GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is charging into Monday afternoon mostly higher as stronger tones have pushed deep into the livestock contracts. Both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are anxious to see how the week's cash cattle market develops, and the lean hog complex is anxiously waiting to see what pork cutout values do, as they help gauge consumer demand. December corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $7.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.66 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trending mostly higher into Monday afternoon and feedlots are eager to negotiate cash cattle sales higher again this week. October live cattle are up $0.25 at $145.75, December live cattle are up $0.15 at $150.82, and February live cattle are up $0.15 at $155.25. Feedlots stand a strong chance at seeing cattle trade at least steady, if not even $1.00 or $2.00 higher given that they saw packer interest for cattle grow stronger as last week played on. And with packers continuing to run aggressive slaughter speeds, they can't avoid the cash market for too long as they'll run the risk of becoming short bought. If boxed beef prices can maintain somewhat steady, that will help feedlots' case as it will ease packers' weakening margins. New showlists for the week are mixed -- somewhat higher in Texas, but lower in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska.
Last week Southern live cattle traded for $142, which was $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $226 to $227, which was steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 77,475 head. Of that 74% (57,540 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 26% (19,935 head) were committed for deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.10 ($153.50) and select down $0.73 ($225.92) with a movement of 64 loads (35.52 loads of choice, 14.98 loads of select, 4.45 loads of trim and 9.34 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the corn market trading mostly $0.04 lower in its nearby contracts, and with a strong, supportive tone lingering throughout the cattle complex, the feeder cattle market isn't wasting its opportunity to trade higher. September feeders are up $0.42 at $179.62, October feeders are up $0.95 at $182.20 and November feeders are up $0.80 at $183.57. Given the steep regression the feeder cattle contracts have recently endured, the market poses ample room to trade higher if fundamental support is evident and gives traders enough confidence to move the complex higher. If the cash cattle market can either hold the market steady or push it $1.00 or $2.00 higher and there be no significant rally in corn, then the feeder cattle market sits ripe to recover some ground.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trending higher to start Monday off and given that both pork cutout prices and the futures complex is higher -- a strong tone has settled into the market already. October lean hogs are down $0.42 at $96.47, December lean hogs are up $0.07 at $88.05, and February lean hogs are up $0.17 at $91.82. It's too early in the week to really see what the cash hog market is going to do, but given that export sales were supportive last week and pork cutouts could be hinting at moderate consumer support -- there's a strong possibility that cash prices are higher at midweek. Monitoring pork cutout values will continue to be a top priority for the hog market.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/16/2022 is up $0.45 at $98.42, and the actual index for 9/15/2022 is up $0.20 at $97.97. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.79 with a weighted average of $89.95, ranging from $82.00 to $100.00 on 4,413 head and a five-day rolling average of $94.16. Pork cutouts total 208.80 loads with 179.15 loads of pork cuts and 29.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.79, $108.18.
No comments:
Post a Comment