Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Ease Their Support of Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a disappointing day for the livestock complex as traders weren't as aggressive in their support of the market as all three of the markets closed lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and the week's trade could be delayed again until Friday as feedlot managers aim to see prices advance again this week. December corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 431.63 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has seemed to run out of momentum and rounded out Wednesday's trade slightly lower across all the contracts. The real question that everyone is asking is: Is the market stalling to see what cash cattle prices do, or is the market topping? Determining the outcome of that question could easily be done with a coin as it's somewhat likely that if cash cattle prices trade stronger again this week traders could continue to press onward. However, if fundamental support weakens even the slightest bit, traders could elect to see the market's overbought nature as a reason to pull the plug and let prices venture lower again. So once again this week, not only will we be waiting to see how the cash cattle market fairs later this week, but also how traders react to the cash market's developments. October live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $188.20, December live cattle closed $0.65 lower at $187.22 and February live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $188.17. A single bid was offered throughout the day in Iowa at $187 but no cattle traded. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 but remain unestablished still for the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.34 ($308.18) and select up $0.02 ($288.63) with a movement of 189 loads (138.06 loads of choice, 31.93 loads of select, 3.26 loads of trim and 16.10 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: $1.00 higher. I remain optimistic that feedlot managers are committed to advancing the market given that they hold the lion's share of the market's leverage and are in a position in which they can simply roll over this week's showlist if prices aren't what they desire.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market endured a slightly more strenuous day than the live cattle market did as traders saw the live cattle market's lower trend as a reason to duck back below the market's 100-day moving average in the spot November contract. Even though demand remains incredibly strong in the countryside, traders seemed only concerned about how traders reacted throughout the day and didn't give much merit to buyer demand in the countryside unfortunately. October feeders closed $1.05 lower at $249.27, November feeders closed $1.62 lower at $248.67 and January feeders closed $1.57 lower at $245.87. At Winter Livestock Auction in Riverton, Wyoming compared to last week yearling steers traded steady with instances of $7.00 to $8.00 higher and yearling heifers traded mostly $5.00 to $8.00 higher with instances of $11.00 to $12.00 higher. Steers under 500 pounds sold $12.00 to $20.00 higher and steers over 500 pounds sold mostly $6.00 to $8.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 43%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/8/2024: up $0.73, $249.48.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed lower as the market is somewhat concerned about what Friday's WASDE report is going to unveil in terms of consumer demand later this year and into 2025. Yes, afternoon cutout values closed slightly higher, but with demand being hit or miss this week, today's slight $0.39 jump wasn't enough to ease trader's concerns. December lean hogs closed $1.60 lower at $75.57, February lean hogs closed $1.32 lower at $79.45 and April lean hogs closed $1.10 lower at $83.97. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.32 with a weighted average price of $75.16 on 2,372 head. Pork cutouts totaled 308.37 loads with 267.59 loads of pork cuts and 40.79 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.39. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/7/2024: down $0.04, $84.22.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values being softer this week it's likely that packers could be essentially done buying already this week in the cash market.