GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the hog sector rallied through Thursday's end, but technical pressure sent both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts lower through the day's close. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.31 with a weighted average price of $85.39 on 3,595 head. December corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 533.06 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,400 mt for 2024 were up 85% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were China (4,700 mt), Mexico (2,700 mt) and Japan (2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 23,700 mt for 2024 were down 11% from the previous week and 35% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (8,500 mt), Japan (3,000 mt) and China (2,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a rough day for the live cattle complex as not only did the futures market give back what Wednesday's trade scrapped for, but the board's lower trend panicked some Northern feedlots into selling their dressed cattle for $310, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. And to make matters even worse, there were a lot of cattle committed for the weeks of July 29th and even all the way out until the first week in August. Depending on how many cattle packers end up getting bought with time, the cash market could see greater pressure in the weeks ahead packers were able to buy a sizeable volume with time. August live cattle closed $2.02 lower at $182.25, October live cattle closed $2.55 lower at $183.02 and December live cattle closed $2.32 lower at $184.97. The live cattle complex will likely continue to trade lower through Friday's end as tomorrow there will be another Cattle on Feed report shared and on-feed totals are expected to exceed year ago levels, which would add more pressure to the complex.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $2.01 ($316.15) and select up $1.02 ($299.46) with a movement of 174 loads (107.31 loads of choice, 29.38 loads of select, 9.33 loads of trim and 27.66 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, it's likely that the week's prices are set at $196 live in the South and $310 dressed in the North.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle market fell right in line with the live cattle market's lower ascend as technical pressure grew stronger as the day traded on. August feeders closed $2.32 lower at $256.22, September feeders closed $2.55 lower at $257.00 and October feeders closed $2.45 lower at $256.95. Unfortunately, today's lower close now has the spot August contract trading below its 100-day and 40-day moving average, which signals cautionary tones to traders. The CME feeder cattle index 7/17/2024: down $2.06, $259.26.
LEAN HOGS:
The cattle complex may have suffered through Thursday's trade, but the lean hog complex maintained its higher trend throughout the day and closed on a stronger note. It's impressive that again this afternoon cash prices, cutout values and the futures market all closed higher -- signaling well rounded support for the market. The carcass price was well support as the belly jumped $3.53, the butt jumped $2.94, and the ham closed $2.08 higher -- all helping to contribute to the carcass price's higher end. August lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $91.37, October lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $74.02 and December lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $65.70. Pork cutouts totaled 303.21 loads with 253.52 loads of pork cuts and 49.69 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.93, $100.25. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head -- steady with last week and 1,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/16/2024: down $0.18, $88.80.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers are showing that they're still needing some hogs even late into the week.
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