Monday, November 11, 2024

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Dominate Complex Early in Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is off to a mixed start this week as traders continue to support the lean hog contracts but aren't as confident in supporting the cattle contracts. It is positive, however, that midday boxed beef prices are higher, which could help traders feel more confident about supporting the live cattle complex at least. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 355.25 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts have been in a bit of a slump thus far through Monday's trade, but with boxed beef prices higher at midday, there's a chance if the market's fundamentals prevail traders could turn the futures direction around to higher prices later this week. December live cattle are down $0.10 at $183.57, February live cattle are down $0.10 at $185.20, and April live cattle are down $0.07 at $186.47. The market is still maintaining its position above the 100-day moving average, but unless traders find some technical footing, that average could be tested. It is worth noting that last week's cash cattle trade only totaled 50,010 head, which means this week's market could see better packer demand. New showlists appear to be mixed -- higher in Texas, but lower in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $187 which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $294 which is also $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 50,010 head. Of that 83% (41,519 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (8,391 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.23 ($308.16) and select up $0.55 ($279.74) with a movement of 80 loads (58.31 loads of choice, 10.88 loads of select, 3.60 loads of trim and 6.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Without the live cattle market's support, the feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as the market needs to see better technical interest before it will confidently move higher. Monday's lower break does push the spot January contract below both its 100-day and 40-day moving averages, which never is a thriving technical sign. November feeders are up $0.27 at $245.70, January feeders are down $0.25 at $241.17, and March feeders are down $0.37 at $239.00. Thankfully, again last week we saw tremendous buyer demand in the countryside for both feeders and calves; as long as that buyer interest remains prevalent throughout the market, at least traders can note the continued support from the market's fundamentals.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though morning pork cutout values are slightly lower, the lean hog complex is still trading somewhat higher as traders continue to support the market faithfully. Last week we saw wild swings in the belly which affected the carcass price, and again this week it would appear as though that's going to be the trend as this morning the belly is down $13.73. December lean hogs are up $1.07 at $81.50, February lean hogs are up $0.90 at $85.72, and April lean hogs are up $0.47 at $89.72.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 11/8/2024 is down $0.41 at $90.02, and the actual index for 11/7/2024 is down $0.18 at $90.43. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 978 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.52. Pork cutouts total 167.41 loads with 145.22 loads of pork cuts and 22.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.11, $102.27.



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