GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a powerful day for the cattle complex as boxed beef prices rounded out the day higher and Northern trade finally cut loose and was marked at mostly $312 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. December corn is down 10 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $4.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 654.27 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle up $5.48, October live cattle up $5.08; August feeder cattle up $4.10, September feeder cattle up $3.83; August lean hogs up $1.90, October lean hogs up $3.65; September corn up $0.04, December corn up $0.05.
LIVE CATTLE:
What a week it was for the live cattle complex! Between seeing the spot October contract reach a price point in which hasn't been last tested since October 2023, to seeing boxed beef prices strength slightly, to seeing the fed cash cattle market gain $2.00 -- the live cattle market had a stellar week. Yes, some of the nearby contracts did close slightly lower, but after Thursday's powerful surge, a slightly weaker close on Friday was somewhat expected. August live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $188.57, October live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $188.55 and December live cattle closed $0.40 higher at $189.30. Some Northern trade has finally been reported at $312, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. On Thursday Southern live cattle traded at $190 which is also $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 110,000 head -- 11,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 10,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated around 600,000 head -- 16,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.31 ($313.77) and select up $2.35 ($297.46) with a movement of 101 loads (65.86 loads of choice, 12.83 loads of select, 9.02 loads of trim and 13.48 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that this week's market traded higher, packers will likely try to work prices lower next week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was promising to see the feeder cattle complex keep with its upward trend through Friday's close as the market leaned into its own fundamental support and maintained its positive position above both the 40-day and 100-day moving averages. August feeders closed $1.07 higher at $259.70, September feeders closed $1.70 higher at $259.60 and October feeders closed $1.22 higher at $258.30. But between seeing the fed cash cattle market trade higher in late July, to seeing demand in the countryside remain incredibly strong despite temperatures being hot, the market had little reason to trade lower. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state steer calves sold $2.00 to $6.00 higher and feeder heifers sold $2.00 to $4.00 higher. Heifer calves traded $2.00 to $4.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold steady to $1.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $1.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 63%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/25/2024: down $0.22, $258.84.
LEAN HOGS:
Even though pork cutout values closed slightly lower, the lean hog complex was able to round out the day mostly higher as traders merely let the market chop sideways ahead of the day's end. All in all, it was a powerful week for the lean hog complex as the market gained substantial ground technically and was empowered mostly by the market's uptick in seasonal demand from consumers. Traders are hoping that pork demand remains strong next week which could allow for the futures complex to potentially keep with its upward trend if traders are willing to take on the market's current resistance plane around $78.00. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.38 with a weighted average price of $82.13 on 1,045 head. Pork cutouts totaled 262.83 loads with 236.83 loads of pork cuts and 26.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.78, $105.17. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 438,000 head -- 18,000 head more than a week ago and 21,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/24/2024: up $0.62, $91.39.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers didn't pay much attention to the cash complex late in the week, it's likely that they'll need to be aggressive early next week in the cash sector.
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