Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Close $3.00 to $4.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was met with tremendous trade support following Christmas day as traders were pleased to see stronger boxed and pork cutout values. No significant trade volumes accumulated throughout the day in the fed cash cattle market -- but it is assumed that prices will again be higher this week when trade does finally break loose. March corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $13.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a rallying day for the live cattle complex as the market was given plenty of reasons to trade higher following the Christmas holiday. First of all, the jump in boxed beef prices was a delight for traders to note as demand continues to be a relentless factor in the market's rallying momentum. Secondly, it was also helpful that traders jumped on board with the notion of moving the contracts higher, but the feeder cattle market did set the tone as its contracts closed anywhere from $3.00 to $4.00 higher. And last but certainly not least, the belief that cash cattle prices will trade higher again this week is helpful as well. Bids of $190 live and $305 dressed were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no significant volumes traded throughout the day. Asking prices remain firm at $192 to $193 in the South and $310 in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.41 ($320.39) and select up $2.02 ($288.77) with a movement of 186 loads (94.22 loads of choice, 36.88 loads of select, 25.01 loads of trim and 30.11 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With the board's support, the fed cash cattle market should have no trouble trading higher again this week as feedlot managers are current and have plenty of leverage favoring their position.

FEEDER CATTLE:

In the marketplace there are good days, bad days, lackluster days, and there are also days like today that were utter dynamite for the complex. The feeder cattle market was once again the rallying force for the cattle sector as it helped propel its contracts $3.00 to $4.00 higher but also encouraged the live cattle market to trade higher too. And while we still sit in the "in-between time" in terms of the Christmas and New Year holidays, it's hard to say that the market's move was unjustified when the market's fundamentals are as strong as they are. It will be interesting to see in the days ahead how the complex handles the long-term resistance at $260 as the nearby contracts are trading at that threshold. January feeders closed $3.45 higher at $259.30, March feeders closed $4.50 higher at $259.50 and April feeders closed $4.17 higher at $260.02. The CME feeder cattle index 12/25/2024: down $2.28, $260.77.

LEAN HOGS:

With the added support of stronger pork cutout values -- thanks to significant retail buying following the Christmas holiday -- the lean hog complex was able to close steady to somewhat higher in most of the market's nearby contracts. February lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $84.20, April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $89.25 and June lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $101.55. In terms of individual pork cutouts there wasn't one cut that rallied notably more than any of the rest, but instead, today's cuts were a stable blend of mostly higher gains. But what was most significant in terms of the cutout report was seeing a whopping 528.77 loads moved -- which is somewhat expected after a holiday but is also a good sign of demand as well. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average price of $79.08 on 4,630 head. Pork cutouts totaled 528.77 loads with 480.12 loads of pork cuts and 48.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.07, $95.69. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week and a year ago. CME lean hog index 12/20/2024: up $0.40, $84.75.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have already fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Prices Jump Higher After the Christmas Holiday

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour as retailers are refilling their coolers after the holiday rush which has consequently pushed both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices higher. Bids of $190 live and $305 dressed have surfaced in Nebraska. March corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $11.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 29.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Christmas thankfully put a little cheer back into the live cattle complex as the market is confidently trading back above its 40-day moving average in the spot February contract, and it's likely that fed cash cattle will trade for higher money again this week. December live cattle are up $1.55 at $192.35, February live cattle are up $2.17 at $189.55 and April live cattle are up $2.30 at $191.85. If the market can sustain this momentum through the day's end and close above the 40-day moving average, it signs trader optimism and could help the market turn its direction back higher again. Some action has started to develop in the cash cattle market as bids have surfaced in Nebraska $190 and $305 dressed. Asking prices are firm at $192 to $193 live in the South and $310 dressed in the North. Packer interest could improve throughout the day but it's likely that trade could be delayed at this point until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.84 ($319.82) and select up $0.98 ($287.73) with a movement of 145 loads (66.62 loads of choice, 30.61 loads of select, 20.89 loads of trim and 26.56 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Talk about a wild way to come back from the Christmas holiday break! The feeder cattle complex isn't being shy about its momentum as it's pushing a bolstering $3.00 to $4.00 rally and is again close to resistance levels at $260 in the spot January contract. I'm skeptical of whether the market will be able to surpass the market's resistance given that it's not an ideal time to take on such market opposition. With the New Year's holiday just around the corner, the market doesn't fully shake the holiday fog until after the New Year. At which point everyone is fully back to work and ready to do business. From a fundamental sense, the market is prime to take on such a challenge, but again, I don't know if there's enough weight behind the market's momentum currently. January feeders are up $3.55 at $259.37, March feeders are up $4.15 at $259.15 and April feeders are up $3.80 at $259.65.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher as the market is thrilled to see a little better support in stronger pork cutout values. February lean hogs are down $0.02 at $84.35, April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $89.20 and June lean hogs are up $0.25 at $101.50. Thankfully the rib's $3.78 jump along with both the ham's $2.87 jump and the loin's $2.77 gain are off-setting the belly's $2.65 decline.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of submission issues. Pork cutouts total 410.96 loads with 374.26 loads of pork cuts and 36.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.31, $95.93.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Trading Activity Expected To Be Light

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade is expected today but it is uncertain what prices will do. The USDA did not release any reports on Tuesday keeping traders guessing what boxed beef prices did. The hope is that cash cattle will trade no worse than steady this week. However, the packers had purchased a significant amount of cattle ahead possibly leaving them in the position to hold the line on prices or even maintain lower bids due to next week also being a holiday week. It may be up to feedlots if they want to hold cattle over or move some even if it means steady to lower prices. Feeder cattle futures fell back hovering near the lows of the range and possibly testing support.

Hogs were mixed on Tuesday and much the same is expected today. Traders did not have the cash or cutout reports to provide direction. The expectation is for cash to be lower today but that will depend on whether the packers may want to position themselves ahead of another holiday-shortened week. Futures are expected to remain sideways possibly through the end of the year as holiday demand is assessed.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If cash cattle trade higher this week, futures may move back toward the highs over time.	1)	Cattle futures may drift sideways through the rest of the year with traders unwilling to establish long-term positions.
2)	Beef demand is expected to remain strong through the end of the year. Cattle supplies continue to remain tight.	2)	It is uncertain when the border will be reopened to cattle imports from Mexico. That would put initial pressure on the market as traders react to the news.
3)	The Hog and Pigs report has been digested and traders have adjusted to the numbers. This may provide confidence to buy into the market.	3)	Hogs need to continue to see strong demand or futures will break below technical support as further liquidation could take place.
4)	The Packers may be aggressive today as they may purchase hogs ahaed for another holiday-shortened week. Demand may be better than expected.	4)	Cash hogs may trade lower today as the packers may have much of the purchased finished for the week.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Dabble in Complex Vaguely

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex puttered through Tuesday's early close as traders paid the market little attention throughout the day. A single bid of $190 was offered in Kansas, but no cattle have sold just yet. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 390.08 points.

USDA is not updating its pages today (December 24) or on Christmas Day (December 25). The markets will also be closed on December 25, so regular DTN market commentary will resume on Thursday, December 26. Merry Christmas friends!

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mostly higher as traders hope that the market's fundamentals will prevail after the Christmas holiday especially in the cash market. December live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $190.80, February live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $187.37 and April live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $189.55. A single bid of $190 was offered throughout the day in Kansas but given that that price is below last week's weighted average, it's unlikely that any cattle get bought at that price. Feedlot managers have their eyes set on higher prices again this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 and remain unestablished still in the North.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers didn't get very many cattle bought last week it's likely that they'll have to participate in this week's cash market more than they'd like.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rounded out the day fully lower as trader interest remained nearly nonexistent throughout Christmas Eve. January feeders closed $0.37 lower at $255.85, March feeders closed $0.67 lower at $255.00 and April feeders closed $0.70 lower at $256.07. As I mentioned earlier, it's unlikely that the feeder cattle contracts will do much besides trade sideways until after the New Year holiday when regular feeder cattle sales resume in the countryside and buyers will likely be eager to fill their new orders.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the Christmas Eve Day mixed as the markets nearby contracts closed slightly lower while the deferred months maintained their higher position. February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $84.37, April lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $89.17 and June lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $101.25. The market continues to hope that its fundamentals will improve as consumer demand hasn't been reliable as of late.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers already bought 6,000 head in the cash market on Monday it's likely that they'll thinly participate in the market throughout the remainder of the week.