Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Southern Cattle Trade $1.00 Higher, Dressed Cattle Trade Steady

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex traded mostly lower into Thursday's close while the hog complex rallied. Sales developed Thursday afternoon in the cash cattle market and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $188 ($1.00 higher than last week's weighted average) and Northern dressed sales were marked at mostly $296 (steady with last week's weighted average). December corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 161.35 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though the cash cattle market was able to trade steady to $1.00 higher, traders let the complex close mixed. One could point to the boxed beef market's momentum coupled with the cash cattle market's ability to hold prices steady this week and argue that the board "should" have been able to close mildly higher. But, given the fact that traders continue to worry about the complex being over-bought, steady trade in the cash cattle market wasn't enough of a fundamental gust to push the futures complex higher. October live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $186.62, December live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $186.17 and February live cattle closed steady at $186.97. Throughout the day Northern dressed cattle traded at $296 which is steady with last week's weighted average and Northern live cattle traded at $187 to mostly $188 which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left to sell remain firm in the South at $189 to $190, and in the North at $298 plus. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.13 ($319.26) and select up $1.15 ($293.52) with a movement of 143 loads (98.12 loads of choice, 20.90 loads of select, 7.41 loads of trim and 16.77 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that trade has now developed in both regions, it's likely that prices remain steady with the week's trend for any more cattle that sell this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rounded out the day mixed as the market's nearby contracts were mildly supported through the day's close thanks to the continued support of aggressive buyer demand in the countryside for feeders and by the steady trade in the fed cash cattle market. October feeders closed $0.62 higher at $246.72, November feeders closed $0.25 higher at $245.75 and January feeders closed $0.22 higher at $243.12. And with Tuesday's sharp decline, the spot November feeder cattle contract is again below its 100-day moving average and far from resistance which gives traders more room to trade higher without coming up against technical resistance. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming, compared to last week feeder steers traded $5.00 to $11.00 higher and feeder heifers traded steady. Steer and heifer calves also saw the same trend as they traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher as well. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 44%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/16/2024: up $0.78, $250.25.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was the only livestock market to successfully round out the day higher as traders were elated to see strong consumer support in the form of higher pork cutout values. The belly did close sharply higher (up $5.65) but every single cut close higher besides the rib which all helped continue to the carcass's higher end. Hopefully, traders see continued demand from Friday's export sales report at which point the board may be able to maintain its higher trend. December lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $77.67, February lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $81.55 and April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $85.12. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.28 with a weighted average price of $76.15 on 870 head. Pork cutouts totaled 291.01 loads with 263.29 loads of pork cuts and 27.73 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.56, $96.41. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/15/2024: down $0.23, $83.85.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With packers showing virtually no interest in Thursday's cash market, it's likely that they again show little interest in Friday's market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Bids Surface

GENERAL COMMENTS:

A weaker undertone is noted throughout the livestock complex as once again; traders are tapping their toes waiting to see what develops in a fundamental sense. Bids are currently on the table for the cash cattle market, but there's been very little trade report yet. Feedlot managers are hoping to keep the market at least steady this week but asking prices in the South are noted at $189 to $190 and in the North at $298 plus. December corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $2.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 125.88 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mixed as some of the market's deferred contracts are trading slightly higher, but the nearby contracts are trending slightly lower as the week's cash cattle market has yet to be established. There are bids of $187 live currently being offered in the South and dressed bids of $296 in the North. Asking prices are noted in the South at $189 to $190, and in the North at $298 plus. Feedlot managers are hoping to keep prices fully steady this week, as they know that pushing prices higher following packers' ability to get some cattle bought with time last week is somewhat unlikely. October live cattle are down $0.20 at $186.85, December live cattle are down $0.27 at $186.32 and February live cattle are up $0.15 at $187.12.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.69 ($319.82) and select up $1.78 ($294.15) with a movement of 72 loads (41.13 loads of choice, 13.47 loads of select, 5.42 loads of trim and 11.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As the market nears Thursday's noon hour, the feeder cattle complex is trading mixed with the market's nearby contacts trading slightly higher as demand in the countryside is phenomenal. However, the deferred contracts remain cautious as the live cattle market is trading lower and we've yet to see what the fed cash cattle market is going to do this week. October feeders are up $0.50 at $246.60, November feeders are up $0.12 at $24562 and January feeders are down $0.17 at $243.17. Unless the live cattle market turns fully higher, it's likely that feeders will round out the day with this weaker tone.

LEAN HOGS:

After running up against resistance levels again on Wednesday, the lean hog complex is back to trading mostly lower as traders have found the fundamental support they're looking for. If traders are to take on the market's resistance and break through that threshold, they're going to need to see more domestic demand from consumers, and seeing better packer demand in the cash market would be helpful too. And even though pork cutout values are higher at today's noon hour, demand hasn't been stable enough for trader's liking this week. Some of the nearby contracts are trading slightly higher, but the vast majority of the complex is lower and skeptical. December lean hogs are up $0.05 at $77.75, February lean hogs are up $0.35 at $81.42 and April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $85.02.

The projected lean hog index for 10/16/2024 is unavailable, but we can however see that the actual index for 10/15/2024 is down $0.23 at $83.85. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Moring Hog Report, down $2.41 with a weighted average price of $75.71, ranging from $69.00 to $77.00 on 478 head and five-day rolling average of $77.66. Pork cutouts total 186.67 loads with 143.03 loads of pork cuts and 25.64 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.23, $97.08.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Futures Poised To Retest Highs

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There was no cash trading activity in cattle Wednesday and none was expected. Futures tried to turn higher but slipped lower in most contracts. It seemed traders were uncertain about higher cash this week. However, the continued strength of boxed beef may require packers to increase bids to purchase cattle. The packers cannot ignore the fact demand is good and needs to be met. Feedlots have posted offers in the South at higher prices and may be able to achieve those prices. Boxed beef was higher with choice up $2.30 and select up $0.28. The feedlots may increase their resolve to hold another week, knowing packers cannot afford strong demand and the need to increase the slaughter pace. The demand for feeder cattle remains strong with tighter supplies and the desire to maintain cattle numbers on ranches and feedlots.

Hogs did an about-face on Wednesday, even though there has not been huge support from cash and cutouts. Trader optimism remains bullish. The December, February, and April contracts reversed the losses of earlier in the week and are poised to move to new highs and possibly test the contract highs. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.63. Pork cutouts gained $0.45. The December contract may move to narrow the gap it had to where the October contract expired. There may be a little headwind Thursday as cash is expected to be lower. The strong slaughter pace and the hog numbers seemingly not out there which had been expected are keeping support under the market. Weekly export sales will be released on Friday. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 197,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Boxed beef prices continue to improve, indicating strong demand. Packers need to maintain or increase the slaughter pace to meet that demand.	1)	Feedlots may need to move cattle they have been holding for the past two weeks in the hopes of higher cash prices. If the packers hold the line on cash this week, cattle will be sold at no better than steady money.
2)	Cattle futures may have corrected sufficiently to relieve the overbought status of the market. Traders may feel more confident buying back into the market.	2)	Each time cattle futures rallied after a large price correction, the highs were lower. The recent weakness may indicate another large price correction is underway.
3)	Hogs reversed the losses of early this week and are now poised to move above resistance and test contract highs.	3)	Hog futures show more optimism than what underlying cash is dictating. Cash and cutouts will need to improve or a large price correction may occur.
4)	The packers have not been very aggressive so far this week and may need to step up during the second half of the week.	4)	Hog weights increased by 0.6 pounds last week averaging 285.4 pounds, up 1.9 pounds over a year ago.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Close Mostly Lower; Hogs Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts remained mostly lower throughout Wednesday's trade, but the lean hog complex was able to rally throughout the day. No cash cattle trade was noted but packer interest could improve on Thursday. The week's export report will be released on Friday. December corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 337.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex drifted through Wednesday's trade hoping to get a feel for what the cash cattle market was going to do. No trade being reported, traders opted to remain cautious and let most of the contracts drift lower through closing. Both the October and December 2024 contracts were able to maintain a slightly higher position through the day's end, which likely was fueled by the day's stronger boxed beef prices. While traders find the boxed beef market's support helpful, what they're really curious about this week, continues to be the cash market. Asking prices are noted in the South at $189 to $190 but are still not established in the North. Given that packers and feedlot managers are going to go toe-to-toe again this week, trade could begin to develop tomorrow, but it could just as easily be delayed until Friday. October live cattle closed $0.32 higher at $187.05, December live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $186.60 and February live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $186.97. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- steady with a week and year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.30 ($319.13) and select up $0.28 ($292.37) with a movement of 145 loads (78.91 loads of choice, 44.95 loads of select, 6.55 loads of trim and 14.41 loads of ground beef).

THURDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers were able to get some cattle bought with time last week, it's going to be harder for feedlot managers to advance the cash market again this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle and fed cash cattle markets not lending much support through Wednesday's trade, and the nearby corn contracts closing $0.03 higher, it was easy for traders to let the feeder cattle contracts drift lower through Wednesday's end. October feeders closed $0.42 lower at $246.10, November feeders closed $0.97 lower at $245.50 and January feeders closed $0.87 lower at $243.35. Once again today's lower close wasn't from a lack of fundamental support in terms of the feeder cattle market in the countryside. Traders continue to remain skeptical of overly supporting the complex as they're fearful that the market could be overbought. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, feeder steers sold mostly $3.00 to $13.00 higher with instances of sharply higher prices across all the weight classes, compared to last week. Feeder heifers traded mostly $1.00 to $12.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 53%. The CME feeder cattle index 10/15/2024: down $0.44, $249.45.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex powered through Wednesday's market as traders seemed committed to recovering some of the position lost through Tuesday's close. December lean hogs closed $2.47 higher at $77.70, February lean hogs closed $1.80 higher at $81.10 and April lean hogs closed $1.25 higher at $85.05. With today's higher close, the market is again, up against resistance pressure which traders will be faced with early Thursday morning. There's a chance that if the week's export report is strong, that traders could break through the market's current resistant threshold. However, if fundamental support isn't adequate, then prices could just as easily fall lower yet again. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.63 with a weighted average price of $77.43 on 3,970 head. Pork cutouts totaled 311.19 loads with 286.32 loads of pork cuts and 24.88 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.45, $94.85. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 486,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 10/14/2024: down $0.08, $84.08.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers haven't shown much interest in the cash market this week it likely means that their needs are minimal.