Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Cling to Thursday's Support While Cattle Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as cattle rounded out the week on a slightly lower note, but the lean hog complex closed higher as Thursday's support carried the market through Friday's end. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.27 with a weighted average of $85.08 on 3,016 head. December corn is up 8 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 500.10 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle down $0.97, December live cattle closed $1.50; October feeder cattle down $4.17, November feeder cattle down $3.63; October lean hogs down $3.40, December lean hogs down $6.57; December corn up $0.01, March corn up $0.02.

LIVE CATTLE:

After closing higher Thursday afternoon, the live cattle complex was pressured to make a decision come Friday: keep with the slightly higher tone, panic and crash lower, or retrack slightly and wait until next week to make a decision. Upon seeing that the Quarterly Stocks report shared bullish news to the corn market, traders opted to let the live cattle complex drift modestly lower throughout the day. The move didn't pressure the recently developed support plane, which could signal that a new bottom has indeed been established. October live cattle closed $0.85 lower at $143.27, December live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $147.05 and February live cattle closed $0.70 lower at $150.65. The market faced obvious technical pressure from the economy's weakened state, but the market's fundamental side held its own throughout the week with cash cattle trading steady to $1.00 lower. Boxed beef prices continued to be pressured throughout the week, which expected to come at the cost of production as packers look to secure their margin, but Friday's estimated weekly slaughter reported production at 664,000 head, which is only 3,000 head less than a week ago and is 24,000 head more than a year ago. Throughout the week, Northern dressed sales have had a range of $225.60 to $233, mostly $228, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle have been marked at $143, which is fully steady with last week's weighted averages. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head, 10,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 42,000 head.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.33 ($243.75) and select up $0.35 ($220.13) with a total movement of 74 loads (44.95 loads of choice, 15.05 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim, and 10.97 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $23.61.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers were aggressive in last week's market and again in buying this week, it's likely because they're fully aware that fed cattle supplies are going to become incredibly thin in the weeks/months ahead. Packers will likely continue to buy week in and week out to pad their deferred delivery commitments.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Just when the feeder cattle market seemed to be gaining some support, Friday's USDA Quarterly Stocks report sent the market crashing lower yet again. The report drove feeder cattle lower when USDA said that corn stocks totaled 1.377 billion bushels (bb) on Sept. 1, which is 148 million bushels (mb) less than expected last month and the second lowest total in eight years. The news was enough to send the contracts back down to the market's newly found support plane, which next week's market is going to be pressured to either uphold or submit to. October feeders closed $3.15 lower at $174.17, November feeders closed $3.20 lower at $174.62 and January feeders closed $2.75 lower at $175.67. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 lower and feeder heifers traded $6.00 to $12.00 back. Steer calves sold $5.00 to $10.00 lower and heifer calves traded $4.00 to $9.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $7.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded steady to $3.00 cheaper. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 42%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 29: down $0.48, $175.46.

LEAN HOGS:

The cattle contracts closed lower Friday afternoon but that didn't put a damper on the lean hog market's momentum. December lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $76.22, February lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $79.42 and April lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $85.30. From the added support that trickled into the market throughout Thursday's trade (strong export report and bullish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report), the market could have potentially established a bottom after this week's gut-turning, descend. Packers have seemed to pull back production in the face of pressured pork cutout values, and mixed feelings about consumer demand in the months ahead. Pork cutouts total 285.60 loads with 248.98 loads of pork cuts and 36.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.21, $97.59. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 467,000 head, 8,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 132,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 28: down $0.46, $95.14.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Packers showed considerable interest in this week's market and even bought hogs on Monday, which rarely happens! It's a mixed bag of what next week's market could bring as packers could be looking to fill their books for upcoming kills, but then again, with this week's aggressive buying, they could opt to be more passive.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Trend Higher After Absorbing Quarterly Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a mixed Friday for the market as both live and feeder cattle contracts are trending lower after closing higher Thursday. But the lean hog complex is doing the exact opposite as it found enough support in Thursday's market to keep morale elevated through Friday. Not helping matters in terms of the cattle market's weakness Friday is the sheer fact that corn is trading 11 to 13 cents higher, which is a sizeable jump for the day. December corn is up 11 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 162.71 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading modestly lower into Friday afternoon as the market looks for support after pushing higher through Thursday's close. October live cattle are down $0.45 at $143.67, December live cattle are down $0.87 at $146.90, and February live cattle are down $0.72 at $150.62. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more interest develop and it's likely the week's trade is all but done with. Throughout the week, Northern dressed sales have had a range of $225.60 to $233, mostly $228, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle have been marked at $143, which is fully steady with last week's weighted averages. As mentioned earlier this week, monitoring not only boxed beef prices is critical in this time but also the sheer volume of sales as packers can balance lower prices with larger sales so long as the opportunity lasts. However, if demand wanes and both prices and sale volumes crater, packers could look to rein back production.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.26 ($244.82) and select up $0.86 ($220.64) with a movement of 47 loads (30.63 loads of choice, 10.13 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.39 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the corn complex gaining more and more steam as the day plays on, the feeder cattle market is taking a step back as nearby corn contracts trade 11 to 13 cents higher. Thankfully, at this point the market has support at the plane established earlier this week, which will be critical for the market to maintain if higher prices are to be in the feeder cattle markets in the near future. October feeder cattle are down $1.87 at $175.45, November feeders are down $2.40 at $175.42 and January feeders are down $1.95 at $176.47.

LEAN HOGS:

As the lean hog complex now has had time to thoroughly examine the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, which was released Thursday afternoon, the market has traded higher all Friday. October lean hogs are up $0.22 at $89.67, December lean hogs are up $0.50 at $76.25, and February lean hogs are up $0.15 at $79.20. Pork cutout values closed lower Thursday afternoon, which largely stemmed from the regression in belly prices. Monitoring pork cutout values and demand Friday afternoon will be important for the market as packers could opt to scale back production if demand isn't as lively as they'd like.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/29/2022 is down $0.23 at $94.91, and the actual index for 9/28/2022 is down $0.46 at $95.14. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.36 with a weighted average of $85.08, ranging from $82.00 to $95.50 on 2,966 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.29. Pork cutouts total 158.43 loads with 134.97 loads of pork cuts and 23.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.31, $97.49.

Beef Campaign Takes Fine Dining to New Places

Colorado Angus rancher Ty Walter recently rock climbed a 100-foot high ledge to enjoy fine dining with a celebrity. In a cliff-side setting, Walter joined actor, comedian, and host Joel McHale to talk about cattle production and what makes Certified Angus Beef® brand products consistently superior, all while enjoying a four-course meal at an elevation of 8,500 feet. After a two-mile hike, the pair rock climbed up the ledge to help promote the Certified Angus Beef brand. There, Walter and McHale enjoyed the four-course meal prepared by CAB Executive Chef Ashley Brennemen. “Every meal doesn’t have to be this extreme, but we wanted to showcase Certified Angus Beef products in a way that would inspire people to create their own flavor adventure,” Brenneman says. Walter adds that, “The thing I was most nervous about was dropping my fork.” The adventure is available on the Certified Angus Beef Brand Test Kitchen YouTube Channel.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Should Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex finally showed a positive day, but not until after futures made a lower low than Wednesday. Strong weekly export sales were responsible for the higher opening, but contracts then made a lower low before triggering some short-covering as traders stepped into the market. Weekly exports sales totaled 21,500 metric tons (mt) with China the second largest buyer. Some cash cattle traded Thursday with prices in line with the week. Southern cattle traded steady with Northern dressed cattle $1.00 lower. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down $1.47 and select up $0.57. October feeder cattle are now the front-month contract. Futures bounced nicely after technical traders bought the market. Feeder cattle auctions are not seeing higher prices this week as more animals have become available.

Hog futures tried valiantly to maintain gains after a gap higher opening. However, prices fell back into the close, eliminating the gap and posting slightly lower prices. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $4.93 with cutouts down $1.97, keeping some pressure on futures. The looming Hogs & Pigs report had traders more intent on limiting risk than market direction. The report was neutral to friendly to the market. All hogs and pigs were down 1% and just slightly below the trade estimate. Hogs kept for marketing were down 1% from a year ago and close in line with last year. Hogs kept for breeding was the friendliest with a decline of 1% compared to the traded estimate of 99.6%. Export sales were strong at 34,330 mt with China being the number three buyer. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 130,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The gains in cattle futures Thursday might indicate a bottom may have been established for the near term.	1)	Cattle rebounded Thursday after first making lower lows. This does not indicate a change in trend but maybe just a technical bounce.
2)	Good export sales may keep beef from backing up in the market with China continuing to be a buyer.	2)	The impact of higher food prices on beef demand remains a concern with more interest rate increases to come.
3)	The Hog & Pigs report was neutral to friendly to the market as all categories showed lower actuals than the estimates.	3)	Hog futures could not hold the short-covering gains Thursday despite the upcoming Hogs & Pigs report. Traders were comfortable with their positions.
4)	Hog futures are oversold and may find short-covering into the weekend.	4)	Continued weakness of cash and cutouts is an anchor on the market.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Technical Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the lean hog contracts drew back ahead of the day's end, the livestock complex successfully walked away with some wins from Thursday's market. First, both the beef and pork markets were pleased with the day's export report. Second, the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts found technical support. Lastly, the day's Hogs and Pigs report came in supportive. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $4.93 with a weighted average of $88.35 on 5,889 head. December corn is down 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 458.13 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an excellent day for the live cattle complex as the day not only celebrated a strong export report, but some more cash cattle traded as well. Once the market saw the strong interest in beef from the export data, the contracts traded mostly higher from the day's get-go and closed in the same confident manner. The big question moving forward for the live cattle complex will be: Has a new bottom been established? October live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $144.12, December live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $147.77, and February live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $151.35. Throughout the week, Northern dressed sales have had a range of $225.60 to $233, mostly $228, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle have been marked at $143, which is fully steady with last week's weighted averages.

Beef net sales of 21,500 mt for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (7,300 mt), China (6,000 mt) and Japan (3,500 mt).

Thursday's slaughter totaled 127,000 head, steady with a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago.

Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending Sept. 17, steers averaged 918 pounds, which is 4 pounds heavier than the previous week and 6 pounds heavier than a year ago. For the same week, heifers averaged 832 pounds, which is a pound heavier that the week before and 4 pounds heavier than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.47 ($246.08) and select up $0.57 ($219.78) with a movement of 150 loads (88.05 loads of choice, 30.53 loads of select, 11.00 loads of trim and 20.84 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that close to 80,000 head of cattle have traded already this week it's likely that Friday's market only sees some clean up trade which will likely be done at steady money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the support that stemmed from live cattle trading slightly higher, and upon seeing the market's stronger export report -- which just helped fuel supportive tones throughout the cattle complex -- feeder cattle finally had a better day and saw the complex closed steadily above $2.00 higher. October feeders closed $2.32 higher at $177.32, November feeders closed $2.55 higher at $177.82 and January feeders closed $2.47 higher at $178.42. Given that both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were able to close higher Thursday afternoon, the market now wonders: has the bottom of this move been established? At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, full and fleshy steer calves traded $5.00 to $8.00 lower. Heifer claves under 450 pounds traded steady to $2.00 lower, those weighing 450 to 600 pounds traded $8.00 to $10.00 lower, and those heifers weighing 600 to 700 pounds traded $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Yearling steers were only lightly tested but they sold steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 28%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 28: down $1.52, $175.94.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex endured another minor sell-off before Thursday's final bell as the entire complex, besides the October 2022 contract, closed lower. October lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $89.45, December lean hogs closed $0.10 lower at $75.72 and February lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $79.07. The market stomached mixed fundamental support Thursday as packers did cut back on production (only processing 476,000 head) and pork cutouts closed almost $2.00 lower (mainly thanks to the $16.38 drop in bellies). However, the market did see support in its export report as 34,300 metric tons were sold, and the day's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was rather supportive given that all figures came in 1% to 2% lighter than a year ago. Pork cutouts totaled 342.81 loads with 308.16 loads of pork cuts and 34.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.97, $98.80. Thursday's slaughter totaled 476,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago but 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 27: down $0.81, $95.60.

Pork net sales of 34,300 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (23,700 mt), South Korea (2,900 mt) and China (2,000 mt).

­­­­­FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it's Friday and packers have already mostly filled their commitments for the week, it's likely that they won't be very aggressive in Friday's market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Complex Finally Sees Some Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With the surprisingly strong export report for both beef and pork, the livestock complex has traded mostly higher throughout Thursday's market. Thursday afternoon the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 429.30 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Upon seeing the day's strong export report, the live cattle market is rallying modestly into Thursday's afternoon. After a brutal week when crashing commodity sales have been the market's focus, as well as the greater economic uncertainty, seeing even the smallest essence of support is relieving to the live cattle market. October live cattle are up $0.70 at $143.75, December live cattle are up $0.82 at $147.07 and February live cattle are up $0.65 at $150.82. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any interest from packers arise at this point and it's likely that the majority of the week's business is done with. With packers having bought over 116,000 head last week, they now sit on enough inventory to let this week's market mostly pass them by. Throughout the week, Northern dressed cattle have sold for mostly $228, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have sold for $143, which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Beef net sales of 21,500 mt for 2022 were primarily for South Korea (7,300 mt), China (6,000 mt) and Japan (3,500 mt).

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.63 ($246.92) and select up $0.65 ($219.86) with a movement of 85 loads (51.25 loads of choice, 15.94 loads of select, 8.44 loads of trim and 9.77 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with the corn market trading steady to $0.02 higher in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle contracts are trading over $1.00 stronger into Thursday's afternoon. It's helping the feeder cattle market that both the live cattle and lean hog contracts are trending higher, but now the market will look to its fundamental side to hopefully garnish even more support. Feeder cattle sales have been extremely hit or miss throughout the countryside as drought related marketing strategies are having to be implemented by ranchers as u drought remains a prevalent factor on most operations in the West and Midwest. September feeders are up $0.32 at $175.70, October feeders are up $1.27 at $176.27 and November feeders are up $1.45 at $176.75.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is rallying off the support found early Thursday morning in the day's strong export report. Hopefully this positive momentum continues to be the market's theme throughout the afternoon and the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report displays a bullish outlook for the upcoming quarters, which would undoubtedly add more support to the market. October lean hogs are up $0.80 at $90.17, December lean hogs are up $0.55 at $76.37 and February lean hogs are up $0.65 at $80.12. It's tough saying whether or not the marekt has established a new bottom after sinking to prices not last seen since mid-December 2021 -- but based on how the market is trading today, slightly stronger tones are helping the market this Thursday. Pork net sales of 34,300 mt for 2022 were primarily for Mexico (23,700 mt), South Korea (2,900 mt) and China (2,000 mt).

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.81 with a weighted average of $88.44, ranging from $80.00 to $102.00 on 4,401 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.38. Pork cutouts total 134.32 loads with 120.53 loads of pork cuts and 13.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.46, $100.31.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Demand Concerns Continue to Pressure Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle traded Wednesday with prices ranging from steady to $1.00 lower. Feedlots saw the weakness in futures and the potential for lower prices and decided to move cattle and take the best they could get. The strong U.S. dollar may have some impact on international demand, which may be seen on the weekly export sales report Thursday morning. Slaughter continues to remain strong, which requires more cattle to maintain the pace. However, there is concern that pace may slow if demand slows due to higher food and energy prices. Boxed beef closed lower with choice down $0.88 and select down $2.00.

Hogs continued the weakness, but the descent was less than it had been. October closed higher on some light spread trading. The market is oversold and ready for a bounce. There may be some short-covering Thursday as traders prepare for the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report. Trade estimates are for all hogs and pigs at 99.2% of a year ago. Kept for breeding is estimated at 99.6%. Hogs kept for marketing is estimated at 99.1%. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $4.09 as packers have most of their needs met for the week and are paying less for what they purchase. Cutouts were higher posting a gain of $1.76. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 130,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures are oversold and ripe for a technical bounce. Fundamental strength may come if weekly export sales are good.	1)	Even with the strength of the outside markets Wednesday, cattle futures were not able to uncover any strength.
2)	Slaughter pace remains strong, which continues to move cattle through the system, keeping supply from backing up.	2)	The high U.S. dollar may impact international demand for beef. This would back up supply, resulting in lower prices to move product in the domestic market.
3)	Spread trading resulting in October closing higher may signal the "Katie-bar-the-door" selling may have run its course	3)	The weakness of hog futures has left traders unwilling to step into the market aggressively on the buy side. A price bottom needs to be found before traders feel confident of a price retracement.
4)	Hog futures are oversold, and short covering may take place ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report.	4)	Hog weights increased to 280.3 pounds, up 0.7 pounds for the previous week, indicating the trend for higher weights during this time of year is unfolding.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Market Hopes Export Report Sheds Some Light

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another tough day in the marketplace for livestock producers as they watched lower closes overcome the live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog markets. Heading into Thursday's market, the morning's export data is going to be highly sought after as both beef and pork producers desperately need all the support they can get for foreign markets. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $4.09 with a weighted average of $93.28 on 8,336 head. December corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 548.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex fell right in line with the rest of the livestock complex's lower ending trend. October live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $143.05, December live cattle closed $0.62 lower at $146.27 and February live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $150.17. Boxed beef prices took a hit Wednesday afternoon as both select and choice cuts closed lower, but thankfully some of that pressure that the market absorbed can be offset by the day's aggressive slaughter pace and steady to $1.00 lower cash cattle trade. There was a light to moderate movement in the North were cattle traded for mostly $228 which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average (but some cattle did trade for $231). A few more pens sold in the South for $143, which is steady with both Tuesday's business and last week's weighted average. It's likely that the week's cash cattle sales are all but done with given that packers bought aggressively last week. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head, steady with a week ago but 9,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.88 ($247.55) and select down $2.00 ($219.21) with a movement of 165 loads (97.43 loads of choice, 33.21 loads of select, 18.74 loads of trim and 15.36 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $28.34.

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Any more cattle that trade will likely fall right in line with the week's average.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The nearby corn contracts were able to tack on another $0.03 to their contracts before the day's end, which kept the feeder cattle contracts trading lower through Wednesday's close. The market stood little chance of trading higher given the stiff outside pressures that's fully infiltrated the livestock complex, but with that, and the combination of slightly higher corn prices, a lower close was the market's only option. October feeders closed $1.12 lower at $175.00, November feeders closed $1.00 lower at $175.27 and January feeders closed $0.85 lower at $175.95. At Bassett Livestock Auction in Bassett, Nebraska, compared to two weeks ago, 850-pound steers traded steady, but those weighing 900 to 950 pounds traded $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Compared heifer offerings weighing 850 pounds traded $4.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds for that sale was 100%. At Kingsville Livestock Auction in Kingsville, Missouri, compared to last week, the majority of steers under 800 pounds traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher and those over 800 pounds traded $3.00 to $5.00 stronger. Heifers sold firm to $3.00 higher. Demand was good for a heavy supply as dry conditions are bringing cattle to town sooner than normal and this week's sale saw a significant increase in the number of calves that were offered. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds for that sale was 51%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 27: down $0.36, $177.46.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continued to bleed through Wednesday's end but thankfully the market's losses weren't as steep as the day's earlier this week. October lean hogs closed $0.67 higher at $89.37, December lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $75.82 and February lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $79.47. Thursday is going to be a big day for the hog market as traders and hog producers alike will be mulling over the day's export report, and the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Pork cutouts totaled 275.79 loads with 229.62 loads of pork cuts and 46.17 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.76, $100.77. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head, steady with a week ago but 17,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 26: down $0.58, $96.41.

­­­­­THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have shown considerable interest in this week's market. Even though Wednesday's afternoon report showed lower prices, the day's volume was noteworthy given that packers were aggressive on both Monday and Tuesday of this week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Contracts Continue to Bleed Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Yet again, we see another day where the livestock complex plummets lower as outside pressures of the market's economy continued to consume the largest portion of the market's focus. December corn is up 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 393.49 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The cash cattle market hasn't seen any business renewed at this point, and aside from the few head that traded Tuesday afternoon for steady prices, largely the market remains undeveloped. If the cash cattle market can successfully keep prices steady, then that bodes well for entire cattle complex as it shows that strength remains in some of the market's fundamentals. But given that packers have paid the market little to no attention Wednesday, feedlots are going to have their work cutout for them this week as packers will use the market's weakness as a bargaining tool. October live cattle are down $0.50 at $143.07, December live cattle are down $0.70 at $146.20 and February live cattle are down $0.55 at $150.30.

The Fed Cattle Exchange Auction held Wednesday reported seven lots (six lots in Texas and one lot in Kansas), totaling 1,077 head of cattle, none of which sold. Opening prices were at $141, high bids had a range of $141 to $143, but none of these bids met reserve prices of $143 to $144.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.40 ($248.83) and select down $1.29 ($219.92) with a movement of 113 loads (69.20 loads of choice, 20.89 loads of select, 12.90 loads of trim and 10.34 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market aiding no support to the feeder cattle complex and corn trading just slightly above steady prices, the feeder cattle complex is again trending lower into Wednesday's afternoon. October feeders are down $1.25 at $174.87, November feeders are down $1.07 at $175.20 and January feeders are down $0.75 at $176.05. As September looks at its final trading days of the month, cow-calf producers who have yet to sell their calves are scratching their heads, wondering when this pressure will ease and how much more it's going to cost the market in the meantime.

LEAN HOGS:

The entire livestock complex has taken a beating this week, but the lean hog complex's chart is ugly -- very ugly. Day after day, the market carves out a new low for the move, which is equivalent to the lowest prices the market has seen since in the last nine months. Questions about demand continue to hang over both the cattle and hog markets, but especially in the hog market as China has attempted to cheapen their own pork prices by releasing reserves three times this month. Nevertheless, both packers and producers are praying that export demand shows something positive come Thursday, and both continue to anxiously monitor domestic prices as support is dearly needed. October lean hogs are up $0.05 at $88.75, December lean hogs are down $0.52 at $75.72 and February lean hogs are down $1.02 at $79.32.

The projected lean hog index for Sept. 27 down $0.81 at $95.60, and the actual index for Sept. 26 is down $0.58 at $96.41. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.26 with a weighted average of $89.25, ranging from $82.00 to $102.00 on 4,303 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.59. Pork cutouts total 152.45 loads with 132.56 loads of pork cuts and 19.89 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.89, $99.90.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Price Support Remains Elusive

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Selling again dominated the livestock complex Tuesday. Live cattle showed weakness as light activity in the cash market showed cattle trading steady with last week and has likely set the tone for the week. Packers had some cattle purchased ahead and the concern over ongoing demand hangs over the market. Boxed beef prices remain lackluster with choice up $0.59 and select down $2.14. Slaughter pace continues to remain strong, but packers are finding little difficulty obtain supply to satisfy the need. Feeder cattle continued its weakness despite what corn price is doing. Technical selling has gripped the market and has not let go, moving futures down to the levels last seen in June. Thursday is the last trading day for September feeders.

The sell-off in hogs has been massive with the December contract losing around $12.00 in the last week. Yes, the concern over demand is very real, but falling prices continue to trigger stops, setting off further liquidation. The Commitment of Traders report last week showed funds being net buyers of 13,167 contracts, bringing their net-long positions to 64,664 contracts. This was the day before the meltdown. This added fuel to the fire as the recent longs saw it was the wrong move and liquidated. A sell-off of this magnitude has not been seen in quite some time. Traders will turn their attention to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report Thursday, which may result in short-covering. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a surprising increase in cash of $5.49. However, cutouts ended the day down $2.45.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Slaughter continues to run strong as packers are meeting steady demand. This should keep them buying at no less than steady cash.	1)	The concern over ongoing demand has put pressure on the market. The strong U.S. dollar may impact international demand, slowing exports.
2)	Feeder cattle are oversold and could find some short-covering soon after the large price decline.	2)	Feeder cattle still have more downside remaining to fulfill the head and shoulders technical projection.
3)	A chart gap in hog futures remains substantially above the current market, which may be filled at some point. Futures are oversold.	3)	The massive sell-off in hog futures may leave traders very cautious about re-entering the market on the long side until after the Hogs and Pigs report.
4)	Pork is well priced in grocery stores compared to other meat and poultry. This should increase demand.	4)	Packers for the most part may be done buying for the week and will offer lower money for purchasing hogs the rest of the week.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Continue Lower, Cash Cattle Trade Steady

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog contracts fell back as the likelihood of higher interest rates consumed the market and sent prices tumbling. The cash cattle market saw some cattle trade in the South for $143, which is steady with last week's business. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, up $5.49 with a weighted average of $97.37 on 25,754 head. December corn is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 125.82 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another brutal day for the live cattle complex as the market traipsed lower thanks to unwavering economic concerns. October live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $143.57, December live cattle closed $0.45 lower at $146.90 and February live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $150.85. Some feedlots have their commodities already bought and operating loans secured for the upcoming feeding months, but at some point, all will have to go back into their bank's office and sit down to discuss next year's loans and what that loan's interest rate will be, which is what's weighing heavily on cattlemen in all sectors of the business right now. The cash cattle market saw a light trade develop in parts of the South for $143, which is steady with last week's business. Some Southern feedlots are remaining firm in their $145 asking price, and still asking prices in the North are unknown. More business is expected to develop on Wednesday, but with packers having bought over 116,000 head least week, they may be less aggressive in this week's market. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 128,000 head, steady with a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.59 ($248.43) and select down $2.14 ($221.21) with a movement of 171 loads (81.64 loads of choice, 51.07 loads of select, 14.25 loads of trim and 24.42 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $27.22.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. With the immense technical sellout that the market is currently seeing, it's likely that packers try to keep prices steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't stand a chance at rounding out the day higher by Tuesday's end, as the market faced pushback from the economy's frightened state, from the corn complex's mild gain before closing and from some pressure in the countryside as bawling calves are seeing hesitancy from buyers. October feeders closed $0.95 lower at $176.12, November feeders closed $0.77 lower at $176.27 and January feeders closed $0.92 lower at $176.80. At Blue Grass Stockyards in Lexington, Kentucky, compared to last week, feeder steers sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower with freshly bawling calves facing the deepest discounts. Many new crop, bawling, short-weaned calves hit the market and buyers unarguably showed preference for long-weaned calf packages. Feeder heifers sold $2.00 to $5.00 higher with some three-weights selling for as much as $10.00 higher. Slaughter cows traded steady to $1.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 50%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 26: down $0.90, $177.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex endured yet another brutal trading day as the December contract fell to prices not seen since last December. October lean hogs closed $1.67 lower at $88.70, December lean hogs closed $3.15 lower at $76.25 and February lean hogs closed $3.30 lower at $80.35. The fundamental side of the market saw mixed reviews as pork cutout prices closed lower -- which could draw in more buying from dollar-savvy consumers -- but slaughter speeds and the cash market both saw excellent support. Given that the market has so much outside influence right now that's driving prices lower, the fact that Thursday will unveil another Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report hasn't gotten much attention from market participants. In trying to gauge the long-term trajectory of the market, Thursday's report will be key in seeing where current inventories. Pork cutouts totaled 374.88 loads with 328.30 loads of pork cuts and 46.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.45, $99.01. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and but 12,000 head more than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 23: down $0.60, $96.99.

­­­­­WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers were aggressive in both Monday's and Tuesday's market, one would be led to believe that they're needs are mostly met and that they'll be less aggressive in the second half of the week. Then again, it's extremely unusual for packers to support the hog market on Mondays, which could mean that they're short bought and needing to buy up inventory.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Live Cattle, Hogs Lower After Cautiously Higher Start

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Tuesday's commodities are mixed, taking advantage of a temporary pause in the U.S. dollar. November feeder cattle are lower, pressured by Tuesday's higher corn price. December cattle and December hogs tried to start higher but are now extending Monday's new lows. December corn is trading up 6 cents and December soybean meal is up $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading down 157 points as the Fed promises more rate hikes ahead.

LIVE CATTLE:

December cattle are trading down $0.65 at $146.70 at midday Tuesday, leaning lower again after a cautious higher start. Outside market concerns continue to weigh heavy on commodity prices, including cattle with concerns that a slower economy will hurt beef demand at the retail counter. Last week's unweighted average for live steers came in at $145.09 Monday, up $1.45 from the previous week. The unweighted average for dressed steers was $228.90, up $2.04 from the previous week. 116,546 of negotiated volume last week was an encouraging indication of packer demand, but this market remains spooked by outside market concerns and is vulnerable to more noncommercial selling. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials holding 120,432 long contracts of live cattle as of September 20, 2022, the most since February. 

The overall slaughter pace so far in 2022 is running up 1.5% from a year ago and was steady at 667,000 last week. Dow Jones estimated Tuesday's cattle slaughter at 127,000, an active pace and the same as last week. Tuesday morning's choice boxed beef prices were up $1.07 at $248.91, while selects were down $1.27 at $222.08 with a total load count of 90. Choice boxed beef is near its lowest prices in a year and a half, curiously low for an economy in the midst of an inflation problem.

FEEDER CATTLE:

November feeder cattle are trading down $1.55 at $175.50, pressured again by concerns of slower economic growth ahead and by December corn trading 5 cents higher Tuesday morning. Technically, November feeder cattle broke below their 100-day average one week ago and prices have slid lower since as it's difficult to pencil out a positive return for feeders when the future of retail beef demand is not looking good. For the November contract, the May low near $171 may offer support, depending on how retail demand weathers the current storm. The CME Feeder Cattle Index ended at $178.71 Friday, tracking near the September price.

LEAN HOGS:

December lean hogs are trading down $2.95 at $76.45, extending Monday's new seven-month low. Tuesday morning's carcass value of $102.07 is 61 cents higher, but still near its lowest prices since January. The lower prices should actually serve pork well at the retail counter and help the slaughter pace stay active, even if the economy slows moving forward. Thursday afternoon's Hogs and Pigs report from USDA will get traders interest and offer some direction on where inventories currently stand. Private estimates are looking for Sept. 1 hog inventory to be down roughly 1.6% from a year ago, a generally supportive outlook for hog prices in an economy with difficult challenges ahead. Tuesday morning's Daily Direct Hog report showed the swine formula base down to $93.76. Negotiated hogs had no morning update and were last seen at $91.88 Monday afternoon. USDA expects pork production to increase 8.6% in the fourth quarter, but it is difficult to see how that will happen without increased inventory. Technically, Monday's new seven-month low was a bearish break in prices that should lead to more noncommercial selling. Friday's CFTC report showed noncommercials holding 89,178 contracts long as of Sept. 20, a big position to hang on to when prices are extending new lows.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Rebound Likely, But May Be Limited

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The continued meltdown of the financial markets spilled over into commodities with prices lower across the board. A recession is looming, and traders were afraid of the impact on markets. Cattle spent some time in positive territory but retreated as pressure continued to build. Cash cattle did not trade as expected, but it may be difficult for feedlots to achieve higher cash this week due to the recent circumstances. The slightly negative Cattle on Feed report, along with the potential for lower demand as consumers grapple with higher prices, may increase the resolve of packers to hold or reduce bids. Boxed beef was mixed Monday with Choice down $0.79 and Select up $4.04. With stock futures higher overnight, cattle may see a bounce.

Hogs could not find any support Monday, even though cash was strong and cutouts were higher. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $5.54 with cutouts gaining $0.53. Liquidation erupted as pressure from the outside markets mounted. The weakness pushed futures quickly below support, which resulted in further liquidation. What has been technical support since May is now price resistance. There is fear over ongoing demand if inflation is not brought under control anytime soon. Traders are now in a quandary as the futures have fallen dramatically over the past four days and they look ahead to the quarterly Hogs & Pigs report Thursday.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Even though cattle have been weaker, feedlots may not be ready to give up the fight for higher cash this week. Slaughter pace remains strong.	1)	Live cattle falling below support and feeder cattle making new lows for the move are not technically friendly to the market.
2)	Feeder cattle are oversold technically and ready for a bounce.	2)	Packers bought cattle ahead last week which may leave them less aggressive this week resulting in lower cash.
3)	Strong cash for hogs Monday showed packers needed to purchase supply for an increasing slaughter pace.	3)	Chart support now becomes resistance, making it difficult for hog futures to move back into the range they had been in all summer.
4)	Packer margins are improving, which may result in cash prices slowly beginning to trend higher.	4)	The upcoming Hogs & Pigs report may leave traders less aggressive about buying into the market until the numbers are known.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Lower as Widespread Selling Summaries Events

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex couldn't avoid the market's looming pressure as investors become more and more fixated on the brutal combination of higher interest rates and hot inflation. The entire livestock complex closed lower and seemed to be focused on one thing -- the economy's weakened state. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $5.54 with a weighted average of $91.88 on 8,882 head. December corn is down 10 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 329.60 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

There are your normal "Mondays" and then there are Mondays like today. The live cattle complex wasn't able to pass by the market's overwhelming sellout as traders become increasingly worried about our economy. The live cattle futures dug a considerable hole as the spot December contract closed below the market's 100-day moving average -- which adds yet bearish coat to the market's mix. October live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $143.47, December live cattle closed $1.20 lower at $147.35 and February live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $151.45. The cash cattle market didn't see any interest develop in its market and given that packers bought aggressively last week, it's likely that they use this week's doggish attitude to hold prices steady and they could even try to work them $1.00 or $2.00 lower. New showlists appear to be mixed, somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, but slightly lower in Texas, and lower in Kansas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head - 2,000 head less than a week ago and 6,00 head more than a year ago.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 116,546 head. Of which 66% (77,256 head) were purchased for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 34% (39,290 head) were purchased for the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.79 ($247.84) and select up $4.04 ($223.35) with a movement of 110 loads (60.70 loads of choice, 21.56 loads of select, 12.36 loads of trim and 15.23 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $24.49.

TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers bought 116,000 head last week, it's likely that they give the cash cattle market the cold shoulder this week and use the market's lower tone to keep prices at least steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

On the bright side, corn closed lower, but unfortunately so did all the other livestock contracts including feeder cattle. With the widespread selling across the commodity markets as fearful concerns about our economy become rooted in everyone's mind -- the feeder cattle complex didn't stand much of a chance at closing higher. September feeders closed $1.25 lower at $176.87, October feeders closed $1.27 lower at $177.07 and November feeders closed $1.20 lower at $177.05. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers traded steady and feeder heifers traded $3.00 to $6.00 lower. Steer calves were not well tested, and heifer calves traded $10.00 to $15.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 45%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/23/2022: down $1.44, $178.71.

LEAN HOGS:

On a normal day, I'd be thrilled to see cash trading higher on a Monday in the hog complex alongside a stronger pork cutout close and an aggressive slaughter day all to start the week off. But given the state of the economy and the rightful fears of higher interest rates and inflation -- unfortunately those supportive factors of the market don't amount to much today. October lean hogs closed $2.25 lower at $90.37, December lean hogs closed $3.40 lower at $79.40 and February lean hogs closed $3.40 lower at $83.60. Bellied helped the pork cutout figure close higher as they jumped $5.16 higher compared to Friday's end but given that the rest of the market saw hit-and-miss demand, it wouldn't be surprising to see the rest of the week's reports mimic that back-and-forth tone. Pork cutouts totaled 347.77 loads with 289.69 loads of pork cuts and 58.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.53, $101.46. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 9/22/2022: $0.42, $97.59.

­­­­­TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. It was interesting to see packers so aggressive in Monday's market while the futures complex had a mere meltdown. Given that packers chased cash hogs throughout Monday's trade it's likely an indication that they're somewhat short bought and could need to support the market again come Tuesday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Outside Pressures Send Complex Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

At the day's opening bell, the cattle complex seemed as though it was going to trade strong; but as time passed, outside market concerns pushed contracts lower. The lean hog complex is in the same boat as its market is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and desperately needs to see strong domestic consumer support. December lean hogs are down $2.88 at $79.925, December corn is down 7 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 270.76 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures are plunging lower as the market's strong show in the cash cattle sector isn't enough support to outweigh the pressures of the economy's uncertainty. October live cattle are down $0.75 at $143.50, December live cattle are down $1.25 at $147.30, and February live cattle are down $1.07 at $151.62. With boxed beef prices waning and packers now having to chase the cash market a little more aggressively -- monitoring slaughter speed is incredibly important. If boxes continue to work their way lower, packers may cut production in the form of slowing processing to preserve margin.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded for $143, which is $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $228, which is also $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices have not been updated by the USDA at this time.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures started the day off higher, but as the morning progressed lower tones sent the market tumbling lower. Friday's Cattle on Feed Report came out neutral as placements and on-feed totals were steady with a year ago, but marketings were 6% higher. Nevertheless, the market seems to be trading lower not because of Friday's report necessarily, but because of overbearing outside pressures (higher interest rates, higher inflation and overall economic uncertainty). October feeders are down $0.82 at $177.52, November feeders are down $0.57 at $177.67 and January feeders are down $0.92 at $178.55. Thankfully the corn complex isn't adding to the list of market pressures as it's trading 5 to 6 cents lower.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is taking a wild ride in Monday's market and unfortunately the spot December contract is carving out a new low for the move, which is pressuring prices not last seen since February 2022. October lean hogs are down $1.97 at $90.65, December lean hogs are down $2.75 at $80.05, and February lean hogs are down $2.77 at $84.27. It's likely the market is concerned with China's third release of pork reserved last week and is skeptical of what this week's export report will unveil. Continuing to monitor pork cutout values will be one of the most important signals for the lean hog market as packers are going to need to see consumer support here domestically.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/23/2022 is down $0.60 at $96.99, and the actual index for 9/22/2022 is down $0.42 at $97.59. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $4.24 with a weighted average of $90.45, ranging from $82.00 to $100.00 on 5,271 head and a five-day rolling average of $93.03. Pork cutouts total 198.67 loads with 166.28 loads of pork cuts and 32.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.64, $101.57.

The Cattle Contracts Library Pilot Program Moves Ahead

The USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service published a Notice to Trade related to the Cattle Contracts Library Pilot Program. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association says the Library is designed to be a tool for cattle producers, making information available that may allow them to capture unrealized value for their livestock. “We are pleased to see the pilot program progressing and note the important decision to use the Livestock Mandatory Reporting statutes as a basis for any subsequent rulemakings,” says NCBA Vice President of Government Affairs Ethan Lane. “We look forward to continuing to work with staff at AMS to ensure the success of this tool as well as the protection of our members’ proprietary business information.” The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2022 directed the AMS to create a Cattle Contracts Library Pilot Program to increase market transparency for U.S. cattle producers. AMS is drafting a rule to ensure complete contractual information gets reported.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Outside Markets Will Influence Trading Activity

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trading higher last week was not enough to overcome the concern of traders over the impact of the meltdown of the stock market last week on concerns of the potential of a recession and the impact that could have on demand. Boxed beef has been struggling and trending lower and the activity of the week in the financial sector did not make traders feel warm and fuzzy. Cash traded $1.00 high in both North and South, which should keep feedlots asking for more this week. Boxed beef closed mixed Friday with choice up $0.23 and select down $2.80. Another influence of trading on Friday was the Cattle on Feed report. True to form, the trade under guessed the placement number. Placements during the month of August were nearly 2.0% at 100% of a year ago. This was not as bad as it has been over the past reports, but it is slightly bearish. On feed was right on the average trade estimate at 100%. Marketings were at 106%, which is positive. Due to the marketing number being right at estimates, it is considered neutral. Bottom line is the report is slightly bearish, but the weakness of futures the second half of last week may already have that factored in.

Hogs could not catch a break Friday, suffering a third day of substantial losses. December through May contracts left a gap on the open as traders were quick to sell the market. The same financial concern that hit cattle was prevalent in hogs as the impact of a recession on demand is uncertain. Cash fell $7.69 on the National Direct Afternoon Hog report. Packers did not need to be aggressive to finish out the week and it certainly showed. Another concern was the $2.95 decline of cutouts. Slaughter pace remained stronger than last week and a year ago as hogs remain available to the market and packers need to continue to supply demand. Hog futures seem to be headed to retest the lows of the trading range.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Marketing of cattle did well during August with an increase of 6.0% over a year. This strong pace may tighten cattle supply quickly.	1)	Placements were again higher than estimated on the Cattle of Feed report. More cattle will be available for a longer period than anticipated.
2)	The market may have over corrected to the downside ahead of the Cattle on Feed report with traders possibly wanting to buy the break.	2)	The head & shoulders formation in feeder cattle remains valid with substantially lower prices possible before the objective is met.
3)	Chart gaps from Friday remain above the December through May contracts in hog futures. These gaps generally are filled.	3)	Packers continue to work on improving margins and are able to purchase hogs at lower prices for increased slaughter without difficulty.
4)	The liquidation phase may have run its course during the second half of the week. A retest of support may bring buyers back into the market.	4)	China released more of their pork reserves to limit the rise of internal pork prices. This may reduce the amount purchased from the U.S.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Run From Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Friday's market lent the livestock complex no favors as the contracts dived lower upon the onset of higher interest rates which created uncertainly throughout the entire marketplace. The cattle complex had even more anxiety heading into the afternoon as it awaited Friday's Cattle on Feed Report. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $7.69 with a weighted average of $86.34 on 3,395 head. December corn is down 11 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $5.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 486.27 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

With the futures complex plunging lower no matter where you looked, the live cattle complex jumped on the market's lower bandwagon as it was not only concerned about the Fed's interest rate hike but also about what Friday's Cattle on Feed Report would amount to. Thankfully, Friday's Cattle on Feed report came out mostly neutral as placements were slightly higher than a year ago but fed cattle marketings were 6% higher.

October live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $144.25, December live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $148.55, and February live cattle closed $1.07 lower at $152.70. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded for $143, which is $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $228, which is also $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be 33,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 667,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 24,000 head more than a year ago.

Friday's Imported Meat report shared that for the week fresh beef imports totaled 23,568 metric tons with Canada, Mexico and Australia being the biggest importers. Year-to-date fresh beef imports total 867,310 metric tons, which is 8% greater than when compared to a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week total 2,528 metric tons with Brazil contributing 67% of that shipment. Year-to-date processed beef imports total 69,966 metric tons which is 21% greater than when compared to a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.23 ($248.63) and select down $2.80 ($219.31) with a movement of 100 loads (50.65 loads of choice, 28.17 loads of select, 8.46 loads of trim and 12.27 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $250.05 (down $4.71 from the week before) and select cuts averaged $224.14 (down $7.08 from the previous week) and the week's movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaled 765 loads.

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlots were again able to trade cattle higher this week, they'll like set out to price cattle higher next week as they know packers will continue to need the cattle given the chain speeds they're running.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex tried to focus on the corn market's 11- to 12-cent plumet through the day's end, but with the added complexity of the raised interest rates, mass selling throughout the futures complex and the unknown nature of the Cattle on Feed report -- the market closed mostly lower. October feeders closed $0.37 higher at $178.35, November feeders closed $0.20 higher at $178.25, and January feeders closed $0.47 lower at $179.47. With corn prices and interest rates being on the forefront of buyers' minds, next week's market will look for support and hopefully the cash cattle market will again trade cattle higher and give traders some comfort. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that throughout the week feeder steers traded steady to $1.00 lower, except those weighing over 800 pounds which traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded mostly steady. Steer calves sold steady to $3.00 lower and heifer calves traded steady to $4.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $2.00 to $5.00 lower and slaughter bulls traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 39%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 9/22/2022: up $0.40, $180.15.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a wild day for the lean hog complex as the market absorbed two news blasts. The first came from China as they released their third batch of pork reserves this month to try to curve rising prices. China was a buyer listed on Thursday's export report, but the market took the news bearishly as exporting product remains crucial to our market's wellbeing. Secondly, news came Friday afternoon that South Korea has confirmed that two large farms have dealt with an outbreak of African swine fever, reported Pigs333. Nevertheless, the market had plenty to absorb this afternoon and given the vast selling that took place in the commodity markets, the lean hog complex followed suit. October lean hogs closed $1.50 lower at $92.62, December lean hogs closed $2.87 lower at $82.80, and February lean hogs closed $2.70 lower at $87.05. Pork cutouts totaled 279.43 loads with 256.56 loads of pork cuts and 22.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.95, $100.93. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 474,000 head - 2,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 134,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 9/21/2022: up $0.05, $98.01.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Packers won't likely show interest in the cash market until Tuesday or later.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Lower Tones Settle into the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With a depressed tone settling into all of the livestock contracts as the market heads into the day's afternoon, a lower close could be expected for the contracts.

LIVE CATTLE:

Friday's market continues to trade with a doggish and skeptical tone as the market anxiously awaits Friday's Cattle on Feed Report. Traders and cattlemen alike would love to believe analysts' estimates for the report but given that they've gotten their hopes up in months past believing that placements will be lower only to see on Friday afternoon that they're reported higher has everyone leery. Regardless of how the on-feed and placement data fairs, the market is at least going to be able to appreciate the marketing portion of the report as analysts believe marketings could be as much as 6.5% higher than a year ago. October live cattle are down $0.55 at $144.30, December live cattle are down $0.70 at $148.67 and February live cattle are down $0.87 at $152.90. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any bids renewed at this time and it's looking like the vast majority of the week's business is done. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded for $143 which is $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $228 which is also $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted average.

Friday's Imported Meat report shares that for the week fresh beef imports totaled 23,568 metric tons with Canada, Mexico and Australia being the biggest importers. Year-to-date fresh beef imports total 867,310 metric tons, which is 8% greater than when compared to a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week total 2,528 metric tons with Brazil contributing 67% of that shipment. Year-to-date processed beef imports total 69,966 metric tons which is 21% greater than when compared to a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.11 ($248.29) and select down $1.52 ($220.59) with a movement of 64 loads (41.73 loads of choice, 9.51 loads of select, 5.37 loads of trim and 7.47 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market continues to sell out despite the corn complex trading as much as $0.12 to $0.13 lower in its nearby contracts. September feeders are down $0.17 at $178.02, October feeders are down $0.02 at $177.95 and November feeders are down $0.20 at $177.90. The market would like to rest its hat on the wins the fat cattle market saw earlier this week, but until the market can see exactly how Friday's Cattle on Feed report pans out, all are hesitant. However, if the report can indeed display what analyst's projected, then the market sits in a fine position to rally as early as next week.

LEAN HOGS:

With the rest of the livestock complex taking a hesitant stance in Friday's market, the lean hog market has opted to follow suit even though it saw strong export sales on Thursday and pork cutout values closed $3.53 higher Thursday afternoon. October lean hogs are down $1.22 at $92.90, December lean hogs are down $2.45 at $83.22 and February lean hogs are down $2.30 at $87.45. It's likely that the market keeps with this lower trend through closing, but it won't likely pressure the market support plane of $82.25.

The projected lean hog index for 9/22/2022 is down $0.42 at $97.59, and the actual index for 9/21/2022 is up $0.05 at $98.01. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $7.71 with a weighted average of $86.21, ranging from $84.00 to $105.00 on 3,241 head and a five-day rolling average of $93.03. Pork cutouts total 210.13 loads with 197.19 loads of pork cuts and 12.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.30, $101.58.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Choppy Trade Expected Ahead of Report

Even though cash traded mostly $1.00 higher in both the North and South, cattle futures were unable to find support, posting triple-digit losses in nearby contracts for the day. Weekly export sales were not as good as hoped with 15,200 metric tons (mt), which may have added to the negative trade. Likely the focus on the trade turned to the upcoming Cattle on Feed report Friday. On feed numbers as of Sept. 1 are estimated at 100% of a year ago. Placements are expected at 98.5% with marketings at 106%. Placements being lower should be supportive, but the track record of the past number of reports keeps traders nervous over the actual placement number. USDA has been consistently higher than trade estimates. This prompted some profit-taking despite stronger cash. Boxed beef did not help with choice down $0.73 and select down $4.03. Packer margins continue to tighten.

October hogs recorded a fourth consecutive day of losses, as traders just are not excited about the market. Cash was significantly lower with the National Direct Afternoon report showing a loss of $4.12. However, the bright spot was the $3.53 increase in cutouts. This was not enough to generate buying interest from traders. Weekly export sales were good with 29,000 mt sold. China has not been a top buyer, but they have been a consistent buyer recently. Futures may rebound a bit Friday as traders might cover some short positions into the weekend. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 136,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If cattle placements come in as expected on the report Friday, it would provide support to the market as it would solidify the trend of tightening numbers.	1)	Cattle were unable to penetrate and hold new contract highs. This may result in further long liquidation.
2)	Higher cash was expected and received. Packers needed to bid up to obtain the desired supply. Feedlots will set their sights higher next week.	2)	Feeder cattle have fallen significantly with the confirmation of the head-and-shoulders top. Further weakness is expected.
3)	Hogs have shown weakness much of the week with short-covering likely into the weekend.	3)	Hogs just cannot find consistent support from cash or cutouts. This leaves limited upside potential.
4)	Strong cutouts will improve packer margins in turn, allowing them to be more aggressive with their hog purchases to maintain an active slaughter pace.	4)	Hog futures remain overbought, which could result in another day of selling as traders may not have finished liquidating long positions.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Sell-Off Continues

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Perhaps motivated by profit-taking after the livestock markets gave up on making new highs during the latter half of the week, futures traders sold off enough contracts Thursday afternoon to send cattle and hog prices plunging. Outside markets were no help, with the U.S. Dollar Index still headed higher after Wednesday's interest rate hike. Hog prices moved lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $4.12 with a weighted average of $94.03 on 6,811 head. Cash cattle saw light to moderate trade Thursday morning, with Southern live deals at $143 ($1 higher than last week) and Northern dressed deals at mostly $228 (also $1 higher than last week). December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents at $6.88 1/4 per bushel, and December soybean meal closed down $9.90 at $428.90 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 107.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Losses in the live cattle futures market accelerated through the latter half of Thursday's trading session. October live cattle closed $1.025 lower at $144.85, December live cattle closed $1.40 lower at $149.35, and February live cattle closed $1.125 lower at $153.775. The timing of this sell-off, coming after Tuesday's fresh contract highs and ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report, definitely smacks of speculators' profit-taking or closing out positions to manage risk. In contrast, the reality of the cash market for fed cattle has remained hot again this week. Packers have paid up for needed supply. A light to moderate trade developed Thursday morning in all three major feeding areas, with Southern live deals marked at $143, which is $1 higher than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed business is being marked at mostly $228, also $1 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Some asking prices remain firm around $145 on a live basis and $230-plus dressed. Analysts on average are expecting the Friday Cattle on Feed report to show roughly the same Sept. 1 number of cattle on feed as a year ago, after a diminished beef herd contributed a lower quantity of August placements (estimated down 1.5% from last year).

Boxed beef prices closed lower again: choice down $0.73 ($248.40) and select down $4.03 ($222.11) with a movement of 186 loads (82.83 loads of choice, 57.88 loads of select, 7.41 loads of trim and 38.11 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1 higher. Packers have needed to buy cattle to fulfill their slaughter goals, and this week have been meeting the feedlots' asking prices at levels mostly $1 to $3 higher than last week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Triple-digit losses in the feeder cattle contracts Thursday have emphasized the downward trend that has taken this market down more than $10 per cwt since mid-August. At the close, October feeders were $1.25 lower at $177.975, November feeders were $2.275 lower at $178.05, and January feeders were $2.025 lower at $179.95. Despite the unrelentingly expensive feed markets, the cash market for calves and feeder cattle is showing robust demand. Superior Livestock Auction's online sale on Thursday attracted active bidding, and many representative lots of 600- or 700-lb steers easily fetched around $200 per cwt. Salebarns across the countryside are also noticing active markets with lots of buyers and good demand, although prices have either stayed steady or slipped as much as $3 week over week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 9/20/2022: down $0.10, $178.10.

LEAN HOGS:

As the pork market navigates a seasonal shift in which cuts will be most demanded by consumers, day-to-day prices may continue to be volatile. October lean hog futures closed $0.30 lower at $94.125, December lean hogs closed $0.775 lower at $85.675, and February lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $89.75. From a chart perspective, the front-month October contract now has a wide range to flail around inside without testing either support or resistance between $89 and $98 per cwt. Pork packers have been able to find a fairly steady mix of domestic and export markets to buy their products, even without China leading the way anymore. Day-to-day weakness in the rib primal reminds the market that summer grilling season is over, and as of Thursday, it's now officially fall. Pork cutouts totaled 280.62 loads with 245.07 loads of pork cuts and 35.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.53, $103.88. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/20 was down $0.40 at $97.96 and the projected index for 9/21 is up $0.05 at $98.01.

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. After the latest jump in the cash hog prices, the market may now be finding a plateau.