Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lower, Lackadaisical Tones Push Most Livestock Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a dreary day for the livestock complex as most of the contracts closed lower as traders remain cautious about overly supporting the complex. It's looking like the bulk of this week's cash cattle trade is done. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 378.08 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 13,900 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were down 17% from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The three largest increases were from South Korea (4,900 mt), China (3,200 mt) and Japan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 44,800 mt for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 16% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (17,700 mt), China (10,400 mt) and Japan (4,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex endured another disappointing day where the market's biggest change was again the futures complex. Thankfully today's lower end wasn't a sharp decline like the market's seen over the last two previous days, but rather instead traders let the market chop sideways/somewhat lower through the day's end as there simply wasn't enough support in the complex to confidently advance the contracts. The nearby contracts (December 2024, February 2025 and April 2025) all closed lower, but the deferred contracts were able to close mildly higher. December live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $186.30, February live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $186.77 and April live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $187.35. A few bids were offered throughout the day for the cash cattle market, but no trade developed. At this point, a few more clean-up sales could develop but all in all, it's looking like the week's trade is essentially done with. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $190, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $296 to $298, which is steady to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.84 ($317.60) and select down $3.95 ($285.37) with a movement of 139 loads (84.02 loads of choice, 29.23 loads of select, 9.62 loads of trim and 16.22 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that prices have been set in both regions, any clean-up trade that does develop on Friday will likely be steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another doggish day for the feeder cattle complex as the market traded lower throughout the entire day as no support surfaced from the live cattle complex. Thankfully today's close wasn't another downward leg for the market, instead, the complex closed merely sideways with Wednesday's end. At this point, the market is limited to trading in any direction but steady/somewhat lower until fundamental support and confidence reemerge. November feeders closed $0.12 lower at $245.37, January feeders closed $0.65 lower at $241.32 and March feeders closed $0.77 lower at $239.07. At Kist Livestock Auction in Mandan, North Dakota, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 450 to 500 pounds sold $18.00 higher, steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold steady to $1.00 lower, but steers weighing 600 to 650 pounds traded $9.00 higher. The sale did note that spring calves with two rounds of shows brought a premium. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 33%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/30/2024: up $1.14, $251.20.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed as the market's nearby contracts closed slightly lower, but the deferred contracts powered through the day's end. December lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $83.80, February lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $85.20 and April lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $88.10. Thankfully pork cutout values closed higher again this afternoon which should come as a reassuring factor to traders -- especially since every single major cut closed higher. However, the nearby contracts may choose to chop sideways throughout the remainder of the week as they need continued support to justify trading the contracts any higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.10 with a weighted average price of $82.70 on 1,605 head. Pork cutouts totaled 344.61 loads with 281.75 loads of pork cuts and 62.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.54, $103.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/29/2024: up $1.05, $86.78.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that Thursday's market hardly saw any attention from traders it's likely that Friday's market will be even less supported.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lack of Support Pushes Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Thursday's noon hour as support for the marketplace is minimal. No new cash cattle trade has developed and it's looking like the bulk of this week's trade is essentially done. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 271.54 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 13,900 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were down 17% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The three largest increases were from South Korea (4,900 mt), China (3,200 mt) and Japan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 44,800 mt for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 16% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (17,700 mt), China (10,400 mt) and Japan (4,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to trade lower, but thankfully Thursday's weaker tone is mostly trading sideways with Wednesday's close as traders don't seem as pressured as they were earlier in the week. December live cattle are down $0.22 at $186.20, February live cattle are down $0.65 at $186.40, and April live cattle are down $0.85 at $186.75. No new cash cattle sales have been noted, and it's likely the bulk of this week's trade is essentially done. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $190, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $296 to $298, which is steady to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left on showlists are around $193 in the South and $299 plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.58 ($317.86) and select up $1.28 ($288.04) with a movement of 91 loads (48.52 loads of choice, 20.24 loads of select, 8.48 loads of trim and 13.73 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as the market is cautiously following in live cattle shadow -- not wanting to do anything counter to what the live cattle complex does. And even though demand has continued to remain strong in the countryside for both feeders and calves, and some of the recent moisture has helped feeding conditions, traders don't seem concerned about anything besides the market's technical state right now. November feeders are down $0.52 at $244.97, January feeders are down $1.40 at $240.57, and March feeders are down $1.67 at $238.17.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is now trading lower but the market can't point to Thursday's export report and blame a lack of demand. The export report shared that 44,800 mt were sold. Instead, Thursday's weakness seems to be a mere pause in the road for traders as they want to see what market fundamentals are going to do before they advance the contracts any higher. And as a side note, it's worth mentioning that most of the nearby contracts are currently trading at contract highs. December lean hogs are down $0.17 at $84.20, February lean hogs are down $0.45 at $85.25, and April lean hogs are down $0.02 at $88.02.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 10/30/2024 is up $1.15 at $87.93, and the actual index for 10/29/2024 is up $1.05 at $86.78. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 435 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average sits at $83.00. Pork cutouts total 157.71 loads with 135.36 loads of pork cuts and 22.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.70, $102.31.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Weakness May Add Further Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures may see further weakness Thursday as the market corrects from being overbought and due to positioning for the end of the month. Weakness in cash cattle trade also added to the pressure as some traded $2.00 to $3.00 lower. It will be interesting to see how many will trade at steady cash and how many at lower prices as the second half of the week progresses. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.17 and select down $0.64. Boxed beef prices weakening indicates slow demand. It may be temporary but will influence cash trade. The October live cattle contract goes off the board Thursday, leaving December as the front month.

Hog futures continue to post new highs with December leading the way and closing the gap to where October ended trading. Hog futures continue to be supported by strong cash and cutouts as demand remains good and hog numbers do not appear as abundant as reported. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report Wednesday showed cash up $1.09 on good packer demand. Pork cutouts increased $0.41. The packers may not be quite as aggressive Thursday, resulting in lower cash. USDA reported Wednesday they had detected the H5N1 virus in a pig in Oregon in a backyard pen. This is the first detection of the virus in swine in the U.S. The five hogs on the premises were housed together with poultry. They were euthanized to facilitate further testing.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The recent weakness of cattle futures may be a technical correction and once completed could result in solid buying interest that could push the market higher.	1)	Liquidation generally runs three days and this is the third day. Further selling pressure may be seen due to lower cash trade.
2)	The December live cattle contract holds a discount to the expiring October contract. It could eliminate the discount once it becomes the front month.	2)	Beef prices may have increased too much, resulting in slowing demand. Beef prices may have reached a threshold.
3)	The strength of cash and cutouts in hogs indicates continued strong demand. New contract highs keep traders confident of higher prices.	3)	Weekly hog weights have bounced back up with a gain of 0.5 pound last week, an average weight of 286 pounds and 0.6 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	Packers continue to purchase hogs without difficulty but are paying higher prices for those ready for the market. The anticipated large hog numbers have not been realized.	4)	The packers may hold back and pay less money for hogs Thursday and assess their needs for the rest of the week.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - The Board's Weakness Affected this Week's Cash Cattle Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again rounded out the day in two very different realities as the cattle complex is enduring some technical pressure while the lean hog market continues to rally and thrive. Some cash cattle trade was noted throughout the day where prices traded anywhere from steady to $3.00 lower. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 91.51 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another sobering day for the live cattle complex as the market ventured lower through Wednesday's end and seemed to have an effect on the cash cattle market too as some light business developed throughout the day. December live cattle closed $1.52 lower at $186.42, February live cattle closed $1.57 lower at $187.05 and April live cattle closed $1.50 lower at $187.60. A light trade was reported shortly after the noon hour as live cattle were trading for mostly $190 in the South, which is mostly steady with last week's weighted average. Live sales in the North were marked at $188 to $190 which is steady to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but dressed sales were marked at mostly $296 to $298 which is steady to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. I was surprised to see feedlot managers willing to trade cattle this early in the week as overall their showlists are fairly current and this only allows for packers to continue to build up inventory around them and forgo needing to support the market more aggressively next week. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.17 ($319.44) and select down $0.64 ($289.32) with a movement of 154 loads (82.49 loads of choice, 46.26 loads of select, 13.98 loads of trim and 11.72 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that trade has already been noted in both regions, any more trade that develops throughout the week will likely be steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't catch any sort of a breakthrough in Wednesday's trade as the market continued to dive lower as it watched the live cattle market continue to deteriorate. November feeders closed $1.10 lower at $245.50, January feeders closed $2.05 lower at $241.97 and March feeders closed $2.57 lower at $239.85. The spot January contract opened below the market's 100-day moving average and did round out the day below that threshold. It's unlikely that until the live cattle market again trades higher and finds technical stability the feeder cattle market will trade higher. At Philip Livestock Auction in Philip, South Dakota, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 400 to 450 pounds sold steady, steers weighing 450 to 550 pounds sold $4.00 to $6.00 higher, and steers weighing 550 to 600 pounds sold steady. Feeder heifers under 500 pounds sold steady to $2.00 higher, heifers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $4.00 to $6.00 higher and heifers weighing 800 to 850 pounds sold $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 14%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/29/2024: up $0.57, $250.06.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to secure yet another day of higher prices as the market continues to chart into new territory as the complex is achieving new contract highs nearly daily at this point. December lean hogs closed $1.55 higher at $84.37, February lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $85.70 and April lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $88.05. Helping continue to push the market higher is the tremendous demand the market is seeing from consumers. Thankfully yet again today pork cutout values closed higher but today's higher carcass prices were solely because of the belly's $5.42 gain. It will be interesting to see what Thursday's export report yields and how the market reacts to the report if it's not undeniably bullish. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.09 with a weighted average price of $82.04 on 5,064 head. Pork cutouts totaled 251.17 loads with 215.68 loads of pork cuts and 35.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.41, $101.48. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/28/2024: up $0.18, $85.73.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. With consumer demand remaining as strong as it is, packers could still be active in Thursday's cash market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Bids of $190 Live and $295 Dressed Surface

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex is keeping with its lower trend as trades remain skeptical of the market at this point without having seen what the cash cattle market will do and still believing that the market is somewhat overbought. Bids have surfaced in the South at $190 live, and in the North at $295 dressed but no cattle have traded at this point. December corn is down 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 157.54 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex continues to trade lower as traders are liquidating some market positions as they worry about the complex being overbought. I expect that some of this pressure will ease after the end of the month and money managers move some of their positions around, especially if market fundamentals continue to remain strong. Yes, boxed beef prices are seeing a little bit of pushback this week, but slaughter speeds are expected to remain aggressive and it's unlikely that feedlot managers let cattle trade for anything less than steady this week as their showlists are current which gives them leverage. Bids are beginning to pop up however as packers hope that the board's weakness will rattle some feedlot manager's confidence and push them into trading cattle early. Live bids of $190 are currently being offered in Kansas, Nebraska and Texas, and dressed bids of $295 are being offered in Nebraska. December live cattle are down $1.07 at $186.87, February live cattle are down $1.30 at $187.32 and April live cattle are down $1.30 at $187.80.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.09 ($319.52) and select down $0.50 ($289.46) with a movement of 104 loads (55.70 loads of choice, 31.47 loads of select, 8.13 loads of trim and 8.67 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's been another tough day for the feeder cattle market as the complex is trading mostly $1.00 to $2.00 lower as traders aren't willing to allow feeders to trade higher while the live cattle complex is uncertain. November feeders are down $1.22 at $245.37, March feeders are down $2.50 at $239.92 and April feeders are down $2.45 at $241.17. Demand continues to remain incredible in the countryside, but today's technical pressure continues to be all that the market is fixated on.

LEAN HOGS:

Once again, the lean hog complex is rocking and rolling as the day trades into Wednesday's noon hour. Continuing to be driven higher by excellent consumer demand, the nearby lean hog contracts are aggressively reaching new contract highs almost daily. If Thursday's export report isn't fruitful, the market could regress and trade slightly lower, but the market's morale is expected to be strong through the remainder of the day. December lean hogs are up $1.75 at $84.57, February lean hogs are up $0.70 at $86.07 and April lean hogs are up $0.30 at $88.07.

The projected lean hog index for 10/29/2024 is up $1.05 at $86.78, and the actual index for 10/28/2024 is up $0.18 at $85.73. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $85.94, ranging from $77.00 to $87.50 on 4,760 head and a five-day rolling average of $82.73. Pork cutouts total 140.94 loads with 127.39 loads of pork cuts and 13.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.23, $102.30.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts May See Further Pressure

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures tried to push through resistance but selling pressure pushed futures lower Tuesday. This could be the beginning of a price correction as further weakness Wednesday could trigger further liquidation. Cash cattle did not trade Tuesday and are not expected to trade Wednesday. The uncertainty of demand and the recent weakness of boxed beef have traders anticipating no better than steady cash this week. Boxed beef was lower Tuesday with choice down $2.89 and select down $2.22. Feedlots may be more interested in selling even at lower prices if further selling occurs in cattle futures Wednesday or Thursday. Feeder cattle took the weakness more personally with contracts posting greater losses despite good demand for cattle and calves in the country.

Hog futures opened higher Tuesday, quickly pushing to new contract highs. The December through May contracts left a chart gap as traders jumped into the market due to the exceptional gains in cash and cutouts Monday. The packers were aggressive on Tuesday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report up $1.09 on good volume. Pork cutouts did not fare as well with a decline of $0.88. It is possible packers step back Wednesday and Thursday to see how many hogs they can purchase without having to be aggressive. Then step back in again Friday if more are needed to fill slaughter needs.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady cash cattle trade this week would support the market, limiting the downside price weakness of futures.	1)	The selling on Tuesday may have been the beginning of a larger price correction due to an overbought market. If the fund traders liquidate, there could be another two or three days of selling.
2)	Demand for feeder cattle remains strong with higher prices at auctions due to lower numbers and strong demand.	2)	The weakness of boxed beef and lower futures could increase the desire of feedlots to move cattle at steady or lower cash prices.
3)	Hog futures gapped higher as traders anticipated further cash strength and continued strong demand.	3)	The December through May lean hog contracts left chart gaps under the market. These chart gaps will be filled.
4)	Packers are aggressively looking for hogs and are willing to pay more for them to maintain strong slaughter pace. Packer margins are good.	4)	The bull spreading of the past few days may be unwound, putting pressure on the nearby contract months.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Dive Lower as Traders Worry About the Market Being Overbought

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Tuesday ended up being a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle complex dove lower as traders panicked about the market being overbought, but the lean hog complex successfully traded higher throughout the day. Still no cash cattle sales have been noted. December corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 154.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a doozy of a day for the live cattle complex as the market closed substantially lower as traders seemed to be waving their white flag on the market's upward trend. The market initially opened higher this morning but quickly felt the pressure of the futures market's resistance and closed mostly $1.00 lower in the nearby contract. But with boxed beef prices seeing some weakness, and no cash cattle sales having developed yet, traders looked at their position, continued to note that the market is oversold, and quickly sent the market trailing lower. December live cattle closed $1.32 lower at $187.95, February live cattle closed $1.47 lower at $188.62 and April live cattle closed $1.60 lower at $189.10. No bids or asking prices are noted at this time and it's unlikely that the market will see any trade ahead of Thursday. At this point, everyone is somewhat on edge as time will tell how much of a correction is in store for the complex -- but it never feels good when the market turns and you're waiting on time to deliver answers. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.09 ($320.41) and select down $2.22 ($289.96) with a movement of 150 loads (83.72 loads of choice, 25.32 loads of select, 14.20 loads of trim and 26.83 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that boxed beef prices are showing some weakness and that packers have built up some supply around them, prices likely trade steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market reacted abruptly to seeing the live cattle market's sharp decline and it too closed lower. November feeders closed $2.60 lower at $246.60, January feeders closed $2.92 lower at $244.02 and March feeders closed $3.12 lower at $242.42. The spot January contract did end up closing below its 100-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold that the market would like to overcome, but it simply lacks the continued technical support needed in order to do so. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week feeders teers under 400 pounds sold sharply higher. Steers weighing 400 to 600 pounds sold steady to $10.00 higher and steers weighing 600 to 750 pounds sold $10.00 to $20.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 600 pounds sold $4.00 higher to sharply higher and heifers weighing 600 to 700 pounds sold $4.00 to $5.00 stronger. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 21%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/28/2024: up $0.12, $249.49.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle complex spent the day fretting, the lean hog market powered through Tuesday's trade and successfully rounded out the day with new contract highs in a number of the nearby contracts. The momentum currently supporting the lean hog market's rally seems to be largely stemming from widespread consumer support -- and although this afternoon's carcass price closed slightly lower -- demand as of late has been exceptional. December lean hogs closed $2.20 higher at $82.82, February lean hogs closed $1.15 higher at $85.37 and April live cattle closed $0.65 higher at $87.77. The biggest limiting factor to today's carcass prices drop was the $5.37 decline in the picnic and the $3.86 decline in the loin. However, the cash market did see improvement as prices not only closed higher but a sizeable volume traded as well. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.09 with a weighted average price of $82.04 on 5,064 head. Pork cutouts totaled 296.04 loads with 251.95 loads of pork cuts and 44.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.88, $101.07. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/25/2024: up $0.12, $85.55.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely buy more hogs again in Wednesday's market as slaughter speeds have been aggressive and demand has been strong.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lackadaisical Tones Send Cattle Lower, But Hogs Continue to Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour as cattle trade is drifting lower seeming to wait to see what develops fundamentally this week, but the lean hog complex is continuing to charge higher. It's not likely that any developments will surface in the cash cattle market until Thursday or later and at this point no asking prices or bids have been posted. December corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 53.80 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Without any trade having developed yet in the cash market, and with boxed beef prices lower in the morning report, traders are opting to trade cautiously which has consequently sent the live cattle contracts back to trading slightly lower. December live cattle are down $0.20 at $189.07, February live cattle are down $0.32 at $189.77 and April live cattle are down $0.60 at $190.10. It's not likely that any cash cattle trade will develop ahead of Thursday, so today's weaker tone will likely stick with the market through today's close.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.35 ($323.15) and select down $1.82 ($290.36) with a movement of 81 loads (34.30 loads of choice, 16.17 loads of select, 8.39 loads of trim and 21.97 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading lower into Tuesday's noon hour as traders are waiting to see what develops fundamentally before they'll likely advance the contracts much higher again this week. But even with today's slight correction, the spot January contract is still trading above the market's 100-day moving average which emphasizes the market's underlying bullish nature. November feeders are down $0.87 at $248.27, January feeders are down $1.22 at $245.72 and March feeders are down $1.30 at $244.25.

LEAN HOGS:

With the continued support of strong pork demand, traders are once again advancing the lean hog contracts into Tuesday's noon hour. December lean hogs are up $2.20 at $82.82, February lean hogs are up $1.07 at $85.30 and April lean hogs are up $0.47 at $87.60. And thankfully the steady gains seen throughout pork cutout values have helped keep traders engaged in the marketplace even though most of the contracts are already trading contract highs.

The projected lean hog index for 10/28/2024 is up $0.18 at $85.73 and the actual index for 10/25/2024 is up $0.12 at $85.55. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 1,409 head have traded throughout the day and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $74.79. Pork cutouts total 164.86 loads with 138.95 loads of pork cuts and 25.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.26, $102.21.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Show Increased Optimism

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures began lower Monday, as expected, due to the Cattle on Feed report but eventually found greater buying interest as traders focused back on the current fundamentals. Higher cash last week and the potential for no less than steady cash this week provide continued support. However, support has not been sufficient to push futures above technical resistance. Boxed beef was mixed Monday with choice up $1.26 and select down $2.90. This may cause traders to pause on their outlook for continued higher prices. Both domestic and international demand may begin to waver at the higher prices. The packers were able to purchase cattle ahead last week, but they are keeping up with demand and with forward purchases nearly the same as the previous week. this is not considered negative to the market. Thursday is the last trading day for October live cattle futures.

Hogs had a positive Monday with new contract highs through the October 2025 contract. Cash hogs showed a substantial gain with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing an increase of $5.29. The packers were aggressive and needed hogs due to strong demand last week and over the weekend. Pork cutout values jumped $3.01 with all categories posting higher prices. The strongest gains were seen in loins and bellies with an increase of $4.78 and $4.68, respectively. The strong slaughter pace is keeping hogs current with hog numbers seemingly not as plentiful as earlier reported.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was slightly negative relative to expectations but friendly compared to a year ago. Traders have already factored in the report.	1)	Live cattle futures may have difficulty breaking through and holding above technical resistance.
2)	No worse than steady cash is expected for cattle this week, providing continued support to the market.	2)	Boxed beef prices may be wavering again, limiting the upside price potential of futures.
3)	The packers began the week very aggressively in the cash market as the stronger slaughter pace needed to be supplied. Hog numbers may be tightening.	3)	The large gain in cash hogs Monday may not hold through the week once the packers have their needs covered.
4)	Higher cutouts indicate continued strong demand. High beef prices are causing more consumers to see the value of pork.	4)	Managed money traders are holding near record-long positions and any bearish news could trigger Katie-bar-the-door selling for a few days.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It ended up being a supportive day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets closed higher. Once again, this week traders will closely monitor consumer demand as that will play a pivotal role in the market's direction. December corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 273.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex wasn't sure if there was going to be enough support in today's market to allow its contracts to trade higher -- especially with seeing steady on-feed totals presented in Friday's Cattle on Feed report -- but thankfully traders found merit in the market's fundamentals and allowed for a higher close. December live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $189.27, February live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $190.10 and April live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $190.70. The market's underlying attitude remains bullish and somewhat eager to continue to trade higher -- but traders won't likely advance the contract without first seeing what the cash cattle market does which won't be until later in the week. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be somewhat lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Kansas and Texas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $190 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $298 which is also $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 98,023 head. Of that 77% (75,486 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 23% (22,537 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.26 ($323.50) and select down $2.90 ($292.18) with a movement of 156 loads (60.89 loads of choice, 20.30 loads of select, 10.50 loads of trim and 63.92 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With packers able to buy a sizeable volume of cattle last week, prices may be pressured to trade steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex powered through Monday's market and confidently pushed higher through the day's end. It was exciting to see the spot January contract create some distance between its closing price and the market's 100-day moving average as the market has been dancing around that threshold over the last month, not seeming confident as to which direction the market should trade. But today's higher close thankfully pushed the contracts higher and if fundamental support remains plentiful throughout the week, traders may be able to pass that threshold confidently for the near term. November feeders closed $0.62 higher at $249.20, January feeders closed $1.32 higher at $246.95 and March feeders closed $1.57 higher at $245.55. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their mid-session point, feeder steers were trading steady to $4.00 higher and feeder heifers were trading steady to $3.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 48%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/25/2024: up $0.28, $249.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had another successful day as the contracts traded higher throughout the day thanks to continued support from consumers. It was impressive to see such significant gains in the pork cutout value this early in the week which likely means that consumers are hitting the pork section of the grocery store harder than retailers assumed they were going to. But today's ending carcass price wasn't because of a jolting rally in one single cut -- but every major cut closed higher, and the biggest day-over-day advancements were seen in the loin up $4.78, and the belly up $4.68. December lean hogs closed $0.95 higher at $80.62, February lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $84.22 and April lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $87.12. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $5.29 with a weighted average price of $80.95 on 2,964 head. Pork cutouts totaled 262.93 loads with 236.06 loads of pork cuts and 26.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.01, $101.95. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/24/2024: up $0.23, $85.43.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With packers somewhat aggressively buying hogs throughout Monday's trade, it leads one to believe that they're short bought and that prices could be higher in the days ahead especially with pork cutout values jumping higher.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Summarize Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far it's been a mixed day for the market as both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets are rallying, but the live cattle complex is unsure. Demand will be a key factor affecting the markets again this week as packers need to see continued consumer demand. December corn is down 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 274.42 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex seems to be caught in a holding mindset thus far through Monday's trade as the market hopes to find continued fundamental support this week but won't likely find the answers it hopes for until later in the week when the cash cattle market trades and until packers have a better understanding of what consumer demand is going to amount to last week. Thankfully, fundamental demand was ample last week as cash prices traded $2.00 higher, boxed beef prices saw consistent support and the week's slaughter was aggressive compared to weeks past at 623,000 head. The other factor that may be slightly hindering the live cattle complex this morning is that Friday's Cattle on Feed report showed that on-feed numbers were steady with last year -- but it's likely traders don't spend much time fretting over that report as thankfully other market fundamentals are strong and continue to be encouraging. December live cattle are down $0.17 at $188.97, February live cattle are down $0.07 at $189.85 and April live cattle are up $0.12 at $190.47. New showlists appear to be somewhat lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Kansas and Texas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $190 which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $298 which is also $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $2.37 ($324.61) and select down $0.66 ($294.42) with a movement of 44 loads (24.61 loads of choice, 9.66 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 9.76 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is rallying into Monday's noon hour as the market was well supported by Friday's Cattle on Feed report which showed placements down 2% compared to a year ago. Today's supportive nature has helped propel the spot January contract further above the market's 100-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold the market dances around. But if fundamental support continues to prevail this week, there's a chance that traders could advance the market to the point they're far from that previous resistance point and no longer worry about slipping below that price point. November feeders are up $0.30 at $248.87, January feeders are up $0.65 at $246.25 and March feeders are up $0.77 at $244.75.

LEAN HOGS:

With tremendous support from consumers, the lean hog complex is yet again rallying into Monday's noon hour. What's interesting about the pork cutout report this morning is that substantial gains are currently being seen across the vast majority of the cuts, which indicates that consumer demand is widespread. This morning the loin is up $6.54, the picnic is up $4.88 and the belly is up $4.09 -- to list the biggest gains seen this morning. December lean hogs are up $0.67 at $80.35, February lean hogs are up $0.37 at $83.80 and April lean hogs are up $0.15 at $85.80.

The projected lean hog index for 10/25/2024 is up $0.12 at $85.55 and the actual index for 10/24/2024 is up $0.22 at $85.43. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 199 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $74.97. Pork cutouts total 137.92 loads with 118.05 loads of pork cuts and 19.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.05, $102.99.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Expected To Open Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders were uncertain of the numbers the Cattle on Feed report would show, resulting in mixed trade to end Friday. The report came in slightly bearish with on-feed numbers as of Oct. 1 at 100% compared to the estimate of 99.7%. Placements in September were at 98% of last year compared to the estimate of 95.6%. Marketings were 102% compared to the estimate of 102.2%. The higher placement number was not unexpected as the dry conditions were thought to have moved more cattle to feedlots. Nevertheless, the trade usually reacts to which side of the estimates the actual numbers fall. The report may result in pressure on the market at the open Monday but traders will then focus back on the fundamentals, tighter cattle supply, and strong beef demand. Boxed beef prices Friday closed higher with choice up $1.07 and select up $0.74. The Commitments of Traders report showed managed money traders adding 4,524 long futures positions in live cattle, bringing their net-long position to 92,825 contracts. They added 618 long positions to feeder cattle, bringing the next long position to 8,275 contracts.

Hogs futures were able to close in positive territory Friday with contracts regaining the losses of the previous day and later contracts pushing to new highs. The cash market remained strong through the end of the week with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing cash up $0.41. The packers may take a wait-and-see attitude as they assess product movement over the weekend before aggressively purchasing hogs. The market may find support from cutouts increasing by $0.79 Friday. The September Cold Storage report showed stocks of pork bellies down 31% from August and down 40% from a year ago. Demand continues to remain strong. The Commitments of Traders report showed managed money traders adding 7,967 long hog futures contracts, bringing their net-long potion to 92,646 contracts. This is only 3,518 contracts shy of the record-long position set in 2013.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report may be viewed as neutral and may not have a negative influence on the recent strength in the market.	1)	High cattle placements and slightly higher on-feed numbers may put pressure on cattle futures to begin the week.
2)	Live cattle futures are nearing technical resistance and a break above those levels should support further buying interest.	2)	Live cattle futures are nearing technical resistance levels, which may trigger some selling if futures cannot move above those levels.
3)	Managed money traders continued to add to their long futures position in hogs as they anticipated the uptrend to continue.	3)	Funds are heavily long in hog futures and any bearish news or numbers could trigger liquidation.
4)	High cash hog prices Friday bodes well for the market with the packers paying up to purchase the hogs they need to maintain higher slaughter.	4)	The weakness of the outside markets could spill over into hog futures as traders may opt to liquidate some of their positions.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle, Lean Hogs Keep Momentum

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the live cattle contracts dipped lower, but both the feeder cattle and lean hog contracts were able to maintain their higher position through the day's end. No new cash cattle sales were reported throughout the day as packers did the vast majority of their buying on Thursday. December corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 259.96 points.

From Friday-to-Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $2.08, December live cattle up $1.83; October feeder cattle up $1.30, November feeder cattle up $0.98; December lean hogs up $1.85, February lean hogs up $1.58; December corn up $0.11, March corn up $0.11.

Friday's Cold Storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 1% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 6% from the previous month but down 2% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 1% from the previous month but down slightly from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 31% from last month and down 40% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though the market may have closed slightly lower Friday afternoon as traders checked out of the market early knowing that the Cattle on Feed report was going to be released shortly after the market's close, it was a tremendous week for the live cattle complex. With the support of tremendous beef demand and the $2.00 advancement in the cash market -- traders were able to pressure resistance on Thursday which is why traders felt OK leaving the market merely idle throughout Friday's hours. December live cattle closed $0.10 lower at $189.15, February live cattle closed $0.02 lower at $189.92 and April live cattle closed steady at $190.35. No new cash cattle trade was reported throughout the day as packers did most of their buying on Thursday. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded for $190 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded for $298 which is also $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 19,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 623,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.07 ($322.24) and select closed $0.74 ($295.08) with a movement of 87 loads (43.86 loads of choice, 15.38 loads of select, 8.78 loads of trim and 18.89 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given the fact that packers have increased throughput leads me to believe that they're chasing boxed beef sales and want to continue to capitalize on these high prices which may allow feedlot managers to price cattle steady/somewhat higher again next week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex closed lower Friday afternoon the feeder cattle contracts remained confident, and the spot January contract was able to maintain its position above the market's 100-day moving average through closing. I think more than anything traders knew that placements were going to be lighter than a year ago on the Cattle on Feed report, so they boldly continued to support the complex through the day's end. 

November feeders closed $0.05 higher at $248.57, January feeders closed $0.10 higher at $245.62 and March feeders closed $0.10 higher at $243.97. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that throughout the entire state and when compared to last week, feeder steers traded $1.00 to $4.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Steer calves sold $4.00 to $9.00 lower, but heifer calves sold $1.00 to $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/24/2024: down $0.47, $249.09.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed higher as traders were pleased to continue to see strong pork demand. And with the note in this afternoon's Cold Storage report, we may be able to expect continued support, especially for the belly which has been seeing significant price swings here lately. December lean hogs closed $1.02 higher at $79.67, February lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $83.42 and April lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $86.65. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.41 with a weighted average price of $75.66 on 3,083 head. Pork cutouts totaled 252.99 loads with 216.60 loads of pork cuts and 36.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.79, $98.94. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 10,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 156,000 head. The CME lean hog index 10/23/2024: up $0.54, $85.20.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers don't normally buy aggressively on Mondays and it's not likely that they'll need to next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Let Cattle Contracts Drift Lower Ahead of Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the monthly Cattle on Feed report scheduled to be released later this afternoon, it is no surprise to see traders playing it cautiously in the cattle complex ahead of that report's unveil. No new cash cattle trade has been noted and at this point, it's likely that the bulk of the week's trade is essentially done with. December corn is down 6 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 45.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After rallying substantially through Thursday's market, the live cattle complex is trading lower into Friday's noon hour as the week's momentum is beginning to fizzle out. And it's not unusual either to see the cattle complex trading cautiously ahead of the Cattle on Feed report's release. No new trade has been noted in the fed cash cattle market, and at this point, it looks like the bulk of the week's trade is virtually done with. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live cattle have been marked at $190 and Northern dressed cattle were sold at $298 -- both of which were $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. December live cattle are down $0.45 at $188.80, February live cattle are down $0.40 at $189.55 and April live cattle are down $0.37 at $189.97.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.92 ($322.09) and select up $0.97 ($295.31) with a movement of 59 loads (28.17 loads of choice, 10.82 loads of select, 8.52 loads of trim and 11.97 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle complex trading lower, it comes as no surprise that feeders are also trading hesitantly and are entering Friday's noon hour fully lower. The spot January feeder cattle contract continues to dance around the market's 100-day moving average as trades are uncertain if they possess enough support to boldly maintain their position above that threshold. Placements and on-feed totals are expected to be lighter than a year ago in this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report -- which would lend the feeder cattle market some support early next week. November feeders are down $1.17 at $247.35, January feeders are down $1.22 at $244.30 and March feeders are down $1.07 at $242.80.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is pleased to see a sharp spike in the morning's carcass price -- although the $3.40 jump is a little skewed as the belly alone jumped $10.76. But regardless of the rhyme or reason, traders are seeing higher cutout prices as a sign of improved demand which always bodes well for the market. December lean hogs are up $0.15 at $78.80, February lean hogs are up $0.02 at $82.82 and April lean hogs are up $0.10 at $86.35.

The projected lean hog index for 10/24/2024 is up $0.22 at $85.43 and the actual index for 10/23/2024 is up $0.54 at $85.20. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.93 with a weighted average price of $74.42, ranging from $74.00 to $77.00 on 1,634 head and a five-day rolling average of $74.85. Pork cutouts total 152.42 loads with 134.33 loads of pork cuts and 18.09 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.40, $101.55.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Will Position Ahead of the Cattle of Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The packers needed to purchase cattle and they did not wait until today to do it. Cash cattle jumped $2.00 for both Northern dressed and Southern live. The inability of the packers to hold the line on cash is a testimony of the leverage feedlots have maintained and the need for the packers to meet steady demand. Boxed beef prices were lower but that will not have much impact on the market after the strength that has been seen recently. Choice boxed beef was down $0.24 with select down $1.43. The larger influence Friday will be the Cattle on Feed report. Now that traders have adjusted to the higher cash, they will position themselves ahead of the report. The average estimate for cattle on feed as of Oct. 1 is 99.7% of a year ago with the range of estimates from 99.1% to $100.1%. Placements in September are estimated at 95.6% with a range of 94.2% to 99.0%. Marketings are estimated at 102.2% with a range of 98.1% to 103.4%.

Hog futures traded in negative territory in contracts through October 2025 on Thursday. There was an unwinding of spreads which put greater pressure on nearby contracts, eliminating Wednesday's gains and then some. First, traders did not like that weekly pork export sales were 42% below the previous week at 22,200 metric tons (mt). Secondly, it appeared the packers were not as aggressive in the cash market, eventually showing cash down $2.59 on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report. Pork cutouts showed some weakness with values down $0.07. The weakness of futures on Thursday did not change the strong uptrend but repositioned some traders ahead of the weekend and for the end of the month. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 154,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Higher cash cattle again this week bodes well for the market moving forward. Packer margins have improved and higher cash is the result as they need cattle.	1)	The percentage of placements on the Cattle on Feed report has always been a wild card. Traders may not want to be overly long in the market and will sell to position themselves for the report and the weekend.
2)	There has been a slight increase in heifer retention, but that has been limited. The rebuilding of the cattle herd will take time. Cattle supplies will remain tight for some time to come.	2)	Live cattle futures are near price resistance and may have difficulty penetrating it as futures are overbought.
3)	Hog futures remain in an uptrend with the strong slaughter pace indicating continued strong demand.	3)	Cash hogs are expected to be lower Friday, which could increase trader selling ahead of the weekend along with the fund traders holding near-record-long positions.
4)	Weekly hog weights increased by just 0.1 pounds last week reaching an average of 285.5 pounds. This is only 0.3 pounds above a year ago.	4)	The supply of market-ready hogs has been sufficient to meet the demand for the higher slaughter pace. The packers have not had to chase the market to find hogs.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Jump $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a thrilling day for the livestock complex as the cash cattle market was able to add another $2.00 to its market and both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed higher. Please note that on Friday the month's Cattle on Feed report will be released. December corn is up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 140.59 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 16,700 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 19% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,500 mt), China (4,600 mt) and Taiwan (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 22,200 mt for 2024 were down 42% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (17,000 mt), China (8,800 mt) and Australia (4,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

What a day it was for the live cattle complex as the market reached a new high for its current move which was largely thanks to the support of the relentless cash cattle market. Shortly after the noon hour, packers began to buy Southern cattle for $190 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at $298 which is also $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. It's somewhat surprising to see packers this aggressive in the market given that they've been able to buy some cattle with time in the last two weeks, but with boxed beef prices as high as they are, their margins have obviously improved. It would be remiss of me to also overlook the strategic marketing done by feedlot managers as they've been extremely dedicated to advancing the market and it has paid off 100-fold for them. December live cattle closed $1.37 higher at $189.25, February live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $189.95 and April live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $190.35. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.24 ($321.17) and select down $1.43 ($294.34) with a movement of 189 loads (132.85 loads of choice, 28.03 loads of select, 6.40 loads of trim and 22.09 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, it's likely that the week's prices are set.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following Wednesday's disappointing trade, Thursday ended up being a strong day for the feeder cattle complex as not only did the futures market recover its position lost through Wednesday's trade and continue to see strong technical support, but fundamental demand in the countryside continues to remain incredibly strong. The spot January feeder cattle contract was yet again able to close above its 100-day moving average which traders finally felt supported enough in doing so after seeing the fed cash cattle market trade higher. November feeders closed $1.30 higher at $248.52, January feeders closed $1.70 higher at $245.52 and March feeders closed $1.42 higher at $243.87. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week steers traded mostly $2.00 to $9.00 higher with instances of sharply higher prices across all weight groups. Feeder heifers sold $4.00 to $11.00 higher with higher instances as well. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 30%. The CME feeder cattle index: down $1.15, $249.56.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex wasn't able to round out the day on a higher note as the market wasn't pleased with its weekly export report, and in all fairness, just Wednesday afternoon the spot December contract scored a new contract high so one could argue that unless something substantial developed fundamentally that traders might pull back from Wednesday's sharp advancement. December lean hogs closed $1.52 lower at $78.65, February lean hogs closed $0.60 lower at $82.80 and April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $86.25. It didn't help matters either that the afternoon carcass price closed lower which was mostly deflated by the belly's $3.55 drop. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.59 with a weighted average price of $75.25 on 1,785 head. Pork cutouts total 337.15 loads with 299.15 loads of pork cuts and 38.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.07, $98.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/22/2024: up $0.32, $84.66.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have secured the vast majority of their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Back Away From Hog Market After a Disappointing Export Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another mixed day for the livestock complex as traders have waived their white flag in the hog complex after helping the December contract reach a new contract high just Wednesday; oppositely the cattle complex is again trading higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 310.58 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 16,700 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 19% from the previous week and 11% of the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (6,500 mt), China (4,600 mt) and Taiwan (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 22,200 mt for 2024 were down 42% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (17,000 mt), China (8,800 mt) and Australia (4,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher at Thursday's noon hour although a few of the furthest deferred contracts are trading slightly lower. More than anything, Thursday's higher tone seems to be a slight bounce back from Wednesday's decline. December live cattle are up $0.22 at $188.10, February live cattle are up $0.57 at $189.20, and April live cattle are up $0.47 at $189.75. With boxed beef prices showing some weakness early Thursday, packers may be more patient to wait and bid on cattle until the very end of the week as they know feedlot managers are going to scrape for at least steady prices. It wouldn't be unlikely to see trade delayed until Friday's bitter end and after the week's Cattle on Feed report is released. There is a single bid of $186 currently offered in Nebraska, but the other side the market is completely silent. Asking prices are noted in the South at $190-plus but have not yet been established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.05 ($320.36) and select down $0.68 ($295.09) with a movement of 87 loads (51.63 loads of choice, 17.21 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 17.69 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is following the live cattle market's direction yet again as it too wants to begin to recover from some of Wednesday's descent. Currently, the spot January contract is still trading below its 100-day moving average as traders are skeptical if there's enough support in the market currently to advance beyond that resistance plane. November feeders are up $0.45 at $247.67, January feeders are up $0.77 at $244.60, and March feeders are up $0.57 at $243.02.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is currently lower as traders are disappointed in the morning's export report and need further fundamental support if they're going to advance the market any higher. It's going to be challenging for the market to trade much higher until fundamental support steam rolls into the marketplace as just Wednesday the spot December contract reached a new contract high. Nevertheless, it's likely that weakness could follow the market through closing. December lean hogs are down $1.60 at $78.57, February lean hogs are down $0.87 at $82.52, and April lean hogs are down $0.50 at $86.02.

Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.16 with a weighted average price of $75.35, ranging from $74.00 to $76.00 on 230 head and a five-day rolling average of $74.73. Pork cutouts total 184.84 loads with 153.60 loads of pork cuts and 31.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.82, $97.40.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Assess Further Price Potential

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures looked like they would hold above resistance for a while, but buying dried up as higher futures did not generate further buying interest Wednesday. With the Cattle on Feed report on Friday, traders did not seem interested in holding onto newly established long positions if they did not generate greater potential. Cash cattle did not trade, leaving the market in limbo. It is doubtful cattle will trade Thursday as feedlots hope for greater strength in boxed beef and higher futures before deciding whether to sell at even money or hold for higher prices. Boxed beef prices were mixed Wednesday with choice down $2.55 and select up $0.97. The average estimate for cattle on feed as of Oct. 1 is 99.7% of a year ago. Placements in September are estimated at 95.6%. Marketings are estimated at 102.2%.

Hog futures were the recipients of bull spreading with nearby months higher and deferred contracts closing slightly lower Wednesday. The October through August contracts made new contract highs with December through May holding those highs. The December contract is reducing the discount to the price at which the October contract went off the board. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.73. Pork cutouts gained $0.95. Packers are not expected to be as aggressive Thursday and will bid lower prices to see how many hogs they can purchase. They may step up more aggressively Friday if they do not obtain what they need.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If the estimates of lower placements and increased marketing in September are realized, cattle prices should remain supported.	1)	There may be further liquidation ahead of the Cattle on Feed report as the report many times holds a bearish surprise.
2)	Feedlots are asking for higher prices and if they are unable to receive those prices, they may hold for another week.	2)	Higher beef prices may be impacting international demand. Weekly export sales may be lower again Thursday.
3)	Hog futures continue to make new contract highs as it seems the hogs are not out there as anticipated, keeping traders bullish.	3)	New contract highs in hogs cannot be sustained without the market correcting. That could trigger some fund liquidation for a few days. .
4)	Demand for pork is strong, requiring packers to hold an aggressive slaughter pace that continues to outpace a year ago.	4)	The packers may pay less for hogs Thursday and hope they will be able to purchase sufficient supplies for the week.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Dive Lower Thanks to Equity Market Weakness

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts plummeted upon seeing the Dow Jones trade 300 to 400 points lower throughout the day, but the lean hog complex wasn't fazed and continued to trade higher through closing. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. December corn is up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 409.94 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It comes as no surprise that with the equity markets falling the live cattle complex also followed suit. Throughout the day the Dow Jones traded anywhere from 300 to 400 points lower which sucked all the energy and momentum out of the live cattle market's sail. Earlier in the day the market was trading confidently and even broke out of its current trading range and took on the market's long-term resistance at $188.50 in the spot December contract, but traders quickly pulled the market lower once external pressures began to build. December live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $187.87, February live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $188.62 and April live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $189.27. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and there's a chance the week's trade could be delayed until after Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Asking prices are noted in the South at $190 plus but remain unestablished still in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.55 ($321.41) and select up $0.97 ($295.77) with a movement of 136 loads (84.49 loads of choice, 25.84 loads of select, 12.24 loads of trim and 13.44 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Even though the futures market traded lower throughout the day, I don't think feedlot managers will be willing to trade cattle this week for anything less than steady money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market followed the live cattle complex's retreat but pushed its contracts down more drastically as the contracts closed anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower. Consequently, the spot January contract did close below its 100-day moving average once again. November feeders closed $1.70 lower at $247.22, January feeders closed $2.22 lower at $243.82 and March feeders closed $2.42 lower at $242.45. At Tri-State Livestock Auction in McCook, Nebraska compared to last week steer calves sold $4.00 to $6.00 lower and heifer calves traded $3.00 to $7.00 lower. Sharp declines were noticed on any steers or heifers that hadn't been preconditioned. Buyers were drastically more interested in buying cattle that had had fall vaccination and respiratory shots as calves have been more prone to being sick this fall with the increase in dust from the lack of moisture. The CME feeder cattle index 10/22/2024: up $0.06, $250.71.

LEAN HOGS:

It was impressive that the lean hog complex was able to defend its higher position throughout the day despite the fact that external equity pressures were significant. And to be clear, Wednesday's higher close wasn't done modestly as the $1.05 jump in the spot December contract was a new all-time high for the contract. Thankfully the continued stable support of stronger pork cutout values is helping traders continue with the market's advancement despite the recent weakness seen in the equity sector. December lean hogs closed $1.05 higher at $80.17, February lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $83.40 and April lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $86.52. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.73 with a weighted average price of $77.84 on 2,539 head. Pork cutouts totaled 305.87 loads with 271.76 loads of pork cuts and 34.11 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.95, $98.22. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week and a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/21/2024: $0.11, $84.34.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that packers will again need to be somewhat aggressive in Thursday's cash market to secure enough supply to keep up with demand.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Pedal Backwards as the Dow Dips Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a whiplash type of day for the livestock complex as at the start of Wednesday's session the market was trading fully higher as trader interest was robust and consumer demand remains ample. But with the U.S. dollar strengthening and the Dow Jones dipping over 300 points lower ahead of Wednesday's noon hour, technical pressure set in over the livestock complex as traders worry about the equity markets and export opportunities. December corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 353.91 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Watching the live cattle complex trade Wednesday morning has been bewildering and, yet again, another example of just how fast traders can change their minds and turn the market's direction. Early Wednesday morning, the livestock complex was thriving as traders were pushing all three of the markets higher. But upon seeing the Dow Jones break and turn lower, the livestock contracts, including the live cattle market, all turned lower. The spot December contract broke resistance Wednesday morning before turning lower, which begs one question: Was the market's turns solely because of external equity pressures? Or did traders also decide the market doesn't have enough steam behind it to take on its current resistance thresholds? Time will tell, but for today, skepticism has settled into the marketplace. There still hasn't been any news of cash cattle trade developing, but asking prices are noted in the South at $190-plus and remain unestablished still in the North. Trade won't likely develop until Thursday at the earliest. December live cattle are down $0.70 at $187.42, February live cattle are down $0.70 at $188.12, and April live cattle are down $0.72 at $188.77.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.08 ($324.08) and select up $1.37 ($296.17) with a movement of 67 loads (43.92 loads of choice, 16.77 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.59 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is also trading lower and is currently trading anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower. The spot January contract is back below its 100-day moving average as the market simply didn't have the trader support it needed to sustain being above the market's moving average. November feeders are down $1.85 at $247.07, Janauy feeders are down $2.27 at $243.87, and March feeders are down $2.70 at $242.17.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was also affected by the day's external equity pressure but has quickly zipped back to higher prices and is currently trading fully higher into Wednesday's noon hour. The strength behind the lean hog market's rally is robust and thankfully the day's higher note of morning cutout prices being higher doesn't hurt either. December lean hogs are up $0.97 at $80.10, February lean hogs are up $0.65 at $83.45, and April lean hogs are up $0.37 at $86.60.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 10/22/2024 is up $0.32 at $84.66, and the actual index for 10/21/2024 is up $0.11 at $84.34. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.33 with a weighted average price of $75.51, ranging from $70.00 to $79.00 on 674 head and a five-day rolling average of $74.81. Pork cutouts total 188.53 loads with 169.49 loads of pork cuts and 19.05 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.13, $98.40.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Continue to Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders are optimistic over cash this week and are not shy about supporting the market. Cash trade may not take place until Friday but the anticipation is for no less than steady cash. The upcoming Cattle on Feed report was not enough to keep the market in a choppy sideways range. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.10 and select down $1.41, but that is not expected to put much pressure on futures Wednesday. Feedlots are hoping for further strength in futures, helping to provide some leverage for higher cash this week. The cattle numbers are tight and it sems the reduction of slaughter is having little impact on backing up cattle. Feedlots are not being forced to moved them and are able to hold for higher prices.

Hog futures continue to trend higher with February through October contracts setting new contract highs Tuesday. The packers remained aggressive with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $1.89 with the past two days eliminating the loss of cash on Friday and then some. Pork cutouts did not fare as well with values down $0.97. There is a strong possibility packers will remain aggressive Wednesday as they will need to purchase more hogs and will pay more to get them. The weakness of cutouts may temper gains but the uptrend should remain intact.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Traders are optimistic cash will be no worse than steady with the potential for higher cash due to lighter show lists.	1)	The Cattle on Feed report could show more animals in feedlots due to dry conditions that developed during the summer and fall.
2)	Demand for beef is holding well, keeping the packers paying up for cattle. Cattle prices are expected to remain strong for the foreseeable future.	2)	Live cattle futures have steady cash factored in, which may limit further upside potential prior to cash trading this week.
3)	Traders remain confident hog prices will increase as the year progresses. Greater demand due to high beef prices should support the cash hog prices.	3)	Traders may become increasingly nervous at these higher levels and funds holding near a record long position. Any fundamental change could send the market quickly lower.
4)	Traders continue to trade with the trend. Even though cash and cutouts have been choppy, prices are expected to improve through the end of the year.	4)	Aggressive buying interest may slow at these new highs. The underlying cash and cutout prices will need to support these levels or the market will correct.