Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Complex Closes Mixed With Hope of Better Fundamental Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed as the lean hog contracts finally found some technical footing in the futures complex, the feeder cattle market rallied through the day's end, but the live cattle complex closed on both sides of steady. A handful of cattle sold in Nebraska at $290, but not enough traded to say that any sort of trend has been established for the week. December corn is up 3 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 139.53 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded in an uneasy manner throughout Wednesday's trade as the market would have liked to continue with its upward trend, but without seeing better demand from consumers and still not knowing exactly where cash cattle prices are going to fall -- traded allowed the market to end the day mixed. December live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $186.30, February live cattle closed $0.07 lower at $187.92 and April live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $189.70. The cash cattle market did see a little bit of trade develop in Nebraska at $290, but there wasn't enough volume traded to say that any sort of a weekly trend was established. Asking prices for cattle in the South remain firm at $187 to $188, and are still unestablished in the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 127,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.40 ($306.39) and select down $0.92 ($270.99) with a movement of 128 loads (88.96 loads of choice, 22.07 loads of select, 5.58 loads of trim and 11.36 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to $2.00 lower. Trade could begin to develop on Thursday, but with packers hoping to get cattle bought cheaper again this week, trade may not develop until Friday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex wasn't able to close fully higher, the feeder cattle market regained its courage ahead of the day's end and successfully rounded out the day on a stronger note. At first it appeared as though traders were skeptical of supporting the contracts anymore without seeing first what the fed cash cattle market was going to do this week, but low and behold, as the day traded onward traders seemed to soften to the idea of simply finding support in the market's strong demand in the countryside while allowed the contracts to close mildly higher. It wouldn't be surprising to see the market grow anxious again on Thursday if no cash cattle trade has developed as traders are not only looking to see what develops in the cash cattle market this week but are also likely going to begin to brace for Friday's Cattle on Feed report which is expected to show an increase on on-feed totals and placements. January feeders closed $0.32 higher at $252.32, March feeders closed $0.15 higher at $251.40 and April feeders closed $0.22 higher at $252.37. At Philip Livestock Auction in Philip, South Dakota, compared to last week feeder steers under 450 pounds sold steady, steers weighing 450 to 500 pounds traded $5.00 to $7.00 higher, steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold steady and steers weighing 600 to 650 pounds sold $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 11%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/19/2024: up $0.58, $254.26.

LEAN HOGS:

Thankfully the lean hog complex stumbled into some fundamental support which helped the market regain some footing in the futures complex. December lean hogs closed $0.97 higher at $80.52, February lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $84.47 and April lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $88.62. The midday carcass price was higher but by the day's close prices dipped lower yet again as the belly fell $5.31 and the rib dropped $4.54, to name the market's biggest day-over-day losses. Meanwhile, the cash market was able to close higher, but it's likely that with today's purchase of 3,125 head that packers won't be very aggressive in the cash market for the remainder of the week. December lean hogs closed $0.97 higher at $80.52, February lean hogs closed $1.60 higher at $84.47 and April lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $88.62. Pork cutouts total 292.40 loads with 251.32 loads of pork cuts and 41.08 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.08, $95.60. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 40,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/18/2024: down $0.40, $88.09.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have fulfilled the bulk of their cash needs for the week and won't participate much in the market until next week.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Hogs Jump Higher while Cattle Pause Their Rally

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is seeing mixed interest this morning as the lean hog contracts are successfully rallying into Wednesday's noon hour but the cattle contracts are trading slightly lower. More than anything the cattle complex hopes to find some better fundamental support to reassure traders of their recent move. December corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 65.17 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After trading substantially higher earlier in the week, the live cattle complex is now trading slightly lower as traders need to see followed-through fundamental support before they'll likely advance the contracts again. Not to mention when there's a Cattle on Feed report set to be released, traders usually pull back from the market ahead of seeing what the report yields. December live cattle are down $0.30 at $186.27, February live cattle are down $0.12 at $187.87 and April live cattle are up $0.30 at $189.72. The cash cattle market is still quiet without any bids currently being offered. Asking prices are noted in the South at $187 to $188, but are still not established in the North. Packer demand could improve throughout the day, but it's most likely that trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.48 ($308.31) and select down $0.99 ($270.92) with a movement of 64 loads (40.67 loads of choice, 10.97 loads of select, 5.38 loads of trim and 6.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The momentum that helped drive the feeder cattle contracts higher has simmered down as trades are now looking around needing fundamental support to give them reassurance in their recent move. January feeders are down $0.05 at $251.95, March feeders are down $0.20 at $251.05 and April feeders are down $0.10 at $252.05. Even though buyer demand is still excellent throughout the countryside for both feeders and calves, it's likely that traders will remain cautious until they see what Friday's Cattle on Feed report yields.

LEAN HOGS:

The cattle contracts may be trading in a slightly lower manner, but the lean hog complex finally attracted traders which has helped propel the contracts into Wednesday's noon hour. Also helping push the contracts along is the higher note in pork cutout values, which is mostly derived from the belly's $8.28 jump, and the picnic's $6.96 jump. December lean hogs are up $1.05 at $80.60, February lean hogs are up $1.82 at $84.70 and April lean hogs are up $1.75 at $88.85.

The projected lean hog index for 11/19/2024 is down $0.26 at $87.83, and the actual index for 11/18/2024 is down $0.40 at $88.09. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, up $3.16 with a weighted average price of $85.16, ranging from $78.00 to $86.00 on 2,171 head and a five-day rolling average of $84.51. Pork cutouts total 137.23 loads with 112.02 loads of pork cuts and 25.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.29, $96.97.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Strength in Cattle Futures May Temper

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle again were the leaders Tuesday, but live cattle did not lag far behind. There has not been a significant change in boxed beef with prices mixed. Choice gained $1.51 while Select declined $3.54. It has been somewhat surprising that traders were as aggressive as they have been over the past three days. The anticipation of this week is for cash to be no better than steady with the potential for lower cash as the packers have some cattle already purchased ahead. Dressed cattle weights averaged 924.1 pounds last week, down 3.2 pounds from the previous week, but remain at record high levels. Weights are expected to decrease through the winter but still remain large. The Cattle on Feed report estimates are for on-feed Nov. 1 at 99.9%. October placements are estimated at 103.3%. Marketings in October are estimated at 105.1%.

Hog futures closed mixed Tuesday with pressure through the June contract and later contracts posting gains. There was no specific reason for this divergence as the gains and losses were minimal. However, the nearby contracts continued to struggle at the new lows on Tuesday, indicating the recent downtrend remains intact. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed further cash weakness with a decline of $0.83. Higher cash had been expected, but not realized. The packers should be more aggressive Wednesday as they increase ownership. Pork cutouts took a hit with values declining by $2.39. This may keep pressure on futures Wednesday as there is concern the strong demand may be tempering.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle pushed above technical resistance, which may increase the buying interest of traders.	1)	Traders may temper their exuberance in cattle futures as they look ahead to the Cattle on Feed report to be released Friday. The placement number will keep traders cautious as it has been notoriously bearish.
2)	Feeder cattle continued to support the cattle complex as traders turned bullish on cattle supplies. Feedlots are active buyers in the country, finding continued tight supplies.	2)	Feeder cattle have had three strong days with liquidation generally running its course over that time. Futures could drift lower through the end of the week.
3)	Hog futures have corrected their overbought status and may find renewed buying interest if the funds want to defend their long positions.	3)	Hog futures have been in a downtrend and the lack of support from cash or cutouts may keep pressure on the market.
4)	The packers should be more aggressive Wednesday as they still need to purchase hogs to fulfill their slaughter needs.	4)	Fund traders hold record-long futures positions and further weakness could trigger increased liquidation.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Continue to Dive Into Cattle Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another rip-roaring rallying day for the cattle complex as traders continue to dive into both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets which is helping propel the contracts higher despite the market's fundamentals being somewhat exhausted. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex closed lower yet again as traders hope to see better market fundamentals. December corn is down 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 146.03 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another powerful day for the live cattle contracts as the continued support of traders allowed the market to close anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 higher. It was especially exciting to see the spot February contract close above the market's 40-day moving average, as that hasn't happened since the commodity market meltdown in early August. December live cattle closed $2.47 higher at $186.57, February live cattle closed $2.02 higher at $188.00, and April live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $290 dressed sales happened in Eastern Nebraska at $290, but the real kicker of those sales was that they're committed for the week of December 9. It's obvious that packers want to continue to hold the cash market from gaining momentum and trading higher, which they're trying to manage by purchasing cattle with time and keeping enough supply around them. Asking prices are noted in the South at $187 to $188 but are still not established for the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.51 ($308.79) and select down $3.54 ($271.91) with a movement of 135 loads (67.50 loads of choice, 44.53 loads of select, 4.15 loads of trim and 18.39 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. With next week being a holiday-shortened schedule, it's unlikely that packers will buy aggressively this week as throughput will be lighter next week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

As time passed the support of traders only grew sweeter and sweeter and by the day's close, the complex successfully ended the day at levels not last seen since before the commodity market meltdown in early August. January feeders closed $2.50 higher at $252.00, March feeders closed $2.62 higher at $251.25 and April feeders closed $2.60 higher at $252.15. As traders continue to flock into the feeder cattle market, its upward potential seems somewhat unbridled at this point as traders have boldly dived into the complex despite the market's fundamentals (besides feeder cattle demand, hence the CME feeder cattle index closing above $253) not being of much help. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded mostly steady. Steer and heifer calves over 450 pounds sold steady, those under 450 pounds traded $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 39%. The CME feeder cattle index 11/18/2024: up $1.06, $253.68.

LEAN HOGS:

With fundamental support being hard to come by in the lean hog market right now, it again comes as no surprise that the complex rounded out the day mostly lower. The market's nearby contracts closed lower but some of the furthest deferred months were able to close mildly higher. December lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $79.55, February lean hogs closed $0.40 lower at $82.87 and April lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $87.10. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.83 with a weighted average price of $82.49 on 5,365 head. Pork cutouts totaled 393.37 loads with 330.97 loads of pork cuts and 62.40 loads of pork cuts. Pork cutout values: down $2.39, $94.68. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 11/15/2024: down $0.78, $88.49.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were slightly more aggressive in today's cash market, but it's likely that they still need more hogs.