GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the lean hog complex is slightly higher but the cattle complex is trading in a reserved manner as traders are cautious about supporting the market any more ahead of seeing what the cash cattle market accomplishes. No bids have surfaced yet. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 509.26 points.
Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 28,100 metric tons (mt) for 2024 -- a marketing year high -- were up noticeably from the previous week and up 99% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (11,400 mt), Japan (6,300 mt) and China (4,400 mt). Pork net sales of 20,900 mt -- a marketing year low -- were down 40% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (8,300 mt), Mexico (3,300 mt) and South Korea (1,900 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Traders seem to be impatiently tapping their feet as they wait for the cash cattle market to trade. One could logically think traders would find it supportive that beef exports marked a marketing year high Thursday morning; but the only thing that seems to matter is what the cash cattle market is going to do as traders currently have ample other fundamental supportive factors with exports and stronger midday boxed beef prices. October live cattle are down $0.47 at $181.65, December live cattle are down $0.12 at $181.50 and February live cattle are up $0.05 at $182.30. Asking prices are noted in the South at $187 to $188 but remain unestablished still in the North. Packer inquiry should improve Thursday afternoon, but trade could be delayed until Friday. At this point, it's looking like feedlots will at least be able to hold the market steady.
Boxed beef prices higher: choice up $2.09 ($316.97) and select up $0.83 ($301.33) with a movement of 72 loads (51.19 loads of choice, 8.10 loads of select, 6.64 loads of trim and 6.50 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the recent pullback in the live cattle complex, feeder cattle contracts have regressed as well, despite demand in the countryside remaining incredibly strong. August feeders are down $0.95 at $246.95, September feeders are down $0.42 at $243.97 and October feeders are down $1.05 at $241.00. If the cash cattle market trades steady to somewhat higher, and that positively influences the live cattle contracts, then it's likely feeders will turn higher again this week. But until the live cattle contracts trade higher, feeders will likely remain reserved and cautious.
LEAN HOGS:
Even though Thursday morning's export report noted a marketing-year low for pork sales, the lean hog complex is finding support in the morning's higher pork cutout value. What's interesting about seeing the carcass price jump over $4.00 is that it wasn't driven by one single cut, as the belly gained $12.64, but the butt jumped $4.87 higher, the loin gained $4.57 and the ham jumped $3.38 higher from Wednesday's prices. As long as demand continues to shine through the afternoon report, the hog complex should not have an issue keeping with its higher trend.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/14/2024 is up $0.02 at $90.20, and the actual index for 8/13/2024 is down $0.16 at $90.18. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.59 with a weighted average price of $85.11, ranging from $80.00 to $86.50 on 2,588 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.71. Pork cutouts total 185.34 loads with 168.61 loads of pork cuts and 16.74 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.30, $103.61.
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