GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was an exciting day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets traded higher thanks to the added support of the cash cattle market, and upon seeing boxed beef prices print higher. Some light trade has been reported in the South at $190 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but still no dressed trade has developed. December corn is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $8.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 81.20 points.
Thursday's export sales report shared that beef net sales of 13,400 metric tons (mt) for 2024 were down 13% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (4,400 mt), Japan (2,200 mt) and China (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 30,200 mt for 2024 were up 28% from the previous week but down 19% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (7,700 mt), South Korea (6,400 mt) and Japan (4,500 mt).
Thursday's Cold Storage report shared that total red meat supplies in freezers were down 2% from the previous month and down 2% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 3% from the previous month and down slightly from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 2% from the previous month and down 3% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were down 16% from last month and down 14% from last year.
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a stellar day for the live cattle complex as the spot October contract closed at its highest price point since last October, boxed beef prices saw some better consumer interest and cash prices in the South were noted at $190 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. It's extremely encouraging that the cash cattle market was able to see prices trend higher than a week ago which leads to the logical question of: Are packers shorter bought than assumed? Last week's Cattle on Feed report shared that the country has more cattle on feed than compared to a year ago, but the cash cattle market seems to be telling a different story as packers and feedlot managers are going head-to-hear nearly each and every week. August live cattle closed $2.00 higher at $188.90, October live cattle closed $2.32 higher at $188.60 and December live cattle closed $1.62 higher at $188.90. No trades have been reported yet in the North, but with the Southern plains able to push prices $2.00 higher, steady trade should be their "worst-case-scenario".
Thursday's slaughter totaled 120,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.22 ($312.46) and select up $1.15 ($295.11) with a movement of 131 loads (77.17 loads of choice, 29.58 loads of select, 6.79 loads of trim and 17.21 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. With Southern feedlots able to push the cash market $2.00 higher, it's anyone's guess at this point what the North's cash market will be able to pull off, but higher trade isn't out of the question.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex rallied all throughout Thursday's trade as traders were well supported by the market's higher note in the fed cash cattle sector, and by the live cattle market's higher close. August feeders closed $1.50 higher at $258.62, September feeders closed $1.20 higher at $257.90 and October feeders closed $0.70 higher at $257.07. From a technical standpoint it was exciting to see the market (the spot August contract) close above its 40-day and 100-day moving averages which has been a resistance level that the market has struggled with as of late. At Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week steers and heifers weighing 400 to 950 pounds sold $7.00 to $10.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 lower, and slaughter bulls traded steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 90%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/24/2024: up $0.67, $259.06.
LEAN HOGS:
Even though pork cutout values closed higher, and the morning's export report was fairly supportive, the lean hog complex endured some technical exhaustion on Thursday. The nearby contracts closed slightly lower but the deferred contracts in 2025 where able to keep their higher tone through closing. It's likely that traders want to reassess their immediate direction and probably won't drastically do anything with the complex ahead of next week. August lean hogs closed steady at $93.77, October lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $77.80 and December lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $69.95. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.79 with a weighted average price of $84.51 on 3,165 head. Pork cutouts totaled 304.18 loads with 271.80 loads of pork cuts and 32.38 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.19, $105.95. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 475,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 16,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/23/2024: down $0.69, $90.77.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely show the hog complex much support on Friday which will likely be the case again this week.
No comments:
Post a Comment