Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Help Advance Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a successful day for the livestock complex as traders remained committed to supporting the markets through Tuesday's end. A handful of cattle sold at steady prices with last week's weighted average, but largely the cash market still hasn't established a trend for this week. December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 382.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to round out Tuesday on a higher note as traders found it supportive that boxed beef prices were higher at noon which ultimately helped propel the market higher through the remainder of the day. December live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $184.40, February live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $186.12, and April live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $187.70. Today's higher close did enable the spot December contract to close above its 100-day moving average, which remains a threshold the market continues to dance around. A few cash cattle sales were reported at mostly steady prices with last week's trade, but by no means has a trend been established for this week's market. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189 but remain unestablished still in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.06 ($308.27) and select down $1.92 ($279.92) with a movement of 123 loads (69.93 loads of choice, 37.37 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 16.46 loads of ground beef).

WEDNEDSAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers sit with a plethora of cattle committed to them, it's assumed prices will trade steady at best this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle contracts turn higher and deeming it was safe to trade higher, the feeder cattle market also changed its demeanor and successfully closed higher. November feeders closed $0.67 higher at $246.82, January feeders closed $1.32 higher at $243.57, and March feeders closed $1.67 higher at $241.72. The spot January contract was able to close above both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, but the market will likely be pressured to support that decision through the remainder of the week. From a fundamental standpoint, the market remains well supported as buyer demand has been exceptional already this week in sales across the country. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week feeder steers were trading $2.00 to $4.00 higher except the 600 to 700 pound steers which traded $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to $2.00 higher and steer and heifer calves old $15.00 to $20.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 11/11/2024: down $0.19, $249.64.

LEAN HOGS:

With traders fully onboard to continue to support the lean hog complex despite whatever the market's fundamentals seem to do -- traders elected to push the contracts higher through Tuesday's end. December lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $82.35, February lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $86.32, and April lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $90.12. The spot December contract is still below resistance levels, but the February contract inched beyond current resistance thresholds as traders seem more than confident in their decision to continue to support the sector. Thankfully cash prices were slightly higher Tuesday afternoon which could be thought of as a small token of fundamental support. But yet again, the afternoon carcass price fell lower as the belly's sharp descent pulled the average back. December lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $82.35, February lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $86.32, and April lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $90.12. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.27 with a weighted average price of $84.79 on 5,793 head. Pork cutouts totaled 379.60 loads with 340.95 loads of pork cuts and 38.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.78, $97.68. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 11/8/2024: down $0.41, $90.02.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely need to be aggressive at least one more day in this week's cash market; but given that pork cutout values are softer this week, it's likely prices will remain steady.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Support From Equity Markets Helps Drive Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the uptick in the equity markets is helping drive positive momentum throughout the livestock contracts. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189. December corn is down 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 253.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Originally the live cattle complex was reluctant to trade higher but as Tuesday progressed traders have changed their tune and now the market is modestly higher into Tuesday's noon hour. Seeming to help add a little additional fundamental support is the higher note of morning boxed beef prices, which was the theme throughout Monday's trade as well. It's still too early in the week for any cash cattle trade to have developed, but it's expected that prices will be steady at best. Asking prices are noted in the South at $188 to $189 but are still not established in the North. The change in the market's direction has thankfully pulled the spot December contract away from its 100-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold the market is contemplating. December live cattle are up $0.80 at $184.47, February live cattle are up $0.80 at $186.17, and April live cattle are up $0.95 at $187.70.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.61 ($308.82) and select up $0.36 ($282.20) with a movement of 71 loads (39.79 loads of choice, 22.43 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.80 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Tuesday's noon hour as the market continues to follow closely in line with whatever the live cattle market does. November feeders are up $0.35 at $246.50, January feeders are up $0.95 at $243.20, and March feeders are up $1.17 at $241.22. The spot January contract is trading slightly above both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, but the market will need continued support if it's going to maintain its elevated position through Tuesday's end and later this week.

LEAN HOGS:

It's interesting to watch the dynamics currently in the lean hog complex as the nearby contracts are trading slightly higher, but the deferred months are trending mostly lower. From a solely fundamental sense, you'd expect the hog complex to be trading slightly lower as this morning yet again pork cutout values are lower because of a significant drop in the belly (down $8.92) and there has not been enough competition in the cash market for hog prices to even be reported. But with the equity markets thriving, the nearby contracts are choosing to continue to trade higher. December lean hogs are up $0.70 at $82.47, February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $86.35, and April lean hogs are down $0.07 at $89.90.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/11/2024 is down $0.14 at $89.88, and the actual index for 11/8/2024 is down $0.41 at $90.02. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 3,563 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $84.01. Pork cutouts total 196.68 loads with 181.65 loads of pork cuts and 15.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.23, $99.23.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Strong Pork Demand Pushes Prices Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures closed higher Monday but are struggling to gain solid footing. It was positive to see higher boxed beef with choice up $0.28 and select up $2.65. This pattern was seen last week, only to see boxed beef prices resume weakness as time progressed. A similar pattern could be seen this week. Futures need to find support soon or the market could see another liquidation phase. Cattle supplies have not suddenly increased but demand has slowed for the time being. There is no slowing down in demand for feeder cattle as available supplies are tighter and the outlook for cattle prices remains positive.

Hog futures posted another strong day Monday with the front-month December leading the way. Trader optimism is strong, and they have been buying and holding for the long haul. An overbought market showed a price correction in nearby contracts while later contracts continued to make new highs. The packers stepped up aggressively Monday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $1.85. Cutout values were down $0.92 -- not surprising after the large gain seen Friday. The June and July contracts are knocking on the door of $100, which has not been seen for a while.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Feeder cattle prices remain strong as numbers are tight which should continue to support live cattle. The cattle herd is not yet in a rebuilding stage.	1)	Boxed beef prices have been unable to find solid support as high beef prices have impacted demand.
2)	Nearby live and feeder cattle contracts have chart gaps above the market that may be filled sooner rather than later.	2)	Traders are cautious as the beef market could follow a similar pattern as last year by making a substantial price correction into the end of the year.
3)	Hog futures continue to make new highs as traders are not shy about increasing their long positions. Traders are following the trend.	3)	Managed money traders are holding a record-long position and any change in fundamentals or psychology could trigger liquidation of hog futures.
4)	Hog numbers are not out there as had been anticipated. This has kept the packers more aggressive as demand has improved and margins are good. This will keep slaughter active.	4)	The higher hog prices go and the larger the managed money position, the more nervous technical traders become and the larger the price decline if the market changes.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was able to round out the day on a higher note, as traders were pleased to see stronger boxed beef prices, which helped turn both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts higher ahead of the day's end. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas. December corn is down 1 cent per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 304.14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to scrape together enough support ahead of the day's end to close mildly higher Monday afternoon. December live cattle closed steady at $183.70, February live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $185.37, and April live cattle closed $0.22 higher at $186.75. More than anything, Monday's slight uptick before the bell closed seemed to be because traders found some fundamental support in the market's higher midday boxed beef prices, which, thankfully, was again found in Monday's closing box prices. Last week, prices trended lower, and while feedlot managers hope that prices hold steady and consumer demand shows favor to the beef cuts, there's a good chance that seasonally speaking, prices are pressured again this week. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded for mostly $187, which is $3 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $294, which is also $3 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 50,010 head. Of that, 83% (41,519 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (8,391 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.28 ($308.21) and select up $2.65 ($281.84) with a movement of 126 loads (84.39 loads of choice, 19.68 loads of select, 7.45 loads of trim and 14.06 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Given that packers sit with ample supplies of cattle committed to them, it's likely that prices will trade steady at best this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to close slightly higher Monday afternoon, as the market inched higher once it saw the live cattle complex trading higher. But what was potentially the most impressive note throughout the day for the feeder cattle market was the continued demand in the countryside for feeders and calves. Prices were noted as sharply higher in numerous sale reports, as buyers are still needing more cattle for their pens. November feeders closed $0.72 higher at $246.15, January feeders closed $0.82 higher at $242.25 and March feeders closed $0.67 higher at $240.05. Unfortunately, even with the day's higher end, the spot January contract still closed below the market's 40- and 100-day moving averages, as technical support has been extremely hit or miss for the feeder cattle market here as of late. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week and at their mid-session point, feeder steers under 725 pounds were selling anywhere from $5 to $20 higher with heavier weights selling steady to $3 higher. Feeder heifers were trading steady to $10 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/8/2024: down $0.03, $249.83.

LEAN HOGS:

Wide price swings in the belly continue to be a norm for the market right now, and once again, the afternoon carcass price was pulled lower, mostly because of the $11.18 decline in the belly. However, traders continue to support the market, and as long as demand improves later this week, they may be able to maintain their confidence. But given that the market is close to resistance thresholds, fundamental demand will become more important. December lean hogs closed $1.35 higher at $81.77, February lean hogs closed $1.10 higher at $85.92 and April lean hogs closed $0.72 higher at $89.97. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.85 with a weighted average price of $83.52 on 3,373 head. Pork cutouts totaled 278.70 loads with 241.67 loads of pork cuts and 37.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.92, $101.46. The CME lean hog index 11/7/2024: down $0.18, $90.43.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Even though packers won't be thrilled to see the afternoon carcass price lower, it's likely that they're still going to need to be engaged in Tuesday's cash market, as they weren't very active in the cash market late last week.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Dominate Complex Early in Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a mixed start this week as traders continue to support the lean hog contracts but aren't as confident in supporting the cattle contracts. It is positive, however, that midday boxed beef prices are higher, which could help traders feel more confident about supporting the live cattle complex at least. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 355.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts have been in a bit of a slump thus far through Monday's trade, but with boxed beef prices higher at midday, there's a chance if the market's fundamentals prevail traders could turn the futures direction around to higher prices later this week. December live cattle are down $0.10 at $183.57, February live cattle are down $0.10 at $185.20, and April live cattle are down $0.07 at $186.47. The market is still maintaining its position above the 100-day moving average, but unless traders find some technical footing, that average could be tested. It is worth noting that last week's cash cattle trade only totaled 50,010 head, which means this week's market could see better packer demand. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $187 which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $294 which is also $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 50,010 head. Of that 83% (41,519 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (8,391 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.23 ($308.16) and select up $0.55 ($279.74) with a movement of 80 loads (58.31 loads of choice, 10.88 loads of select, 3.60 loads of trim and 6.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as the market needs to see better technical interest before it will confidently move higher. Monday's lower break does push the spot January contract below both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, which never is a thriving technical sign. November feeders are up $0.27 at $245.70, January feeders are down $0.25 at $241.17, and March feeders are down $0.37 at $239.00. Thankfully, again last week we saw tremendous buyer demand in the countryside for both feeders and calves; as long as that buyer interest remains prevalent throughout the market, at least traders can note the continued support from the market's fundamentals.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though morning pork cutout values are slightly lower, the lean hog complex is still trading somewhat higher as traders continue to support the market faithfully. Last week we saw wild swings in the belly which affected the carcass price, and again this week it would appear as though that's going to be the trend as this morning the belly is down $13.73. December lean hogs are up $1.07 at $81.50, February lean hogs are up $0.90 at $85.72, and April lean hogs are up $0.47 at $89.72.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/8/2024 is down $0.41 at $90.02, and the actual index for 11/7/2024 is down $0.18 at $90.43. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 978 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.52. Pork cutouts total 167.41 loads with 145.22 loads of pork cuts and 22.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.11, $102.27.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Increase Record-Long Hog Futures Position

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The market anticipated cash would be lower and that took place Friday. Both Northern dressed cattle and Southern live cattle traded $3.00 lower as feedlots needed to let their cattle go and not hold out for another week. The weakness of boxed beef indicates slower demand. That may not bode well for this week either. The packers continue to work the slaughter pace to their advantage and will continue to do so as they need to improve margins with boxed beef prices continuing to decline. On Friday, boxed beef was lower in both categories with choice down $1.53 and select down $0.53. The WASDE report released Friday was positive as USDA raised their estimated cattle prices for the next four quarters. Bear in mind these are estimates and market fundamentals may dictate otherwise as time progresses. The Commitments of Traders report showed the fund traders added 937 contacts of live cattle, bringing their net-long futures position to 101,453 contracts. They added 2,379 futures contracts of feeder cattle, bringing the net-long position to 10,130 contracts.

Hog futures continue to hold well despite the recent selling in the nearby December contract as bull spreads were unwound and are moving closer in line with cash. The February and later contracts made new highs Friday, supported by strong demand and the strength of cutouts. Cutouts values gained $4.42 Friday, supported by a huge increase in bellies of $19.54 and ribs up $5.38. Cash did not fare as well with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a loss of $3.36. The packers may not be aggressive Monday as they may wait to see the weekend pork movement before being more aggressive. USDA increased price expectations for pork for the next year on the WASDE report. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders remaining bullish on the market, adding 13,900 futures contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 121,069 contracts and another record long position.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have corrected from their overbought technical status which may increase the desire of traders to step back in for the longer term once the Goldman Roll is finished this week.	1)	Cattle futures are trending lower and further losses could trigger increased selling by the fund traders.
2)	The December live cattle and the November and January feeder cattle contracts have chart gaps above the market that may be closed at some point.	2)	Lower boxed beef prices reflect lower demand which will keep packers less aggressive..
3)	Strong demand for pork continues to support the market and keep traders willing to hold and add to their long positions.	3)	The fund traders hold a record-long futures position, and any fundamental weakness could trigger selling.
4)	The hog numbers that had been anticipated are not out there. Packers are more aggressive with their weekly purchases.	4)	The hog supply may not be as abundant as anticipated but there remains sufficient hogs available for demand, which may limit the aggressiveness of packers.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Prices Trade $3 Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday ended up being a mixed day for the livestock complex, as although the deferred lean hog contracts closed higher, most of the livestock complex closed slightly lower. Throughout the day, some more cash cattle trade was reported, and Southern live cattle were marked at $187 and Northern dressed cattle at $294 -- both of which are $3 lower than last week's weighted average. December corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 259.65 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $2.22, February live cattle down $1.60; November feeder cattle down $1.45, January feeder cattle down $1.77; December lean hogs down $3.65, February lean hogs down $1.20; December corn up $0.17, March corn up $0.15.

LIVE CATTLE:

As the funds begin to roll their positions to deferred months, the live cattle complex came under some pressure, as it not only battled some technical pressure from the start of the Goldman roll, but traders were left unsupported by the market's fundamentals, as not only did boxed beef prices drift lower through the week's end, but cash prices traded lower too. Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $187 this week, and Northern dressed sales were marked at $294, both of which are $3 lower than last week's weighted average. It was disappointing, however, to see the spark fizzle out in the spot December contract, as its close was below the market's 40-day moving average. December live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $183.70, February live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $185.30, and April live cattle closed $1.72 lower at $186.52. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 619,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Friday's WASDE report was very supportive to the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025. Beef production for 2024 was increased by 25 million pounds, as dressed weights are significantly heavier than originally assumed, and cow processing speeds aren't expected to decline through the year's end, which more than offsets the decrease in the fed cattle slaughter. Beef production for 2025 was also increased by 355 million pounds, as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase. Feedlot managers will be pleased to see quarterly steer prices were increased from last month's projection, as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2 from last month); steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $188 (up $1); steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1); and steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $186 (up $1). Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 125 million pounds, as packers need more processing type of cuts, but exports for 2024 also saw a slight increase of 5 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 90 million pounds, but 2025 exports were also increased by 100 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($307.93) and select down $0.53 ($279.19) with a movement of 151 loads (93.84 loads of choice, 17.23 loads of select, 10.19 loads of trim and 29.98 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With boxed beef prices trading lower and packers sitting on plenty of inventory, it's unlikely that they'll have to be aggressive enough in the cash market to where prices trade higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex traded right in line with what the live cattle market did this week, and Friday's trade was no different. The only thing that really separated the live cattle market's outlook compared to that of the feeder cattle market's is that from a fundamental sense, buyer demand was impeccable for both feeders and calves this past week. Given the fact that the CME feeder cattle index continues to trade around $249-$250 shows just how aggressive buyers are. November feeders closed $2.22 lower at $245.42, January feeders closed $2.90 lower at $241.42 and March feeders closed $2.87 lower at $239.37. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary revealed that compared to recent weeks, feeder steers traded steady to $5 higher, except those weighing 600 to 700 pounds, which sold $8 lower. Steers calves sold unevenly steady. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $4 to $8 lower. Slaughter cows sold $1 to $3 higher, and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/7/2024: down $0.08, $249.86.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex endured some of the same technical pressure in its nearby contracts that the cattle complex saw, but thankfully, the market was still able to close higher in at least its deferred contracts. Wild price swings continue to be the norm of pork cutout values, as on Friday, the belly's $19.54 jump helped push the carcass price higher. December lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $80.42, February lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $84.82 and April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $89.25. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.36 with a weighted average price of $81.67 on 1,234 head. Pork cutouts totaled 282.28 loads with 241.33 loads of pork cuts and 40.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.42, $102.38. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 33,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 168,000 head. The CME lean hog index 11/6/2024: up $0.38, $90.61.

Friday's WASDE report was supportive for the hog and pork markets of 2024 and 2025. Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 90 million pounds, as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are both lighter than originally assumed. The trend continued into 2025 projections, as pork production for 2025 was decreased by 115 million pounds. Thankfully, the industry did see some support in terms of quarterly prices, as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $60 (up $5 from last month); hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $58 (up $3); hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $62 (up $1); and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 21 million pounds and pork exports for 2024 were increased by 1 million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 40 million pounds.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers weren't aggressive late this week in the cash market, which could pressure them to be slightly more aggressive early next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Technical Pressure Drives Cattle Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Friday's noon hour as some technical pressure is settling into the market. A few more cash cattle sales have been reported in Nebraska at $188, but otherwise the market is still quiet. December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 258.15 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading lower as the market endures some pressure as traders are likely reacting to the fact that some of the funds are moving their positions as the Goldman roll gets underway. Friday's lower break thankfully remains above the market's 100-day moving average, but all in all it isn't that surprising the market is trading lower given that cash prices are developing $2.00 to $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average and boxed beef prices are trending lower too." Nevertheless, the market will likely continue with this weaker trend through Friday's close. December live cattle are down $1.55 at $184.27, February live cattle are down $1.57 at $185.85, and April live cattle are down $1.42 at $186.82. Following Thursday's light cash cattle trade, there have been a few more deals starting to surface as the market nears Friday's noon hour. Some live sales have been reported this morning in Nebraska at $188, but most of the other bids have sat idle this morning as they're still several dollars below current asking prices. Southern feedlot managers are asking $190 to $192 and Northern feedlot managers are asking $296-plus. There were a few sales noted Thursday afternoon in eastern Nebraska where cattle sold for mostly $294, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Packer interest should improve this afternoon but given that they've been able to slowly add to their inventory over the last couple of weeks, prices are expected to be lower this week and the week's movement could be light.

Friday's WASDE report was very support to the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025. Beef production for 2024 was increased by 25 million pounds as dressed weights are significantly heavier than originally assumed and cow processing speeds aren't expected to decline through the year's end, which more than offsets the decrease in the fed cattle slaughter. Beef production for 2025 was also increased by 355 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase. Feedlot managers will be pleased to see quarterly steer prices were increased from last month's projection as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2.00 from last month); steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $188 (up $1.00); steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1.00); and steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $186 (up $1.00). Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 125 million pounds as packers need more processing type of cuts, but exports for 2024 also saw a slight increase of 5 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 90 million pounds, but 2025 exports were also increased by 100 million pounds.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.18 ($309.28) and select down $1.59 ($278.13) with a movement of 104 loads (67.66 loads of choice, 11.41 loads of select, 8.67 loads of trim and 16.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle complex trading lower, it comes as no surprise that the feeder cattle market is also trending lower. November feeders are down $2.07 at $245.57, January feeders are down $2.67 at $241.67, and March feeders are down $2.75 at $239.50. Friday's lower dive in the spot January contract does push the contract back below its 40-day and 100-day moving averages, which typically means the market is in a weaker trend.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the market is currently enduring some pressure on nearby contracts, but the deferred contracts are trading slightly higher. December lean hogs are down $0.72 at $80.47, February lean hogs are down $0.45 at $84.85, and April lean hogs are down $0.22 at $88.95. The swings in the carcass price have been extreme lately as the belly is up $33.51 Friday morning -- which has pushed the carcass price over $7.00 higher. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/7/2024 is down $0.18 at $90.43 and the actual index for 11/6/2024 is up $0.37 at $90.61. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.03 with a weighted average price of $82.23, ranging from $74.00 to $85.50 on 924 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.52. Pork cutouts total 195.33 loads with 170.20 loads of pork cuts and 25.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.13, $105.10.

Friday's WASDE report was supportive for the hog and pork markets of 2024 and 2025. Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 90 million pounds as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are both lighter than originally assumed, and the trend continued into 2025 projections as pork production for 2025 was decreased by 115 million pounds. Thankfully the industry did see some support in terms of quarterly prices as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $60.00 (up $5.00 from last month); hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $58.00 (up $3.00); hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $62.00 (up $1.00); and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 21 million pounds and pork exports for 2024 were increased by one million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 40 million pounds.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash Cattle Prices Expected

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders allowed futures to drift higher Thursday despite the low weekly export sales report. Beef sales were dismal at only 8,000 metric tons (mt), a marketing year low and down 43% from the previous week. Cash has not yet traded this week with a greater anticipation of lower prices. The packers had a fair amount of cattle purchased ahead and are not anxious to purchase aggressively this week due to lower boxed beef prices. Price took a huge hit Thursday with choice down $6.13 and select down $3.48. This may increase the resolve of packers to hold for lower cash. Feedlots will make the decision whether to hold cattle for another week and risk yet lower prices or move them this week. Cattle futures have lower cash already factored in, which may leave futures mixed even if cash trades lower.

The favorite activity of hog traders over the past few weeks has been spread trading. The December contract was under pressure Thursday as traders sold the December and purchased later contracts. The relieving of the overbought technical status of the market seems to be more calculated rather than heavy liquidation by the funds. Pork cutouts took a big hit Thursday with a decline of $4.19. This was offset by packers being more aggressive with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report up $2.31. It is unusual to see strong cash on Thursday, which may mean the packers will be less aggressive Friday. The estimate for Saturday slaughter was raised to 166,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures already have lower cash factored in and may see buying interest depending on where cash trading takes place.	1)	The large drop in boxed beef prices Thursday is reflecting reduced demand as consumers grapple with high food and other prices.
2)	Reduced domestic beef supplies will continue for a time and the potential for increased tariffs on imports may support prices in the longer term.	2)	Marketing year low beef export sales may indicate reduced international demand due to high beef prices. Prices may need to decline further to stimulate demand. .
3)	The hog numbers do not seem to be out there, which has been reflected in the cash price. The packers have had to be more aggressive with their purchases to procure the hogs they need.	3)	The large decline of pork cutouts Thursday may trigger selling in futures Friday.
4)	The packers continue to run strong slaughter paces as their margins are good and demand is good.	4)	The packers are not expected to be aggressive Friday as they likely have most of their business done for the week.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Boxed Beef Prices and Pork Cutout Values Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as although the futures contracts closed higher, the market saw some pressure from its fundamentals as both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices closed lower. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but prices are expected to be lower this week. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.59 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,00 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 43% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (2,100 mt), Japan (2,000 mt) and Canada (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 14,700 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,300 mt), South Korea (2,100 mt) and Panama (200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded higher throughout the majority of the day, seeming to still be encouraged by Wednesday's strong rally in the Dow Jones. December live cattle closed $0.42 higher at $185.82, February live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $187.42 and April live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $188.25. It's also likely that the cattle complex was pleased with the Fed's decision to decline interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as most producers are working with some type of lending situation. What was odd; however, about Thursday's trade was the sharp decline in boxed beef prices. Boxed beef prices have slowly been enduring some mixed pressure this week, but today's close was sharply lower in both the choice and select cuts. Bids of $186 live and $292 dressed were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no cattle traded. Asking prices remain firm at $190 to $192 in the South and are still unestablished in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head – 4,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $6.13 ($309.46) and select down $3.48 ($279.72) with a movement of 179 loads (104.41 loads of choice, 36.35 loads of select, 6.66 loads of trim and 31.67 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With today's sharp decline in boxed beef prices and packers having plenty of cattle around them through their recent purchases in the cash market over the last couple of weeks, cash prices will likely be lower this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex traded higher throughout the day as the market continues to be well supported by buyer demand in the countryside and was given enough technical support as the live cattle contracts traded higher. November feeders closed $0.05 lower at $247.65, January feeders closed $0.30 higher at $244.32 and March feeders closed $0.50 higher at $242.55. It was also positive to see that spot January contract again closed above its 100-day moving average, which signals better technical support. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers under 400 pounds sold sharply lower, but steers weighing over 400 pounds sold anywhere from $1.00 to $9.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 250 to 400 pounds sold $20.00 to $25.00 higher, but heifers weighing 400 to 600 pounds sold $1.00 to $4.00 lower. Heifers over 600 pounds sold $1.00 to $6.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 16%. The CME lean hog index 11/6/2024: down $0.08, $249.92.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the market was pressured earlier today by the note of weaker exports, by the day's close the market again found support and secured a higher end ahead of closing. December lean hogs closed $0.92 lower at $81.20, February lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $85.30 and April lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $89.17. Today's higher end throughout the futures complex wasn't because of continued consumer support as this afternoon's carcass price closed sharply lower thanks to the dramatic $17.05 decline in the belly and the $4.99 drop in the ham. More than anything today's higher end seems to be traders re-gathering themselves after enduring some nervousness around the election earlier this week. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.31 with a weighted average price of $85.03 on 1,575 head. Pork cutouts totaled 326.03 loads with 283.82 loads of pork cuts and 42.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.19, $97.96. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 5,000 head less than a year ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/5/2024: up $0.45, $90.24.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With the day's afternoon carcass price dropping dramatically, it's unlikely that packers will be apt to support the cash market on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Weak Exports Push the Hog Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour, but the lean hog complex is trading mixed as traders grumble about the morning's export sales report. There's currently a single bid being offered in the North at $186, but otherwise, the cash market is still silent. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.63 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,00 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 43% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (2,100 mt), Japan (2,000 mt) and Canada (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 14,700 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,300 mt), South Korea (2,100 mt) and Panama (200 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

This morning's export report wasn't anything for the live cattle complex to dote over as the report highlighted a marketing year low for beef exports, but thankfully the jump in the Dow Jones yesterday continues to push a strong underlying supportive nature throughout the live cattle market. December live cattle are up $0.32 at $185.72, February live cattle are up $0.30 at $187.02 and April live cattle are down $0.05 at $187.75. A single bid is currently being offered in Nebraska at $186, but no feedlot managers have jumped at the offer. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $190 to $192 but are still not established in the North. At this point without much packer interest having developed, it's likely that the week's trade could be delayed until Friday. It is supportive from a technical sense to see the spot December live cattle contract trading above the market's 40-day moving average as this possibly means that Tuesday's bottom will serve as a short-term support plane for the complex.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.89 ($312.70) and select down $0.26 ($282.94) with a movement of 75 loads (26.16 loads of choice, 16.27 loads of select, 4.02 loads of trim and 28.40 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Some of the nearby feeder cattle contracts are trading slightly lower, but overall, the market is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour. Between the support of the live cattle complex's higher trend and the continued support of strong buyer demand in the countryside, the market has all the support it needs to continue to press onward into the afternoon. November feeders are down $0.17 at $247.52, January feeders are up $0.02 at $244.05 and March feeders are up $0.02 at $241.75. It is worth noting that the spot January contract is continuing to hold its position above the market's 100-day moving average which is significant from a technical sense.

LEAN HOGS:

Given the morning's export sales report, which highlighted a marketing year low for the hog market, and the fact that morning carcass price is down over $1.00 -- it's surprising that the hog complex was trading higher this morning. As the noon hour approaches, the nearby contracts are trading slightly lower, but the deferred contracts are continuing to trade higher. The morning's carcass price was mainly pulled lower because of the $10.47 decline in the belly. December lean hogs are down $0.92 at $81.20, February lean hogs are down $0.05 at $85.10 and April lean hogs are down $0.05 at $88.67.

The projected lean hog index for 11/5/2024 is up $0.45 at $90.24, and the actual index for 11/4/2024 is up $0.41 at $89.79. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.96 with a weighted average price of $85.26, ranging from $79.50 to $87.00 on 860 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.23. Pork cutouts total 149.33 loads with 127.96 loads of pork cuts and 21.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.29, $100.86.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders To Focus on Market Fundamentals

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The focus of cattle traders Wednesday seemed to be the stock market strength. An increasing economy would be beneficial for consumers and possibly increase beef demand. There is much more involved in the workings of the market but this psychological aspect permeated the markets. The bottom line is cash cattle have not yet been traded, leaving traders cautious over continued strength. Boxed beef prices took a hit on Wednesday with choice down $1.62 and select down $2.04. Cash cattle trade should develop Thursday but the direction will be determined by whether feedlots need to move cattle more aggressively or are willing to hold another week.

Hog futures started lower but then turned higher as the day progressed. Traders looked at the benefits of a possible better economy and the current strong demand and reversed the initial losses. Cash did not fare well with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report down $0.65. The packers may hold back Thursday, hoping to procure more hogs at lower prices. If they are unable to purchase sufficient numbers, they may bid up on Friday. Pork cutouts did well with values of $0.72. Hog weights are beginning to trend lower, requiring more hogs to fill demand. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 162,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have corrected sufficiently to increase the buying interest of traders. Cattle supplies remain tight with limited rebuilding of the herd.	1)	The strength in cattle futures may have been due to the strong stock market, not its fundamentals. Cash cattle trade is expected to be lower.
2)	A better economy would increase disposable income and improve consumer buying power. Increased beef consumption could be one of the benefits.	2)	Boxed beef prices may continue to show weakness as demand has slowed.
3)	Hog futures continue to show resilience as demand is strong and packers continue to run higher slaughter speeds.	3)	Traders will need to see strong weekly export sales or futures could show weakness as there would be concern over international interest due to the strong U.S. dollar.
4)	Hog weights declined by 0.2 pound last week to an average of 285.8 pounds. This is 0.9 pound below a year and the first time weights have been lower in quite some time.	4)	Hog futures are overbought which may result in a further price correction as funds may take profits.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Support the Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a rallying day for the livestock complex as by Wednesday's end all three of the market closed higher thanks to the added support of the equity market's strength. No cash cattle sales have been noted yet, but packer demand should improve on Thursday. December corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1,508.05 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was hard not for the live cattle complex to rally throughout the day as the market saw big gains in the equity markets and consequently traded powerfully throughout all of Wednesday's trade. December live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $185.40, February live cattle closed $0.77 higher at $186.72 and April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $187.80. It will be interesting to see if today's higher mark serves as another short-term bottom for the markets or if traders will again resume the market's downward Thursday morning. At this point, no cash cattle sales have developed, but asking prices are noted in the South at $190 to $192 but are not yet established in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.62 ($315.59) and select down $2.04 ($283.20) with a movement of 131 loads (69.81 loads of choice, 24.91 loads of select, 9.75 loads of trim and 26.22 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers able to buy some cattle with the deferred delivery option last week, that likely means that this week's trade will be lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the corn complex closed $0.06 to $0.07 higher, the feeder cattle market powered through the day rallying substantially as the complex took the support from the live cattle market and charged onward. November feeders closed $1.55 higher at $247.70, January feeders closed $1.67 higher at $244.02 and March feeders closed $1.25 higher at $241.75. The spot January contract was able to close slightly above the market's 100-day moving average, which signals bullishness, but first thing Thursday morning traders are going to be pressured to either cave and fall back below that threshold or continue with the recent change in direction. At Philip Livestock Auction in Philip, South Dakota compared to last week feeder steers weighing 400 to 450 pounds sold steady to $3.00 higher, steers weighing 450 to 550 pounds sold steady, and steers weighing 500 to 700 pounds traded steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder heifers weighing 400 to 550 pounds sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher, heifers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $2.00 to $3.00 lower and heifers weighing 800 to 850 pounds sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 29%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/5/2024: down $0.01, $250.72.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex originally was trading lower at the day's start as the uptick in the US dollar concerned traders about the market's ability to export into countries like Mexico. But as the day traded on, the continued support from US consumers helped alleviate some of the other pressures and by the day's end, the market closed higher. December lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $82.12, February lean hogs closed $0.65 higher at $85.15 and April lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $88.72. Thursday's export report will again be a big-hitting line item for the market as demand remains its strongest driving force currently. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.65 with a weighted average price of $82.72 on 4,265 head. Pork cutouts total 266.66 loads with 234.71 loads of pork cuts and 31.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.72, $102.15. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/4/2024: up $0.41, $89.79.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers were aggressive in the cash market earlier this week it's likely that they show the complex less attention on Thursday and Friday as their needs are likely filled.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Support from the Equity Market Drives Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the complex is thriving thanks to the added support of the equity markets surge. No bids are currently on the table, but asking prices are noted in the South at $190 to $192. December corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1,353.24 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As the live cattle complex watches the equity market thrive and the Dow Jones trading consistently around 1,300 points higher this morning -- traders are back to mildly supporting the live cattle complex even though the market was pressured earlier this week. December live cattle are up $0.62 at $185.40, February live cattle are up $0.85 at $186.80 and April live cattle are up $0.65 at $187.65. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are now being noted in parts of Kansas at $190 to $192. It is expected that the cash cattle market will trade slightly lower this week as packers have been able to buy up inventory over the last couple of weeks, which lessens their need to be as aggressive in the cash sector this week.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.36 ($316.85) and select up $1.49 ($283.75) with a movement of 86 loads (42.83 loads of choice, 14.77 loads of select, 4.89 loads of trim and 23.43 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Earlier today the feeder cattle market was trading sharply higher when corn prices were trading lower, but now that the nearby corn contracts are trading $0.05 to $0.06 higher the market is trading in a moderately higher manner. November feeders are up $1.37 at $247.52, January feeders are up $1.35 at $243.70 and March feeders are up $0.77 at $241.27. But with the live cattle market's higher trend, the feeder cattle market should be able to maintain these higher levels through the day's end as technical support is ample.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mixed into Wednesday's noon hour as the market tries to grasp what is next to come with another Trump Presidency. Earlier today the market seemed anxious as the U.S. dollar showed some strength which could affect export opportunities later down the road. And with Mexico being one of the largest buyers of U.S. pork, keeping that relationship open and workable for sales remains important for the hog sector. But thankfully the market has again turned higher as it's hard for the market not to thrive when the equity sector is rallying as aggressively as it is. December lean hogs are up $0.40 at $81.52, February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $85.07 and April lean hogs are up $0.25 at $88.35.

The projected lean hog index for 11/5/2024 is up $0.45 at $90.24, and the actual index for 11/4/2024 is up $0.41 at $89.79. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.91 with a weighted average price of $84.30, ranging from $78.00 to $87.00 on 2,004 head and a five-day rolling average of $82.82. Pork cutouts total 146.96 loads with 129.63 loads of pork cuts and 17.33 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.75, $103.18.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures May See Further Liquidation

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures moved within a narrow range, managing to close mixed Tuesday as uncertainty shrouded the market as to who would win the presidential election and what cash would do this week. The market now knows who is the next president but will remain uncertain over cash this week. It will be a few months before the impact of the election will be felt as the change does not take place until January, but that will not minimize the volatility that may take place due to the results. Boxed beef prices were mixed Tuesday with choice up $0.30 and select down $1.92. Feeder cattle closed mixed waiting for direction from live cattle.

Hog futures took a beating in nearby contracts Tuesday as traders decided to unwind the bull spreads even though the cash market jumped. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $5.87. The morning cash report showed packers were more aggressive, but traders were unsure of the extent of the interest. Pork cutouts did not fare as well with a decline of $2.58. The packers may remain aggressive Wednesday as they need more hogs to fulfill the strong slaughter pace and satisfy increased demand.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	December live cattle futures have lower cash already factored in. The stability of the cash cattle trade could generate more aggressive buying interest.	1)	Boxed beef shows little sign of solid support and may continue to struggle as the rest of the year unfolds.
2)	Traders may react favorably to the presidential election results and what it may mean for consumers over time. A better economy, if realized, may mean increased demand.	2)	Cash cattle are not expected to trade higher. The question is whether feedlots need to move cattle even at lower prices.
3)	The pressure on hog futures may have been some trade positioning in the market and may be short-lived. The February contract closed the chart gap with December nearly accomplishing the task.	3)	December hogs may see further weakness and finish closing the chart gap, completing what it did not accomplish Tuesday.
4)	The packers were very aggressive in the cash market and are expected to remain aggressive Wednesday.	4)	Further liquidation may take place as futures may correct from their overbought technical position.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Mostly Higher While Hogs Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

As the entire U.S., and arguably the rest of the world, wait for the U.S. presidential election results to come in, the livestock complex traded mixed throughout most of Tuesday's trade as all eyes are fixated on seeing who will become the 47th President of the United States. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 351.09 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded back and forth throughout the day but felt most comfortable keeping the December contract trending slightly lower but thankfully allowed the market's deferred contracts to trade higher. More than anything, today's slight uptick in price seems to be somewhat of a mild rebound following Monday's lower end. But even so, traders elected to keep the December contract trading lower as nervousness and some level of uncertainty linger throughout the marketplace with election results not yet posted. December live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $184.77, February live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $185.95 and April live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $187.00. No business developed in the cash cattle market and bids and asking prices have not yet been posted either. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.30 ($317.21) and select down $1.92 ($285.24) with a movement of 142 loads (86.79 loads of choice, 38.37 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 16.43 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been able to build up supply around them in the last couple of weeks, it's likely that this week's trade will be lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex closed mostly higher although the spot and nearby contracts remained lower through the day's end. More than anything, it seemed as though today's pressure in the nearby contracts was solely because of election market jitters as demand in the countryside remains incredible and the live cattle complex even closed mostly higher which lent some technical support as well. November feeders closed $0.20 lower at $246.15, January feeders closed $0.07 lower at $242.35 and March feeders closed $0.25 higher at $240.50. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week feeder steers traded mostly $2.00 to $8.00 higher with instances of even sharp prices across all weight classes. Feeder heifers between 250 to 450 pounds sold mostly $8.00 to $13.00 higher. Feeder heifers over 450 pounds sold steady to $2.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 28%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/4/2024: down $0.27, $250.73.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex felt pressured throughout Tuesday's trade as not only were traders somewhat distant from the market because of typical election market jitters, but also as traders watched the Mexican peso trade, as pork sales to Mexico are vital to the market's well-being as they're currently one of the biggest export outlets for U.S. pork. It was somewhat disappointing to see the carcass price close lower but with a $6.28 drop in the belly and a $3.79 decline in the loin -- a lower ending carcass price was inevitable. December lean hogs closed $2.10 lower at $81.12, February lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $84.50 and April lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $88.10. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $5.87 with a weighted average price of $83.37 on 4,810 head. Pork cutouts totaled 317.51 loads with 263.55 loads of pork cuts and 53.96 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.58, $101.43. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/1/2024: up $0.82, $89.38.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Cash prices were up substantially throughout Tuesday's trade which could indicate that packers are short bought, but with today's lower ending carcass prices, they may not be as active in Wednesday's cash market.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Summarize the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Heading into Tuesday's noon hour the livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle complex is back to trading slightly higher, but the hog contracts are continuing to drift lower. More than anything the market seems on edge as the country waits to see how today's U.S. presidential election pans out. December corn is up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 381.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is back to trading modestly higher as the market has noted the stronger position of the equity market and is seeming slightly less overwhelmed than it did on Monday. However, even though the complex is trading mildly higher, it's likely that the majority of this week's trade will be back and forth regardless of who wins the election. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and it's likely that we won't see much trade develop until Wednesday or Thursday. December live cattle are up $0.27 at $185.35, February live cattle are up $0.40 at $186.32 and April live cattle are up $0.35 at $187.22.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.77 ($318.68) and select down $0.44 ($286.72) with a movement of 70 loads (36.56 loads of choice, 20.88 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12.88 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle complex trading higher, it was an easy decision for traders to allow the feeder cattle market to follow suit. November feeders are up $0.65 at $247.00, January feeders are up $0.82 at $243.27 and March feeders are up $0.65 at $240.90. Thankfully today's slight recover following Monday's lower descend has allowed the spot January contract to move further away from the market's 40-day moving average, but the market still doesn't possess enough support to break above the 100-day moving average at this point.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to trade lower into Tuesday's noon hour as the market braces for whatever may come of this election. Aside from waiting anxiously to see who the next U.S. president will be, the hog complex is also having to monitor the Mexican peso as they're one of the top buyers of U.S. pork. Thankfully, midday pork cutout values are higher which is always a positive fundamental sign, but at this point traders are opting to keep an arms distance from the hog complex. December lean hogs are down $1.62 at $81.60, February lean hogs are down $0.82 at $84.50 and April lean hogs are down $0.57 at $88.02.

The projected lean hog index for 11/4/2024 is up $0.41 at $89.79, and the actual index for 11/1/2024 is up $0.82 at $89.38. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $82.39, ranging from $77.75 to 85.00 on 1,630 head and a five-day rolling average of $84.51. Pork cutouts total 156.61 loads with 114.64 loads of pork cuts and 41.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.81, $104.78.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Livestock Futures May Find Little Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures drifted lower through the day as traders did not have much fundamental news to provide direction. It may be difficult for cattle futures to regain the losses of the past two weeks. Traders may be looking over their shoulders at what took place a year ago when futures fell substantially during November and will remain cautious. There will be no cash cattle trade Tuesday as packers and feedlots have little reason to do business this early in the week. There is concern the cash prices will not perform much better than last week. The packers continue to hold the line on slaughter, attempting to improve margins. Boxed beef prices showed some strength Monday with choice up $0.57 and select up $2.13. Feeder cattle are attempting to build support. Prices at auctions are variable and may remain that way through the end of the year.

Hog futures closed mixed with December through July contracts lower and later contracts higher. Traders anticipated cash might be weaker to begin the week. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.56. The packers are expected to resume their aggressiveness this week but need evidence of continued strong demand. Pork cutout values were able to carve out a minor gain of $0.04. There is growing concern the hogs are not out there that were anticipated a few months ago. That may continue to support the market even though futures are overbought.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	There is a strong demand for feeder cattle at auctions as the supplies remain tight. The cattle herd is showing little signs of rebuilding.	1)	Cattle futures are having a difficult time finding solid support. Boxed beef has been less than stellar and the strength of cash prices may have run its course.
2)	Lower cattle futures may bring traders back into the market more aggressively as futures have corrected from their overbought position.	2)	Traders are cautious as they look at the weakness that took place in November 2023. There is concern a similar pattern may develop.
3)	The supply of hogs may be less than anticipated a few months ago. This may keep the packers aggressive and cash prices higher as the slaughter pace remains strong.	3)	December and February hog futures have a chart gap that may be filled before the market can resume the uptrend and reach new highs.
4)	The trend is up and traders continue to support the market. Futures weakness has been short-lived as it is viewed as a buying opportunity.	4)	The supply of hogs may be less than anticipated but packers still have sufficient supplies available to maintain a strong slaughter pace.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Let Contracts Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Overall, the livestock complex closed moderately lower as traders let the contracts drift lower while they closely watched the equity markets trade lower and are likely taking a cautious position ahead of Tuesday's Presidential election. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 257.59 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another downward spiraling day for the live cattle complex as the market continues to correct technically. With open interest at its highest point since 2019, and money managed funds at their highest point in over a year, the futures complex sits with plenty of downside potential ahead of it as traders try to manage the technical risk side of the market along with keep in perspective how strong the market's fundamentals remain. At this point, time will only be able to give the answers we long for such as: how much more of a correction will traders deem necessary. December live cattle closed $0.85 lower at $185.07, February live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $185.92 and April live cattle closed $0.82 lower at $186.87. New showlists appear to be mixed, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, higher in Kansas, but somewhat lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $190 which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $296 which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 87,606 head. Of that 80% (70,121 head) were purchased for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 20% (17,485 head) were purchased for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.57 ($316.91) and select up $2.13 ($287.16) with a movement of 103 loads (62.68 loads of choice, 20.70 loads of select, 7.33 loads of trim and 12.66 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With packers able to buy plenty of cattle last week, it's likely that the cash market will trade lower this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though Friday's market allowed the feeder cattle complex to end the week on a stronger note, seeing the live cattle complex trade lower yet again on Monday pressured feeders into a lower trend as well. November feeders closed $0.52 lower at $246.35, January feeders closed $0.77 lower at $242.42 and March feeders closed $0.90 lower at $240.25. The January contract continues to chop sideways in between the market's 100-day and 40-day moving averages and will likely remain with that trend given that it's the Presidential election week. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week steers under 625 pounds sold $10.00 lower to $2.00 higher. Heavier weighted steers sold $3.00 lower to $6.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/1/2024: up $0.02, $251.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex wasn't able to sneak through Monday's trade without enduring some of the same pressure which the equity markets and cattle contracts endured. Most of the market's nearby contracts closed slightly lower while the deferred months were able to maintain their higher position. Thankfully the afternoon's carcass price was able to close higher yet again -- showing continued consumer support -- but that was mostly contributed to the loin's $4.33 gain. December lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $83.22, February lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $85.32 and April lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $88.60. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.56 with a weighted average price of $77.50 on 2,159 head. Pork cutouts total 272.80 loads with 214.25 loads of pork cuts and 58.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.04, $104.01. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/31/2024: up $0.63, $88.56.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Packers aren't normally aggressive in the cash market on Mondays which likely means that they're somewhat short bought and could likely be aggressive again on Tuesday as they secure more inventory.