Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Lackluster Day for the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex didn't see much support from traders throughout the day, but if fundamental support shows up later this week, there's a chance that traders could become more willing to participate in the market. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, somewhat smaller in Texas and lower in Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is up 4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 417.86 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was an uneventful day for the live cattle complex as the market merely drifted lower as traders continue to wait to see what's going to develop this week fundamentally. Given that just last week the spot June contract scored yet another new contract high, it's likely that traders will respect that new technical top unless something wild breaks out in the fed cash cattle market. But with packers having been able to buy over 140,000 head in the last two weeks and commit those cattle to the nearby delivery, feedlot managers may be harder pressed to get cattle sold at higher prices this week. April live cattle closed $1.02 lower at $207.80, June live cattle closed $1.20 lower at $203.65 and August live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $200.02. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, somewhat smaller in Texas and lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 104,000 head -- 15,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $209 to $210 which is steady to $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at $335 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average as well, but regional packers paid as much as $345 which is $10.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 62,630 head. Of that 94% (58,853 head) were committed to the nearby delivery option while the remaining 6% (3,777 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.44 ($335.26) and select up $1.33 ($320.01) with a movement of 120 loads (71.19 loads of choice, 21.78 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 19.29 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Last week's slaughter was aggressive, but packers have been tactfully adding more inventory up around them. This week's fed cash cattle market could be partly driven by how consumers affect boxed beef prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Mirroring the attitude and sediment in the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts rounded out the day lower. April feeders closed $0.47 lower at $286.45, May feeders closed $0.67 lower at $284.50 and August feeders closed $0.17 lower at $289.50. Over the last two weeks, the feeder cattle complex has followed closely in line with whatever the live cattle market does, and this trend likely remains prevalent this week as well. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers under 800 pounds were trading steady to $8.00 lower but the heavier weighted steers were trading steady to $2.00 higher. Feeder heifers were selling steady to $7.00 lower. The CME feeder cattle index 3/28/2025: up $4.74, $291.50.

LEAN HOGS:

The feeder cattle complex continues to face technical resistance at $98.00 in the spot June contract. The market traded higher Friday afternoon but ultimately closed lower which was the sediment throughout the complex again today. There's a chance that the market will trade better later this week if pork cutout values continue to trade higher. The carcass price was mostly influenced by the ham's $2.20 jump this afternoon. April lean hogs closed $1.02 higher at $87.72, June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $95.27 and July lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $95.82. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.19 with a weighted average price of $88.49 on 4,200 head. Pork cutouts totaled 231.56 loads with 197.27 loads of pork cuts and 34.29 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.89, $97.45. Monday's slaughter is estimated 469,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 109,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/27/2025: down $0.35, $88.78.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely be active in Tuesday's cash market as they still need to procure more supply for the week.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Trade Lower at the Week's Start

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a mixed morning for the livestock complex as once again traders are cautious of how they're handling the cattle complex but are more willing to support the lean hog complex. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, somewhat smaller in Texas and lower in Nebraska/Colorado. May corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 111.39 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As the market tip-toes into the new week, traders are again cautious not to be overly supportive of the contracts ahead of seeing what's going to develop fundamentally this week. April live cattle are down $0.95 at $207.87, June live cattle are down $1.35 at $203.50 and August live cattle are down $1.12 at $199.85. Just last week the futures complex reached yet another new contract high in the spot June contract, so it's natural for traders to be cautious amid reaching new technical highs. It's likely that the cash cattle market won't trade until Friday again this week. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, somewhat smaller in Texas and lower in Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $209 to $210 which is steady to $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at $335 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average as well, but regional packers paid as much as $345 which is $10.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.01 ($333.83) and select up $0.49 ($319.17) with a movement of 53 loads (26.91 loads of choice, 6.37 loads of select, 4.71 loads of trim and 14.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is again trapped and feeling unable to take on the resistance pressure of its market, while the live cattle contracts trade lower. The market has seemed to somewhat plateau and unless something riveting happens in the live cattle complex, it's unlikely that the market will move boldly enough on its own to push through this barrier. April feeders are down $0.85 at $286.07, May feeders are down $1.05 at $284.12 and August feeders are down $0.55 at $289.12.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was trading lower at the day's start, but throughout the morning the market has grown stronger and thankfully the contracts are trading fully higher into Monday's noon hour. April lean hogs are up $0.52 at $87.22, June lean hogs are up $0.12 at $95.90 and July lean hogs are steady at $96.60. It's likely helping that the market has stronger pork cutout values this morning, which is largely stemming from the ham's $4.39 uptick.

The projected lean hog index for 3/28/2025 is down $0.28 at $88.50, and the actual index for 3/27/2025 is down $0.35 at $88.78. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.54 with a weighted average price of $88.45, ranging from $86.50 to $91.00 on 622 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.96. Pork cutouts total 128.89 loads with 104.39 loads of pork cuts and 24.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.44, $98.00.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Equity Markets to Influence Trading

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders became disillusioned as Friday progressed, as the cash cattle trade remained light and what trade took place was not promising. Southern live trade was mostly from $209 to $210, $1.00 lower than the previous week. However, the Northern dressed cattle trade ranged from $335-3$45 with a major packer paying $335 and a regional packer paying $345, which was $10.00 higher than the previous week. The cattle market is alive and well, even though futures closed lower and the market has not been able to extend its gains to new highs since the Cattle on Feed report. Cash trade should support the market even though boxed beef prices were lower. Choice declined by $2.90 with select down by $0.76. The largest influence on the trade this week might be the equity markets and how they perform as tariffs are implemented. There is a fear of a recession which could impact consumer demand and top the market despite tight cattle numbers. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders adding 18,563 long live cattle futures positions, bringing their net-long to 136,592. They bought 2,966 futures in feeder cattle to bring their net-long position to 32,504.

Hog futures opened substantially higher Friday in reaction to the bullish Hogs and Pigs report, but the strength faded as traders sold the strength based on current fundamentals. The report showed price should be supported in time if demand holds or improves. The current market is struggling to find that support as cash and cutouts need to reflect increasing demand and tighter hog numbers. Slaughter remains strong, but higher weights supply sufficient pork to the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.21 as packers needed to finish purchases. Pork cutouts gained $1.72. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders as net sellers of 3,540 futures contracts, reducing their net-long position to 49,135.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The higher cash paid for dressed cattle should provide support. Packers needed to step up as they were short-bought.	1)	Cattle futures have not been able to push to new contract highs since the Cattle on Feed report. This may indicate the market may have run its course and new highs may be difficult to attain.
2)	April is the traditional start to the grilling season, which may increase demand for beef. Slaughter has already been running higher.	2)	The weakness in the Southern live cattle trade last week may indicate that feedlots may need to move cattle and may not be able to hold out for higher prices.
3)	The Hogs and Pigs report was bullish and should support the market over time. Many times, the numbers on the reports are traded a day or two after the release as traders focus on the results rather than emotion.	3)	There does not seem to be any significant increase in pork demand due to high beef prices. Consumers have not turned to add more pork to their diets.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feedlot Managers Hold Out for Higher Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly lower Friday afternoon after an eventful week. The cash cattle market has still only seen a small sampling of cattle traded, where Southern live cattle have traded steady to $1.00 lower but Northern dressed sales have been noted at $10.00 higher. May corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 715.80 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $1.88, June live cattle up $2.07; April feeder cattle up $1.95, May feeder cattle up $0.07; April lean hogs up $0.58, June lean hogs down $1.70; May corn down $0.11, July corn down $0.11.

LIVE CATTLE:

After rallying to a new contract high just Thursday afternoon in the spot June contract, the live cattle complex simply wasn't willing to advance anymore ahead of seeing what the cash cattle market was going to do. And low and behold, the North saw impressive price jumps in its region, but trade didn't develop until after the market's close. April live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $208.82, June live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $204.85 and August live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $201.00. At the time of this writing the cash cattle market's trade has still been thin, and so it will be vital to check the week's weighted average prices on Monday as late afternoon sales will be reported there. Nevertheless, the market has seen some live cattle sold in the South at $209 to $210, which is steady to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle sales have been marked at $345 which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 17,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 609,000 head -- 49,000 head more than a week ago and 27,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.90 ($332.82) and select down $0.76 ($318.68) with a movement of 133 loads (81.06 loads of choice, 13.63 loads of select, 24.50 loads of trim and 13.74 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Next week's trend will likely depend on exactly how many cattle packers were able to get bought this past week and how strong beef demand remains.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex fell right in line again today with the live cattle market's direction closing lower as traders were anxiously waiting for the cash cattle market's trade to develop. Even though feeder cattle demand remains strong in the countryside as buyers recognize the fact that cattle prices are likely going to get more expensive the closer turn out season gets, there has been active buying in the market to try to fulfill their orders. April feeders closed $0.62 lower at $286.92, May feeders closed $1.35 lower at $285.17 and August feeders closed $0.97 lower at $289.67. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers traded $1.00 to $4.00 higher. Steer calves traded steady except those weighing 500 to 600 pounds which traded $7.00 higher. Feifer calves sold steady to $2.00 higher. Slaughter cows traded $1.00 to $4.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $1.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 69%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/27/2025: down $0.86, $286.76.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was originally trading higher in the early part of the day, but as the afternoon neared, traders grew more and more worried about the market's resistance pressures and elected to send the contracts lower ahead of the day's close. April lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $86.70, June lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $95.77 and July lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $96.60. It didn't help matters either that afternoon pork cutout values dipped slightly lower, which was again mainly because of the belly which fell $3.70 lower itself. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.21 with a weighted average price of $88.30 on 3,007 head. Pork cutouts totaled 267.83 loads with 231.79 loads of pork cuts and 36.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.81, $94.84. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 471,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 32,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 70,000 head. The CME lean hog index 3/26/2025: steady, $89.13.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers were so aggressive in this week's cash hog market, it's likely that they won't need to be as aggressive early next week.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts Trade Lower Waiting for Cash Sales to Develop

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts continue to wait for the cash cattle market to trade. Traders are hopeful that the cash market will trade higher but aren't comfortable trading the contracts higher until they see for sure. May corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 634.54 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After carving out yet another new contract high just yesterday afternoon in the spot June contract, the live cattle complex is twiddling its fingers, holding the market merely steady as traders wait to see what's going to amount in this week's cash market. April live cattle are down $0.55 at $209.00, June live cattle are down $0.82 at $204.97 and August live cattle are down $0.82 at $200.97. The cash cattle complex is still sitting idle, with no major sales having been reported yet. A call was made to DTN of some cattle that traded in Iowa for $222. If that's any indication of how the week's trend may go, that's substantially higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices are noted in the South at $211 to $212 but are still not known in the North. Trade should begin to break loose any minute.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.33 ($333.39) and select up $0.92 ($320.36) with a movement of 88 loads (50.70 loads of choice, 5.88 loads of select, 21.04 loads of trim and 10.85 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Once again following in the same suit as the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts are trading lower as traders anxiously wait to see what's going to develop in this week's fed cash cattle market. April feeders are down $1.25 at $286.30, May feeders are down $1.85 at $284.60 and August feeders are down $1.50 at $289.15. Demand in the countryside remains incredible in terms of buyers' willingness to bid calves and feeders higher and higher, so today's hesitancy is solely technical.

LEAN HOGS:

After being able to fully absorb Thursday's supportive Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the lean hog complex is trading higher thanks to the USDA's supportive report and thanks to the uptick in pork cutout prices this morning as well. April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $87.05, June lean hogs are up $0.72 at $96.92 and July lean hogs are up $0.92 at $97.70. The market will likely be able to keep this bullish tone through the day's end given all the fundamental support in which it's currently seeing.

The projected lean hog index for 3/27/2025 is down $0.35 at $88.78, and the actual index for 3/26/2025 is steady at $89.13. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.58 with a weighted average price of $87.91, ranging from $84.00 to $89.00 on 2,078 head and a five-day rolling average of $87.95. Pork cutouts total 201.02 loads with 186.25 loads of pork cuts and 14.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.91, $98.75.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Should Find Support From Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders decided cattle futures corrected sufficiently and became active buyers Thursday. The April and June live cattle contracts closed at new contract highs. Traders are bullish for cash this week. There have been no cash trades with a higher bid passed Thursday, similar to last week. Feedlots are holding out and packers need to step up and pay more or go home without any cattle on the books. Boxed beef prices were mixed Thursday with choice down $2.58 and select up $2.91, but that will have little influence on the market Friday. Weekly export sales were low at only 8,000 metric tons (mt). However, this did not influence the market as domestic demand is strong and prices continue to increase. Feeder cattle futures did not exhibit the same strength but followed live cattle higher. The demand in the country remains strong, which could push futures to new highs.

Hog futures showed substantial losses for much of Thursday but rebounded from the lows ahead of the close. Traders positioned themselves ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was surprisingly bullish in all categories. This should provide traders with the confidence to buy into the market aggressively. All hogs and pigs on March 1 were 100% at 74.512 million head. Kept for breeding was 99% at 5.98 million head. Kept for marketing was 100% at 68.532 million head. These were below expectations and should support the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.10. Cash is expected to be higher Friday as packers need to finish purchases for the week. Pork cutouts were down $0.81. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 66,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	April and June live cattle closed at new contract highs with other contracts not far behind. Traders have regained confidence that the uptrend will resume.	1)	Traders may not be willing to push cattle futures higher ahead of the weekend with contract highs at resistance level.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to trade higher this week as feedlots intend to get higher prices or hold until next week.	2)	Boxed beef prices may have difficulty moving much higher as the current prices may begin affecting demand.
3)	The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was bullish in all categories. This should trigger aggressive buying interest in futures.	3)	Even though the Hogs and Pigs report was bullish, sufficient hogs are available to the market. Packers have not had to be aggressive. .
4)	The are chart gaps remaining above the market that may have a chance to be filled over time due to the bullishness of the Hogs and Pigs report.	4)	Pork cutouts continue to flounder as demand is strong, but not strong enough to establish a higher trend.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Turn Supportive of the Cattle Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a winning day for the cattle complex as both of the contracts closed higher, and even the spot June live cattle contract scored a new contract higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. May corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 155.09 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,000 mt for 2025 were down 22% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,300 mt), Japan (1,800 mt) and Mexico (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 31,900 mt for 2025 were up 77% from the previous week and up 13% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,400 mt), Colombia (3,700 mt) and Canada (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a lively day for the live cattle complex as the market seemed to shake the cautious nature possessed earlier in the week. Traders are pleased to see the continued support of consumer demand and believe that the fed cash cattle market may be able to trade steady, if not even a little higher again this week. April live cattle closed $2.47 higher at $209.55, June live cattle closed $2.77 higher at $205.80 and August live cattle closed $2.45 higher at $201.80. The spot June contract scored a new contract high ahead of today's close as the market took out last week's previous top showing again just how strong the market's overall support is. Throughout the day there was a single bid of $213 offered in Nebraska, but no trade developed throughout the day. Asking prices are noted in the South at $211 to $212, but are still not known for the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.58 ($335.72) and select up $2.91 ($319.44) with a movement of 117 loads (69.90 loads of choice, 12.80 loads of select, 27.18 loads of trim and 6.93 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers have waited this long to trade cattle it likely means that they're willing to wait the week out in hopes for stronger prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex wasn't sure whether it was going to find enough support ahead of the day's close to pull off a higher end, but with the help of the live cattle market's bullish bump, traders pushed the feeder cattle contracts higher. April feeders closed $1.67 higher at $287.55, May feeders closed $1.35 higher at $286.52 and August feeders closed $1.85 higher at $290.65. The market is again nearing resistance levels the complex reached just last week, and traders will likely wait to either take out last week's high or again bow to its pressure depending on what the cash cattle market accomplishes. At Clovis Livestock Auction in Clovis, New Mexico compared to last week feeder steers and heifers sold $2.00 to $8.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $2.00 to $5.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 to $7.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 56%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/26/2025: up $0.77, $287.67.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex waited anxiously throughout the day for the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, and to its surprise, the report was favorable to the market and showed a bullish outlook. 

And even though the Quarterly report was friendly, traders elected to hedge themselves accordingly ahead of the big report unveiling which is why the contracts rounded out the day lower. April lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $87.02, June lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $96.17 and July lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $96.77. Pork cutout values closed slightly lower – but it's likely that traders see the positive nature of the USDA report and elect to focus on it in Friday's market as opposed to the slight dip in pork cutout values. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.10 with a weighted average price of $88.09 on 6,101 head. Pork cutouts totaled 267.83 loads with 231.79 loads of pork cuts and 36.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.81, $94.84. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 24,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/25/2025: up $0.23, $89.13.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have likely secured the inventory they need for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Lean Hog Complex Dips Lower Waiting for the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 8,000 mt for 2025 were down 22% from the previous week and 43% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,300 mt), Japan (1,800 mt) and Mexico (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 31,900 mt for 2025 were up 77% from the previous week and up 13% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (14,400 mt), Colombia (3,700 mt) and Canada (3,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is back to trading slightly higher as the contracts are no longer up against immediate pressure of hitting resistance points, and given the fact that traders remain hopeful that cash cattle prices will trade steady to somewhat higher again this week. April live cattle are up $0.67 at $207.67, June live cattle are up $0.67 at $203.70 and August live cattle are up $0.55 at $199.90. There's a bid currently on the table in Nebraska at $213, but no trade has developed quite yet. Asking prices are firm in the South from $211 to $212 but are not yet established in the North. Given the strong prices boxed beef prices have seen again this week, it's likely that feedlot managers will be willing to hold out until the week's bitter end for at steady prices, but ideally, they'd like to see higher prices.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.02 ($338.28) and select up $2.89 ($319.42) with a movement of 77 loads (37.02 loads of choice, 9.36 loads of select, 25.13 loads of trim and 5.38 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the live cattle complex is trading mildly higher, the feeder cattle contracts continue to trade slightly lower as traders want to see more confidence from the live cattle contracts before they push the feeder cattle contracts higher. Some of today's hesitancy could be stemming from the fact that the spot April contract is still relatively near its resistance threshold, which was established just last week. Nevertheless, the countryside continues to see phenomenal demand from buyers as they know that summertime pastures will be ready in no time. April feeders are steady at $285.90, May feeders are down $0.70 at $284.47 and August feeders are down $0.15 at $288.65.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though this morning's export sales report was supportive, the lean hog complex is braced ahead of this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. It's not helping matters either that pork cutout values are lower, which is adding even more doggishness to the market's tone. April lean hogs are down $0.82 at $86.72, June lean hogs are down $1.97 at $94.57 and July lean hogs are down $1.92 at $95.40.

The projected lean hog index for 3/26/2025 is steady at $89.13, and the actual index for 3/25/2025 is up $0.23 at $89.13. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.95 with a weighted average price of $88.49, ranging from $86.00 to $92.00 on 3,061 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.03. Pork cutouts total 156.55 loads with 129.63 loads of pork cuts and 26.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.14, $95.51.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hogs and Pigs Report Day

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The strength of boxed beef prices so far this week indicates solid demand continues. Choice cuts increased by $3.11 with select cuts up $2.48. This should result in higher cash cattle trade this week as the feedlots will hold for higher cash due to this strength. Packers will need to be aggressive if they want to pry cattle from the hands of the feedlots. This should result in continued support in cattle futures, with contracts potentially regaining recent losses and pushing back to new highs. Even with the potential for higher futures prices, it is difficult to predict cash trade. However, with strong boxed beef and tight supplies, feedlots may willingly hold cattle over another week if they do not receive the prices they want. Thursday is the last day to trade March feeder cattle.

Hog futures continue to show no solid price direction. Packers continue to purchase hogs without difficulty and without having to bid higher to obtain them. Cash was lower Wednesday with The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report down $0.46. Cutouts fell, posting a loss of $1.90 with the largest declines in hams and bellies. It is difficult to say whether cash will trade higher Thursday, as it does many times, due to a large number of hogs already purchased this week. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released Thursday. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs on March 1 is 101.2% of a year ago. Kept for breeding is estimated at 100.2%. Kept for marketing is estimated at 101.1%. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 66,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Boxed beef prices have been very strong this week, indicating consumer demand remains solid. Packers may need to step up and pay more to maintain the slaughter pace.	1)	It is uncertain whether packers are short-bought or if they have sufficient cattle on hand to leave them less aggressive in the cash market.
2)	Feedlots will hold out for higher cash due to demand strength and more aggressive buying in cattle futures.	2)	Even though live cattle futures hold a discount to cash, the price did not recover much of the recent weakness.
3)	Hog futures have been holding support. There is potential for pork demand to improve over time as beef becomes too expensive for consumers.	3)	Weekly weights gained 0.9 pounds last week to an average of 290.7 pounds. This is 3.3 pounds higher than a year ago.
4)	A friendly Hogs and Pigs report could support the market and turn the trend higher.	4)	Hog futures have been unable to break above technical resistance. Short-term traders have been able to take advantage of the sideways trend.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Find Confidence in Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Overall, it was a winning day for the livestock complex as most of the futures contracts closed higher, boxed beef prices closed higher, and the cash hog market saw another big movement today. Heading into Thursday's market, be on the lookout for the morning's export report and the afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. May corn is down 6 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 132.71 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Given that traders pushed the contracts lower earlier in the week, the complex was able to close higher Wednesday afternoon as traders were no longer up against resistance thresholds. April live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $207.07, June live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $203.02 and August live cattle closed $0.47 higher at $199.35. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's not likely that any will be ahead of Friday as feedlot managers are hoping to advance the market this week but will be faced with some opposition from packers as they have some supply built up around them. Asking prices are noted in the South at $212-plus but are still not known for the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 34,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $3.11 ($338.30) and select up $2.48 ($316.53) with a movement of 140 loads (77.78 loads of choice, 13.55 loads of select, 27.28 loads of trim and 21.52 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. It's a coin toss on whether or not packers will be able to keep the market from advancing this week. With boxed beef prices continuing to inch higher and higher, the last thing they want to be is short bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following in the live cattle market's footsteps, the feeder cattle complex also closed higher as it had the necessary support. April feeders closed $1.02 higher at $285.87, May feeders closed $1.05 higher at $285.17 and August feeders closed $0.82 higher at $288.80. So long as the live cattle complex traders higher later in the week, it's also likely the feeder cattle contracts will. Currently, the market has enough fundamental support -- it just needs support from traders amid some technical hesitancy. Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week feeder steers under 600 pounds sold mostly $2.00 to $4.00 higher. Feeder steers over 600 pounds sold $3.00 to $4.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold mostly $1.00 to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 67%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/25/2024: up $0.65, $286.90.

LEAN HOGS:

Wednesday left the lean hog contracts mixed as the nearby contracts were able to maintain their higher position through the day's close, but the market's deferred contracts closed slightly lower. It was surprising to see that again today the cash hog market moved more than 13,000 head after having already bought a plethora of hogs earlier this week. The big-ticket item for Thursday will not only be the day's export report but also the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report. April lean hogs closed $0.90 higher at $87.55, June lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $96.55 and July lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $97.32. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.46 with a weighted average price of $88.19 on 13,488 head. Pork cutouts totaled 320.78 loads with 276.77 loads of pork cuts and 44.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.90, $95.65. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 129,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/24/2024: up $0.11, $88.90. The CME lean hog index 3/25/2025: up $0.11, $88.90.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have bought more aggressively this week than they normally do, it's likely that they've fulfilled their needs for the week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Turn the Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Thus far it's been a fruitful day for the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading higher. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but as feedlot managers seek higher prices again this week, the trade will likely be delayed until Friday. May corn is down 1 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 33.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After a couple of days of downward pressure, the live cattle complex is again trading higher as the market is no longer up against immediate resistance pressure. Trades are lower noting the continued support of stronger boxed beef prices but are patiently waiting for the cash cattle market to show its hand this week. If prices are again higher, then there's an argument to be made that the contracts could potentially trade higher. But if boxed beef prices and cash prices aren't both higher this week. It's then most likely the contracts won't pressure the high made just last week. April live cattle are up $0.77 at $207.15, June live cattle are up $0.80 at $203.12 and August live cattle are up $0.57 at $199.45. Asking prices are noted in the South at $212-plus but are still not established in the North. Trade will likely be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.77 ($337.96) and select up $2.98 ($317.03) with a movement of 100 loads (45.00 loads of choice 9.32 loads of select, 25.99 loads of trim and 19.38 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Seeming to mirror the same behavior as the live cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts are back to trading higher. April feeder cattle are up $1.02 at $285.87, May feeders are up $0.97 at $285.10 and August feeders are up $0.82 at $288.80. Demand has been incredible this week again for both feeder cattle and calves, with undeniable demand being noted for cattle that are suitable for grass. Buyers know that the closer time gets to turn out season, the more expensive these types of cattle are going to become.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading higher as traders are pleased to see pork cutout values higher again. The spot April contract isn't confident enough to take on the market's resistance at $88.00, but it's still trading higher nonetheless. April lean hogs are up $0.72 at $87.37, June lean hogs are up $1.15 at $97.40 and July lean hogs are up $0.90 at $98.17. There's a chance that packers may not be very aggressive in the cash market the rest of the week as they've already bought a number of hogs in the cash market.

The projected lean hog index for 3/25/2025 is up $0.23 at $89.13, and the actual index for 3/24/2025 is up $0.11 at $88.90. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.69 with a weighted average price of $87.54, ranging from $85.00 to $91.00 on 5,698 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.31. Pork cutouts total 188.50 loads with 164.72 loads of pork cuts and 23.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.81, $99.36.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look Ahead to Hogs and Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The action of cattle futures Tuesday suggests the selling pressure may have subsided and the market correction may have been sufficient for the time being. Traders seemed to be itching to buy the market in anticipation that packers will need to step up again this week. Boxed beef had a phenomenal day with choice up $8.09 at $335.19 and select up $0.47 at $314.05. Many people are wondering just how high beef prices can go. It will be up to demand to determine that level. The market's job is to find a price at which demand will slow, and that has not yet happened for beef. Feeder cattle are in strong demand as prices continue to escalate in the country. Cash trade has not taken place this week, but initial feedlot offers are $2.00 higher. Those may be raised if boxed beef prices continue higher this week.

Hog futures closed higher Tuesday as traders seemed more interested in keeping prices in the sideways range rather than trading cash or cutouts. The National Daily Direct price was slightly higher on the morning report but ended the day down $1.64. A higher cash price was anticipated and maybe part of the reason futures closed significantly off their highs. Packers may not be aggressive Wednesday either. Pork cutouts were higher with a gain of $0.18. Traders may begin to think more about the upcoming Hogs and Pigs report on Thursday and position themselves accordingly. These reports usually do not create much volatility as there are very few significant surprises. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs on March 1 is 101.2% of a year ago. Kept for breeding is estimated at 100.2%. Kept for marketing is estimated at 101.1%.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The market correction may have run its course with the rebound from the lows Tuesday. Traders may step back in to buy as the market remains fundamentally bullish.	1)	Cattle futures settled back even though the report last week was bullish. The market might be getting tired with traders reluctant to add to their long positions.
2)	The huge increase in choice boxed beef indicates continued strong demand, which may give packers no choice but to bid aggressively for cattle this week.	2)	Even though cattle futures have retraced since last week, futures are overbought and could see a further price correction.
3)	Hog futures have been able to hold support as demand seems to be sufficient to limit further weakness.	3)	Pork consumption needs to improve to tighten supply and cause the packers to be more aggressive in the cash market.
4)	Traders may liquidate some short positions ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report in case the report is friendly.	4)	Hog futures have been unable to penetrate technical resistance. If negative news surfaces, liquidation could be triggered.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Believe the Cattle Complex is Overbought

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts mainly remained lower through the day's end, but the lean hog complex maintained its higher position through the day's close. What was potentially most eye-catching throughout the day was the afternoon choice cuts jump of $8.09. May corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 46.03 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a mixed day for the live cattle complex as the contracts were able to improve slightly ahead of the day's close. Overall, the market's tone remains cautious in a technical sense as traders continue to wait to see what the cash cattle market does later this week and if it will lend the market any support or not. April live cattle closed $0.47 higher at $206.37, June live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $202.32 and August live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $198.87. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but asking prices are noted in the South at $212 plus. Trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday again this week. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $8.09 ($335.19) and select up $0.47 ($314.05) with a movement of 126 loads (76.49 loads of choice, 16.20 loads of select, 24.07 loads of trim and 9.62 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. With packers able to commit most of last week's purchase to the nearby delivery, prices could likely hold steady this week. On the other hand, there's also the chance that prices could trend even higher as boxed beef demand continues to charge higher and higher, and packers don't want to be short-bought cattle and miss out on an opportunity to market any beef in this market.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though some of the nearby live cattle contracts were able to close slightly higher ahead of the day's end, the feeder cattle complex didn't find the same luck ahead of today's close. April feeders closed $0.40 lower at $284.85, May feeders closed $0.72 lower at $284.12 and August feeders closed $0.52 lower at $287.97. Until something surfaces positive in the fed cattle market, it's likely that traders remain skeptical of overly supporting the feeder cattle complex following last week's powerful rally. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers and steer calves traded $4.00 to $8.00 higher, except those weighing 600 to 700 pounds, which traded up to $15.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $3.00 to $10.00 higher and heifer calves sold $5.00 to $12.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 70%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/24/2025: up $0.26, $287.25.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to successfully close higher as the market was pleased to see continued support this afternoon in both cash sales and pork cutout values. Given that the spot April contract is still far enough away from its resistance threshold of $88.00, traders were simply able to focus on the market's positive fundamentals and trade the contracts higher. April lean hogs closed $0.95 higher at $86.65, June lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $96.25 and July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $97.27. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.64 with a weighted average price of $88.65 on 8,580 head. Pork cutouts totaled 375.51 loads with 341.25 loads of pork cuts and 34.26 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.18, $97.55. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/21/2025: down $0.09, $88.79.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers were aggressive again today, it's safe to assume that they were somewhat short-bought hogs headed into this week and could need some more supply before the week's over still.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Contracts Noticeably Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders continue to remain skeptical of the cattle complex as they're concerned the market is overbought and somewhat due for a correction. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is simply pleased pork cutout values are higher and is trading higher because of the added consumer demand. May corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 50.29 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It's been a disgruntling day for the live cattle complex. Even though we knew the market would likely face some technical pressure this week, seeing the contracts trade anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower is aggravating following the wild success the market had last week. April live cattle are down $1.67 at $204.22, June live cattle are down $2.02 at $200.12, and August live cattle are down $2.32 at $196.72. Until traders see what this week's fed cash cattle trade is going to amount to -- they'll likely remain on edge and leery of being too supportive. Asking prices are noted in the South at $212-plus, but are still not established in the North. Trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $6.93 ($334.03) and select up $0.11 ($313.69) with a movement of 63 loads (39.68 loads of choice, 6.59 loads of select, 8.35 loads of trim and 8.42 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading lower as it continues to mirror the mannerisms of the live cattle market. April feeders are down $2.25 at $283.00, May feeders are down $2.50 at $282.35, and August feeders are down $2.32 at $286.17. And until some support develops technically, the contracts likely will continue to trade lower as the market's current weakness is largely stemming from trader worry that the complex is overbought.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading higher as the market is pleased to see pork cutout values higher Tuesday morning. The day's higher note in the carcass price, however, largely is thanks to the whopping $19.39 rally in the belly, while most of the other cuts are trading lower. Nevertheless, traders are electing to view the note of this morning's higher carcass price as positive support. April lean hogs are up $0.95 at $86.65, June lean hogs are up $1.05 at $96.85, and July lean hogs are up $1.05 at $97.82.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 3/24/2025 is up $0.11 at $88.90, and the actual index for 3/21/2025 is down $0.09 at $88.79. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.20 with a weighted average price of $88.23, ranging from $87.00 to $90.00 on 2,346 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.97. Pork cutouts total 187.67 loads with 167.13 loads of pork cuts and 20.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.99, $100.36. Pork cutout values: up $2.99, $100.36.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Have Limited Downside Potential

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle did not capitalize on the bullish Cattle on Feed report Monday, making it a a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario. The weakness on Monday does not mean the top is in, as the April contract is holding a discount to cash and cash is expected to be no worse than steady this week. Packers were able to purchase a significant amount of cattle last week, but the amount for deferred delivery was light, which may mean they will need to be aggressive this week to buy what they need. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.65 and select up $3.96. Demand is holding even at the higher beef prices. Packers will not be aggressive early in the week but will wait to see if feedlots will offer more cattle this week before placing bids. Feeder cattle futures closed with minimal losses after opening significantly higher. Feeder cattle demand remains strong with higher prices being paid.

Hogs could not get the attention of buyers Monday with futures falling back to the bottom of the range. Fortunately, futures did not remain at the lows but bounced to minimize technical bearishness. Fundamentally, the market is struggling to search for support in cutouts, which would indicate stronger demand. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.89, which was unusual for a Monday. Pork cutouts were up $0.51. This combination may provide support Tuesday, but it will take continued gains to establish an uptrend and turn traders bullish.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The numbers on the Cattle on Feed report indicated the bullish posture of the cattle industry. This will not change anytime soon.	1)	Cattle futures may have had the bullish Cattle on Feed report factored in and it is now correcting to find an equilibrium to the current fundamentals. A further retracement is possible.
2)	Some long-range forecasts indicate the potential for a drought in some cattle areas this summer. That could curtail rebuilding of the cattle herd. .	2)	Consumers may reduce beef purchases as prices are very high. They may find alternatives as food prices in general continue to increase.
3)	Packers were aggressive buyers of hogs on Monday. That may indicate good demand was seen over the weekend.	3)	Pork has yet to benefit significantly from high beef prices. Cutouts remain variable having difficulty finding support.
4)	The rebound of hog futures from the lows on Monday was a good sign that traders are not overly bearish on the market.	4)	Hog futures need to find technical support soon or there could be further liquidation pressure on the market.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Remain Skeptical of Being Too Supportive

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex grew skeptical of trading too aggressively early in the week, and ultimately, all three of the markets closed lower Monday afternoon. New showlists appear to be lower in all three major feeding states for the cash cattle market. May corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 597.97 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex had all the support in the world that it could ever hope for last week, the contracts rounded out the day lower as traders remain skeptical of overly supporting the contracts ahead of seeing what the week's cash cattle trade is going to amount to. April live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $205.90, June live cattle closed $0.62 lower at $202.15 and August live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $199.05. After reaching new contract highs last week, traders could likely keep their leery attitude throughout the remainder of the week as they're going to need to see a plethora of support to justify trading the contracts any higher. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. New showlists appear to be lower in all three major feeding states.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $210, which is $7.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $335, which is $10.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Depending on where the week's weighted averages land, it's likely that these prices mark new all-time highs in both of the regions. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 94,956 head. Of that, 88% (83,685 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 12% (11,271 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher choice up $1.65 ($327.10) and select up $3.96 ($313.58) with a movement of 79 loads (45.55 loads of choice, 10.76 loads of select, 9.64 loads of trim and 12.67 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers were able to buy a lot of cattle last week and that they committed most of them to the nearby delivery option, it's likely that this week's cash market could trade steady.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a mixed day for the feeder cattle complex as the market saw some of its nearby contracts maintain a slightly higher edge compared to the deferred contracts that closed fully lower. But overall, the futures complex seemed to acquire the same skeptical attitude that the live cattle complex had throughout the day. April feeders closed $0.27 higher at $285.25, May feeders closed $0.25 lower at $284.85 and August feeders closed $0.32 lower at $288.50. And given the fact that most of the nearby contracts scored new contract highs last week, it's likely that traders remain leery of overly supporting the contracts until it's known what this week's fed cash cattle market is going to do. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers were selling anywhere from $4.00 lower to $7.00 higher, while feeder heifers were trading steady to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 57%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/21/2025: down $0.79, $286.99.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day lower as traders remained skeptical of overly supporting the lean hog complex at this point. The sideways trend seems to be the comfortable option for the contracts as they aren't confident in what this week's demand picture is going to look like. It was surprising, however, to see that the cash hog market traded 7,143 head today and that prices were over $1.00 higher. April lean hogs closed $0.42 lower at $85.70, June lean hogs closed $1.67 lower at $95.80 and July lean hogs closed $1.95 lower at $96.77. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.89 with a weighted average price of $90.29 on 7,143 head. Pork cutouts totaled 266.00 loads, with 231.66 loads of pork cuts and 34.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.51, $97.37. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/20/2025: down $0.32, $88.88.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that packers were abnormally aggressive in today's cash market, it likely means that they're short bought and still need some supply.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Contracts Trade Higher Thanks to a Bullish Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts are trading higher while the lean hog complex trades slightly lower. A big line item this week will be the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report that's set to be released on Thursday, March 27. May corn is up 1 cent per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 535.72 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Friday's lower close, the live cattle complex is back to rallying, but the market doesn't seem confident in breaking through the market's high, which was established last week in the June contract at $205. Today's higher tone likely stems from the fact that Friday's Cattle on Feed report was indeed bullish, but traders are now seeming to look to the market's fundamentals to dictate whether or not higher prices are in store for the market this week. April live cattle are up $0.92 at $207.87, June live cattle are up $1.52 at $204.30 and August live cattle are up $1.67 at $201.02.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $210, which is $7.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $335, which is $10.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Depending on where the week's weighted averages land, it's likely that these prices mark new all-time highs in both of the regions. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 94,956 head. Of that, 88% (83,685 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 12% (11,271 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.13 ($325.32) and select up $2.16 ($311.78), with a movement of 42 loads (22.96 loads of choice, 6.46 loads of select, 6.34 loads of trim and 6.32 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Following in line with the live cattle market's direction, the feeder cattle complex is also trading higher. April feeders are up $2.02 at $287.00, May feeders are up $1.60 at $286.70 and August feeders are up $1.97 at $290.80. The market is fearing some resistance pressure, but if fundamental support proves to be ample again this week, there's always the chance that traders could push the market higher again this week.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though the lean hog complex closed higher Friday afternoon, the market is back to trading lower as it waits to see what demand is going to amount to this week. And yes, Pork cutout values are higher this morning, but traders are going to need to see more followed-through support than one day's trade before they'll put much credence in the demand situation. Do note that the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released this upcoming Thursday. April lean hogs are down $0.27 at $85.65, June lean hogs are down $1.42 at $96.05 and July lean hogs are down $1.67 at $97.05.

The projected lean hog index for 3/21/2025 is down $0.09 at $88.79, and the actual index for 3/20/2025 is down $0.32 at $88.88. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.23, with a weighted average price of $88.03, ranging from $86.00 to $90.00 on 2,118 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.37. Pork cutouts total 153.90 loads, with 132.55 loads of pork cuts and 21.35 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.53, $98.39.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Regain Friday's Losses

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex moved to new highs early Friday and, even though cash cattle traded higher, traders decided to take profits ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. That may not have been necessary as the report was bullish. However, much of the bullishness of the report might have already been factored in and now that the numbers are known, futures may settle back further. The strong cash trade will provide sufficient support to move the market higher, no matter the reaction to the report. Southern live cattle traded $7.00 higher at $210. This should support the futures as the April contract holds a discount to cash. Northern dressed cattle traded $10.00 higher, averaging $335. Boxed beef prices were mixed, ranging from $2.61 lower to $0.26 higher. Feeder cattle prices in the country continue to increase with continued strong demand. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders as net buyers of 6,968 futures contracts in live cattle, bringing their long position to 118,029 contracts. They added 771 long positions to feeder cattle with a net-long position of 29,538 contracts.

Hog futures found support, keeping futures in the sideways range it has been in. Cash and cutouts continue to fluctuate and unable to establish a solid trend. Hog slaughter was lower for the week due to the impact of weather and some plants being closed some days. That may have little impact on the market as movement and slaughter will return to the usual. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.99. The packers will assess pork demand before purchasing more aggressively. Pork cutouts on Friday gained $1.00. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders increasing their net-long futures position by 2,246 contracts to 52,675.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report was bullish, which may increase the buying interest and keep the trend higher.	1)	The bullishness of the Cattle on Feed report may have already been factored in. Further liquidation may be possible.
2)	The large increase in cash cattle last week indicates the packers were short-bought and it is unlikely they purchased many cattle for deferred delivery with the jump in prices.	2)	Cattle futures are overbought and ripe for a price correction. Traders may liquidate and buy back into the market at a lower price.
3)	Hog futures bounced from the lows, moving futures solidly back into the trading range. The market seems to be building support.	3)	Pork cutouts and the cash market remain choppy, unable to trend higher. Consumer demand has not shifted from beef to pork as expected.
4)	There is anticipation that pork demand will improve due to the extremely high beef prices. Consumers will reach a threshold of what they will pay for beef.	4)	The packers continue to find an ample supply of market-ready hogs, leaving them less aggressive with no need to chase the market higher.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Day For The Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the cattle contracts closed slightly lower -- but the cash cattle market rallied $7.00 to $10.00 higher. Meanwhile the lean hog complex was also able to find some mild support ahead of the weekend, which helped its contracts close higher too. May corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $3.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.03 points

From Friday-to-Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: April live cattle up $3.78, June live cattle up $3.43; March feeder cattle up $4.50, April feeder cattle up $3.78; April lean hogs down $0.50, June lean hogs up $1.18; May corn up $0.06, July corn up $0.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle contracts may have closed lower as traders gently pulled back the reins on the market's wild rally this past week, but don't think for a second that Friday's market was a bust. For starters, even though futures traders were more timid throughout Friday's trade, the rally the live cattle contracts fronted this week was truly incredible as traders had to wait to see until Friday what the cash cattle market was going to do. And low and behold, the cash cattle market proved to be as bullish as trades believed it would be as prices traded anywhere from $7.00 to $10.00 higher. And depending on where the week's weighted averages land, it's very likely that new all-time highs were scored in both regions again this week. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $210, which is $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $335, which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 100,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 20,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 560,000 head -- 24,000 head less than a week ago and 32,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.61 ($324.45) and select up $0.26 ($309.62) with a movement of 124 loads (82.69 loads of choice, 9.38 loads of select, 8.77 loads of trim and 22.71 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Before one can say what next week's trend is going to be, we need to see exactly how many cattle sold this past week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex may have ventured lower throughout Friday's trade, but that was solely a technical decision as the market remained well supported on multiple fronts. Between the 18% decline in placements noted on this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, to the $7.00 to $10.00 rally in the cash cattle market, the feeder cattle complex saw ample fundamental support which should again encourage steady if not higher trade again next week. March feeders closed $1.87 lower at $286.47, April feeders closed $3.47 lower at $284.97 and May feeders closed $4.00 lower at $285.10. And it would be remiss of me to neglect to mention how strong the buyer demand in the countryside has been this past week. More than anything, I believe buyers are soberly aware of the fact that turn-out season will be quickly approaching and it's likely feeder cattle prices will continue to get higher and higher through that time. At the Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction, compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers sold $2.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 73%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 3/20/2025: up $1.84, $287.78.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to close mildly higher as the market was pleased to see some technical support come to fruition and was also supported by the day's higher cutout price. April lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $86.12, June lean hogs closed $1.22 higher at $97.47, and July lean hogs closed $1.17 higher at $98.72. The market will again likely face resistance pressure next week at $88.00; which was a problematic threshold for the market this week. But if consumer demand is stronger, then there's a chance traders could elect to take on the technical pressure.

Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.99 with a weighted average price of $88.40 on 4,224 head. Pork cutout totaled 337.35 loads with 307.77 loads of pork cuts and 29.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.00, $96.86. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected 158,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 3/19/2025: down $0.21, $89.20.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers are rarely aggressive in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Fed Cash Cattle Prices Turn $3 to $7 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though traders are cautiously handling the cattle contracts Friday ahead of the weekend and the monthly Cattle on Feed report -- there's much to celebrate as fed cash cattle prices are trading anywhere from $3 to $7 higher. So far, Southern live cattle are trading at mostly $210, which is $7 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle are trading at $212 to $214, which is $3 to $5 higher than last week's weighted average. May corn is down 6 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 61.42 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After an incredible week of near non-stop upward momentum, the live cattle complex seems to be holding its breath or pausing its nearly unfathomable rally as the market is only hours away from the weekend and is patiently waiting to see what the Cattle on Feed (COF) Report yields. Regardless of what the COF report shows, one could argue that the rally in this week's fed cash cattle market will overpower whatever the COF report details. So far this week, the fed cash cattle market's movement has been thin, but prices have been hot. So far, Southern live cattle are trading at mostly $210, which is $7 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle are trading at $212 to $214, which is $3 to $5 higher than last week's weighted average. It's rather incredible that on a week when throughput has been reduced because of weather conditions, that packers are still willing to advance the cash market $3 to $7 higher to ensure they have enough supply moving forward. Well done feedlot managers, well done!

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $2.15 ($325.91) and select up $0.28 ($209.64) with a movement of 86 loads (59.25 loads of choice, 5.41 loads of select, 6.10 loads of trim and 15.02 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though fed cash cattle prices are trading higher, traders are reluctant to advance the feeder cattle complex without the support of the live cattle contracts. March feeders are down $0.10 at $288.25, April feeders are down $1.25 at $287.20 and May feeders are down $1.47 at $287.62. Friday's weaker technical performance isn't due to any fundamental rhyme or reason, but rather because traders are questioning how much higher the market can actually trade, and as they wait to see what this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report unveils.

LEAN HOGS:

After a challenging week, the lean hog complex has finally found some support as its contracts are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. April lean hogs are up $1.22 at $86.77, June lean hogs are up $2.10 at $98.32 and July lean hogs are up $1.90 at $99.47. It is helpful that again Friday, pork cutout values are higher, which is stemming from a healthy blend of higher prices across nearly all the cuts.

The projected lean hog index for 3/20/2025 is down $0.32 at $88.88, and the actual index for 3/19/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.20. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.14 with a weighted average price of $88.26, ranging from $85.00 to $90.00 on 3,849 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.47. Pork cutouts total 236.90 loads with 218.82 loads of pork cuts and 18.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.48, $98.34.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Activity, Cattle on Feed Report Will Be The Focus

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle will trade Friday and the expectation has grown for higher cash to develop. One uncertainty is the weather factor as some plants have indicated they will not be operating due to the snow and high winds. This may push more cattle slaughter to Saturday and may impact the volume of cattle purchased for the week. However, packers are expected to pay more for cattle as they did not buy many for deferred delivery last week. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $1.55 and select up $0.68 The Cattle on Feed report will be released after the close and show lower numbers than a year ago. The estimates are for on-feed as of March 1 at 98.2% of a year ago with a range of 97.0% to 99.0%; placements in February at 85.6% with a range of 79.1% to 90.5%; cattle marketed in February at 91.8% with a range of 91.0% to 93.2%.

Hog futures struggled on Thursday as the demand factor came into focus again due to the low weekly export sales report. Sales of 18,100 metric tons (mt) were a marketing year low. Not only is international demand concerning, but domestic demand is also a concern. Pork cutouts were higher on Thursday, gaining $0.67, but the variability of cutouts indicates that demand is mixed and has not benefited from increased demand due to high beef prices. Hog slaughter has been lower this week due to the weather impacting plant operations. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 150,000 head. Cash was lower on the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report with a decline of $1.63.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report is expected to be bullish with lower on-feed, placement, and marketing numbers than a year ago.	1)	It is uncertain how aggressive packers will be today. The market may have more premium in April futures than what is needed. This could result in some selling pressure.
2)	Traders seem confident that cash cattle will trade higher Friday, providing further support to the market despite what the Cattle on Feed report will show.	2)	Cattle futures have moved up so far and fast that traders may decide to sell once the Cattle on Feed numbers are known. A buy the rumor, sell the fact action.
3)	Hog slaughter has been lower due to the weather, keeping some plants from operating -- and not from slower demand. Slaughter has held well and is higher than a year ago despite higher hog weights indicating steady demand.	3)	Hog futures will need to find support or further liquidation could take place.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex again closed mixed as the cattle contracts grew stronger ahead of the day's close, but the lean hog contracts still faced some pressure. Still no cash cattle trade has developed as feedlot managers hold out in hopes of higher prices. May corn is up 7 cents per bushel, and May soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11.31 points.

Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 10,200 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were down 29% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,000 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2025 -- a marketing-year low -- were down 11% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and South Korea (2,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

At first, traders were leery to be overly supportive of the live cattle complex ahead of seeing what the cash cattle market was going to accomplish this week. But bullish optimism shined through on Thursday afternoon and helped drive the contracts higher ahead of the close. April live cattle closed $1.65 higher at $208.47, June live cattle closed $2.17 higher at $205.02 and August live cattle closed $1.75 higher at $201.82. The day's lighter slaughter largely stems from the fact that a regional packer in eastern Nebraska is not slaughtering Thursday or Friday amid the blowing snow and hurricane-strength winds that are affecting the region. That will undoubtedly affect the week's total slaughter count. But what's yet to be know is whether it will deter packers from being as aggressive in this week's market as they originally planned to be. Time will tell. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are unavailable because of packer submission issues.

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though throughput is going to be reduced this week because of weather disruptions, it's likely that feedlot managers will elect to roll their showlists over to the next week as opposed to trade cattle for cheaper money.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Day in and day out, the feeder cattle complex continues to climb to new highs, as the market is robustly supported. From the higher close of the futures complex to the continued buyer demand being seen in the countryside, the feeder cattle market has all the support it could ever hope for. And if fed cash cattle prices do indeed trade higher on Friday, then the market really will have a near-perfect week, as things have panned out exactly as wished for. The only slight disruption that could come is if there's a surprise in Friday's March 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report. But pre-report estimates indicate that placements should be lower. March feeders closed $1.52 higher at $288.35, April feeders closed $1.72 higher at $288.45 and May feeders closed $1.60 higher at $289.10. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 600 to 749 pounds traded $7 to $10 higher with instances up to $15 higher, and steers weighing 750 to 949 pounds traded anywhere from steady to $7 higher. Even though the region is still dry, buyers are determined to get cattle bought before turn-out season arrives and green grass drives the prices of feeders even higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 86%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/19/2025: up $1.29, $285.94.

LEAN HOGS:

To no one's surprise, the lean hog complex did indeed close lower, as traders were disgruntled with the morning's export sales report. And although pork cutout values rounded out the day higher, traders still aren't comfortable, believing that the trend in pork demand is indeed higher now until they see a couple more days of higher prices. But if beef prices continue to inch higher and higher, it's likely that pork will see more consumer interest, as some will elect to find a cheaper protein. April lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $85.55, June lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $96.25 and July lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $97.55. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.63 with a weighted average price of $89.39 on 4,469 head. Pork cutouts total 258.31 loads with 230.31 loads of pork cuts and 28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.67, $95.86. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 471,000 head -- 18,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/18/2025: up $0.09, $89.41.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have largely bought up all the cash supply they need this week.