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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Regress, Lean Hogs Stronger

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle contracts trended higher through most of the day, but near closing the complex sank lower. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex didn't bat an eye at how the cattle contracts were trading as cash prices remained elevated through closing and the board held onto its strength through the end of the day. Hog prices closed $0.14 higher with a weighted average of $28.45 on 10,406 head. September corn is up 12 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 217.08 points and NASDAQ is up 184.62 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
As the June contract expired and attention completely rolls to August and October for nearby contracts, it's painful yet again to see where fat cattle are trading. Earlier Tuesday, the board couldn't seem to care less what the bearish fundamentals were and traded significantly higher. As time progressed, reality sunk in and contracts closed modestly lower. August live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $96.27, October live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $99.72 and December live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $103.65. There was another round of light trade in the North with cattle selling from $148 to $155, already $7.00 lower than last week's weighted average in Nebraska, all while the South has yet to trade cattle. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head, 1,000 head above a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.39 ($206.97) and select down $0.81 ($199.90) with a movement of 174 loads (94.26 loads of choice, 26.20 loads of select, 7.28 loads of trim and 45.95 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to lower. Seeing cash prices weaken upwards of $7.00 in only the first two trading days of the week is brutally painful for the cash market. The rest of the week will trade either steady to lower keeping in the same trend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts were ambitious early in the day, but as time progressed, the complex lost its momentum and closed lower alongside the live cattle contracts. August feeders closed $0.65 at $132.85, September feeders closed $0.90 lower at $133.37 and October feeders closed $1.02 lower at $134.10. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, steer calves sold steady, while heifer calves sold steady to $3.00 higher. Meanwhile, yearling steers sold steady to $3.00 strong and yearling heifers were considered steady. Demand was good especially given the big run, upwards of 10,786 head sold. Come this Thursday, July 2, the auction barn will host the Big Bang Sale, which is anticipated to display another phenomenal offering, and feeder cattle prices could be as good as last week's specialty sales were. The CME feeder cattle index 6/29/2020: down $0.26, $129.42.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was aggressive in its rally throughout the day, and with cash prices even trading higher, the market saw an opportunity to catch a jump forward. August lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $49.02, October lean hogs closed $1.92 higher at $49.35 and December lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $51.72. Pork cutouts total 439.50 loads with 388.03 loads of pork cuts and 51.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.09, $63.12. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 469,000 head, 12,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/26/2020: unchanged, $45.23.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Packers could pay the same price that they did Tuesday for hogs later in the week, given that it wasn't an astronomical jump. With the shortened week, they may need to buy a little more aggressively to cover for the weekend.


#completeherdhealth

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Push Upwards

General Comments
Pushing forward into the noon hour, livestock contracts keep their vigorous pace and trend higher in all three markets. Cash hogs are trading slightly higher, but the cash cattle market is undecided how where exactly prices should land for the week. Heading into the afternoon it wouldn't be surprising to see more interest arise. September corn is up 11 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $4.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 52.27 points and NASDAQ is up 136.79 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts have jumped on the bandwagon of trading higher even though cash cattle trade is bound to develop lower again this week. August live cattle are up $0.37 at $96.85, October live cattle are up $0.42 at $100.45 and December live cattle are up $0.55 at $104.35. Some cattle have been bid on in Iowa for $96 live and $152 dressed, and in Nebraska for $153 to $155. Trade has been sparse thus far through the week, but more trade could develop through the afternoon.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.23 ($208.13) and select up $0.76 ($201.47) with a movement of 99 loads (41.42 loads of choice, 12.45 loads of select, 6.76 loads of trim and 38.33 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts played hard ball all throughout Monday but have came around to trading higher through part of Tuesday's early hours. August feeders are up $0.17 at $133.67, September feeders are up $0.45 at $134.65 and October feeders are up $0.22 at $135.35. Upon chatting with some country feeder cattle buyers, most are apprehensive about sticking their necks out there too far on calves right now despite cheap corn and last week's stronger sale averages.
LEAN HOGS
Lean hog contracts are taking Tuesday's debut with stride as the entire complex trades higher and the nearby contracts are seeing over $1.00 gains through the months of October 2020 to February 2021. The spot July contract is facing some pressure but with the contract set to expire in fifteen days, traders are more interested in seeing what's happening in the upcoming months. July lean hogs are down $0.22 at $45.10, August lean hogs are up $0.37 at $48.82 and October lean hogs are up $1.25 at $48.70.
The projected lean hog index for 6/29/2020 is up $0.01 at $45.24, and the actual index for 6/26/2020 is steady at $45.23. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.03 with a weighted average of $28.34, ranging from $24.00 to $30.13 on 5,191 head and a five-day rolling average of $28.61. Pork cutouts total 234.70 loads with 214.95 loads of pork cuts and 19.75 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.61, $63.60.


#completeherdhealth

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Price Support Likely Surrounding End-of-Month Position Adjustments

General Comments:
Following the pattern of the past few weeks, cash cattle trade started to develop Monday once again. Although overall volume was light in all areas and may not be enough to give a good market test, but Monday prices were steady to lower than last week's average. The few dressed deals in the North ranged from $152 to $155 per cwt, with live deals at $92 per cwt. If the market continues to hold at or near these price levels, this would indicate the first week since the COVID-19 pandemic has started where cash prices are below front-month futures prices. The erosion of basis levels over the past couple of months has been one of the most disappointing factors in the recent cattle market shifts. Weak basis levels could continue through most of the summer based on the backlogged cattle supplies and concern that beef demand may still struggle to show significant increases through the end of the year. Futures trade is expected steady-to-moderately higher with limited trade volume trickling into the complex as traders focus on end-of-quarter adjustments. The Fourth of July holiday demand could create a much needed spark in beef demand to start the third quarter. Price ranges in live cattle and feeder cattle appear to remain stuck in a narrow sideways pattern with little new market direction expected in the coming days, which would break out of the current pattern. Tuesday's slaughter is expected at 120,000 head.
Traders entered the week looking for needed market stability, which helped to post narrow gains in all contracts through the end of trade Monday. This same focus is expected most of the Tuesday session with traders appearing to be more focused on adjusting positions in front of month and quarter end, rather than searching for any significant or new market direction at this point. With markets closed Friday in observance of the Fourth of July holiday, trade volume is expected to remain sluggish through most of the week with traders already adjusting to lighter schedules as this is the first major holiday after restrictions have been lifted. Although activity levels are still nothing compared to normal Independence Day celebrations, there is hope of returning to a more normal holiday routine with strong meat demand over the weekend. With the fourth of July landing on the weekend this year, there could be additional consumer buying extended through the whole weekend. This has the potential to spark renewed pork buying as retail price levels have moderated over the past couple weeks from previous levels. Mixed trade is likely in the lean hog futures complex as the morning progresses, although the underlying tone of the market still remains bearish, the potential to add limited support to nearby and deferred contract prices could help sustain gains at the end of the month. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to 50 cents higher with most bids expected steady to weak. Slaughter Tuesday is expected at 471,000 head. No Saturday runs are expected due to the Fourth of July holiday.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Light-to-moderate gains in boxed beef values Monday is helping to create some market stability following consistent price pressure over the last few weeks. The ability to establish support levels in cutout values will likely spark renewed buying in wholesale and retail levels during early July.
1)
Cash cattle trade started to develop Monday, posting even lower cash prices. This creates additional concern that further market erosion is likely in the coming weeks as basis levels continue to erode.
2)
Traders are focusing on the potential for moderate-to-strong beef demand over the Fourth of July Holiday weekend. A strong shift in consumer buying as beef prices have moved back from previously escalated levels could help to offset traditional demand pressure typically seen through the rest of the summer.
2)
Fourth of July is traditionally the last big push for beef demand for the summer. This is creating concerns that beef and cattle prices may continue to erode lower given the burdensome amount of cattle needing to be processed over the coming weeks and months.
3)
Lean hog futures continue to search for long-term support levels. The firm gains in nearby lean hog contracts Monday is creating the hope that renewed buying will develop through early July.
3)
Pork cutout values eroded lower Monday as concerns of sluggish post-holiday demand could put additional pressure on hog prices as well as overall pork cutout values. The limited demand in the food service industry will likely continue to keep pork values subdued.
4)
Continued strong slaughter rates are seen through the end of the month. This will continue to add consistency to the hog market as further slaughter disruptions continue to be a major concern and more COVID-19 cases develop in many areas.
4)
Limited packer activity expected over the holiday weekend with no Saturday slaughter expected, and Friday and Monday schedules expected to be reduced. This will greatly reduce the overall number of hogs slaughtered this week.



#completeherdhealth

Monday, June 29, 2020

Monday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Livestock Contracts Close Surprisingly Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:
Monday was better than initially assumed as all three livestock futures markets were able to close the day stronger. Holiday weeks are typically problematic as trade is off-balanced and traders are usually checked out for a long weekend with little interest in really moving the market. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.18 with a weighted average of $28.48 on 6,201 head. July corn is up 9 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $1.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 580.25 points and NASDAQ is up 116.93 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts came out of the gate strong Monday and showed significant interest in trading higher, although they fought some resistance throughout the morning. The entire complex closed higher, ranging from $0.30 to $0.85 higher. August live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $96.47, October live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $100.05 and December live cattle closed $0.70 higher at $103.77. Some light cash trade developed in Iowa at $153 and some cattle also sold in Texas at $91 to $92. There wasn't enough trade to develop trends for the week and cash cattle interest will most likely pick up more come Tuesday. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 2,000 head more than last week and 2,000 head more than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.19 ($208.36) and select up $1.86 ($200.71) with a movement of 150 loads (65.67 loads of choice, 24.77 loads of select, 24.45 loads of trim and 35.18 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. Holiday weeks always throw a kink into the cash cattle market because packers either have to run and jump to get cattle bought or they sit back idly and let the week pass. Knowing there are ample amounts of cattle around, packers will probably pick up some cattle here and there with the most obvious trend for the week continued pressure on the cash cattle market.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle contracts turned around after the noon hour and closed $0.20 to $0.90 stronger. August feeders closed $0.90 higher at $133.50, September feeders closed $0.50 higher at $134.27 and October feeders closed $0.40 higher at $135.12. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, feeder steers sold steady to $4.00 higher compared to last week, and feeder heifers sold $2.00 to $6.00 higher. Demand for feeder cattle was notably strong and steer and heifer calves were called steady to $3.00 higher. There is concern about drought in that that area as strong winds and hot temperatures continue. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 6/26/2020: up $0.22, $130.04.
LEAN HOGS:
Even with last week's bearish USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the market closed fully higher Monday afternoon. July lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $45.37, August lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $48.45 and October lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $47.42. Even with a slightly weaker cash hog trade, it's positive to see hog weights decreasing in efforts to help additional pressure from building. For the week ended June 13, hog live weights were down three pounds at 289 pounds and dressed weights were down two pounds at 216 pounds. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 468,000 head -- 18,000 head more than a week ago and 12,000 head more than a year ago. Pork cutouts totaled 431.68 loads with 389.81 loads of pork cuts and 41.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.74, $65.21. The CME lean hog index 6/25/2020: up $0.36, $45.23.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to slightly lower. A modest regression is expected to continue as the sheer number of hogs available is plentiful.




#completeherdhealth

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Some Positivity for Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

General Comments
Livestock contracts are trading here and there, without a major consensus of where the market should align its protectory for the week at. Throughout the day the live cattle and lean hog contracts have toyed with the idea of trading higher, but the feeder cattle contracts are adamant about bowing lower and continue to scale back. July corn is up 6 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $0.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 446.29 points and NASDAQ is up 90.88 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Despite the ginormous backlog of cattle continuing to be an issue for the industry, the live cattle complex is trading higher into the noon hour. August live cattle are up $0.32 at $96.35, October live cattle are up $0.40 at $99.87 and December live cattle are up $0.52 at $103.60. The week is anticipated to be mostly quiet as slaughter will mostly likely be smaller than last week's kill with the holiday weekend. New showlists appear to be higher in Kansas, somewhat lower in Nebraska/Colorado, and lower in Texas. Bids and asking prices have not yet been established throughout the countryside.
USDA National Weekly Direct Slaughter Cattle - Negotiated Purchases shared that packers bought 92,334 head last week. Of that 89,875 head are committed for delivery in the next two weeks while the remaining 2,459 head will be delivered in the next 15 to 30 days.
Boxed beef prices are up: choice up $2.03 ($209.20) and select up $1.49 ($200.34) with a movement of 79 loads (32.56 loads of choice, 12.67 loads of select, 8.04 loads of tri and 25.68 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts are far from interested in trading higher as the complex has traded lower throughout the entire morning. After last week's push to see stronger prices throughout the countryside, the complex will most likely coast through this week without too much excitement. Seeing that some cow/calf country is getting rain is a positive win for producers as many worry that hay prices are going to be up from last year's prices. August live cattle are down $0.60 at $132.00, September live cattle are down $0.72 at $133.05 and October live cattle are down $0.72 at $134.00.
LEAN HOGS
Surprisingly enough the lean hogs complex is supporting some nearby excitement Monday morning. July lean hog are up $0.15 at $45.42, August lean hogs are up $0.82 at $48.95 and October lean hogs are up $0.65 at $47.65. Even though slaughter is anticipated to be slightly lower this week with the 4th of July weekend, packers were aggressive Monday morning and upped cash prices nearly $0.50 -- but with pork prices showing strength throughout different times of last week and up $3.58 at midday Monday, packers have incentive to keep working.
The projected lean hog index is unavailable due to packer submission problems. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.41 with a weighted average of $28.94, ranging from $24.00 to $30.13 on 4,907 head and a five-day rolling average of $28.67. Pork cutouts total 222.02 loads with 192.19 loads of pork cuts and 29.83 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.58, $69.53.



#completeherdhealth

Monday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Sluggish Trade Volume Expected During Holiday Week

General Comments:
Both sides of the cash market are expected to remain slow to show early-week developments following the continued market tumble in cash prices last week. Even though trade has continued to develop nearly every day of the week, last week's trade showed the narrowest trade ranges in over a month, creating potential consistency even though prices have continued to tumble lower. Trade last week ranged from $93 to $97 per cwt live and $152 to $156 dressed. As slaughter capacity levels move back to a more normal range with the inventory of market-ready cattle still burdensome on the market, the previous cash basis premium has quickly evaporated. August live cattle futures have held within a narrow sideways trading pattern over the last month, remaining well confined within a $1.50 per cwt trading range from $95 to $96.50 per cwt. The ability to hold current support levels above $95 per cwt even with the recent cash market pressure could help to bring some much needed buyer support to the market over the coming days and weeks. Cattle slaughter is expected to continue to remain strong, although overall weekly numbers are expected to dip through the week with limited Friday and Saturday kills due to vacation schedules. Monday slaughter is expected at 120,000 head.
Follow-through pressure Monday is likely in several contracts following sharp near-limit losses in most remaining 2020 contracts on Friday. With last week's bearish Hogs and Pigs report focusing on larger-than-expected market hog supplies available to industry, combined with struggling pork values and sluggish demand growth during the summer has created significant market pressure through the entire complex. Last week's market shift lower, quickly moved August and October futures well below the $50 per cwt threshold. This has created technical pressure in all nearby contracts that is likely to spark follow-through liquidation through the near future. Early-week hog slaughter is expected to remain strong, but the upcoming holiday will quickly limit production levels through the last couple days of the week and evaporate most Saturday runs. This will likely create even more concerns surrounding the ability keep the hog complex current, although the falling average hog weights over the last few weeks continues to limit the amount of pork being backed up in the system. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to 50 cents higher with most bids expected steady to weak. Slaughter Monday is expected at 471,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Firm market premiums continue to hold in spring 2021 contract months with April futures trading at a $12 per cwt premium to current August futures. This focuses the attention on tighter long-term cattle supplies.
1)
Cash cattle prices continue to show moderate-to-strong pressure with prices falling $5 to $7 per cwt last week. This has quickly eroded the previously strong basis opportunities in the market.
2)
Active feeder cattle buying is being reported at steady-to-higher money with feeders looking for opportunities for market-ready cattle in early 2021. The continued pressure in grain markets, reducing feed costs is adding to the recent buyer support.
2)
Burdensome levels of market-ready cattle will continue to plague the cattle market through the rest of the summer and well into fall months. This could add even more price pressure cash and futures prices in the near future.
3)
Continued focus on reduced long-term herd size due to reduced farrowing intentions and less hogs kept back for breeding purposes is helping to spark renewed premiums in summer 2021 contract months.
3)
Sharp losses last week in hog futures continues to create technical weakness in all nearby lean hog trade. This is reestablishing long-term support levels below $40 per cwt based on recent market pressure in the complex.
4)
Active packers continue to chip away at the large amount of market hogs available to the market. This is expected to continue to erode overall hog weights going into the month of July.
4)
The upcoming Fourth of July holiday is expected to significantly cut weekly slaughter rates, which have been dependent on a strong Saturday slaughter over the past several weeks. Significant pressure in harvest numbers on Friday and Saturday will impact the ability to keep market-ready hogs moving through the system in an efficient manner.

#completecalfcare



Friday, June 26, 2020

Friday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Softer through the Livestock Markets

GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex more or less checked out Thursday afternoon after feeder cattle sales were finished and the hogs and pigs report was released. Friday traded mostly uneventful through the day, seeming to look for the weekend and without much interest. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.18 with a weighted average of $28.48 on 6,201 head. July corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $3.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 730.05 points and NASDAQ is down 259.78 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: June live unchanged, August live cattle up $0.63; August feeder cattle up $0.05, September feeder cattle down $0.10; July lean hogs down $3.18, August lean hogs down $4.68.

LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle closed lower Friday afternoon with nearby contracts faring better than deferred. Unfortunately, as the industry grapples with knowing that there is a surplus of cattle lining the bunks of feedlots, cash cattle prices are bound to drop lower. August live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $96.02, October live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $99.47 and December live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $103.07. This week was rough on the cash cattle market as this week's trade ranged from $152 to $156 dressed in the North ($5.00 to $11.00 cheaper than a week ago) and live cattle traded for $93 to $97 ($5.00 cheaper than a week ago) in the South. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, steady with a week ago and 2,000 head shy of a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 82,000 head, 23,000 head more than a week and year ago.

This week's kill is estimated at an enormous 680,000 head, which is 3.7% greater than a week ago and 1.5% greater than a year ago. The USDA shared that the last time cattle slaughter exceeded 680,000 head was for the week ending March 28, 2020, which totaled exactly 684,835 head. Slaughter speeds are anticipated to be higher due to next week being the Fourth of July holiday, as plants know that next week's production may be limited.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.09 ($207.17) and select down $1.08 ($198.85) with a movement of 135 loads (61.28 loads of choice, 18.29 loads of select, 22.53 loads of trim and 32.88 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Lower. With looming supply burdening the industry, cash cattle prices are going to get worse before the get better.

FEEDER CATTLE:
Cheap corn and the ruthless will of a cattle feeder's heart rallied feeder cattle sales this week. The two large sales that took place Thursday throughout the countryside surprised most as prices were easily $6.00 to $12.00 stronger than anticipated. Feeder cattle contracts closed lower Friday afternoon, with deferred contracts taking a bigger hit than nearby contracts. August feeders closed $0.65 lower at $132.60, September feeders closed $0.72 lower at $133.77 and October feeders closed $0.72 lower at $134.72. The market closed above both the 40-day moving average ($129.98) and the 100-day moving average ($127.00).

The USDA reported that for South Dakota's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold steady to $2.00 higher with a few instances of $3.00 to $5.00 higher on light fleshed heifers. Demand was good for yearlings and heifers as well. The CME feeder cattle index 6/25/2020: up $0.22, $130.04.

LEAN HOGS:
Thursday's bearish quarterly hogs and pigs report didn't help the complex whatsoever come Friday. Lean hog contracts scaled lower closing $1.15 to $3.52 lower throughout the entire complex. July lean hogs closed $1.65 lower at $45.27, August lean hogs closed $3.20 lower at $48.12 and October lean hogs closed $3.52 lower at $47.00.

Pork cutouts totaled 482.18 loads with 436.98 loads of pork cuts and 45.20 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.90, $65.95. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head,15,000 head greater than a week ago and 19,000 head greater than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be 323,000 head. This week's hog kill is estimated at 2,641,000 head, which is 2.1% greater than a week ago and a substantial 10.7% above a year ago. The CME lean hog index 6/24/2020: down $0.23, $44.87.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. With supply being bountiful, cash prices are going to suffer as packers won't have to work at getting hogs.


#completeherdhealth

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Coasting Through the Day

General Comments
Heading into Friday's noon hour the industry seems to be taking a deep breath out slowly after all of what Thursday processed - the board was higher; the hogs and pigs report came out and the feeder cattle market was avidly tested. Friday's markets aren't near as ambitious as all three livestock contracts are trading lower and cash markets are either lower (hogs) or extremely idle (cattle). July corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 643.28 points and NASDAQ is down 196.84 points.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle contracts are kicking the can lower down the road as cash cattle prices sit mostly quiet thus far through the day. August live cattle are down $0.37 at $95.70, October live cattle are down $0.37 at $99.27 and December live cattle are down $0.42 at $103.12. Packers have inquired on some cattle throughout the countryside, but bids are scarce indicating that the bulk of this week's trade is down. There has been a moderate amount of trade transpire this week with cattle in the North selling for $152 to $156, and cattle in the South selling from $93 to $97.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.68 ($207.58) and select down $0.17 ($199.76) with a movement of 95 loads (37.29 loads of choice, 12.08 loads of select, 20.40 loads of trim and 24.79 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
After Thursday's highly anticipated run of feeder cattle sales, feeder cattle contracts coast into Friday feeling an immense amount of pressure relieved now that those sales are over. Feeder cattle prices were far higher than most assumed given the current challenges the industry is facing. Feeders saw an opportunity to buy exceptional calves and liked how corn prices were in their favor! Heading into the second half of Friday, feeder cattle contracts are lower and have traded mostly lower throughout the day. August feeders are down $0.55 at $132.70, September feeders are down $0.65 at $133.85 and October feeders are down $0.80 at $134.65.
Superior's Sale Averages: http://www.superiorlivestock.com/…
LEAN HOGS
Lean hog contracts are feeling even more pressure after Thursday's hogs and pigs report solidified the fact that the industry will struggle with the built-up supply of readily available hogs for quiet some time. July lean hogs are down $1.55 at $45.37, August lean hogs are down $3.47 at $47.85 and October lean hogs are down $3.42 at $47.10. As Thursday's report came as another bitter reminder of how COVID-19 has affected the livestock markets; there is some comfort in knowing that the industry is against instead of dancing around the unknown.
The projected lean hog index for 6/25/2020 is up $0.36 at $45.23, and the actual index for 6/24/2020 is down $0.22 at $44.87. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.17 with a weighted average of $28.49, ranging from $24.00 to $30.00 on 5,856 head and a five-day rolling average of $28.55. Pork cutouts total 274.73 loads with 243.76 loads of pork cuts and 30.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.93, $65.98.


#completecalfcare

Friday Morning Livestock Market Summary - Hog Market Pressure Expected Following Hogs and Pigs Report

General Comments:
Cash cattle is expected to have set the market range for the week with trade over the last couple of days hovering around $95 to $97 per cwt live basis and $152 to $156 per cwt. This is generally steady to $2 per cwt lower than midweek levels, and $5 to $8 per cwt lower than last week's price levels. There could be some clean-up trade on Friday, but it is unlikely that any significant developments in price levels will develop. Compared to the past few weeks, cash cattle prices have remained in a relatively narrow trading range, which is encouraging. The fact that prices are not swinging within a $10 to $20 price everyday means that some additional cash market structure is starting to return to the volatile cash market of the last two months. This will allow feeders to get a better feel for where markets are moving rather than having to wait until next week when price averages are released. Futures trade is expected mixed early Friday morning. The underlying firmness in feeder cattle futures driven by stronger cash feeder cattle sales through the week as well as increasing overall open interest building through late June is expected to help build on support levels at or above the $96 per cwt price levels in spot month August contracts. Friday slaughter is expected at 118,000 head.
Early movement in lean hog trade Friday morning is expected to be focused on the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Price pressure is likely to quickly develop in nearby contracts as bearish overall hog numbers compared to pre-report estimates are likely to put pressure on most 2020 contract months. Total hog supplies as of June 1 are 5% above year-ago levels. The expectation that packer shutdowns and a growing hog supply going into the COVID-19 pandemic makes it obvious that hog numbers are actively increasing. But the fact that hogs over 120 pounds have seen the largest increase in numbers will not only create concerns of a backlogged hog supply over the near term, but well into fall. The reduction of hogs kept for breeding as of June 1 and reduced farrowing intentions is expected to cause long-term support with a smaller hog herd heading into 2021. This may spark moderate-to-firm buyer support in deferred contracts Friday. Cash hog prices are expected $1 lower to 50 cents higher with most bids expected steady to weak. Slaughter Friday is expected at 468,000 head. Saturday runs are expected at 309,000 head.
BULL SIDEBEAR SIDE
1)
Active cash feeder cattle prices are seen through late-week activity with increased buyer support in the active video auctions on Thursday. This support in cash markets continues to focus on long-term support expected to develop in the cattle complex through late fall winter months.
1)
Cash cattle prices continue to erode lower through the week, with the established market trend showing a $5 to $8 per cwt price drop from last week's levels. The continued pressure in cash cattle markets could continue as boxed beef prices are still unsupported.
2)
August live cattle futures are holding well above short-term support levels of $95.12 per cwt, creating the potential for follow-through buyer support to build through the next couple of weeks.
2)
Continued concerns of summer beef demand are still creating uncertainty through the entire market. The volatile price movement in wholesale and retail price levels over the last three months have caused many consumers to remain cautious about stepping back into the market to purchase needed supplies. Sluggish food service demand is still expected to slow demand recovery over the near future.
3)
Cash hog prices have started to firm through the end of the week with prices focusing on increased packer demand. This is likely to create more need for packers to get into a more traditional routine of buying hogs, putting more emphasis on cash market movement through the end of June and early July.
3)
Hog numbers increased 5% over year-ago levels in Thursday's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. This is well above pre-report estimates and is likely to create moderate-to-active pressure during early Friday trade.
4)
Farrowing intentions in June through November are expected to be significantly reduced with expected farrowing levels to be 95% of year-ago levels. This will help to contract the overall herd size, leading to tighter supplies through most of 2021.
4)
Increased numbers of hogs weighing 120 to 179 pounds and 180 pounds and higher focused on burdensome supply of hogs ready for market over the next several months. This will continue to put pressure on prices not only in August futures, but will carry the bearish market trend through most of 2020.



#completecalfcare

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Contracts Look for Higher Prices

General Comments
Livestock contracts are battling the obvious pressures of the market to trade higher through Thursday and the lean hog and feeder cattle contracts are doing so but the live cattle contracts are fighting some added resistance. It helps that the cash hog market was higher Thursday morning and that the two feeder cattle specialty sales (Northern and Superior's Sales) are underway. Heading into the afternoon pork participants are ready to get their eyes on the latest quarterly hogs and pigs report which comes out Thursday afternoon. July corn is down 7 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 51.58 points and NASDAQ is up 37.81 points.
LIVE CATTLE
The live cattle market is trading on opposite ends of the spectrum as the board moves higher while cash cattle prices continue to crumble. The biggest blessing of the morning is that the feeder cattle market seems to be largely unaffected by the cash cattle market's weakness. August live cattle are down $0.02 at $96.30, October live cattle are up $0.17 at $99.80 and December live cattle are up $0.30 at $103.65. Thus far there has been only a light trade in Texas at $95 -- $6.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Asking prices hold at $98 to $100 in the South while cattle in the North are priced at $160 dressed.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.75 ($207.94) and select down $1.11 ($200.58) with a movement of 123 loads (65.08 loads of choice, 17.68 loads of select, 21.97 loads of trim and 18.53 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
It's a feeder cattle junkie's dream this Thursday ... Even though there are enough reasons in the marketplace to be as bearish as the scrooge himself, the live cattle market is trending higher, feeder cattle contracts are higher and the two specialty sales taking place right now on Northern's Livestock Video Auction and Superior's Livestock Auction are faring considerably well -- I will report prices once the sales are complete. August feeders are up $0.95 at $133.85, September feeders are up $0.80 at $134.97 and October feeders are up $0.75 at $135.92.
LEAN HOGS
Lean hog contracts are rallying into Thursday's noon hour as pork demand is strong through the retail sector and packers are playing a little extra for cash hogs Thursday morning. July lean hogs are up $0.72 at $46.65, August lean hogs are up $0.15 at $51.40 and October lean hogs are up $0.12 at $50.35. Heading into the afternoon all hog participants will be watching closely for the quarterly hogs and pigs report which will debut insight into the U.S. herds since COVID-19.
The projected lean hog index for 6/24/2020 is down $0.22 at $44.87 and the actual index for 6/23/2020 is down $0.07 at $45.10. Hog prices are higher on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.28 with a weighted average of $28.77, ranging from $24.00 to $31.50 on 5,461 head and a five-day rolling average of $28.56. Pork cutouts total 163.01 loads with 126.56 loads of pork cuts and 36.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.92, $68.60.


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