GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a hem-haw, lackadaisical Monday for the livestock complex as all three markets closed lower and saw very little trader interest throughout the day. No bids or asking prices are noted yet for the cash cattle market. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.43 with a weighted average price of $88.74 on 936 head. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 50.66 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex closed mixed as traders know that this week's cash cattle market is going to be slow to develop and tough to pin-point in terms of price direction. On the one hand you can say that prices should be steady to somewhat higher as showlists are extremely current and with boxed beef prices continuing to print higher that packer interest should remain strong. But on the other hand, it is a holiday week and there's rumor that a major packing plant will be down most of the week as it has a roof issue. Time will tell, but holiday weeks can be odd and difficult to manage for the cattle complex. August live cattle closed $1.15 lower at $184.27, October live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $184.15 and December live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $185.55. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas and Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- steady with a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.
Last week most of the market's trade waited to develop until Friday, where Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $312, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded for mostly $190, which is about steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 68,879 head. Of that, 72% (49,259 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 28% (19,620 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.86 ($329.18) and select up $1.91 ($306.41) with a movement of 98 loads (48.45 loads of choice, 20.23 loads of select, 11.21 loads of trim and 18.52 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that the board is down and that it is a holiday week, feedlot managers will probably be lucky to keep the market steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex closed substantially lower as the market knows that this week's trade is likely going to be slow going in nature, and lacking in demand and direction as most sale barns are taking the week off in observation of Independence Day holiday, and as most traders are enjoying some time off too. August feeders closed $1.92 lower at $257.37, September feeders closed $1.70 lower at $257.95 and October feeders closed $1.82 lower at $258.17. The CME feeder cattle index proved to us last week that demand in the countryside for feeders/calves remains extremely strong, and that it's likely that the board's uneasiness stems from a lack of trader confidence -- not from a lack of fundamental support. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week feeders traded steady to $4.00 higher, but feeder heifers sold $10.00 lower to $4.00 higher. With summer temperatures starting to get hot, weaned and vaccinated cattle were in much more demand than non-worked cattle were. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 71%. The CME feeder cattle index 6/28/2024: down $3.00, $255.60.
LEAN HOGS:
With pork cutout values rounding out the day lower and traders showing little interest in the livestock complex – the lean hog contracts had virtually no hope of rounding out the day higher. July lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $89.20, August lean hogs closed $1.32 lower at $88.17 and October lean hogs closed $1.62 lower at $74.10. The afternoon carcass price was dropped lower as the vast majority of the cuts closed lower -- but it was the belly's $6.41 decline that endured the biggest fall of the day. Pork cutouts totaled 278.07 loads with 207.64 loads of pork cuts and 70.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.48, $95.41. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 477,000 head -- 14,000 head more than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/27/2024: down $0.28, $89.47.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Given that it is a holiday shortened week packers' interest in the cash market will likely be minimal this week.
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