GENERAL COMMENTS:
The live cattle contracts were trading higher earlier Tuesday, but with the onset of weaker boxed beef prices, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are now trading fully lower. It's likely the market will continue with this trend through closing as demand remains a top priority in gauging fundamental support. December corn is up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 25.28 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex was trading mostly higher, but as soon as traders saw that midday boxed beef prices were lower, the market's tone and sentiment sank immediately. August live cattle are down $2.32 at $182.12, October live cattle are down $2.35 at $182.90 and December live cattle are down $2.60 at $184.72. You can't draw too many conclusions out of one day's worth of trade, but one does have to wonder if Tuesday's decline in beef prices means the seasonal high is in and prices are going to drift lower for a while? Still no developments have surfaced in the cash market, and trade isn't expected to develop until Thursday at the very earliest. Bids and asking prices remain unestablished.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.87 ($325.60) and select down $1.69 ($303.03) with a movement of 71 loads (29.70 loads of choice, 22.93 loads of select, 9.03 loads of trim and 9.24 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though corn prices are mostly steady, the feeder cattle complex is again trading mostly lower as traders remain lackadaisical market participants and won't want to be overly ambitious while the live cattle contracts are trading lower. August feeders are up $0.30 at $259.47, September feeders are down $0.20 at $260.42 and October feeders are down $0.32 at $260.40. I believe the spot August contract is seeing slightly better demand as traders can't help but acknowledge the added support from the cash market's trade as buyers continue to procure feeder calves aggressively, which is evidenced by the CME Feeder Cattle Index closing $3.21 higher Monday afternoon at $258.29.
LEAN HOGS:
Even though pork cutout values closed higher Monday afternoon, the lean hog complex is again trading lower as traders are desperate to see consistent support from consumers as opposed to the flip-flop closes the market has been seeing. August lean hogs are down $0.65 at $88.87, October lean hogs are down $1.20 at $71.32 and December lean hogs are down $1.20 at $64.52. Until the market sees better domestic support, it's likely the futures complex will continue to trade in its current sideways trading range.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 7/8/2024 is down $0.33 at $88.43 and the actual index for 7/5/2024 is down $0.44 at $88.76. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $2.59 with a weighted average price of $89.32, ranging from $77.00 to $91.00 on 2,653 head and a five-day rolling average of $89.43. Pork cutouts total 147.67 loads with 124.85 loads of pork cuts and 22.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.44, $95.55.
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