GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex rounded out Friday's market with a bang as the saw higher closes in the live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog markets. Feedlots are hoping that, given the fact that packers haven't been overly aggressive in the cash market for three weeks now, next week they'll have to chase the market a little harder to get enough cattle bought. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.70 with a weighted average of $91.28 on 4,189 head. December corn is up 16 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 377.19 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $1.13, December live cattle up $0.72; September feeder cattle down $0.88, October feeder cattle up $0.63; October lean hogs up $3.15, December lean hogs up $0.42; September corn up $0.30, December corn up $0.19.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle market saw mixed interest through the week with the futures market performing well, but boxed beef prices and cash cattle prices faced some pushback. Nevertheless, the market is anxious to see what next week's market offers as, even though weak beef demand is expected through September, there's a good chance that feedlots are able to push the cash cattle market somewhat higher and that the futures market notices. October live cattle closed $1.30 higher at $145.67, December live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $150.97, and February live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $155.35. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for mostly $141, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $226 which is $2.50 lower than last week's weighted average in Nebraska.
Imported fresh beef totaled 21,972 metric tons for the week with Australia, Mexico and Canada being the biggest importers. Year-to-date totals of fresh beef passed for entry into the U.S. totals 825,050 metric tons which is 9% greater than that of a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week totaled 2,105 metric tons with Canada being the biggest importer. Year to date totals of processed beef total 65,751 metric tons, which is 22% greater than a year ago.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 92,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 604,000 head, 34,000 head less than a week ago and 25,000 head more than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.75 ($257.26) and select down $1.31 ($234.73) with a movement of 118 loads (74.70 loads of choice, 21.98 loads of select, 8.34 loads of trim and 13.44 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $259.27 (down $0.46 from a week ago) and select cuts averaged $236.90 (down $2.17 from a week ago) and the total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 650 loads.
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. It's unlikely that Monday's market will see much interest as it never does, but come Wednesday there's a good chance that feedlots hold firm at steady money.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle market powered through Friday's trade and rounded out the day fully higher despite the corn complex pushing a $0.14 to $0.24 rally through closing. The feeder cattle market is anxious to get into its first full trading week since the long weekend and to see how demand will pan out. Buyers were active later this week in sales across the country but next week the fat cattle market stands a chance at demanding higher prices, which could positively support the feeder cattle market as well as its own. September feeders closed $0.67 higher at $183.00, October feeders closed $1.17 higher at $185.57 and November feeders closed $1.07 higher at $186.82. As a side note, it's been interesting to watch the far-out deferred contracts as August 2023 feeder cattle closed at $200.05. At Herreid Livestock Market in Herreid, South Dakota, compared to two weeks ago, the best test of the market was on steers weighing 900 to 950 pounds and steers weighing 1,000 to 1,050 pounds and they sold mostly steady. The best test on heifers came on those weighing 850 to 900 pounds and they sold steady to $2.00 lower, and those weighing 901 to 950 pounds and they sold steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 100%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Sept. 8: up $0.93, $181.24.
LEAN HOGS:
Come Friday the lean hog market was able to close the week out on a high note as the futures complex closed slightly higher and even pork cutout values saw improvement. October lean hogs closed $1.05 higher at $93.17, December lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $83.12 and February lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $87.42. The slightly higher push in pork cutout prices largely stemmed from the $5.08 jump in bellies as the other cuts hung closer to steady. It was impressive the vigorous slaughter pace in which packers ran this past week, which will continue to be important for the overall health of the industry (keeping supplies from getting backed and helping retailers offer consumers enough product). Pork cutouts total 328.23 loads with 304.00 loads of pork cuts and 24.24 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.43, $102.87. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head, 49,000 head more than a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 317,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Sept. 7: down $1.22, $100.26.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Until packers see greater margins, it's likely that their participation in the cash market will be thin.
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