GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a mixed morning for the livestock complex as the WASDE report shared little support, but seeing both midday pork cutout values and boxed beef prices higher is encouraging. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's likely that trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday. May corn is up 2 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 494.54 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex may be trading slightly and Tuesday morning's WASDE report was lukewarm in regards to support, but boxed beef prices are just what the market wants to see. With choice cuts up over $4.00 higher and select pushing prices over $2.00 higher -- it's possible that packers could be more aggressive in this week's cash market if demand remains strong. Still no cash cattle trade has developed yet, but asking prices are noted in the countryside at $202 plus. They're still unestablished in the North. April live cattle are down $0.87 at $199.70, June live cattle are down $0.82 at $196.40 and August live cattle are down $0.62 at $194.47.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $4.74 ($322.32) and select up $2.54 ($309.49) with a movement of 66 loads (48.39 loads of choice, 6.01 loads of select, 5.49 loads of trim and 6.39 loads of ground beef).
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets for 2025. To start, beef production for 2025 was increased as heavier carcass weights more than offsets the reduction in slaughter speeds. 2025 beef production was increased by 120 million pounds to 26,685 million pounds compared to February's data. The quarterly steer price projections were a little disappointing as the first quarter was reduced to $202 (down $3.00 from last month), the second quarter was reduced to $198 (down $2.00 from last month), the third quarter remained steady at $198 and the fourth quarter remained steady at $200. Beef exports increased by 25 million pounds, but imports also increased by 105 million pounds.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Although, the live cattle complex is trading lower, the feeder cattle complex continues to trade modestly higher despite the fact that the contracts are trading at resistance levels. It is interesting to note that the furthest deferred contracts are trading with the biggest day-over-day gains, with most of the deferred months trading more than $1.00 higher. For the spot April contract to etch into new technical territory (meaning it confidently breaks through the resistance threshold at $278.00) the market will need the help of the live cattle/fed cattle market to sustain prices above that price point. March feeders are up $1.50 at $278.55, April feeders are up $0.90 at $278.82 and May feeders are up $1.32 at $279.72.
LEAN HOGS:
Although midday pork cutout values are higher, the lean hog complex is holding steady as the WASDE report wasn't overly fruitful. April lean hogs are down $1.22 at $87.07, June lean hogs are down $0.22 at $98.60 and July lean hogs are down $0.40 at $99.65. Packers were fairly aggressive this morning in the cash market, and if pork cutout values close higher this afternoon, there's a chance that the market could turn higher on Wednesday if fundamental support remains supportive.
The projected lean hog index for 3/10/2025 is down $0.01 at $89.70, and the actual index for 3/7/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.71. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.46 with a weighted average price of $89.45 ranging from $86.00 to $93.00 on 2,003 head and a five-day rolling average of $88.90. Pork cutouts total 206.29 loads with 181.30 loads of pork cuts and 24.99 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.80, $99.02.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mixed results for the pork and hog markets of 2025. 2025 pork production was decreased by 105 million pounds compared to February as processing speeds in the first quarter were lighter than anticipated. Quarterly hog prices were also slightly disappointing as hog prices in the first quarter remained steady at $62.00, but second quarter hog prices were reduced $1.00 to $65.00, third quarter hog prices were reduced $2.00 to $68.00 and fourth quarter hog prices remained steady at $56.00. 2025 pork imports were increased by 30 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 were 30 million pounds.
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