing slightly higher while the rest of the complex closed modestly lower. The market seems to pull back modestly ahead of closing as traders have grown accustomed to doing so before the monthly Cattle on Feed reports are shared, but the June and August 2024 contracts didn't bother to do so as the market was elated by this week's strong performance in the cash cattle complex. Bids have been sitting on the table throughout the day, but at the time of this writing, no more cash cattle sales have been noted following what transpired on Thursday. Thus far this week Southern live cattle have sold mostly for $187 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $300 to $304 which is steady to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Depending on where the week's weighted average falls in the Northern plains if the market averages $304, that's a new all-time high for the region. June live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $183.70, August live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $181.12 and October live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $183.95.

All in all, Friday's Cattle on Feed report should be viewed as bullish long-term given that on feed numbers were decreased, placements were less than a year ago and marketings were higher than a year ago. Click here to read DTN's Cattle on Feed comments:

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 4,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 607,000 head -- 9,000 head more than the previous week and 18,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.61 ($310.45) and select up $1.64 ($301.72) with a movement of 107 loads (74.23 loads of choice, 13.80 loads of select, 7.57 loads of trim and 11.49 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's a coin toss on how next week's cash cattle market will trade as at some point packers will have enough supply around them that they won't have to support the cash sector, but pinpointing when that occurs exactly remains the question as packers also can't go without having enough product to market during this time when boxed beef prices are so high.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex pulled back ahead of Friday's close as traders were anxious to see the Cattle on Feed data. Thankfully the report came out as expected, so no bearish consequences should be in store for next week's market. August feeders closed $1.22 lower at $260.22, September feeders closed $0.97 lower at $261.75 and October feeders closed $0.77 lower at $262.55. Even though the futures complex closed lower, the feeder cattle market is still seeing ample demand as the CME feeder cattle index closed above $250 -- which shows how aggressively buyers are bidding on feeders to get their orders filled. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week steers and heifers over 700 pounds traded $4.00 to $9.00 higher and steers and heifers under 700 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $3.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded steady. The CME feeder cattle index 5/23/2024: up $1.33, $250.14.

LEAN HOGS:

It was another painful week for the lean hog complex as the market is trading day in and day out, but simply not receiving the demand it years for. Some of the market's deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher, but the lack of demand kept the nearby contracts from closing higher. Pork cutout values did round out the day slightly higher -- but after a full week of mostly lower trading, the day's slight uptick in carcass price wasn't much support from the market. June lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $94.27, July lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $97.22 and August lean hogs closed $0.12 lower at $96.90. Pork cutouts totaled 227.53 loads with 207.08 loads of pork cuts and 20.45 loads of trim. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 451,000 head -- 17,000 head less than a week ago but 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 10,000 head. The CME pork cutout index 5/22/2024: down $0.05, $91.77. Pork cutout values: up $0.45, $99.14.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that pork demand is still an issue, packers won't likely bid the cash market aggressively.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Complex Trading Higher Thanks to Better Cash Cattle Sales

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is thankful to see boxed beef prices higher again and is still in awe of Thursday's strong trade in the cash cattle market. Heading into Friday afternoon, be ready for the Cattle on Feed report and for the potential that some more cash cattle trade could develop. August live cattle are up $0.78 at $181.85, August feeder cattle are up $0.15 at $261.6, July lean hogs are down $0.13 at $97.35, July corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $9.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 107.91 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though no new cash cattle sales have been reported yet Friday, the live cattle complex is back to trading higher as Thursday's impressive trade in the cash market has captivated traders. Also helping matters Friday morning is the fact that boxed beef prices are back to trading fully higher too. Bids are currently offered in Kansas at $188 but no new sales have been reported at this point. More trade will likely develop throughout Friday afternoon, and there's still a chance that Southern live prices could trade higher. On Thursday, Southern live cattle traded for $187, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $300 to $304, which is steady to $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. June live cattle are up $0.77 at $184.30, August live cattle are up $0.85 at $181.92 and October live cattle are up $0.70 at $184.77.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.72 ($311.56) and select up $1.70 ($301.78) with a movement of 71 loads (48.87 loads of choice, 8.56 loads of select, 4.59 loads of trim and 9.40 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the exciting news in the live cattle market (higher cash cattle trade and stronger boxed beef prices) the feeder cattle market is back to trading higher as the entire cattle complex is again encouraged. With the market currently trading at its two-month high, traders will likely allow the complex to trade steady to somewhat higher through Friday's end but not advance the market wildly before see what this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report amounts to. August live cattle are up $0.20 at $261.65, September feeders are up $0.40 at $263.12 and October feeders are up $0.25 at $263.57.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as some of the deferred contracts are seeing mild support while the nearby contracts continue to struggle as demand has not been as strong as hoped for. June lean hogs are down $0.17 at $94.35, July lean hogs are down $0.15 at $97.32 and August lean hogs are down $0.15 at $96.87. Midday pork cutout values may be higher, but traders aren't turning the nearby contracts higher as demand has been minimal throughout the earlier part of the week.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/23/2024 is down $0.14 at $91.63, and the actual index for 5/22/2024 is down $0.05 at $91.77. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $86.88, ranging from $86.00 to $88.00 on 898 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.46. Pork cutouts total 171.06 loads with 158.78 loads of pork cuts and 12.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.78, $99.47.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Trader Positioning Ahead of COF Report Will be Evident

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Weekly export sales were positive, increasing 42% from the previous week. That was not enough to underpin the market throughout the day as traders turned their attention to the Cattle on Feed report and began positioning ahead of the report as Thursday progressed. The report has been known for its surprises and this one will be no exception due to the wide estimate for the placement number. Estimates for the report are for an on-feed number on May 1 of 99.1% of a year ago. Placements in April at 93.3% and marketings at 109.5%. The range of estimates for the on-feed number is 97.9% to 100.5%. Placements again have a wide range of 86.5% to $104.5% and will keep traders cautious going into the report. The range for marketing is from 108.6% to 110.7%. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $2.33 and select up $0.47. The April Livestock Slaughter Report released Thursday showed beef production at 2.30 billion pounds, 11% above April 2023. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.73 million head, up 7% from a year earlier with the average live weight being 1,395 pounds, up 41 pounds from April 2023.

Hogs tried but could not hold the gains that developed Thursday. Support remains elusive with bearish traders trading the trend. The market is overdone to the downside but may remain that way until positive support develops from cash and cutouts. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a gain of $0.44 but was offset by cutouts declining $1.38. Weekly export sales were good at 26,300 metric tons (mt), which may have provided brief early support until the buying dried up. Pork production in April totaled 2.32 billion pounds, up 9% from April 2023. Hog slaughter reached 10.7 million head, up 10% from a year earlier. The average hog weight was one pound lower at 290 pounds. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 12,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Light cash cattle trade on Thursday at $1 to $2 higher with a few sales $5 higher. Packers did not want to wait until after the report and possibly be short-bought for the week.	1)	Selling in the cattle complex may take place on Tuesday if April placements are higher than the trade expectations.
2)	Higher cash trade would support futures once the Cattle on Feed report is released and digested over the long weekend. There is a discount of cash to futures.	2)	Further selling of cattle futures may be evident Friday as traders position themselves ahead of the report.
3)	The further hog futures decline and the more oversold they become, the greater the potential for a substantial price retracement.	3)	Hog futures continue to post lower lows, keeping sellers aggressive as they trade the trend. Fundamental support remains elusive.
4)	Lower prices should stimulate greater demand. The volume of pork for the Memorial Day weekend may be realized next week as retail will need to restock shelves.	4)	The packers may not be aggressive Friday in the cash market as they may have already purchased sufficient hogs for the week.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Feedlots Traded Cattle for $300 to $305 -- steady to $5.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts may have rounded out the day on a weaker note in the futures complex, but the cash cattle market achieved yet another victory as prices ranged anywhere from $1.00 to $5.00 higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.44 with a weighted average price of $88.27 on 1,679 head. July corn is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 605.78 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 21,500 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 42% from the previous week and 32% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (5,800 mt), South Korea (5,100 mt) and Mexico 2,900 mt). Pork net sales of 26,300 mt for 2024 were up 24% from the previous week but down 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (10,300 mt), Japan (4,100 mt) and South Korea (2,600 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The futures complex may have cooled down ahead of Thursday's close, but thankfully feedlot managers continued to market their showlists and it paid dividends for them as early Northern sales have been marked at $304 -- which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average in Nebraska, and if the week's weighted average ends up being at $304, that's a new all-time high for dressed cattle trade. Southern live cattle have been lightly traded at $187 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. I have to applaud feedlot managers and their willingness to work the cash cattle market because it's in times like this, that true price discovery is achieved. Well done, friends, what a historic time to be living in!

June live cattle closed $0.65 lower at $183.52, August live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $181.07 and October live cattle closed $0.57 lower at $184.07. The board's performance may be frustrating to see today as one would expect that record-breaking cash cattle sales in the North should have a positive effect on the futures complex. But the Northern plains didn't begin to trade cattle until after the market was closed and traders noted the continued pressure on choice cuts which influenced their decision to turn the complex lower. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week and a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.33 ($309.84) and select up $0.47 ($300.08) with a movement of 114 loads (80.61 loads of choice, 14.40 loads of select, 8.96 loads of trim and 10.52 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have traded now in both regions, it's likely that the week's prices are set.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex slumbered through Thursday's end as the market was patiently waiting for some fundamental support to arise but with the Northern plains not trading cash cattle until after the day's closing bell, even the feeder cattle complex closed slightly lower this afternoon. August feeders closed $1.45 lower at $261.45, September feeders closed $1.02 lower at $262.72 and October feeders closed $0.87 lower at $263.32. The feeder cattle complex will likely rally again on Friday as the market will be encouraged by the strong sales in the cash cattle market. The only thing that could be holding traders back is the fact that the month's Cattle on Feed report will be released again tomorrow afternoon which always leaves traders on edge until they see the data. Thankfully the report is expected to showcase fewer numbers of cattle on feed, lighter placements and aggressive marketings so the report should bode well for the cattle complex. The CME feeder cattle index 5/22/2024: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

Yet again, with domestic demand being less than hoped for, the lean hog complex closed lower. June lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $94.52, July lean hogs closed $0.65 lower at $97.47 and August lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $97.02. The cash hog market saw a little more support and prices did close slightly higher, but with less than 2,000 head having traded -- it's hard to say that that lent much support to the greater market. Unfortunately, lean hog prices closed lower again with the belly being the biggest reason why as it alone fell $5.01. Pork cutouts totaled 237.35 loads with 212.97 loads of pork cuts and 24.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.38, $98.69. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index: down $0.19, $91.82.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that pork cutout values continue to trade lower, it's likely packers won't pay much attention to the cash sector.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Light Southern Trade Beginning to Develop for $1 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With some light trade beginning to develop in the South for $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are continuing to trend higher. Meanwhile, not even better export news can help turn the lean hog complex higher as its market is frustrated by a lack of domestic demand. July corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 245.21 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 21,500 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 42% from the previous week and 32% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were China (5,800 mt), South Korea (5,100 mt) and Mexico 2,900 mt). Pork net sales of 26,300 mt for 2024 were up 24% from the previous week but down 3% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (10,300 mt), Japan (4,100 mt) and South Korea (2,600 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though the choice cut is under some slight pressure, the live cattle complex is able to continue to trade higher as the market is encouraged by the light cash cattle trade that's developing in the South at $187, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Bids of $300 to $302 dressed are being offered in Nebraska, but with feedlots asking $305 in the North, that bid simply won't do at this point. June live cattle are up $0.27 at $184.45, August live cattle are up $0.32 at $182.00 and October live cattle are up $0.30 at $184.95. Asking prices for cattle left to trade in the South remain firm at $188 to $190, and more trade will need to develop before the week's end.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.50 ($309.67) and select up $1.35 ($300.96) with a movement of 60 loads (39.66 loads of choice, 7.26 loads of select, 6.91 loads of trim and 6.64 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to grind higher as the market is encouraged by the early developments in this week's cash cattle market. Yes, corn prices are trading slightly higher, but traders are finding more support in the early notes of cash cattle sales than they are worried about $0.03 gains in the corn complex. Not to mention, sales in the countryside remain extremely strong, which is evident by the CME Feeder Cattle Index closing at $248.44 Wednesday afternoon. August feeders are up $0.15 at $263.05, September feeders are up $0.30 at $264.05 and October feeders are up $0.32 at $264.45.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though export sales were slightly better for the hog complex, the market continues to trade lower as pork cutout values continue to drop. June lean hogs are down $0.52 at $94.87, July lean hogs are down $0.45 at $97.67 and August lean hogs are down $0.42 at $97.12. Unfortunately until the hog complex finds some support, the technical downward spiral will likely continue.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/22/2024 is down $0.05 at the actual index for 5/21/2024 is down $0.19 at $91.82. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 969 head have traded and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $87.97. Pork cutouts total 151.05 loads with 130.23 loads of pork cuts and 20.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.51, $99.56.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Traders Begin Looking Ahead to Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle led the charge Wednesday with futures breaking through and closing above technical resistance. Live cattle futures are heading to the highs set in March. The limiting factor Thursday might be the upcoming Cattle on Feed report. Traders may either take some profits or protect their positions with other strategies ahead of the report and the extended weekend. Estimates for the report are for an on-feed number on May 1 of 99.1% of a year ago. Placements in April at 93.3% and marketings at 109.5%. The range of estimates for the on-feed number is 97.9% to 100.5%. Placements again have a wide range of 86.5% to $104.5% and will keep traders cautious going into the report. The range for marketing is from 108.6% to 110.7%. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $0.85 and select down $1.26.

Hogs remained unable to find support Wednesday. The cash and cutouts weakness on Wednesday does not provide support for Thursday. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.37. Cutout values declined by $0.62. There is continued talk about the concern over demand but hog slaughter continues to run above the previous week and year. More hogs are being processed for a reason. Weekly export sales may indicate an increase in international demand. The technical aspect of the market has been bearish with prices heading to test the lows from February. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 12,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The trend is your friend and traders continue to follow the trend. Feeder cattle closed above resistance, which may increase buying interest.	1)	There is a chance for a bearish surprise on the Cattle on Feed report and traders may take steps to limit their exposure.
2)	Analysts expect some friendly numbers on the Cattle on Feed report, which may limit profit-taking ahead of the report.	2)	The weakness of boxed beef prices Wednesday may indicate the buying for Memorial Day has run its course and demand may slow as consumers grapple with high beef prices.
3)	Hog futures are significantly oversold and may bounce ahead of the extended weekend.	3)	Hog weights remain 3.9 pounds higher than a year ago, keeping packers active but not aggressive in the cash market.
4)	Hog weights remained unchanged from the previous week at 287.9 pounds. Higher slaughter is keeping market-ready hogs current.	4)	The trend is down with new lows nearly every day. Funds continue to exit their long positions with the market struggling to find fundamental support.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Complex Momentum Drives the Cattle Sector Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts saw ample trader support, but the lean hog market continues to plunder lower as pork demand is lacking. No cash cattle trade has developed yet but packer interest could improve on Thursday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.37 with a weighted average price of $87.82 on 3,665 head. July corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 231.53 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another powerful day for the live cattle complex as the futures complex closed higher yet again thanks to the spillover support that came from the feeder cattle market's strong performance. The old saying of, "feeders are the leaders," was true today as the market saw boxed beef prices close slightly lower. June live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $184.17, August live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $181.67 and October live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $184.65. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as packers and feedlots will again go toe-to-toe this week. Early asking prices in the South are noted at $188 to $190, but remain unestablished in the North. Most of this week's trade will likely be delayed again until Friday. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.85 ($312.17) and select closed $1.26 lower ($299.61) with a movement of 133 loads (85.92 loads of choice, 21.97 loads of select, 7.19 loads of trim and 17.73 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Feedlots continue to hold the market's leverage, and with that being the case, prices will likely trade steady if not a little higher again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex held back nothing through Wednesday's trade as the market closed anywhere from $1.00 to $3.00 higher as countryside support and strong live cattle fundamentals continue to propel the complex higher. Nearby corn prices closed $0.01 to $0.03 higher, but the feeder cattle complex didn't seem to care as traders were interested in advancing the market -- so much so that the spot August contract closed above its 100-day moving average ($260.25). August feeders closed $3.07 higher at $262.90, September feeders closed $2.62 higher at $263.75 and October feeders closed $2.50 higher at $264.20. At Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to last week feeder steers sold $4.00 to $9.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher with instances up to $15.00 higher. The market reporter remarked that "October in May is the best way to describe today's offering. The sounds of bawling calves could be heard across the parking lot as producers have elected to market to take their calves to town with these high prices." The CME feeder cattle index 5/21/2024: up $0.69, $248.44.

LEAN HOGS:

Another day, another lower close and continuing to lack substantial consumer demand seems to summarize the lean hog complex well. The lean hog complex endured yet another dreary day as the market saw little support from traders as consumer demand continues to be an issue for the market. June lean hogs closed $1.00 lower at $95.40, July lean hogs closed $1.20 lower at $98.12 and August lean hogs closed $1.02 lower at $97.55. There's a chance that Thursday's export report could be beneficial to the complex, but in recent weeks demand hasn't been strong from international buyers either. Pork cutouts totaled 258.10 loads with 224.78 loads of pork cuts and 33.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.62, $100.07. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 5/20/2024: down $0.21, $92.01.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork demand remaining an issue, it's likely that packers only lightly buy in this week's cash market. 

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Feeders Drive Cattle Complex Higher Again

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The feeder cattle complex is powering its way through Wednesday's trade and thankfully the live cattle complex is able to follow in its wake as its market is receiving some of the spillover support. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex continues to trade lower as demand remains unfruitful. August live cattle are up $1.03 at $181.45, August feeder cattle are up $2.73 at $262.55, June lean hogs are down $1.15 at $95.25, July corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 48.03 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though midday boxed beef prices are lower, the live cattle complex doesn't seem to be too concerned as the market continues to charge higher. June live cattle are up $0.85 at $183.82, August live cattle are up $0.90 at $181.32 and October live cattle are up $1.07 at $184.22. If afternoon boxed beef prices close lower, there's a chance traders could pull back from the market Thursday. But at this point, the complex still feels as though support is strong enough to justify higher trade. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's likely the market will wait to trade cattle Thursday, or even more likely on Friday. Asking prices in the South are noted at $188 to $190 but remain unestablished still in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.93 ($312.09) and select down $0.78 ($300.09) with a movement of 84 loads (58.43 loads of choice, 10.08 loads of select, 4.91 loads of trim and 10.38 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is seeing the most support thus far Wednesday as the contracts are trading anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher. It's significant to see the spot August contract trading above its 100-day moving average, which is also likely adding fuel to the live cattle complex as the feeder cattle market's power is strong this morning. August feeders are up $2.55 at $262.37, September feeders are up $2.27 at $263.40 and October feeders are up $2.10 at $263.10. The May 2024 feeder cattle contract will expire Thursday, and currently there's a $12.00 spread between the May 2024 and August 2024 feeder cattle contracts.

LEAN HOGS:

With demand continuing to lag in the pork sector, the lean hog complex is continuing to trade lower as the market desperately yearns for demand but continues to be disappointed by consumer interest. June lean hogs are down $1.15 at $95.25, July lean hogs are down $1.45 at $97.87 and August lean hogs are down $1.20 at $97.37. The loin continues to pull the carcass price lower as its down $2.70 Wednesday morning, and the butt is an issue this morning as its down $6.37.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/21/2024 is down $0.19 at $91.82 and the actual index for 5/20/2024 is down $0.21 at $92.01. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.47 with a weighted average price of $87.02, ranging from $85.00 to $88.00 on 1,721 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.26. Pork cutouts total 153.30 loads with 125.75 loads of pork cuts and 27.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.59, $100.10.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Further Strength in Cattle Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures opened higher Tuesday and closed higher with August live cattle above $180, the highest close since March 22. The February contract closed above $190. Demand continues to support the market with boxed beef showing further strength with a gain of $0.32 for choice and $1.52 for select. This will give feedlots confidence to hold out for more this week. The Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday after the close with traders likely beginning to turn their attention to it Wednesday. Traders are facing two aspects of the market that will impact trading activity -- the Cattle on Feed report and the three-day weekend. The Friday of Memorial Day weekend generally has significantly lighter trade as the attention is focused on the kick-off weekend of the summer. Then there is the report that will not be traded until next week on Tuesday. Traders may reduce their risk ahead of the weekend. The estimates for the report are for on-feed number May 1 of 99.1% of a year ago. Placements in April at 93.3% and marketings at 109.5%.

Hog futures were unable to find strong buying interest Tuesday. Cutouts continued to struggle with a loss of $1.08. The positive aspect was the strength of cash with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing an increase of $1.77. The slaughter pace continues to remain strong but hog numbers are not tightening. Some of the influence on this may be the imports of hogs from Canada being processed in the U.S. Futures remain entrenched in a downtrend with lower lows Tuesday. Cash is expected higher Wednesday as the packers will remain aggressive ahead of the weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Demand is strong and reflected in higher boxed beef prices. The packers will need to remain aggressive to meet that demand.	1)	The strong demand for the Memorial Day weekend may run its course resulting in the weakness of boxed beef prices.
2)	Cattle futures closed near the highs which should keep buying interest strong as traders trade with the trend.	2)	Cattle futures may retrace before the holiday weekend and the Cattle on Feed report.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and, with the extended holiday weekend, they may cover some short positions ahead of the weekend.	3)	Pork demand ahead of the weekend is not as great as expected, keeping a bearish tone in the market.
4)	The packers may be aggressive Wednesday as they may want to purchase hogs sooner rather than later before the holiday weekend.	4)	Support remains elusive as funds continue to liquidate and lower lows indicate further weakness. Futures have not found solid support.