GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a quiet day for the livestock complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading lower while the lean hog market continues to rally. In order for the live cattle complex to trade higher, it's going to need to see strong fundamental support and given that this week's cash cattle trade is likely done with, that support most likely won't come until next week at the soonest. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $10.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 392.34 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trending slightly lower as the market isn't seeing much more interest develop on the cash side of things. Throughout the week Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $142, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have sold for $226 to $227 which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. On Monday it will be interesting to see how many of the cattle bought this week were committed for the nearby delivery as opposed to the deferred delivery as that will help us determine just how short bought packers are. October live cattle are down $0.37 at $145.25, December live cattle are down $0.52 at $150.80 and February live cattle are down $0.50 at $154.87. There was a pen of cattle traded in Nebraska for $143 midmorning, but otherwise the market has sat idly and it's looking like the day's trade is all but done with.
Friday's Imported Meant Passed for Entry report shares that fresh beef imports for the week totaled 18,692 metric tons with Canada, Mexico, and Australia carrying the lion's share of the imports. Fresh beef imports for 2022 currently total 843,742 metric tons, which is 8% greater than a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week total 1,687 metric tons which Brazil and Canada being the biggest importers. Processed beef imports for the year total 67,438 metric tons, which is 21% greater than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.68 ($253.02) and select down $2.47 ($227.48) with a movement of 92 loads (54.22 loads of choice, 22.11 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 15.53 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the corn market holding mostly steady, the feeder cattle market is continuing to waive its white flag as its market keeps trading lower. Feeder cattle demand throughout the countryside has seen hit or miss demand as the markets are noticing that fewer farmer feeders are sitting in sales as they're harvesting. September feeders are down $0.40 at $178.95, October feeders are down $0.27 at $180.65, November feeders are down $0.60 at $182.17. If the cash cattle and live cattle market can keep trending upward, the feeder cattle market may see some trickle in support as early as next week so long as the corn market doesn't add any more pressure. Once this year's corn crop is harvested and it's no longer a gamble trying to determine how much corn the country possesses, the feeder cattle market will be able to breathe again.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog market is keeping with its rallying nature into Friday afternoon. October lean hogs are up $0.60 at $96.65, December lean hogs are up $0.55 at $88.17 and February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $91.70. The lean hog market's excitement is still rallying from the supportive nature of Thursday's export data and as China releases pork from its reserves, it's likely that the country's need to import more product could help our export market. Nevertheless, the combination of stronger exports and modest support from U.S. consumers has helped prop the lean hog market up back up on its feet but monitoring both export sales and domestic demand will continue to be important.
The projected lean hog index for 9/15/2022 is up $0.20 at $97.97, and the actual index for 9/14/2022 is up $0.19 at $97.77. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $4.25 with a weighted average of $90.74, ranging from $87.00 to $102.50 on 4,218 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.15. Pork cutouts total 145.10 loads with 125.11 loads of pork cuts and 19.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.92, $107.77.
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