GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex again closed mixed as the cattle contracts grew stronger ahead of the day's close, but the lean hog contracts still faced some pressure. Still no cash cattle trade has developed as feedlot managers hold out in hopes of higher prices. May corn is up 7 cents per bushel, and May soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 11.31 points.
Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 10,200 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were down 29% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (3,000 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan (1,200 mt). Pork net sales of 18,100 mt for 2025 -- a marketing-year low -- were down 11% from the previous week and 40% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (4,700 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and South Korea (2,300 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
At first, traders were leery to be overly supportive of the live cattle complex ahead of seeing what the cash cattle market was going to accomplish this week. But bullish optimism shined through on Thursday afternoon and helped drive the contracts higher ahead of the close. April live cattle closed $1.65 higher at $208.47, June live cattle closed $2.17 higher at $205.02 and August live cattle closed $1.75 higher at $201.82. The day's lighter slaughter largely stems from the fact that a regional packer in eastern Nebraska is not slaughtering Thursday or Friday amid the blowing snow and hurricane-strength winds that are affecting the region. That will undoubtedly affect the week's total slaughter count. But what's yet to be know is whether it will deter packers from being as aggressive in this week's market as they originally planned to be. Time will tell.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices are unavailable because of packer submission issues.
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though throughput is going to be reduced this week because of weather disruptions, it's likely that feedlot managers will elect to roll their showlists over to the next week as opposed to trade cattle for cheaper money.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Day in and day out, the feeder cattle complex continues to climb to new highs, as the market is robustly supported. From the higher close of the futures complex to the continued buyer demand being seen in the countryside, the feeder cattle market has all the support it could ever hope for. And if fed cash cattle prices do indeed trade higher on Friday, then the market really will have a near-perfect week, as things have panned out exactly as wished for. The only slight disruption that could come is if there's a surprise in Friday's March 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report. But pre-report estimates indicate that placements should be lower. March feeders closed $1.52 higher at $288.35, April feeders closed $1.72 higher at $288.45 and May feeders closed $1.60 higher at $289.10. At Hub City Livestock Auction in Aberdeen, South Dakota, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 600 to 749 pounds traded $7 to $10 higher with instances up to $15 higher, and steers weighing 750 to 949 pounds traded anywhere from steady to $7 higher. Even though the region is still dry, buyers are determined to get cattle bought before turn-out season arrives and green grass drives the prices of feeders even higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 86%. The CME feeder cattle index 3/19/2025: up $1.29, $285.94.
LEAN HOGS:
To no one's surprise, the lean hog complex did indeed close lower, as traders were disgruntled with the morning's export sales report. And although pork cutout values rounded out the day higher, traders still aren't comfortable, believing that the trend in pork demand is indeed higher now until they see a couple more days of higher prices. But if beef prices continue to inch higher and higher, it's likely that pork will see more consumer interest, as some will elect to find a cheaper protein. April lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $85.55, June lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $96.25 and July lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $97.55. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.63 with a weighted average price of $89.39 on 4,469 head. Pork cutouts total 258.31 loads with 230.31 loads of pork cuts and 28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.67, $95.86. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 471,000 head -- 18,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 3/18/2025: up $0.09, $89.41.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have largely bought up all the cash supply they need this week.
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