GENERAL COMMENTS:
Even though pork cutout values and boxed beef prices closed higher, traders weren't willing to even consider trading the livestock contracts higher through Monday's market. There's a chance that Tuesday's complex stands a better fight at trading higher as traders will likely reassess the marketplace and give more credit to the market's strong fundamentals.
Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.18 with a weighted average price of $90.63 on 2,518 head. December corn is down 16 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $11.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 31.08 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex sank lower throughout the day as traders simply weren't willing to acknowledge any of the market's strong fundamental power. Last week the five-area average steer price was $197.09, which is $1.28 higher than the previous week and is the highest in history -- but even so, traders weren't willing to bite into the market's strong fundamental momentum and trade the contracts higher, so cautiousness led the market to its lower end. August live cattle closed $2.07 lower at $184.35, October live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $185.30 and December live cattle closed $1.52 lower at $187.25. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago. New showlists appear to be somewhat higher in Nebraska/Colorado, and higher in Kansas and Texas.
Last week the cash cattle market waited to trade until Friday and Southern live cattle traded for mostly $190 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $314, which is also steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 51,223 head. Of that 77% (39,211 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 23% (12,012 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.04 ($330.47) and select down $0.34 ($304.72) with a movement of 89 loads (51.85loads of choice, 21.34 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 15.88 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With packers fighting to be profitable with where the cash cattle market is currently trading, it's likely that the try to push prices lower this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though the nearby corn contracts closed $0.15 to $0.17 lower, the feeder cattle complex wasn't able to capitalize on the decline in corn prices as the live cattle market's attitude was cautious which spilled over to the feeder cattle complex and ultimately affected its market too. From a solely fundamental standpoint, the feeder cattle market "should have" traded higher today as both Superior Livestock Auction and Western Video Market hosted online video sales today and of the lots that I watched sell, prices were incredibly strong and buyer demand was anything but weak and cautious. August feeders closed $2.30 lower at $259.17, September feeders closed $1.60 lower at $260.62 and October feeders closed $1.50 lower at $260.72. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers were selling $2.00 to $9.00 higher with some light five-weight steers being $15.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 800 pounds were selling $5.00 to $9.00 higher with heavier heifers selling $2.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 84%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/5/2024: up $3.21, $258.29.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex rounded out the day mostly lower as even though pork cutout values closed higher, traders remained leery market participants. August lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $89.52, October lean hogs closed $0.95 lower at $72.52 and December lean hogs closed $1.55 lower at $65.72. The lean hog market's fundamentals were strong today as both cash prices and pork cutout values closed higher, but even so, the Monday jitters overpowered traders and ultimately pushed the market to its lower decline. There's a possibility that traders could be more open to supporting the market by Tuesday with strong market fundamentals working in its favor. Pork cutouts total 267.23 loads with 233.58 loads of pork cuts and 33.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.08, $95.99. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/4/2024: not available at this time.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers were fairly aggressive in Monday's market, it's likely that they're short bought and could be in need of more hogs and again support Tuesday's market.
No comments:
Post a Comment