Monday, December 31, 2018

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - New Year's Eve Trade Remains Sluggish

General Comments
Front month live cattle and lean hog futures are holding firm market support due to limited activity. The rest of the complex remains stuck within a very narrowly mixed trading range as most contract months are holding single-digit market shifts. The limited interest is allowing markets to stabilize through the end of the year with increased volume and activity likely the first few trading sessions of January. Corn markets are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 2 1/4 cent lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 129 points higher with Nasdaq up 20 points.

LIVE CATTLE:
Lightly traded December contracts, which has limited interest due to expiration of contracts is leading market prices higher with an 80-cent gain at midday. The rest of the complex is contained to a narrowly mixed trading range with prices showing absolutely no sign of market direction Monday. Markets will remain closed Tuesday for the holiday, with normal trading schedules starting Monday. Activity through the last half of the week should become livelier, although little directional change is expected over the next few trading sessions. Cash cattle activity remains undeveloped Monday with limited interest seen before the holiday break. Most activity will develop Wednesday through Friday as traders return from the New Years holiday. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $3.45 higher (select) and up $0.14 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 49 total loads reported (31 loads of choice cuts, 9 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 9 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures remain sluggish with prices hovering in a mixed trading range as prices are contained to single digit moves. The inability to bring any significant direction to the market has more to do with markets closed Tuesday for New Year's Day, and traders willing to wait until later in the week before stepping into the complex. The way the holiday's fall this year, it has allowed for sluggish market activity to be seen on Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve due to limited market participation.

LEAN HOGS:
Limited market activity has entered the market Monday morning due to limited volume as many traders are content with current positions and willing to wait until early 2019 before stepping back into the market. With markets closed Tuesday for New Year's Day, prices are hovering in a narrowly mixed trading range with no real sense of urgency or direction seen through the complex. Front month February futures are leading the complex higher with a 47-cent gain at midday, although the lack of expected market moves through the end of the session will likely allow markets to hold current patterns over the next couple hours. Cash prices are unavailable at this time. Pork carcass values are higher on the morning report with prices gaining $0.47 per cwt at $70.93 per cwt with 202 loads traded. Lean hog index for 12/26 is $53.12, down 0.20, with a projected two-day index is $53.11, down 0.01.

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