Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Traders Hit the Pause Button on the Cattle Market's Rally

 GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle contracts would like to continue their rally, but aren't comfortable doing so until traders see what comes to fruit in this week's cash cattle market. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is trading lower as traders are disgruntled with the morning's export report. May corn is up 5 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 52.31 points.

Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 10,200 mt for 2025 were down 29% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,000 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2025 -- a marketing year low -- were down 11% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and South Korea (2,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is again trading mixed as the market continues to twiddle its fingers, waiting for the cash cattle market to spring into action. Thankfully, boxed beef prices are higher, which continues to lend fundamental support while the market waits to see what the cash cattle complex does. April live cattle are down $0.15 at $206.67, June live cattle are up $0.17 at $203.02 and August live cattle are up $0.10 at $200.17. Slaughter disruptions amid blowing snow and hurricane type winds are expected again today. A note was shared earlier Thursday that at least on Eastern Regional, packers will not slaughter today or Friday, which will impact weekly throughput numbers.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.34 ($329.95) and select up $1.74 ($310.42) with a movement of 58 loads (30.90 loads of choice, 10.75 loads of select, 6.35 loads of trim and 9.85 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading mixed after the market successfully closed at new all-time highs on Wednesday afternoon. The market has plenty of fundamental support encouraging it to continue to trade higher. However, without full buy-in and support from the live cattle contracts, traders are slowing pulling up the reins on the market's relentless rally. March feeders are up $0.32 at $287.15, April feeders are up $0.07 at $286.80 and May feeders are down $0.22 at $287.27.

LEAN HOGS:

With a sorry export report, it's not surprising to see the lean hog complex again trading lower. April lean hogs are down $0.20 at $85.37, June lean hogs are down $0.80 at $95.70 and July lean hogs are down $0.67 at $97.10. From a solely fundamental sense, it is supportive to see both cash prices and pork cutout values trading higher. However, pork cutout values have been too unreliable to bank on a higher trend at this point.

The projected lean hog index for 3/19/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.20, and the actual index for 3/18/2025 is up $0.08 at $89.41. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.35 with a weighted average price of $90.40, ranging from $87.50 to $92.00 on 2,602 head with a five-day rolling average of $89.96. Pork cutouts total 139.98 loads with 120.92 loads of pork cuts and 19.06 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.27, $95.46.