GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle complex was well supported through Friday's end which largely was because the cash cattle market ended up trading higher again this week which helped keep traders engaged in the sector. Southern live cattle traded at $186 ($1.00 higher than last week's weighted average) and Northern dressed cattle traded at $296 ($2.00 higher than last week's weighted average). December corn is down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 341.16 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $3.25, December live cattle up $2.53; October feeder cattle up $2.55, November feeder cattle up $3.58; October lean hogs up $1.98, December lean hogs up $2.78; December corn up $0.07, March corn up $0.07.
LIVE CATTLE:
And once again, feedlot managers' patience paid off as cash prices trend higher yet again! Around the noon hour, Southern live cattle were being reported at $186 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and later in the afternoon dressed deals started to be noted at $296 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Between the futures market's strong advancement this past week which pushed the nearby contracts back to the price points at which the market was trading before the equity meltdown in early August, combined with the cash cattle market's $1.00 to $2.00 jump -- this past week's market was another fruitful endeavor for cattlemen. But upon seeing that noncommercials jumped 16,744 contracts as of October 1, I'm concerned that next week's market may be pressured technically as some may choose to liquate their position as the market's become overbought. But if boxed beef prices can hold steady or trend slightly higher and cash prices again trade higher, maybe the futures complex will remain stable. As always, time will tell.
October live cattle closed $1.00 higher at $187.00, December live cattle closed $0.60 higher at $187.00 and February live cattle closed $0.20 higher at $187.95.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 108,000 head -- 8,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 12,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 611,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.78 ($302.58) and select up $4.32 ($287.61) with a movement of 105 loads (65.58 loads of choice, 18.13 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 21.00 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before we can accurately say how next week's market may trend, we need to see on Monday how many cattle were bought this past week and for what delivery option.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex rallied through Friday's end, but the market wasn't willing to take on the resistance at the market's 100-day moving average. October feeders closed $0.65 higher at $249.62, November feeders closed $1.15 higher at $249.27 and January feeders closed $1.82 higher at $244.37. This past week's market was a "perfect storm" for the feeder cattle complex as the live cattle contracts helped encourage higher trade throughout the futures complex, and with the cash cattle market trading higher, feeder cattle buyers in the countryside remained aggressive as well. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, throughout the entire state feeder steers traded $1.00 to $4.00 higher and feeder heifers sold $1.00 to $3.00 higher. Steer calves sold steady to $3.00 higher and heifer calves traded $2.00 to $6.00 higher. There was a special note that calves under 400 pounds traded as much as $20.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 55%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/3/2024: down $1.47, $246.78.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex's support fizzled out before Friday's close as the market lacked enough fundamental support to keep traders engaged in the marketplace. Pork cutout values again closed lower again which didn't sit well with traders either as they're longing to see stable consumer support. But the carcass price was mostly pulled lower by the butt's $1.70 drop and the picnic's $1.41 decline being the most extreme. October lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $84.02, December lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $76.15 and February lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $79.82. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.90 with a weighted average price of $74.89 on 490 head. Pork cutouts total 287.45 loads with 248.99 loads of pork cuts and 38.45 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $).49, $94.31. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 173,000 head. The CME lean hog index 10/2/2024: up $0.45, $84.90.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers won't likely jump into Monday's cash market aggressively as they'll want to gain a sense of what demand is going to be for the week before they do so.
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