Thursday, October 31, 2024

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lower, Lackadaisical Tones Push Most Livestock Contracts Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a dreary day for the livestock complex as most of the contracts closed lower as traders remain cautious about overly supporting the complex. It's looking like the bulk of this week's cash cattle trade is done. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 378.08 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 13,900 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were down 17% from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The three largest increases were from South Korea (4,900 mt), China (3,200 mt) and Japan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 44,800 mt for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 16% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (17,700 mt), China (10,400 mt) and Japan (4,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex endured another disappointing day where the market's biggest change was again the futures complex. Thankfully today's lower end wasn't a sharp decline like the market's seen over the last two previous days, but rather instead traders let the market chop sideways/somewhat lower through the day's end as there simply wasn't enough support in the complex to confidently advance the contracts. The nearby contracts (December 2024, February 2025 and April 2025) all closed lower, but the deferred contracts were able to close mildly higher. December live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $186.30, February live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $186.77 and April live cattle closed $0.25 lower at $187.35. A few bids were offered throughout the day for the cash cattle market, but no trade developed. At this point, a few more clean-up sales could develop but all in all, it's looking like the week's trade is essentially done with. Thus far throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $190, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $296 to $298, which is steady to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.84 ($317.60) and select down $3.95 ($285.37) with a movement of 139 loads (84.02 loads of choice, 29.23 loads of select, 9.62 loads of trim and 16.22 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that prices have been set in both regions, any clean-up trade that does develop on Friday will likely be steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was another doggish day for the feeder cattle complex as the market traded lower throughout the entire day as no support surfaced from the live cattle complex. Thankfully today's close wasn't another downward leg for the market, instead, the complex closed merely sideways with Wednesday's end. At this point, the market is limited to trading in any direction but steady/somewhat lower until fundamental support and confidence reemerge. November feeders closed $0.12 lower at $245.37, January feeders closed $0.65 lower at $241.32 and March feeders closed $0.77 lower at $239.07. At Kist Livestock Auction in Mandan, North Dakota, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 450 to 500 pounds sold $18.00 higher, steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold steady to $1.00 lower, but steers weighing 600 to 650 pounds traded $9.00 higher. The sale did note that spring calves with two rounds of shows brought a premium. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 33%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/30/2024: up $1.14, $251.20.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed as the market's nearby contracts closed slightly lower, but the deferred contracts powered through the day's end. December lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $83.80, February lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $85.20 and April lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $88.10. Thankfully pork cutout values closed higher again this afternoon which should come as a reassuring factor to traders -- especially since every single major cut closed higher. However, the nearby contracts may choose to chop sideways throughout the remainder of the week as they need continued support to justify trading the contracts any higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.10 with a weighted average price of $82.70 on 1,605 head. Pork cutouts totaled 344.61 loads with 281.75 loads of pork cuts and 62.85 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.54, $103.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/29/2024: up $1.05, $86.78.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that Thursday's market hardly saw any attention from traders it's likely that Friday's market will be even less supported.




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