GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle complex endured a tough breaking day as not only did the futures close lower but cash prices traded $2.00 lower too. Some more clean up trade is likely on Friday, but prices will likely remain steady with the week's trend. December corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 494.82 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 17,700 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were up 32% from the previous week and 35% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (5,300 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 31,500 mt for 2024 were up 5% from the previous week but down 10% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (12,800 mt), Columbia (4,100 mt) and Canada (3,700 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex endured strenuous pressure throughout the day which ultimately trickled over and affected the cash cattle market too. There was a chance that the market could have traded steady if feedlot managers would have waited to trade until Friday, but with the board's meltdown, feedlots managers grew anxious and spilt the milk early. August live cattle closed $2.32 lower at $184.80, October live cattle closed $2.95 lower at $183.72 and December live cattle closed $3.27 lower at $184.60. The spot October contract did close below its 40-day moving average ($184.65), but still closed higher than the market's 100-day moving average ($181.65). Southern live cattle have been marked at $188 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle are trading at $310 which is also $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 6,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.98 ($312.79) and select down $2.70 ($297.46) with a movement of 128 loads (75.10 loads of choice, 38.33 loads of select, 5.50 loads of trim and 9.22 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that trade has been noted in both regions, it's likely that the week's prices are now set.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex had the toughest day of all as the market plummeted $4.00 to $5.00 lower and the spot September contract closed at its lowest point since May. August feeders closed $4.10 lower at $253.15, September feeders closed $5.30 lower at $251.80 and October feeders closed $5.27 at $250.87. It's understandable that between seeing the live cattle complex close lower and fed cash cattle prices back off $2.00 that the feeder cattle complex would have closed lower – but today's downward plumet seemed a bit extreme and overdone. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas compared to last week feeder steers weighing 700 to 975 pounds sold $3.00 to $7.00 lower, but a few thin weighted seven weight steers sold steady. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 higher, and slaughter and slaughter bulls sold $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 97%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/31/2024: down $0.87, $257.82.
LEAN HOGS:
The technical pressure which affected the cattle complex didn't seep over and affect the lean hog market. Thankfully the lean hog contracts were able to rally through the day's end and pork cutout values closed higher too. There wasn't any one individual cut that close wildly higher, but between modest gains seen across most of the cuts, (all expect the butt which closed $0.42 lower) the carcass price was able to round out the day higher too. August lean hogs closed $0.87 higher at $93.15, October lean hogs closed $1.10 higher at $77.02 and December lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $69.32. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.53 with a weighted average price of $85.23 on 1,292 head. Pork cutouts totaled 262.00 loads with 239.51 loads of pork cuts and 22.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.98, $105.86. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/30/2024: up $0.49, $93.08.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers bought aggressively earlier this week, it's not likely that Friday's cash market will see much packer support.
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