Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Tumble Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures gave back all of Wednesday's gains and more, with active price pressure seen in all live cattle and feeder cattle contracts. Feeder cattle futures were most impacted with May contracts trading nearly $5 per cwt lower at the end of the session. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.21 with a weighted average of $87.67 on 3,580 hogs. May corn closed down 1/4 at $4.575 and May soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $288.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,679.39 at 40,545.93.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures offset any momentum seen midweek with traders aggressively pushing prices lower as limited buyer activity developed given tariff uncertainty. The active buyer support over the past couple of months has left nearby live cattle futures in an interesting position. Even though fundamental beef demand is expected to remain firm through the summer months, and traders are not totally soured on the cattle market, with current price levels, traders at these price levels are becoming spooked much more easily. This is allowing for prices to develop the significant market shifts seen this week. Momentum is the biggest factor in market direction at this moment, and as seen over the past two days, it can easily shift and move the market in both directions. Cash cattle markets have developed some light trade is being reported in parts of Nebraska, Majors are paying $335 to $338 (the higher end is on special types), while a Regional has paid $345. Southern bids are at $208, which is well below current asking prices of around $212. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses. In the morning release of the weekly export sales report, net sales of 9,300 MT for 2025 were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (2,600 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Hong Kong (800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (200 MT). Exports of 14,900 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT). April live cattle closed $2.33 lower at $208.05, June live cattle closed $2.70 lower at $204.70 and August live cattle closed $2.75 lower at $201.175. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 2,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.53 ($338.37) and select down $0.99 ($317.84) with a movement of 131.32 loads (91.79 loads of choice, 15.50 loads of select, 7.99 loads of trim and 16.04 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. With a few cash sales starting to develop, cash activity early Friday morning will likely be generally steady and overall muted. Packers and feeders are expected to wait to see how markets open Friday to get a better sense of overall market direction given the recent yo-yo effect seen in futures prices.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures led the complex lower Thursday with traders quickly focusing on the overall lack of uncertainty surrounding overall long-term demand given the aggressive price pressure in financial markets and implications that tariffs may have in the months to come. May contracts led the complex lower, closing $4.80 per cwt lower. Even with this latest market shift lower, nearby contracts are still fundamentally in an upward market trend given the recent optimism and buyer support. April feeders closed $3.48 lower at $285.4, May feeders closed $4.80 lower at $283.125 and August feeders closed $4.40 lower at $289.3. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for April 1: up $0.66, $291.93.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures ended the session weaker Thursday, but given the aggressive losses in both cattle trade and the stock market, the downward market pressure could have been much more significant. Spot April futures fell only 7.5 cents per cwt, becoming by far the most stable contract in livestock markets Thursday. More active pressure was seen in other nearby lean hog trade, with losses in May through August contracts now pushing price levels below the 40-day moving average. But the recent pressure in lean hog prices over the last month is likely to limit aggressive short-term pressure without solid news of demand shifts in the pork market. According to the weekly export sales report, net sales of 53,000 MT for 2025--a marketing-year high--were up 66 percent from the previous week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (10,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Colombia (1,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 32,900 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,200 MT), South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,700 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT). April lean hogs closed $0.08 lower at $87.375, May lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $88.575 and June lean hogs closed $0.98 lower at $95.55. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head, 1,000 head less than a week ago and 0 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 347.75 loads with 305.60 loads of pork cuts and 42.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.11 at $94.81. The CME Lean Hog Index for April 1: up $0.15, $88.80.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Initial bids are expected generally stable Friday morning. There remains uncertainty surrounding outside market direction and tariff implications, but it is uncertain if these shifts will impact short-term cash values at the end of the week.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Outside Market Pressure May Push Futures Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures extended the gains Wednesday with the April through October live cattle contracts closing at new highs. Feeder cattle followed a similar pattern with the August and later contracts closing at new highs. Cattle futures have been impressive as demand has remained strong and cattle supplies remain tight. Futures are expected to trade lower Thursday due to the impact of the tariff announcement on Wednesday, resulting in substantial pressure on the overnight equity markets. It is difficult to determine the impact, but there is fear that a trade war could escalate, increasing prices for food and other goods. Cash cattle have not yet traded this week, with some offers posted $2.00 higher than last week. Boxed beef declined with choice down $2.32 and select down $3.24.

Hog futures closed mixed Wednesday, rebounding from earlier lows. Futures were mixed with some light spread trading. Traders seemed more cautious over the potential impact of tariffs on international pork demand. Packers were more aggressive as they stepped up to increase ownership of hogs. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report increased $0.62 with a weighted average of $88.88. There is a strong possibility they need more hogs and will pay more Thursday. Pork cutouts did not fare well as prices declined $1.81. Some pressure might be seen on futures due to the outside pressure from other markets in response to the tariffs, but there may not be as much impact as traders have been cautious over the past month.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New highs in cattle futures are a testimony to the market's resilience and continued consumer demand.	1)	Outside market pressure in response to tariffs may trigger substantial selling in cattle futures.
2)	The feedlots may be determined to receive at least steady money for cash this week, gaining confidence due to the strong futures market.	2)	Packers may not be willing to pay more for cattle as export demand has been slowing. The weekly export sales report is expected to show lower sales.
3)	Hog futures continue to hold support with buying interest on price weakness. Pork demand should remain steady or increase over time.	3)	Hog weights continue to increase with the weekly average reaching 291.4 pounds, up 0.7 pounds from the previous week and up 4.3 pounds from a year ago.
4)	Increasing tariffs on many items will tighten consumers' budgets. Buying habits will change, and pork may be a recipient due to value.	4)	Lower cutouts and outside market pressure due to the implementation of tariffs might push hog futures lower.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Retract on Tariff Concerns

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Sharp losses in cattle futures have stolen the overall attention of all livestock markets Thursday. Active losses in financial markets -- highlighted by a 1,200 to 1,500 point loss in the Dow Jones Index -- have kept most traders extremely cautious to say the least. Cattle futures remain sharply lower with triple-digit losses across the board, while lean hog futures are mixed to mostly lower, but with much less market volatility. May corn is up 2 1/2 at $4.603 and May soybean meal is up $2.30 at $289.5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1,140.14 at 41,085.18.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have given back all midweek gains and even more as trade and tariff concerns rocking financial markets are having a significant impact on livestock trade and the cattle market specifically. All nearby and most deferred live cattle contracts are trading between $2 and $3 per cwt lower, with April futures hovering at $208 per cwt following a $2.12 per cwt loss. Selling pressure has continued to develop through the morning, which may lead to additional pressure leading into closing bell. Cash cattle markets remain generally quiet, although a few more bids are now on the table. In Nebraska, major packers are bidding $335, while a regional packer has bid $345. Asking prices in the North are still not well established. Southern bids are at $208, which is well below current asking prices of around $212. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses, but significant trade volume may be delayed until later Thursday or Friday. Thursday morning's export sales report showed net sales of 9,300 metric tons (mt) for 2025, up 16% from the previous week, but down 19% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (3,400 mt, including decreases of 500 mt), Japan (2,600 mt, including decreases of 800 mt), Hong Kong (800 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Mexico (600 mt, including decreases of 100 mt, and China (500 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), were offset by reductions for Indonesia (200 mt). Exports of 14,900 mt were up 6% from the previous week and 2% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (5,200 mt), Japan (3,300 mt), China (2,500 mt), Mexico (1,100 mt), and Taiwan (1,100 mt). April live cattle are $1.95 lower at $208.425, June live cattle are $2.48 lower at $204.925, August live cattle are $2.63 lower at $201.30. 

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.43 ($340.33) and select down $0.02 ($318.81) with a movement of 51.28 loads (34.82 loads of choice, 9.88 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.58 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are leading the market lower with the general pressure on all cattle trade Thursday morning. The market has additional concerns about these newly instated tariffs will impact not only short-term trade and buying decisions, but also long-term market activity. The focus on overall economic health continues to be weighed heavily on overall cattle trade which may have a longer-term impact on overall beef demand. April feeders are $3.50 lower at $285.375, May feeders are $4.15 lower at $283.775 and August feeders are $3.93 lower at $289.775.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures are trading mostly lower as the general market tone Thursday remains weak. But compared to the rest of the livestock trade, lean hog futures seem to have worked most of the tariff and demand concerns into the complex. With nearby contracts trading in the bottom half of short-term market levels, it is uncertain just how much more active selling pressure will develop given the current fundamental market support. According to the weekly export sales report, net sales of 53,000 mt for 2025 -- a marketing-year high -- were up 66% from the previous week and 88% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,600 mt, including decreases of 300 mt), China (10,300 mt, including decreases of 100 mt), Japan (3,400 mt, including decreases of 300 mt), South Korea (3,000 mt, including decreases of 500 mt), and Colombia (1,800 mt, including decreases of 200 mt). Exports of 32,900 mt were up 4% from the previous week and 1% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,200 mt), South Korea (5,200 mt), Japan (4,100 mt, China (2,700 mt), and Colombia (2,300 mt). April lean hogs are $0.28 higher at $87.725, May lean hogs are $0.60 lower at $88.525 and June lean hogs are $1.00 lower at $95.525. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $1.62 with a weighted average of $87.34, ranging from $84.00 to $89.00 on 2,899 head with a five-day rolling average of $88.28. Pork cutouts totaled 157.32 loads with 139.89 loads of pork cuts and 17.43 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.96 at $91.96.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Surge Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures rallied higher once again, with strong triple-digit gains seen in April through August contracts. This move helped push spot month April contracts above $210 per cwt, once again setting contract highs for the complex. Traders continue to aggressively focus on beef market support, which is helping to firm the livestock complex. But much less aggressive support was seen in deferred live cattle and feeder cattle trade. While lean hog futures eroded during midweek trade. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $0.62 with a weighted average of $88.88 on 7,996 hogs. May corn closed down 4 at $4.578 and May soybean meal closed down $5.10 at $287.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 235.36 at 42,225.32.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle prices posted triple-digit gains Wednesday with April through August contracts leading the upward market shift midweek. April futures have not surpassed $210 per cwt, setting another contract high at $210.37 per cwt. The aggressive market shift higher has increased spot April futures $18 per cwt over the last month, helping to rekindle technical buyer support through the complex. June contract led the market higher with gains of nearly $2 per cwt, but the support seemed to be much less aggressive through the last half of 2025, although prices still were able to close higher Wednesday. Cash cattle markets remain quiet with just a few asking prices noted around $212 in the South, but they are still not established in the North. Bids continue to be very hard to find. Significant trade volume will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. The inability of feeders to command steady to higher prices at the end of the week if futures markets hold strong would be disappointing heading into the first trade week of April. April live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $210.375, June live cattle closed $1.98 higher at $207.4 and August live cattle closed $1.60 higher at $203.925. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.32 ($339.9) and select down $3.24 ($318.83) with a movement of 114.51 loads (74.10 loads of choice, 16.88 loads of select, 14.98 loads of trim and 8.55 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Very limited cash market activity has developed at this point, which is creating some uncertainty about the ability of feeders to demand steady to higher prices at the end of the week. If futures prices continue to move higher, anything less than steady money will be viewed as a significant disappointment. There is still some uncertainty about how many cattle packers need to access this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures followed the live cattle complex higher Wednesday with light to moderate buyer support seen through most of the complex. Nearby contracts seemed little impressed through most of the session with the triple-digit gains in live cattle futures, although late 2025 contract months were more influenced by the optimism seen in the complex. The uncertainty of short-term economic issues is being focused on near-term buyer interest and activity, and for now, trades seem to be less concerned about pressure in the beef market through the middle of 2026. This may continue to add premium to deferred contracts through the remainder of the spring. April feeders closed $0.60 higher at $288.875, May feeders closed $0.78 higher at $287.925 and August feeders closed $1.30 higher at $293.7. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for March 31: up $0.25, $291.27.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures ended the session Wednesday mostly lower. But limited buyer support in April contracts pulled the complex from posting a fully red board as April contracts closed 7.5 cents per cwt higher. This move is not likely significant long term, but the fact that the slight end-of-day support held prices from moving below the 40-day moving average is creating a sense of stability for the time being. The rest of the complex remained under light to moderate pressure. Even though summer contracts slid lower, the fact that prices moved off of session lows is helping to create a small sense of stability through the complex. April lean hogs closed $0.08 higher at $87.45, May lean hogs closed $0.35 lower at $89.125 and June lean hogs closed $0.50 lower at $96.525. Wednesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 332.17 loads with 307.56 loads of pork cuts and 24.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $1.81 at $93.7. The CME Lean Hog Index for March 31: up $0.15, $88.65.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Early cash hog bids are expected generally steady Thursday morning. The lack of aggressive market losses late Wednesday in futures trade is likely to keep cash values generally stable at least until buyers get a feeling for market moves through the last half of the week.