GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle complex closed mixed Friday afternoon as traders remained cautious ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report, but the lean hog market rallied on through the day's end. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.97 with a weighted average price of $82.42 on 1,270 head. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 377.49 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle up $0.72, October live cattle down $0.60; August feeder cattle down $3.05, September feeder cattle down $2.33; August lean hogs up $2.88, October lean hogs up $4.40; August corn up $2.88, December corn down $10.00.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex closed mixed with its spot and nearby contracts rounding out the day slightly higher but the rest of the deferred contracts closing slightly lower. The nearby contracts wanted to regain some of the footing lost in Thursday's trade, but the entire market wasn't sold on doing so ahead of seeing what the Cattle on Feed report yielded. August live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $183.10, October live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $183.47 and December live cattle closed $0.30 lower at $184.67. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $188 which is steady with last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $310 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 103,000 head -- 15,000 head less thana week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 6,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 584,000 head -- 17,000 head less than a week ago and 41,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.32 ($313.83) and select down $0.66 ($298.80) with a movement of 131 loads (102.13 loads of choice, 22.27 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.58 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers were able to buy some cattle with time, it's most likely that next week's cash market is softer.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Traders weren't going to be caught blindsided by this month's Cattle on Feed report like they were last month, which consequently led the feeder cattle complex to a lower close Friday afternoon. Thankfully this afternoon's Cattle on feed report was favorable to the feeder cattle complex as placements were down 7% compared to a year ago, which was crucial to see following last month's bigger placements. See DTN's Cattle on Feed comments here:
August feeders closed $0.62 lower at $255.60, September feeders closed $1.22 lower at $255.77 and October feeders closed $1.30 lower at $255.65.
The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to a week ago and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded steady to $3.00 lower and that steer calves sold $5.00 to $8.00 higher. Heifers traded $1.00 to $5.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $1.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 69%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/18/2024: up $0.08, $259.18.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex had a grand slam type of Friday as not only did the futures complex close higher, but pork cutout values rounded out the day on a stronger note as well. August lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $91.57, October lean hogs closed $0.52 higher at $74.55 and December lean hogs closed $1.22 higher at $66.92. What as so encouraging about the market's higher carcass price this afternoon was the fact that nearly all the cuts closed higher (expect the butt which closed steady at $113.39) but otherwise every single other cut closed somewhere between $1.00 to $4.00 higher – which shows much stronger demand than what the market has seen in recent weeks. So long as pork demand remains strong again next week the futures complex should be able to maintain its higher trend. Pork cutouts totaled 292.86 loads with 264.77 loads of pork cuts and 28.10 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.91, $102.16. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 420,000 head -- 28,000 head less than a week ago and 14,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 43,000 head. The CME lean hog index 7/17/2024: up $0.47, $89.27.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. If pork demand is going to remain this strong, packers could have to get active in the cash market as early as Monday.
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