GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour, but the lean hog complex is trading mixed as traders grumble about the morning's export sales report. There's currently a single bid being offered in the North at $186, but otherwise, the cash market is still silent. December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 38.63 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,00 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 43% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (2,100 mt), Japan (2,000 mt) and Canada (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 14,700 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,300 mt), South Korea (2,100 mt) and Panama (200 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
This morning's export report wasn't anything for the live cattle complex to dote over as the report highlighted a marketing year low for beef exports, but thankfully the jump in the Dow Jones yesterday continues to push a strong underlying supportive nature throughout the live cattle market. December live cattle are up $0.32 at $185.72, February live cattle are up $0.30 at $187.02 and April live cattle are down $0.05 at $187.75. A single bid is currently being offered in Nebraska at $186, but no feedlot managers have jumped at the offer. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $190 to $192 but are still not established in the North. At this point without much packer interest having developed, it's likely that the week's trade could be delayed until Friday. It is supportive from a technical sense to see the spot December live cattle contract trading above the market's 40-day moving average as this possibly means that Tuesday's bottom will serve as a short-term support plane for the complex.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.89 ($312.70) and select down $0.26 ($282.94) with a movement of 75 loads (26.16 loads of choice, 16.27 loads of select, 4.02 loads of trim and 28.40 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Some of the nearby feeder cattle contracts are trading slightly lower, but overall, the market is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour. Between the support of the live cattle complex's higher trend and the continued support of strong buyer demand in the countryside, the market has all the support it needs to continue to press onward into the afternoon. November feeders are down $0.17 at $247.52, January feeders are up $0.02 at $244.05 and March feeders are up $0.02 at $241.75. It is worth noting that the spot January contract is continuing to hold its position above the market's 100-day moving average which is significant from a technical sense.
LEAN HOGS:
Given the morning's export sales report, which highlighted a marketing year low for the hog market, and the fact that morning carcass price is down over $1.00 -- it's surprising that the hog complex was trading higher this morning. As the noon hour approaches, the nearby contracts are trading slightly lower, but the deferred contracts are continuing to trade higher. The morning's carcass price was mainly pulled lower because of the $10.47 decline in the belly. December lean hogs are down $0.92 at $81.20, February lean hogs are down $0.05 at $85.10 and April lean hogs are down $0.05 at $88.67.
The projected lean hog index for 11/5/2024 is up $0.45 at $90.24, and the actual index for 11/4/2024 is up $0.41 at $89.79. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.96 with a weighted average price of $85.26, ranging from $79.50 to $87.00 on 860 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.23. Pork cutouts total 149.33 loads with 127.96 loads of pork cuts and 21.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.29, $100.86.
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