GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a disappointing day for the cattle complex, as the boxed beef market softened, which sent traders into a tizzy and led both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets to a lower close. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex lacked trader interest and support, but did see better packer interest in the cash market. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.09 with a weighted average price of $90.72 on 14,177 head. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 52.82 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
And just like that, the live cattle market has nearly turned on a dime, as traders have noted the decline in boxed beef prices and have sent the futures contracts trading in the same direction. August live cattle closed $2 lower at $182.35, October live cattle closed $2 lower at $183.30 and December live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $185.37. It's appearing as though the boxed beef market has made its seasonal top and that now it's time for the dog days of summer to begin. The cash cattle market will likely be pressured to trade lower this week, as well, as packers won't be nearly as willing to support the cash market if box prices are dwindling. Bids of $188 are already noted in the South, but still no cattle have traded. Asking prices are noted at $190 in the South but remain unestablished still in the North.
Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.81 ($325.66) and select down $0.41 ($304.31) with a movement of 130 loads (66.04 loads of choice, 39.89 loads of select, 11.97 loads of trim and 12.49 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With boxed beef prices slipping, the cash cattle market will be pressed to keep prices steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex fell dramatically as traders took one quick look at the live cattle market and its reaction to the onset of weaker boxed beef prices and pulled the plug on the feeder cattle contracts. August feeders closed $3.45 lower at $255.72, September feeders closed $3.80 lower at $256.82 and October feeders closed $3.52 lower at $257.20. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers over 800 pounds sold steady to $2 higher, and steers under 800 pounds traded $3 to $5 lower. Feeder heifers sold steady to $3 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold unevenly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME feeder cattle index 7/8/2024: down $0.96, $257.33.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed lower as the market simply lacked the necessary support needed to attract trader interest. But the market's fundamentals are worth noting. Just like last week, it was shocking to see that packers bought over 14,000 head in the cash market, but with slaughter speeds running aggressively, packers are beginning to have to pull on the cash market more than before. Unfortunately, pork cutout values weren't helpful Tuesday, as the carcass price fell $2.24 lower, which was pushed mainly by the $5.45 decline in the butt and the $4.18 decline in the belly. August lean hogs closed $1.12 lower at $88.40, October lean hogs closed $1.75 lower at $70.77, and December lean hogs closed $1.90 lower at $63.82. Pork cutouts totaled 311.47 loads with 266.80 loads of pork cuts and 44.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.24, $93.75. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 476,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 7/5/2024: down $0.44, $88.76. The CME lean hog index 7/5/2024: down $0.44, $88.76.
WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers are obviously in need of hogs, which could keep Wednesday's prices at least steady.
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