GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's refreshing to see the cattle complex off to a stronger start early in the week. I expected to find the cattle complex lower at Monday's start following Friday's bearish Cattle on Feed report. But, obviously, traders had other plans. December corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 71.30 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Even though Friday's Cattle on Feed report was found to be slightly bearish, the live cattle complex is trading fully higher into Monday's noon hour. October live cattle are up $1.25 at $177.00, December live cattle are up $1.07 at $176.27 and February live cattle are up $1.00 at $177.47. The complex was trading even higher earlier this morning, but as the noon hour approaches, traders have eased their upward push. The complex is still trading far below the market's 100-day moving average, so there's ample technical room for the market to trade higher if traders desire to do so.
Last week, Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $288 to $295, but mostly at $293, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $183, which is $2.00 lower than the prior week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 54,695 head. Of that, 58% (31,490 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 42% (23,205 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.36 ($316.98) and select down $1.45 ($299.01) with a movement of 63 loads (49.47 loads of choice, 9.50 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.04 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
I'll be honest, I wasn't expecting to see the feeder cattle complex trading higher Monday morning following last week's slightly bearish Cattle on Feed report. But regardless of last week's report, the complex is sporting a fairly substantial rally Monday morning as the nearby contracts are up anywhere between $2.00 to $3.00 higher. September feeders are up $2.90 at $241.47, October feeders are up $3.17 at $237.55 and November feeders are up $2.80 at $234.40. As the August contract expires later this week and the market settles in the September contract, it will be interesting to see what traders do with the nearby resistance at $245.00. There are really two outcomes that are likely. They will either respect the resistance and elect to merely chop the complex sideways as external economic pressures remain prevalent in the market; or they'll muster up enough support and begin to crawl out of the hole that the complex recently dug. Time will tell.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is mixed as traders are undecisive in their moves Monday morning. At the day's start, traders were fully willing to advance the complex and continue the upward trek of late last week. But as the noon hour approached, trades aren't as committed to continuing with last week's trend as all of the contracts are lower except for the December 2024 contract. It's not helping matters either that pork cutout values are unavailable and that so few hogs have been traded Monday morning that prices can't even be published because of confidentiality clauses. October lean hogs are down $0.30 at $80.25, December lean hogs are up $0.05 at $70.80 and February lean hogs are down $0.10 at $73.72.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/23/2024 is down $0.36 at $87.86, and the actual index for 8/22/2024 is down $0.61 at $88.22. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Moring Hog report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 341 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $82.95. Pork cutouts values are unavailable because of packer submissions issues.
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