Friday, December 28, 2018

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Anticipating Late-Week Cash Strength, December Live Futures Close Sharply Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS: Northern cattle buying interest was light to moderate Friday afternoon, with some bids hiked as much as $192-$195, but still generally below asking prices of $195 plus. The spread between bids and asking prices remains even wider in the South (i.e., $122 bid versus $123-$125 asked). In short, we're still waiting for even minimal trade volume to develop. Such a vigil could take us into late afternoon or early evening. The national hog carcass base closed $0.26 higher ($41-$45.50, weighted average, $45.17). March corn closed up a penny, narrowing this week's loss to 3 cents through the holiday period of lackluster trading. The stock market closed mixed with the Dow off 76 points and the Nasdaq up 5.

LIVE CATTLE: Expiring spot December live closed sharply higher (up $1.15) while the rest of the complex advanced more moderately (up 12 to 40 cents). Helping both December and February push and hold over $124 were fears that a long stretch of adverse winter weather could significant curtail first-quarter beef production. Beef cut-outs closed mixed with the choice box off $0.89 ($214.41) and its select counterpart up by $0.30 ($207.52). Wholesale demand offerings were called "light to moderate."

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 higher. Activity on Monday will be limited to fed supply assessment as packers gather new showlists across the feeding area.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder issues closed the week on a mixed basis, up 22 cents to off 10 cents. Not many trading features to identify here. Volume was very thin with neither side eager to make their case. CME cash feeder Index for 12/27: $147.26, up $0.06.

LEAN HOGS. With the exception of a modest advance in spot February (up 17 cents), lean hog futures settled moderately lower with prices ranging from 7 to 25 cents lower. Chain speed (467,000) recovered from weather problems seen on Thursday, but still lagged behind last week. Carcass value held generally steady Friday with higher loins and hams offsetting lower bellies and picnics. The pork cut-out for 12/28 totaled $70.46, up $0.02. (DTN Projected lean index for CME cash lean index for 12/27: $53.11, down $0.01) CME cash lean index for 12/26: $53.12, off $0.20.


MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. The early week cash hog market is expected to open with bids steady to $1 lower. We'll probably see another large Saturday kill following New Year's as well-margined processors find time to swing carcasses whenever they can.

#chh

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