Thursday, March 13, 2025

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Push Higher and Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed as the cattle contracts continue to thrive and trade higher, but the lean hog complex is struggling amid a weak export sales report. No cash cattle trade has developed yet. May corn is up 7 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $8.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 423.46 points.

Thursday's export report shared beef net sales of 14,300 mt for 2025 were up 7% from the previous week, but down 13% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,600 mt), South Korea (3,000 mt) and China (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 20,300 mt for 2025 -- a marketing year low -- were down 52% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (6,300 mt), Japan (5,100 mt) and South Korea (3,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It's another glorious day for the live cattle complex as the market continues to grind higher yet again today. It continues to keep bullish tones alive and well throughout the market. The fact that choice cuts are higher again this morning and feedlot managers seem determined to push cash prices higher this week as they patiently wait for packer demand to improve without growing anxious. April live cattle are up $1.70 at $203.17, June live cattle are up $1.77 at $199.62 and August live cattle are up $1.62 at $197.10. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, but asking prices are noted in the South at $202 to $204 plus and are still not established for the North. Trade could begin to develop later this afternoon, but it's more likely that the bulk of the week's trade will be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.89 ($321.99) and select down $0.33 ($307.20) with a movement of 87 loads (50.99 loads of choice, 15.48 loads of select, 5.78 loads of trim and 15.08 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex continues to push its contracts higher and higher, which seems to signal robust buying from traders as the market's direction is undoubtedly higher due to the vast majority of the nearby contracts reaching new contract highs again today. March feeders are up $1.00 at $281.25, April feeders are up $0.82 at $281.55 and May feeders are up $1.40 at $283.15. The technical resistance plane of $278 no longer seems to post any technical pressure to ample fundamental demand.

LEAN HOGS:

Yes, morning pork cutout values may be higher, but the day's export report was rather disappointing, which seems to be the reason for the market's sharp downturn. April lean hogs are down $0.02 at $86.45, June lean hogs are down $1.77 at $96.87 and July lean hogs are down $1.55 at $98.07. Although it's positive to see pork cutout values higher, the carcass price is skewed this morning by the belly's $16.53 jump.

The projected lean hog index for 3/12/2025 is down $0.03 at $89.74, and the actual index for 3/11/2025 is up $0.07 at $89.77. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 330 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $89.80. Pork cutouts total 107.23 loads with 92.20 loads of pork cuts and 15.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.18, $98.76.





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