GENERAL COMMENTS:
Friday ended up being a mixed day for the livestock complex, as although the deferred lean hog contracts closed higher, most of the livestock complex closed slightly lower. Throughout the day, some more cash cattle trade was reported, and Southern live cattle were marked at $187 and Northern dressed cattle at $294 -- both of which are $3 lower than last week's weighted average. December corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 259.65 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $2.22, February live cattle down $1.60; November feeder cattle down $1.45, January feeder cattle down $1.77; December lean hogs down $3.65, February lean hogs down $1.20; December corn up $0.17, March corn up $0.15.
LIVE CATTLE:
As the funds begin to roll their positions to deferred months, the live cattle complex came under some pressure, as it not only battled some technical pressure from the start of the Goldman roll, but traders were left unsupported by the market's fundamentals, as not only did boxed beef prices drift lower through the week's end, but cash prices traded lower too. Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $187 this week, and Northern dressed sales were marked at $294, both of which are $3 lower than last week's weighted average. It was disappointing, however, to see the spark fizzle out in the spot December contract, as its close was below the market's 40-day moving average. December live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $183.70, February live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $185.30, and April live cattle closed $1.72 lower at $186.52. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 619,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.
Friday's WASDE report was very supportive to the cattle and beef markets of 2024 and 2025. Beef production for 2024 was increased by 25 million pounds, as dressed weights are significantly heavier than originally assumed, and cow processing speeds aren't expected to decline through the year's end, which more than offsets the decrease in the fed cattle slaughter. Beef production for 2025 was also increased by 355 million pounds, as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase. Feedlot managers will be pleased to see quarterly steer prices were increased from last month's projection, as steer prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $188 (up $2 from last month); steer prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $188 (up $1); steer prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $187 (up $1); and steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $186 (up $1). Beef imports for 2024 were increased by 125 million pounds, as packers need more processing type of cuts, but exports for 2024 also saw a slight increase of 5 million pounds. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 90 million pounds, but 2025 exports were also increased by 100 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($307.93) and select down $0.53 ($279.19) with a movement of 151 loads (93.84 loads of choice, 17.23 loads of select, 10.19 loads of trim and 29.98 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With boxed beef prices trading lower and packers sitting on plenty of inventory, it's unlikely that they'll have to be aggressive enough in the cash market to where prices trade higher.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex traded right in line with what the live cattle market did this week, and Friday's trade was no different. The only thing that really separated the live cattle market's outlook compared to that of the feeder cattle market's is that from a fundamental sense, buyer demand was impeccable for both feeders and calves this past week. Given the fact that the CME feeder cattle index continues to trade around $249-$250 shows just how aggressive buyers are. November feeders closed $2.22 lower at $245.42, January feeders closed $2.90 lower at $241.42 and March feeders closed $2.87 lower at $239.37. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary revealed that compared to recent weeks, feeder steers traded steady to $5 higher, except those weighing 600 to 700 pounds, which sold $8 lower. Steers calves sold unevenly steady. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $4 to $8 lower. Slaughter cows sold $1 to $3 higher, and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/7/2024: down $0.08, $249.86.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex endured some of the same technical pressure in its nearby contracts that the cattle complex saw, but thankfully, the market was still able to close higher in at least its deferred contracts. Wild price swings continue to be the norm of pork cutout values, as on Friday, the belly's $19.54 jump helped push the carcass price higher. December lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $80.42, February lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $84.82 and April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $89.25. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.36 with a weighted average price of $81.67 on 1,234 head. Pork cutouts totaled 282.28 loads with 241.33 loads of pork cuts and 40.95 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.42, $102.38. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 33,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 168,000 head. The CME lean hog index 11/6/2024: up $0.38, $90.61.
Friday's WASDE report was supportive for the hog and pork markets of 2024 and 2025. Pork production for 2024 was decreased by 90 million pounds, as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are both lighter than originally assumed. The trend continued into 2025 projections, as pork production for 2025 was decreased by 115 million pounds. Thankfully, the industry did see some support in terms of quarterly prices, as hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 are expected to average $60 (up $5 from last month); hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $58 (up $3); hog prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $62 (up $1); and hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $63 (which is unchanged from a month ago). Pork imports for 2024 were decreased by 21 million pounds and pork exports for 2024 were increased by 1 million pounds. Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 15 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were decreased by 40 million pounds.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers weren't aggressive late this week in the cash market, which could pressure them to be slightly more aggressive early next week.
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