Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Push the Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a fruitful day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets rounded out the week on a stronger note. The cash cattle market didn't see much action throughout the day as packers did most of their buying on Thursday. December corn is up 5 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 211.47 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle up $3.28, October live cattle up $2.90; September feeder cattle up $1.90, October feeder cattle up $3.38; October lean hogs up $1.68, December lean hogs up $2.03; September corn up $0.10, December corn up $0.10.

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Please note that the markets will be closed on Monday, September 2 for Labor Day so regular DTN commentary will resume on Tuesday, September 3.

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LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was able to round out the week on a stronger note as thankfully traders were again able to find stable footing in the futures complex which ultimately led to the market's slightly higher close. October live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $178.60, December live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $177.55 and February live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $178.45. Even though trader support was strong this week, the market has not yet been able to take on the resistance around its 100-day moving average. It could be that traders have to wait until fundamental support grows stronger which could be later this fall when seasonally boxed beef prices turn higher, and cash prices begin to trade higher as well. No new cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as packers did most of their buying on Thursday. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $183 which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed deals were marked at mostly $292 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 14,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 611,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 19,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.68 ($309.34) and select down $0.37 ($295.82) with a movement of 98 loads (57.24 loads of choice, 11.17 loads of select, 14.45 loads of trim and 14.82 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. Depending on how many cattle packers bought with time, next week's market could be in the same position it was this week where feedlot managers were hoping to hold prices steady but if packers have enough supply built up prices could trend lower again.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Once again, the feeder cattle complex was led to a higher day-end close as the market closely followed in the live cattle market's direction. Traders were very keen this past week to move the feeder cattle complex in the same direction as the live cattle market as even though trader support was more available this past week -- the market hasn't completely shaken its jitters thanks to ongoing economic and presidential election fears. September feeders closed $0.97 higher at $240.47, October feeders closed $1.07 higher at $237.75 and November feeders closed $0.85 higher at $235.25. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction summary shared that compared to last week steers traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $7.00 higher. Heifer calves sold $3.00 lower to $3.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $1.00 to $2.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $1.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/29/2024: up $0.31, $242.95.

LEAN HOGS:

If you want to look at some powerful charts that display strong trader support and steady, and stable gains – look no further than the lean hog complex. The market was yet again able to close higher as trades were elated to see strong consumer demand and really saw no reason why to pull the reins back on the complex ahead of Friday's close. October lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $82.22, December lean hogs closed $0.22 higher at $72.77 and February lean hogs closed $0.37 higher at $75.37. Hog prices closed $0.09 higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, equating to a weighted average of $76.64 on 1,352 head. Pork cutouts totaled 284.61 loads with 248.05 loads of pork cuts and 36.56 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.34. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 37,000 head. The CME lean hog index 8/28/2024: down $0.41, $87.04.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that the market will be closed on Monday, packers will likely show the complex better interest than normal early in the week as they'll be looking to replenish inventory.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it's been a prosperous day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. No new cash cattle sales have been reported as the bulk of the week's trade is done with. If any more sales are reported this afternoon, they'll likely be steady with the week's trend. December corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 140.33 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even after closing slightly lower Thursday afternoon, the live cattle complex has mildly recovered and is pushing all its contracts higher into Friday's noon hour. Why, you ask? Well at this point it seems as though the market is being pulled between two different realities. On one hand, traders currently seem willing to advance the complex, although they aren't confident enough to break beyond nearby resistance. On the other hand, the other reality points to weakened fed cash cattle prices and the mixed nature of the boxed beef complex right now. Which leaves the live cattle complex trading in a choppy, sideways manner as the bulls and the bears continue to fight in this market. October live cattle are up $1.45 at $179.32, December live cattle are up $1.60 at $178.30, and February live cattle are up $1.55 at $178.95. No new cash cattle sales have been reported yet Friday as it looks like the bulk of the week's trade is essentially complete.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.61 ($309.27) and select up $1.30 ($297.49) with a movement of 66 loads (40.29 loads of choice, 8.82 loads of select, 10.25 loads of trim and 6.15 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Seeing the feeder cattle complex trade higher comes as no surprise right now as the market is nearly a mirror of whatever the live cattle complex does currently. And so, with the green go-ahead from the live cattle market, the feeder cattle complex also is rallying into Friday's noon hour. September feeders are up $2.25 at $241.75, October feeders are up $1.87 at $238.47 and November feeders are up $1.42 at $235.85.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is leaning into Friday's noon hour fully higher as the market sees substantial enough support from traders and is pleased to see midday pork cutout values higher. It's been an exceptional week for the hog complex as the market has been able to advance its position to the highest point traded since May. October lean hogs are up $0.72 at $82.90, December lean hogs are up $0.52 at $73.10, and February lean hogs are up $0.50 at $75.50.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/29/2024 is down $0.58 at $86.47, and the actual index for 8/28/2024 is down $0.41 at $87.04. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Average $76.78, ranging from $75.00 to $78.50 on 1,106 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.73. Pork cutouts total 189.47 loads with 167.93 loads of pork cuts and 21.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.52, $97.41.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hopes For Higher Cash Have Dissipated

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trading steady to lower was not welcomed news for the market. There had been hope for at least steady cash which did take place in the South. However, Northern-dressed cattle traded $2.00 lower than last week. This sets the stage for further cash today as feedlots may be unable to improve on those prices. The packers may be able to buy cattle for deferred delivery which will not improve the outlook for cash prices next week. Today is the last trading day for the August live cattle contract. The October contract carries a significant discount to the August, but that discount may remain until traders feel confident cash will find support. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $1.37 and select down $1.44. The September feeder cattle contract is now the front month. There is little reason for futures to trade higher without seeing support in the live cattle complex.

Hog futures defied the continued weakness of cash pushing to higher highs again on Thursday. The December contract has made higher highs for seven consecutive trading sessions. Cash hogs have traded lower since last week Friday with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a decline of $1.20 on Thursday. The positive news was that weekly export sales were strong at 42,200 MT and cutout values increased by $0.61. The packers are not expected to be aggressive today as they likely have their needs covered and have prepared for the holiday-shortened week. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 37,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The October live cattle contract will take over at the lead month on Monday with a $7.00 discount to the expiring August contract. That discount may be reduced next week.	1)	Cattle futures will be unable to find support due to cash weakness and lower boxed beef prices.
2)	Live cattle futures may form a head & shoulders bottom depending on price action over the next few days.	2)	The holiday-shortened week will require fewer animals to be processed with cattle continuing to be purchased for deferred delivery.
3)	Hog futures continue to be supported by technical trading activity. Traders continue to buy into the market as the trend is your friend.	3)	Hog futures can only move higher technically for a short period without fundamental support. Cash and cutouts have not supported the strength.
4)	Pork demand is good with the packers maintaining a strong slaughter pace. Higher hog weights have had little impact on slaughter volumes.	4)	Hog supplies are plentiful with the packers hot having to bid higher to obtain what they need t

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Press Onward, while Cattle Weaken

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog complex was able to round out the day higher as traders were well supported by the morning's strong export report -- but the cattle complex came up short-handed as cash cattle sales have been reported at steady to $2.00 lower this week. December corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 243.63 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 17,200 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 8% from the previous week, but down 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buys were Japan (5,400 mt), China (3,300 mt) and South Korea (1,900 mt). Pork net sales of 42,200 mt for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (13,800 mt), China (11,500 mt) and South Korea (6,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

A swing and a miss -- Thursday didn't end up being the day that cattlemen hoped it would be as fed cash cattle prices traded steady to $2.00 lower. More than anything traders were reserved heading into Thursday's complex as they desperately wanted to see what the cash cattle market was going to do, and some were even hopeful that prices would trade fully steady. And feedlot managers were able to keep prices steady in the South where live cattle have again been marked at $183, but Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $292 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. From a technical standpoint, it's also disappointing to see the futures market trade lower as the gains seen earlier in the week were encouraging, but at this point, the market's rally early on seems to be dwindling. October live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $177.90, December live cattle closed $1.07 lower at $176.70 and February live cattle closed $1.57 lower at $177.40. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head – 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.37 ($308.66) and select down $1.44 ($296.19) with a movement of 170 loads (126.75 loads of choice, 22.24 loads of select, 6.76 loads of trim and 14.38 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, it's likely that prices will hold steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It wasn't surprising to see the feeder cattle complex close lower as traders are currently refusing to support the feeder market if the live cattle complex is trading lower. September feeders closed $1.80 lower at $239.50, October feeders closed $1.90 lower at $236.67 and November feeders closed $1.97 lower at $234.40. And unfortunately, with the fed cash cattle market trading steady/$2.00 lower this week it's likely that Friday's trade could be pressured as well. The CME feeder cattle index 8/28/2024: up $0.01, $242.64.

LEAN HOGS:

As the only livestock market able to round out the day higher -- the lean hog complex kept its rallying nature through Thursday's end as traders were well supported with the morning's strong export sales report, and were pleased with better consumer demand this afternoon. October lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $82.17, December lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $72.55 and February lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $75.00. The market softened around the noon hour, but quickly regained its footing and was able to pull off closing higher which aligns perfectly with the market's rallying nature this week. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.20 with a weighted average price of $76.55 on 1,710 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.29. Pork cutouts totaled 249.58 loads with 224.16 loads of pork cuts and 25.41 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.61, $95.89. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/27/2024: down $0.37, $87.45.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's safe to assume that the bulk of this week's cash hog trade is done with, and that Friday's market will only see minimal packer interest.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Pump Brakes as They Look for Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as traders are hoping for more fundamental support to surface. The cash market still hasn't traded cattle, but bids are currently being offered in Texas and Nebraska. December corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 449.07 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 17,200 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 8% from the previous week, but down 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buys were Japan (5,400 mt), China (3,300 mt) and South Korea (1,900 mt). Pork net sales of 42,200 mt for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (13,800 mt), China (11,500 mt) and South Korea (6,900 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is stuck tapping its toe, waiting for the cash cattle market to give it the fundamental support it needs... or not. There are currently bids offered in Nebraska at $183 to $184 live and $292 to $294 dressed and a live bid of $182 in Texas. But at this point no cattle have traded. Asking prices are currently noted in the South at $184 to $186 but price levels have not yet been established in the North. October live cattle are down $0.87 at $177.75, December live cattle are down $1.40 at $176.32 and February live cattle are down $1.62 at $177.35.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.94 ($308.23) and select down $1.09 ($296.54) with a movement of 86 loads (57.16 loads of choice, 11.78 loads of select, 5.62 loads of trim and 11.77 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the slight change in attitude of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market is trading fully lower as traders simply aren't willing to advance feeders without the support of the live cattle complex. September feeders are down $1.57 at $239.72, October feeders are down $1.80 at $236.77 and November feeders are down $1.85 at $234.52. At this point, it's not likely the complex will change its demeanor ahead of the day's close as traders seem to be stuck waiting to see what develops in the fed cash cattle market -- which hasn't seen any trade develop just yet.

LEAN HOGS:

As we near the noon hour, the lean hog complex is trading mixed even though this morning's export report was lavish with 42,200 mt reported. And at the day's initial start, the market was trading fully higher, but as time has progressed and traders have taken note of the morning's dismal cash hog sales and slightly weaker pork cutout values at noon -- traders are taking a mixed approach to the market now. October lean hogs are steady at $81.67, December lean hogs are up $0.05 at $71.97 and February lean hogs are up $0.02 at $74.52.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/28/2024 is down $0.41 at $87.04, and the actual index for 8/27/2024 is down $0.37 at $87.45. Hog prices again are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However we can see that only 50 head of hogs have traded this morning and that the market's 5-day rolling average now sits at $80.35. Pork cutouts totaled 114.31 loads with 100.13 loads of pork cuts and 14.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.33, $94.95.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures May Drift

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday is the last trading day for August feeder cattle futures with Friday the final trading day for August live cattle futures. That had some influence on those contracts Wednesday as both showed the greatest losses. Cash cattle have not yet traded this week, reducing the optimism for higher prices. The expectations are now for steady cash at best, which may limit further gains in futures. Boxed beef has been struggling this week, with prices showing significant declines Wednesday. Choice boxed beef declined $4.68 while select declined $2.62. This weakness may hinder the willingness of packers to pay even steady money for cattle.

Hog futures continued to perform well with new highs in December and later contracts. Futures have trended higher despite lower cash this week. Packers may be more aggressive Thursday as they want to finish purchasing for the week and prepare for the extended holiday weekend. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $1.80, which has decreased the weighted average to $77.75. Cutout values declined by $0.77, leaving cutouts substantially lower this week. The upcoming holiday weekend will influence the volume of hogs needed for slaughter next week. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 37,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may hold the recent gains as packers may be willing to purchase cattle at steady money this week to prepare for the holiday-shortened week.	1)	The packers have cattle purchased ahead and boxed beef has declined. This does not provide much hope for steady or higher cash this week.
2)	Feeder cattle are seeing better buying interest at auctions with buyers anticipating live cattle prices will remain strong into next year.	2)	The rally of cattle futures this week may have run out of steam as short-covering can only move the futures for a short time without fundamental support.
3)	Hog futures have increased despite lower cash and cutouts this week. Traders have been active buyers, anticipating higher prices through the end of the year.	3)	Hog weights increased 1.4 pounds last week to an average of 282.5 pounds. This is 8.2 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	If weekly export sales are good, further support may be seen for hog futures. Slaughter will need to remain strong to satisfy demand.	4)	Most of the buying of hogs may be finished for the week with packers remaining less aggressive through the end of the week.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Soften as Traders Wait to See What Cash Cattle Do this Week

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as traders began to become cautious in the live cattle complex as they're yearning to see what the cash cattle market does. But both the lean hogs and feeder cattle markets were able to close mostly higher. December corn is down 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 159.08 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was a dud throughout the day as traders weren't willing to advance the market any more ahead of seeing what cash cattle prices are going to do this week. October live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $178.62, December live cattle closed $1.07 lower at $177.77 and February live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $178.97. It's anyone's guess at this point what the cash cattle market is going to do this week. Feedlot managers are hopeful that they'll be able to trade cattle at steady money, but packers are going to point to the recent dip in boxed beef prices as a reason why prices could continue to trend lower. Still no bids or asking prices have been posted, but packer interest will likely improve on Thursday although trade could still potentially delayed until Friday. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.68 ($307.29) and select down $2.62 ($297.63) with a movement of 124 loads (85.25 loads of choice, 19.86 loads of select, 3.36 loads of trim and 15.90 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1.00 lower. With next week's kill schedule shorted because of Monday's holiday, feedlots are going to have to work extra hard if they're going to secure steady cash prices this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was interesting to watch the feeder cattle complex trade throughout Wednesday's market. Even though the live cattle complex closed lower, the feeder cattle contracts were able to keep their deferred contracts trading higher through the day's end, but the nearby contracts followed more in line with what the live cattle market did. But even though the nearby contracts closed slightly lower, today's weaker note in the soon-to-be-expiring August contract and the September contract weren't major moves -- more so a pause in the market's upward trek as traders are waiting to see what the fed cash cattle market does. As a side note, it was encouraging to see feeder cattle prices trade higher at Dodge City – which indicates that buyers are still in the game despite whatever the board does. September feeders closed $0.62 lower at $241.30, October feeders closed $0.20 higher at $238.57 and November feeders closed $0.10 higher at $236.37. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers under 500 pounds were not well tested, but steers weighing 650 to 800 pounds traded $3.00 higher while steers over 800 pounds sold $5.00 higher. Heifers under 500 pounds were well tested either, but heifers over 500 pounds all traded $3.00 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls traded $3.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 96%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/27/2024: up $0.01, $242.64.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders were fully committed to supporting the lean hog complex as the market didn't receive much fundamental support throughout Wednesday's trade. I'm surprised to see that less than 3,000 head of hogs traded throughout the day -- but with next week's market shortened because of the Labor Day holiday, there's a chance that packers simply don't need to procure as many hogs this week. October lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $81.67, December lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $71.92 and February lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $74.50. The afternoon carcass prices were pulled lower as the belly alone closed $5.49 lower, and the butt closed $3.83 lower. Hog prices closed $1.80 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, equating to a weighted average of $77.75 on 2,615 head. Pork cutouts totaled 238.02 loads with 209.51 loads of pork cuts and 28.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.77, $95.28. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/26/2024: down $0.04, $87.82.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. There's a chance that packers could be essential done buy this week as they prepare for a short schedule next week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Continue to Trade Higher While Cattle Stalemate

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Wednesday's noon hour as the lean hog market continues to advance thanks to ample consumer support and trade interest. The cattle sector is changing its higher tune to a more cautious demeanor as traders are wanting to see what develops in this week's cash market. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $3.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 228.10 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has deadlocked its higher trend as traders aren't willing to advance the market any more until fundamental support surfaces. And as of this point, no developments have surfaced in the cash sector. Bids and asking prices both remain unestablished as feedlot managers are hoping if they waited the week out, steady prices would be within their reach. October live cattle are down $0.30 at $179.07, December live cattle are down $0.67 at $178.17 and February live cattle are down $0.45 at $179.05. Packer interest could improve throughout the day, but at this point it looks like trade will be delayed until at least Thursday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.02 ($309.95) an select down $0.56 ($299.69) with a movement of 78 loads (52.47 loads of choice, 13.58 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 12.18 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is mixed heading into Wednesday's noon hour as the live cattle market isn't currently lending any support and traders aren't feeling confident enough about the market to advance fully without the live cattle market's go-ahead. September feeders are down $0.52 at $241.40, October feeders are up $0.32 at $238.70 and November feeders are up $0.30 at $236.57. At this point in time, the market isn't necessarily jumping ship and reverting back to lower territory. Instead the market is trading mildly lower as the feeder cattle complex is trying to patiently wait for support to surface again.

LEAN HOGS:

It's another rallying day for the lean hog complex as the market continues to see ample support from traders and remains well supported from stronger cutouts. October lean hogs are up $0.17 at $82.27, December lean hogs are up $0.40 at $72.05 and February lean hogs are up $0.42 at $74.62. It is odd to see that zero hogs have traded Wednesday morning. I expect we will see some trade develop later Wednesday afternoon; but at this point it's looking like the day's volume will be thin.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/27/2024 is down $0.04 at $87.82, and the actual index for 8/26/2024 is down $0.04 at $87.82. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report as zero hogs have traded/been reported this morning. Pork cutouts totaled 132.92 loads with 115.49 loads of pork cuts and 17.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.44, $96.49.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Higher Cattle Futures Leave Feedlots Hopeful

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The buying interest in cattle futures may not come from expectations for cash to trade higher but is supported by technical trading. The gain in futures over the past two days may provide some confidence to feedlots to hold out until later in the week, hoping that the higher board prices may turn the packers more aggressive with their purchases. However, they may not need to be aggressive as they have a significant amount of cattle purchased for deferred delivery. Technical traders see some indicators that have triggered some buying interest for the short term which may run its course if not supported fundamentally. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Tuesday with choice down $3.98 and select up $0.06. Thursday is the last trading day for August feeder cattle with Friday the last trading day for August live cattle.

Hog futures enjoyed continued strength with the October contract reducing the discount it held to cash. The October contract has retraced about 65% of the loss sustained from the high in early April to the low in July moving it back to the highest level since June 3rd. Technical traders might have a goal of around $85.00 in mind which would be the projection of the head and shoulders bottom. The market is struggling fundamentally as the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $0.62 on good volume. Pork cutouts were supportive, regaining $1.07 of the large losses of Monday. The packers may be a bit more aggressive today as they want to purchase most of what they need for the week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	October live cattle futures hold a nearly $6.00 discount to the August contract which goes off the board on Friday. The contract may narrow that discount if cash stabilizes.	1)	Packers have purchased a significant amount of cattle for deferred delivery, which may limit their need to be aggressive this week. Next week is a holiday week which will disrupt the slaughter schedule.
2)	Higher cattle futures could provide confidence to feedlots to hold for at least steady cash this week.	2)	Short-covering generally lasts three days and this is day three. The negative implications of the Cattle on Feed report may limit further gains.
3)	Hog futures have shown impressive strength over the past few weeks as fund traders have turned net buyers in the market.	3)	Hog futures are overbought and may correct after the strong of the past few weeks.
4)	The hog slaughter pace continues to run stronger than last year as demand has been holding. Higher hog weights have not had much impact.	4)	The packers do not seem to be as aggressive this week as they generally are. Higher cash may be difficult to ahead of the holiday weekend.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Push Livestock Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another prosperous day for the livestock sector as all three of the markets closed higher. So long as traders continue to support the market with vigor, there's a chance that the cash cattle market could trade steady later this week. December corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 9.98 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex powered all the way through Tuesdays' end and closed anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher by day's closing bell. It was exciting to see the complex recover as much position as it did throughout the day as every day that the market can trade higher, there's more reassurance and confidence built back into the marketplace. The spot October contract didn't reach the market's 100-day moving average of $180.95, which will remain a critical barrier to monitor moving forward. October live cattle closed $2.42 higher at $179.40, December live cattle closed $2.47 higher at $178.85 and February live cattle closed $2.17 higher at $179.50. Still no cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and even though some asking prices could be posted on Wednesday, it's mostly likely that feedlot managers will elect to wait and trade cattle until later in the week as they're hoping to hold the market steady this week. 

Tuesdays' slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head – 3,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $3.93 ($311.97) and select up $0.06 ($300.25) with a movement of 167 loads (105.62 loads of choice, 30.88 loads of select, 8.13 loads of trim and 22.54 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that the board has continued to trade higher, there's a chance that the cash complex could trade higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the added support of better trader interest and the fact that the live cattle contracts were trading higher all throughout the day – the feeder cattle complex didn't struggle whatsoever to trade higher through Tuesday's market. The nearby contracts closed mildly higher, but it was the market's deferred contracts that saw gains over $1.00 higher. And so long as the live cattle complex continues to trade higher – feeders should be able to follow in their shadow. September feeders closed $0.57 higher at $241.92, October feeders closed $0.90 higher at $238.37 and November feeders closed $1.55 higher at $236.27. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week steers traded steady to $2.00 lower and heifers traded unevenly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 76%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/26/2024: down $0.20, $242.63.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex continues to charge onward as the market is currently well supported by stronger pork demand and ample trader interest. This afternoon the carcass price was able to round out the day higher as the ham contributed a substantial $3.08 jump, and the belly closed $1.68 higher. The spot October contract could run into a little technical resistance around $83.00, but really the market is free and clear from most resistance until the $88.00 threshold. October lean hogs closed $1.67 higher at $82.07, December lean hogs closed $0.95 higher at $71.65 and February lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $74.20. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.62 with a weighted average price of $79.55 on 7,267 head. Pork cutouts totaled 300.59 loads with 253.79 loads of pork cuts and 46.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.07, $96.05. The CME lean hog index 8/22/2024: down $0.61, $88.22.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Packers were more aggressive in Tuesday's market, but with pork cutout values still seeing ample support, they'll likely aggressively support the market for at least another day if not more.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Continue to Push Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is doing rather well as we approach Tuesday's noon hour with all three markets trading higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's unlikely any will ahead of Wednesday. December corn is up 6 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 84.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's invigorating to see the live cattle complex continuing to trade higher, especially given the market is continuing to inch closer and closer to its 100-day moving average. If traders elect to push the complex above that moving average, it would show substantial technical support and could potentially mean traders are finding more comfort in the market despite the fact that presidential and economic pressures loom. October live cattle are up $2.27 at $179.25, December live cattle are up $2.20 at $178.57 and February live cattle are up $2.00 at $179.32. Still no action has developed in the cash cattle complex and won't likely until sometime after Wednesday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.38 ($316.28) and select up $3.48 ($303.67) with a movement of 77 loads (47.28 loads of choice, 14.29 loads of select, 7.04 loads of trim and 8.21 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle complex trading notably higher, the feeder cattle market hasn't struggled whatsoever to keep its higher trend either. September feeders are up $1.10 at $242.45, October feeders are up $1.75 at $239.22 and November feeders are up $2.07 at $236.82. So long as the live cattle complex continues to trade in a higher manner, the feeder cattle market shouldn't struggle as traders are lending the market all the support it needs. Not to mention, even though feeder cattle prices trended mostly lower last week, on Monday afternoon the CME Feeder Cattle Index did close $1.13 higher, indicating buyers are still aggressively seeking calves.

LEAN HOGS:

After merely coasting through Monday, the lean hog market is back to rallying. October lean hogs are up $1.92 at $82.32, December lean hogs are up $1.07 at $71.77 and February lean hogs are up $0.77 at $74.37. If the market continues to rally as aggressively as it has over the last week, the spot October contract could run into some resistance pressure around $72.50 -- which the market hasn't traded above since the middle of June.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/26/2024 is down $0.04 at $87.82, and the actual index for 8/23/2024 is down $0.36 at $87.86. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $80.23, ranging from $79.00 to $81.00 on 1,431 head and a five-day rolling average of $81.51. Pork cutouts total 170.42 loads with 148.99 loads of pork cuts and 21.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.03, $95.01.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Futures as Traders Wait for Cash

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures rejected the lower opening and traded higher the rest of the day. Traders had positioned themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report and traded relative to the perception for the week. Cash is expected to be lower as the packers may not be aggressive. They purchased quite a few cattle for deferred delivery last week leaving them less aggressive this week. Feedlots may decide to sell rather than hold for higher prices that may not materialize. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.44 and select down $0.27. The weakness of boxed beef does not help the potential for steady or higher cash this week. Feeder cattle at auctions have been bringing lower prices in response to the weakness on the board. This trend may continue in the near term.

Hog futures tried to close in positive territory but the uncertainty over cash held the market back. Cash was not reported at midday leaving traders uncertain. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.59. Weakness was expected which kept some pressure on the market. However, the real concern is the fall of cutouts with the afternoon print showing a loss of $4.07. When there is a large loss in cutouts on Monday, prices usually rebound on Tuesday negating most of the losses. Futures did make new highs before slipping back keeping the uptrend intact.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures closed higher despite the negative Cattle on Feed report. The market had it already factored in possibly finding further support today.	1)	Cash is expected to be lower again this week as feedlots need to move cattle and may not hold out for another week. Holding out for higher cash has only resulted in selling at lower prices.
2)	Traders may support cattle futures as they wait for cash to trade this week. After all, cash had declined the past 3 weeks and may be at a bottom.	2)	The packers purchased quite a few cattle for deferred delivery last week. that may leave them less aggressive this week or allow them to continue to buy cattle with time.
3)	Hog futures closed lower but made new highs earlier in the day keeping the uptrend intact. This should keep buyers aggressive as they trade with the trend.	3)	Lower cash and the large decline of pork cutouts on Monday may keep pressure on the market today.
4)	Packers are expected to be more aggressive in the cash market today as they need to purchase to supply the higher slaughter pace. Cutout prices are expected to rebound.	4)	Even though the hog slaughter pace remains stronger than a year ago, market-ready hogs remain plentiful. The packers do not need to be aggressive.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Remain Well Supported

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a pleasantly surprising day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets closed higher thanks to ample trader support. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex closed mostly lower as traders want to see what the week's pork demand amounts to. December corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 65.44 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle closed higher as the market was well supported by traders all through Monday's complex. October live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $176.97, December live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $176.37 and February live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $177.32. It will be interesting to see how the market performs later throughout the week as many are hoping that last week's lower trend is going to stand as a bottom for the complex's current move. The cash cattle complex will likely trade somewhat lower again this week as packers have been able to buy cattle with time and build up inventory -- not to mention, next week's kill schedule will be reduced for the Labor Day holiday. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288 to $295, but mostly at $293, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $183, which is $2.00 lower than the prior week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 54,695 head. Of that, 58% (31,490 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 42% (23,205 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.44 ($315.90) and select down $0.27 ($300.19) with a movement of 115 loads (75.30 loads of choice, 19.07 loads of select, 7.84 loads of trim and 12.59 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been able to buy cattle with time, it's likely that this week's market will again trade lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was encouraging to see the feeder cattle complex trade higher through Monday's market especially given that today was the first chance traders had to react to Friday's bearish Cattle on Feed report. September feeders closed $2.77 higher at $241.35, October feeders closed $3.10 higher at $237.47 and November feeders closed $3.12 higher at $234.72. Come Tuesday it's likely that traders will be pressed on their decision to advance the market and could face some technical opposition. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeder steers under 675 pounds sold $9.00 to $18.00 lower with the heavier weights trading $2.00 to $8.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 650 pounds sold $8.00 to $12.00 lower with the heavier weights trading $2.00 to $6.00 softer. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/23/2024: up $1.13, $242.83.

LEAN HOGS:

Try as it might, the lean hog complex ran out of gusto ahead of Monday's close. After rallying late last week, the complex plateaued before the day's end as traders were somewhat disappointed with the day's pork demand and are going to need to see better consumer interest before they'll likely advance the complex much more. October lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $80.40, December lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $70.70 and February lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $73.60. The afternoon cutout price closed notably lower as the belly fell $6.55 lower and the loin closed $3.78 lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.59 with a weighted average price of $80.17 on 3,390 head. Pork cutouts total 260.18 loads with 228.91 loads of pork cuts and 31.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.07, $94.98. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 484,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/22/2024: down $0.61, $88.22.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: STEADY. Packers will likely show moderate demand in Tuesday's cash market as they'll need to secure some inventory, but at the same time, it's not likely that they'll buy aggressively as they're going to be watching demand closely and Monday's carcass price closed lower.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's refreshing to see the cattle complex off to a stronger start early in the week. I expected to find the cattle complex lower at Monday's start following Friday's bearish Cattle on Feed report. But, obviously, traders had other plans. December corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 71.30 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though Friday's Cattle on Feed report was found to be slightly bearish, the live cattle complex is trading fully higher into Monday's noon hour. October live cattle are up $1.25 at $177.00, December live cattle are up $1.07 at $176.27 and February live cattle are up $1.00 at $177.47. The complex was trading even higher earlier this morning, but as the noon hour approaches, traders have eased their upward push. The complex is still trading far below the market's 100-day moving average, so there's ample technical room for the market to trade higher if traders desire to do so.

Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288 to $295, but mostly at $293, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $183, which is $2.00 lower than the prior week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 54,695 head. Of that, 58% (31,490 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 42% (23,205 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.36 ($316.98) and select down $1.45 ($299.01) with a movement of 63 loads (49.47 loads of choice, 9.50 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.04 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

I'll be honest, I wasn't expecting to see the feeder cattle complex trading higher Monday morning following last week's slightly bearish Cattle on Feed report. But regardless of last week's report, the complex is sporting a fairly substantial rally Monday morning as the nearby contracts are up anywhere between $2.00 to $3.00 higher. September feeders are up $2.90 at $241.47, October feeders are up $3.17 at $237.55 and November feeders are up $2.80 at $234.40. As the August contract expires later this week and the market settles in the September contract, it will be interesting to see what traders do with the nearby resistance at $245.00. There are really two outcomes that are likely. They will either respect the resistance and elect to merely chop the complex sideways as external economic pressures remain prevalent in the market; or they'll muster up enough support and begin to crawl out of the hole that the complex recently dug. Time will tell.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is mixed as traders are undecisive in their moves Monday morning. At the day's start, traders were fully willing to advance the complex and continue the upward trek of late last week. But as the noon hour approached, trades aren't as committed to continuing with last week's trend as all of the contracts are lower except for the December 2024 contract. It's not helping matters either that pork cutout values are unavailable and that so few hogs have been traded Monday morning that prices can't even be published because of confidentiality clauses. October lean hogs are down $0.30 at $80.25, December lean hogs are up $0.05 at $70.80 and February lean hogs are down $0.10 at $73.72.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/23/2024 is down $0.36 at $87.86, and the actual index for 8/22/2024 is down $0.61 at $88.22. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Moring Hog report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 341 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $82.95. Pork cutouts values are unavailable because of packer submissions issues.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Expected to Open Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures closed lower for the week Friday as further cash weakness pressured the market. The outlook for this week has not changed with the potential for lower cash again unless boxed beef finds solid support and cattle futures uncover buying interest. The packers have been able to manage slaughter to their favor, which has improved their margins but backed up cattle in the country. The Cattle on Feed report did not provide much to change the current market. On feed as of Aug. 1 was 100.3% compared to the average estimate of 100.0%. Placements in July 1.702 million head or 105.8% compared to a year ago and the average estimate of 104.0%. Marketed in July was 107.7% with the average estimate at 108.2%. Placements were slightly above the range of estimates while marketings were slightly below. This sets the potential for a lower opening due to the bearish implications of the report. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday with choice up $1.35 and select down $1.57. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds selling 2,813 live cattle futures reducing their net long positions to 45,265 contracts. They were sellers of 956 feeder cattle contracts increasing their net-short position to 4,445.

Hog futures had a strong week with the October contract gaining $5.47, reducing the discount it held to cash. The packers were more aggressive during the week than anticipated. Cutouts showed strong gains to end the week with values up $2.62. This was on top of the $1.88 gain in cutouts seen Thursday. The limiting factor today might be the weakness of cash with the National Direct Afternoon Hog report down $2.60 and the possibility packers will not be aggressive Monday. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds added 11,537 futures contracts, bringing them to a net long of 9,835 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report may have already been factored in, providing stability to the cattle complex.	1)	July placements above trade expectations and marketings below expectations may keep pressure on cattle futures.
2)	Cattle futures are oversold and may find some technical support at these levels.	2)	Cash cattle may see further declines this week as packers purchase cattle ahead and feedlots need to move cattle.
3)	Strong pork cutouts during the last half of the week may indicate continued strong demand. The packers may need to remain aggressive with slaughter.	3)	Hog futures need to hold the gains of last week or traders could liquidate, pushing prices back down into the sideways trading range.
4)	Fund traders are increasing their long positions with the idea that higher hog prices are yet to come.	4)	Lower cash hogs to begin the week may limit the upside price potential as packers wait to see the level of weekend demand.

Friday Closing Livestock Makret Update - Cattle Round Out the Week Mixed, While Hogs Continue to Trend Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as there was hope early on that the announcement from Chairman Powell that interest rates could potentially be lowered in September would help the commodity markets' moral, which it did in the lean hog and feeder cattle markets, but the live cattle complex was more worried about the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report. December corn is down 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 462.30 points.

From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle down $0.22, October live cattle down $2.60; August feeder cattle down $0.20, September feeder cattle down $0.92; October lean hogs up $5.47, December lean hogs up $3.53; September corn down $0.03, December corn down $0.02.

Friday's Cold Storage Report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 3% from the previous month and down 3% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down slightly from the previous month and down 1% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 5% from the previous month and down 4% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 30% from last month and down 17% from last year.

LIVE CATTLE:

There was some hope that the hint of cheaper interest rates could help the live cattle complex close higher Friday afternoon, but all in all the market grew skeptical about the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report and ended up closing mostly lower. October live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $175.70, December live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $175.20 and February live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $176.47. The cash cattle market didn't see much action through Friday's trade as largely the week's business was done earlier in the week. Throughout the week Southern live cattle were marked at mostly $183 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $293 which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 113,000 head – 5,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 11,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 608,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 18,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.35 ($317.34) and select down $1.57 ($300.46) with a movement of 126 load (87.01 loads of choice, 14.75 loads of select, 8.67 loads of trim and 15.50 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With the board's weakness and continued pressure, cash prices will likely trend lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with a Cattle on Feed report set to be released after the day's closing bell, traders continued to support the nearby feeder cattle complex through Friday's end as they found it promising that Chairman Powell shared in a statement Friday morning that interest rates could be lowered in their September meeting. 

August feeder cattle closed $0.60 higher at $242.57, September feeder cattle closed $0.37 higher at $238.57 and October feeder cattle closed $0.12 higher at $234.37. This afternoon's Cattle on Feed report will likely be found as bearish to traders Monday morning as placements came in 6% higher than a year ago.

The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers sold $6.00 to $11.00 lower, and steer calves sold $18.00 to $20.00 lower. Heifers traded $4.00 to $9.00 back. Slaughter cows and bulls sold $1.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/22/2024: down $0.97, $241.70.

LEAN HOGS:

It was a stellar day for the lean hog complex as the market was able to keep with its upward trend through Friday's closing bell. October lean hogs closed $0.92 higher at $80.55, December lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $70.75 and February lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $73.82. What is especially promising about the market's performance throughout the day was that the spot October contract was able to rally upon what Thursday's market accomplished. And with the complex now having rallied to the point where the market has broken outside of its previous sideways trading range, it's anyone's guess at this point how high the complex could go. Demand will likely be the biggest determining factor of the market's current rally. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report, down $2.60 with a weighted average price of $80.76. Pork cutouts totaled 278.10 loads with 236.74 loads of pork cuts and 41.37 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.62, $99.05. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 479,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected at 96,000 head. The CME lean hog index 8/21/2024: down $0.38, $88.83.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely show much interest in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Rallies on Powell's Prediction Interest Rates Could be Lowered in September

GENERAL COMMENT:

Early Friday morning Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell shared that he expects interest rates to be lowered in the September market committee meeting which has helped change the overall moral in the livestock complex. 

December corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 230.56 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is reacting positively to the announcement shared by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, as not only would cattlemen benefit from cheaper interest rates, but the economic sector is rallying on news as well which helps the greater commodity complex. August live cattle are down $0.07 at $182.47, October live cattle are up $0.17 at $176.05 and December live cattle are up $0.30 at $175.82. The market won't likely trade much more aggressively than what it currently is as there's still another hurdle to jump ahead of the week's end -- the monthly Cattle on Feed report. And with placements expected to be greater than a year ago, the report isn't expected to be bullish. No new cash cattle sales have developed at this point an overall it's looking like the week's trade is essentially done with. Thus far throughout the week Southern live cattle have been marked at mostly $183, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $293, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.37 ($318.36) and select up $0.35 ($302.38) with a movement of 79 loads (55.43 loads of choice, 9.21 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.23 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with placements expected to be higher later this afternoon on the day's Cattle on Feed report the feeder cattle complex is elated to hear that the market could see cheaper interest rates after the September committee meeting. It's been a rough week for the feeder cattle complex, but the market's late week support is warmly welcomed. August feeders are up $0.62 at $242.60, September feeders are up $1.17 at $239.37 and October feeders are up $1.20 at $235.45.

LEAN HOGS:

It's rather impressive to see the lean hog complex keeping with its upward trek given that the market broke aggressively out of its sideways trading range Thursday afternoon. But at this point traders are seeing enough fundamental (higher cutout values) and ample technical support which is helping traders keep with their upward trend. October lean hogs are up $0.32 at $79.95, December lean hogs are up $0.22 at $70.50 and February lean hogs are up $0.27 at $73.60.

The projected lean hog index for 8/22/2024 is down $0.61 at $88.22 and the actual index for 8/21/2024 is down $0.38 at $88.83. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.92 with a weighted average price of $80.44, ranging from $72.00 to $82.00 on 1,775 head and a five-day rolling average of $82.95. Pork cutouts total 206.37 loads with 175.11 loads of pork cuts and 31.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.86, $99.29.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look Ahead to Cattle On Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Once the cash cattle trade price level was known for the week, traders adjusted futures accordingly Thursday. Futures had been overdone to the downside and corrected to move closer to cash. Traders then turned their attention to the upcoming Cattle on Feed report due Friday afternoon. Traders will limit their exposure before the report, which may result in mixed trading activity. The Cattle on Feed report is estimated to show on-feed numbers on Aug. 1 at 100% of a year ago with the range of estimates from 99.8% to 100.2%. July placements are estimated at 104% with a range of 101.9% to 105.6%. Marketings are estimated at 108.2% with a range of 107.8% to 109.0%. The marketing number seems high, but there were two extra marketing days than in July 2023. Cash cattle trade for the week showed Southern live cattle $2.00 lower and Northern dressed cattle $5.00 lower. Boxed beef was higher Thursday with choice up $0.78 and select up $0.95.

Hog futures had a banner Thursday, defying the lower cash and cutouts influence of Wednesday and pork export sales at a marketing year low totaling 19,300 metric tons (mt). Traders seemed to focus on reducing the October discount to cash and pushing futures above technical resistance and the highest close since June 4. Packers generally are not aggressive on Thursdays, but the National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.30. Support also stemmed from cutouts gaining $1.88. Trader exuberance may temper Friday ahead of the weekend.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may see further short-covering ahead of the Cattle on Feed report and the weekend.	1)	The strength of cattle futures may have resulted from short-covering ahead of the Cattle on Feed report and not a fundamental change.
2)	Some technical indicators suggest cattle futures may swing higher in the near term. The weakness of cash may have run its course.	2)	Feedlots have not benefited from holding for higher cash over the past three weeks. They may be willing to sell aggressively and at lower prices again next week.
3)	October hog futures breaking out to the upside suggests follow-through buying may continue as futures reduce the discount to cash.	3)	Hog market fundamentals do not suggest solid support has been established. Demand needs to remain consistent. Marketing year low weekly export sales do not indicate demand support.
4)	Higher cash and cutouts Thursday should support futures as traders may be more optimistic over next week's prices.	4)	Hog futures may have limited upside potential in deferred contracts as traders may hold a discount unless proven otherwise.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Finally Scored a Winning Close

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a positive day for the livestock complex as the market was well supported by traders which helped all three markets close fully higher. Heading into Friday's market, the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report will be the biggest ticket item for the day. December corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 177.71 points.

Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 15,900 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were down 44% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (5,100 mt), South Korea (4,300 mt) and China (2,200 mt). Pork net sales of 19,300 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 7% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), Canada (3,100 mt) and Japan (3,000 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was well supported throughout the day and was thankfully able to round out Thursday's market slightly higher. Yes, boxed beef prices did close higher, but more than anything the market was able to round out the day higher thanks to trader interest and support. August live cattle closed $1.32 higher at $182.55, October live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $175.90 and December live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $175.52. The cash cattle complex sold a few more head, but all in all it's looking like the bulk of this week's trade is done with. Thus far throughout the week Southern live cattle have been marked at mostly $183, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $293, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.78 ($315.99) and select up $0.95 ($302.03) with a movement of 125 loads (84.61 loads of choice, 19.64 loads of select, 5.69 loads of trim and 15.43 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. If any more sales develop ahead of the week's end, it's likely that they will trend steady with the week's weighted average.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex finally found some positive technical footing as the market was able to trend confidently higher all throughout Thursday's trade. With the slight help of higher boxed beef prices, and more than anything, the willingness from traders to dip their toes back in the market, the feeder cattle complex scored a higher close by the day's end. August feeders closed $2.72 higher at $241.97, September feeders closed $2.52 higher at $238.20 and October feeders closed $2.57 higher at $234.25. Even though Thursday's market was fruitful for the complex -- I'm skeptical if Friday's market will see the same level of support as traders will likely brace themselves ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 600 975 pounds traded $2.00 to $5.00 lower, but thin fleshed steers sold steady. There weren't enough steers in the 400-to-600-pound range to develop an accurate test, but a higher tone was noted. Slaughter cows traded $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 91%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/21/2024: down $1.06, $242.67.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had a thrilling day as the spot October contract broke out of its sideways trading range thanks to the added support of traders and better pork demand. October lean hogs closed $3.47 higher at $79.62, December lean hogs closed $2.40 higher at $70.27 and February lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $73.35. Today's close is the highest the October contract has traded since early June. The afternoon carcass price was mainly supported by the belly's $4.71 gain, but also by the ham's $4.01 jump and the butt's $3.43 gain. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.30 with a weighted average price of $83.36 on 1,254 head. Pork cutouts totaled 305.13 loads with 267.85 loads of pork cuts and 37.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.88, $96.43. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 482,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/20/2024: down $0.50, $89.21.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have fulfilled the bulk of their cash needs this week and that Friday's market won't see much interest.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Trader Support Leads Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENT:

After a stressful couple of days for the livestock complex, some relief finally came as all three of the markets are trading higher into Thursday's noon hour. There's a single bid currently offered in the cash market in Nebraska; but at this point it's looking like the bulk of the week's business is done. December corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 76.40 points.

Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 15,900 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were down 44% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (5,100 mt), South Korea (4,300 mt) and China (2,200 mt). Pork net sales of 19,300 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year low -- were down 7% from the previous week and 34% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), Canada (3,100 mt) and Japan (3,000 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Besides a little added support from higher boxed beef prices, the market can't put its finger on why the complex is trading higher as fed cash cattle prices are lower this week and ultimately traders willingness to jump back into the game and support the complex seems to be the biggest change factor today. August live cattle are up $1.20 at $182.42, October live cattle are up $0.97 at $175.62 and December live cattle are up $0.97 at $175.25. A sole bid of $184 is currently being offered in Nebraska, but no feedlots have jumped at that offer. A few more clean-up sales here and there are likely, but all in all it's looking like the bulk of the week's trade could be done. Thus far throughout the week Southern live cattle have been marked at mostly $183, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $293, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.35 ($316.56) and select up $1.69 ($302.77) with a movement of 62 loads (34.03 loads of choice, 13.31 loads of select, 5.54 loads of trim and 8.85 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

At last, the feeder cattle complex is seeing some substantial trader support following the brutal pressure endured earlier in the week. August feeders are up $2.72 at $241.97, September feeders are up $2.70 at $238.37 and October feeders are up $2.75 at $234.42. Thankfully, the live cattle complex is also trading higher, which is giving the feeder cattle market the go ahead to confidently trade higher into the day's noon hour.

LEAN HOGS:

Traders don't seem give to two hoots about the morning's export report, which shared a marketing year low of only 19,300 metric tons (mt) being reported. But even so, the lean hog complex is rocking and rolling into Thursday's noon hour fully higher. October lean hogs are up $2.05 at $78.20, December lean hogs are up $1.70 at $69.57 and February lean hogs are up $1.30 at $72.85. It is helpful that both cash prices and pork cutout values are higher, but on top of that, traders seem invested and fully on board with advancing the complex regardless of immediate market fundamentals.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/21/2024 is down $0.38 at $88.83, and the actual index for 8/20/2024 is down $0.50 at $89.21. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.21 with a weighted average price of $83.36, ranging from $81.00 to $84.50 on 1,254 head and five-day rolling average of $83.45. Pork cutouts total 143.93 loads with 129.00 loads of pork cuts and 14.93 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.18, $96.73.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Lower Cash Trade May Limit Upside Potential

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle struggled into the close Wednesday, but did rebound from the lows established during the day. The cash cattle trade was more active than usual for a Wednesday with trade taking place at lower prices. Southern live cattle traded at $2.00 lower than last week with Northern dressed at $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Feedlots are taking what they can get before prices erode further. Boxed beef prices were slightly higher with choice up $0.13 and select up $0.04. The Cattle on Feed report will be released Friday The average trade estimates are for on-feed numbers on Aug. 1 at 100% of a year ago. Placements in July are estimated at 104%. Marketings are estimated at 108.2%. The marketing number seems high, but there were two extra marketing days than in July 2023.

Hog futures showed minor spread trading activity as there was little for traders to get excited about. The hope for higher cash and cutouts faded as Wednesday progressed. Futures tried to push higher but ran out of steam, taking contracts off their highs. The packers seem to be done buying for the week as the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a decline of $1.20. Cutout values fell $2.99, which may add some bearishness to the market Thursday. The packers are not expected to be aggressive the rest of the week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cash cattle trade has been established, which may relieve some of the selling pressure. Futures hold a discount to cash.	1)	Cattle futures are struggling and without support from cash, prices could erode further. Cattle weights remain high allowing for less cattle to be purchased to get the required tonnage.
2)	There may be some short-coving ahead of the Cattle on Feed report released after the close Friday. Traders may want to limit their exposure before the report.	2)	Feedlots are willing to move cattle and may do the same next week as holding for higher prices has only resulted in lower prices. They may sell to avoid further price declines.
3)	Hog futures hold a substantial discount to cash and may slowly move higher to narrow the gap.	3)	Packers may be done buying for the week, resulting in less-aggressive buying and lower prices.
4)	A good weekly export sales number is expected, which may provide support under the market.	4)	Hog weights increased this week up by 0.1 pounds to an average of 281.1 pounds compared to 278.3 pounds a year ago.