GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was another mixed day for the livestock complex as both the live cattle and lean hog markets traded higher, but the feeder cattle complex wasn't met with the same trader interest. Both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets will likely be pressured to support Monday's higher close right away at Tuesday's open. December corn is up 7 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $8.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 236.77 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Though it was surprising, the live cattle complex was able to sustain its higher tone through Monday's end. August live cattle closed steady at $182.80, October live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $179.02 and December live cattle closed $0.25 higher at $178.37. Following last week's lower trend, the market was given an opportunity to trade higher through Monday's market as traders had worked the complex away from resistance levels. It's disappointing to see the market back below its 100-day moving average, but until boxed beef demand shows stable interest and until the cash cattle market regains some footing -- the complex could continue to trade in this choppy sideways manner. Monday's slaughter is estimated 117,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be mixed, somewhat higher in Texas, but slightly lower in Nebraska/Colorado and lower in Kansas.
Last week Northern dressed cattle sold for mostly $298, which is $6.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, but live sales in the North were marked at mostly $190, which is $2.00 to $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle were traded at mostly $185, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 73,238 head. Of that 70% (51,194 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 30% (22,044 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.90 ($315.55) and select down $0.58 ($302.01) with a movement of 135 loads (95.00 loads of choice, 22.06 loads of select, 4.14 loads of trim and 13.32 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been buying cattle with time and that the board remains cautious overall, steady to somewhat lower is what's expected of this week's cash cattle market.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though the live cattle complex was able to see some positive trader interest ahead of Monday's close, the feeder cattle complex wasn't budging from its lower descend as traders desire much strong support before they'll consider trading the market higher. August feeders closed $0.40 lower at $242.37, September feeders closed $0.22 lower at $239.27 and October feeders closed $0.07 lower at $235.87. The market has plenty of technical room to trade higher, at this point it is only lacking support.
At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder cattle were only lightly tested but feeder steers sold mostly steady to $2.00 lower with the biggest decline on those weighing over 800 pounds. Feeder heifers traded unevenly steady. Steer and heifer calves sold $3.00 to $6.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 57%. The CME feeder cattle index 8/16/2024: down $2.72, $243.99.
LEAN HOGS:
Pork cutouts may have closed lower, but the lean hog complex rallied all the way through Monday's end as traders seemed ambitious to support the complex. October lean hogs closed $1.72 higher at $76.80, December lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $68.75 and February lean hogs closed $1.25 higher at $72.22. The market's higher close does push the spot October contract to its upper resistance level which traders may feel pressured by on Tuesday. It wasn't surprising to see the carcass price close lower given that the butt fell $3.82, the ham fell $2.98 and the belly fell $2.73 lower. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.28 with a weighted average price of $82.72 on 629 head. Pork cutouts totaled 255.28 loads with 219.60 loads of pork cuts and 35.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.20, $98.67. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 14,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 8/15/2024: down $0.11, $90.09.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/Lower. Given that pork cutout values were lower, it's likely that Tuesday's cash market will be lightly tested.
No comments:
Post a Comment